Category Archives: Uncategorized

Community of Elders

Childhood in a community of elders

Yesterday, in Ancestral Call, I detailed my family history. I was born into a close-knit rural community, swaddled by family, extended family and a broader community which shared the same values. Both my grandparents living within a few miles of one another, and several aunts, uncles and cousins lived nearby. I had the support of this community during my formative years.

I grew up believing everything is possible:

You can be anybody you want to be,

You can love whomever you will

You can travel any country where your heart leads

And know I will love you still

You can live by yourself, you can gather friends around,

You can choose one special one

And the only measure of your words and your deeds

Will be the love you leave behind when you're done.

Making the most of rural life

One of the drawbacks of rural living is that there isn't much to do. There was one movie theater within 30 miles, few restaurants, and few other options for entertainment. Most people in rural areas of Wisconsin will spend their free time in the woods, in the tavern, or at home with their families. My grandfather and my father didn't drink, so they didn't spend much time at the local taverns, thankfully.

The one bar activity we did enjoy was snowmobile bar hopping. The snowmobile trails in Adams County have taverns as their end points. Every few miles, there is an opportunity to stop, warm up, and enjoy the camaraderie of friends and other snowmobilers. I always wanted to go along, but I always got sleepy as soon as we left home. I probably slept on most of the pool tables in western Adams County.

With so much extended family around, we would see them often, particularly my grandparents. My dad and his father are very close. When I was young, we would spend many evenings visiting their house. My dad and grandfather would talk for hours. My mother and grandmother would talk, play with me, or watch TV to pass the time.

My grandmother loved me openly and unconditionally. She is a psychological anchor for me, a reminder that unconditional love exists. Everyone should have people like that in their life. Sadly, many don't. My grandmother died in 2001, but I still think about her often. She used to collect wheat pennies, and now whenever I see a penny, I think of her. It's an association I cultivate and cherish.

When I was a child, I spent a lot of time outside. I used to go for walks in the woodlot behind my house spending hours exploring and watching wildlife. I had an enormous natural sand pile to play in where I created entire cities complete with roads for my Tonka toys to drive on. During the summer my mother and I would go for long bike rides to climb the numerous mounds, and spend lazy days at the beach on Friendship Pond. In the winter, I would go sledding or ice skating and build snowmen and snow forts for snowball fights. It was a simple time full of simple pleasures.

Life in town

Even while we lived just out of town, my mother's parents had a house right on Main Street in the heart of the action — what action there was in a town of 2,000 people. I had the best of both worlds. When I was in first grade, we moved from our woodlot property to a house in town two doors down from the elementary school.

Back in the 1970s, the back yards throughout the neighborhood were a communal playground. There were no fences to keep people out, and nobody was territorial about their yards. My next door neighbor became a close friend, and the other children in the neighborhood would come around and play with us. Often we would go play at the nearby school yard and listen for our mother's to call out to us when dinner was ready.

We bicycled all around our neighborhood, and in the summer, we would sometimes peddle down to the Friendship Pond to swim and cool off. Children today don't have the freedom of movement we enjoyed as children. Perhaps our parents were foolish not to protect us from the predators out there, but in our time of innocence, nobody conceived such dangers existed. We didn't have play dates, we just met up and did whatever seemed like fun at the time. It was a carefree era.

And this is where I grew up I think the present owner fixed it up I never knew we'd ever went without

And this is where I went to school Most of the time had better things to do

Early Friendships and school days

My first friend outside my family was David Georgeson. His parents owned the gas station a block away from my mother's parent's house on Main Street. When we met, I was still riding my tricycle. David was about six months older than me, and he had already learned to ride a tiny two-wheeled bike. Since David's parents were tied to their gas station business, they didn't have the time or freedom to do much. David and I became close friends, and he was invited to go along with us everywhere we went. He was like a brother to me.

My first memories from school include the first day of kindergarten. I was not afraid on my first day; on the contrary, I was excited. It was going to be great fun to meet all these new kids and make new friends. I didn't know what was going to happen in the classroom, but I didn't worry I wouldn't enjoy it.

All the students arrived at different times prior to the first bell. Some walked, a few were dropped off by parents, and many arrived by bus. We all played together until the bell rang to start our school day. These free times and recess is where we all got to know one another, and it's where the pecking order was established. David and I were both popular, and we found ourselves near the top of the class.

We played a lot of kickball and dodgeball in those days, but most of the play was unstructured. For a while marbles was a popular game, and it taught you something about risk. In the game of marbles, each player throws his marble at the other player's marbles until one of them hits their opponent's marble. There were two ways to play; for fun, or for keeps. The serious players liked to play “for keeps.” The winner of those contests got to keep the marbles of the losing player. My mother bought me a great set of marbles with many cat's eyes, boulders, and the massive king-king-boulders. I was thrilled to get such a prized collection. I lost a few of my most prized marbles playing for keeps, and I was distraught over my loss. Games like marbles teach you about attachment, gain, and loss. It was never as much fun playing “for fun.”

The class cohorts were small in Adams-Friendship. There were only three teachers for a grade, and only a few elementary schools in the entire district. The graduating class of 1985 was only 125 students. The small cohort groups meant everyone knew everyone else, and you saw the same faces every year from first grade through graduation. It creates a closeness that's lost in larger schools where students become anonymous. It also creates opportunity for marginal athletes to be local stars. Many small-town football studs wouldn't even make the team in a larger school, but by being in a small town, they got those experiences which they cherish forever.

Everyone today expounds the virtues of diversity, and living in a multicultural area has its appeal. Adams-Friendship was as homogenous as it gets. With no economic growth to bring in outsiders, the entire population was made up of multi-generational families like mine, all with the same background and rural heritage. There was no prejudice to speak of. We weren't rednecks who hated outsiders, it was merely that outsiders had no reason to move to the area and become accepted insiders.

When I was in school, they opened a federal penitentiary in the south part of the county. Apparently, the feds liked the sparsely populated rural swampland as it made it easy to round up any escapees before they got too far. This brought new faces to the county, and with them our first African American residents. At first being the only black children in a school as white as Wonderbread made them stand out, but after a short time, the novelty wore off, and they became part of the group. Nobody had taught the children of Adams-Friendship to hate, so we had no reason to reject these newcomers. Acceptance was the norm in the community.

Wisconsin Dells

Despite the somewhat boring nature of rural life, we did have a nearby source of fun and entertainment. Twenty-five miles south of my hometown is the tourist trap, Wisconsin Dells. In the mid nineteenth century, loggers floating timber down the Wisconsin River noted unusual and beautiful sandstone formations in one area of the journey. The Wisconsin Dells quickly became popular with tourists who wanted to see this natural wonder. As tourists flocked to the area, other attractions sprung up, and a tourist Mecca was born.

During the prime season of the summer, my family used to go to the Dells on Saturday nights to watch the short track auto racing. The scent of burning rubber, motor oil and gasoline still brings back fond memories of watching racing. Some of the best short-track drivers of the era used to race these circuits. Wisconsin Dells was always my favorite track to go watch racing because afterward, we would go into town and race go-carts and play mini golf. Many of the best moments of my childhood were had there.

Wisconsin Dells has always given me a peaceful feeling. I have many joyous memories of both natural wonders and man-made thrills. I like to go back every year in late June for the good weather and 18 hours of sunlight, but it doesn't always happen. I want to build these same memories for my son, but I know it will never be quite the same.

One of the greatest experiences of my youth happened one Friday evening in 1977. My father told me were were going to some new movie called Star Wars. I didn't know what to expect. The poster at the local movie theater didn't pique my interest. We drove down to the Dells drive in with my uncle and watched the movie on the really big screen. It was one of the most enthralling experiences of my life. I was completely captivated. After the movie, we went into town for our usual routine of go-carts and mini golf.

As we drove home that night, I remember the warm feelings of movie fantasy, family fun, and blissful contentment as I dozed off. I was the happiest time in all my life.

Remember when the days were long

And rolled beneath a deep blue sky

Didn't have a care in the world

With mommy and daddy standing by

End of innocence

My idyllic childhood came to an abrupt end. When I was 11 years old, my parents decided to move out of our small town chasing an opportunity for a better life. Better than what? The desire for more afflicts us all, and it's primarily what keeps me away even now. I don't blame them for wanting something more, I only wished it would have made up for what was lost. For me, it never did.

The family moved to Northwest Arkansas near the home of Wal-Mart. The culture shock was jarring. Uprooted from my friends and family, I was plopped down in the prejudiced fringe of the Bible Belt. The school system sucked, so I was two years ahead of my peers, and being of above-average intelligence, I was actually much farther ahead than two years. Rather than being accepted as a leader, I was ostracized as an outsider. It was a role I later came to embrace.

The trauma of the move and my inability to adapt to the new culture served to increase my nostalgia for Adams-Friendship. I made many new friends in my years in Arkansas; in fact, the lifelong friendships I enjoy today all endure from the people I met there. However, my dissatisfaction with life in Arkansas prompted me to hatch a plan to return to Wisconsin. Years later, I did go back. The last semester of my senior year of high school, spring of 1985, I went back to come of age.

Come back tomorrow when I explore how I recaptured my sense of community and came of age by returning to my old home town.

Ancestral Call

My rural roots

My roots run deep in the rural farm community of Friendship, Wisconsin. My fraternal family line can be traced back to Thomas Roberts, a Welshman born in 1831. Thomas arrived with two bothers in New York, but sadly, he became separated from them and never saw them again. Thomas immigrated to Adams County, Wisconsin where he started a family which still boasts many local residents. Although my name is Welsh, the women who married Roberts men for the next several generations were of Scandinavian descent. I am a mutt of the American melting pot.

Many Scandinavians, Germans and Poles were drawn to central Wisconsin. The climate was something they were used to, so adapting to the new way of life was a bit easier for them than most. I grew up with four seasons, although the winters are particularly long and cold. Like everyone else, I adapted to the climate, but I never really grew to like it. The first snow in the fall is exciting, and sitting in front of a cozy fireplace while a blizzard rages outside is a special experience outsiders don’t fully understand. However, the fortieth snowfall of the season in April and hard freezes in May are experiences I’d rather forget. It’s a wonderful place to visit, but I don’t miss living there.

The Castellated Mounds

In the last ice age, much of Wisconsin was covered by glaciers. Adams County was actually the bottom of a large glacial lake which left behind a flat pile of sand which slowly drains to the adjacent Wisconsin River. The marshlands are drained by a series of small creeks and dotted with a mixture of pine trees, maples, and oaks. The landscape is relatively uniform except for the unusual castellated mounds which spring up across the county.

These mounds are characterized by exposed sandstone rock outcroppings elevated above the treeline providing views of the surrounding countryside. Just as Ayers Rock arises from the Aboriginal outback, these mounds have long been a spiritual magnet for local peoples dating back to the Native American Tribe of Roche a Cri who inhabited this area. These earliest inhabitants carved hieroglyphs depicting the key events of daily life. Growing up, I explored many of these mounds, and I discovered carvings from settlers dating back to the nineteenth century.

These mounds draw me in as they have others for centuries. When I approach I feel like I am entering holy ground, seeing Gaia, naked and exposed. These rocks feel ancient and unchanging surrounded by an ephemeral environment of fire-prone forests, lakes, and marshland.

Whenever I go back to Wisconsin to visit my home town, I go climb these rocks. For me it’s a religious pilgrimage.

Agrarian Rural Life

Central Wisconsin is far enough south that the growing season permits salable produce. Fifty miles further north, and timber is the only harvest. My ancestors were farmers making a living from the land. It was a arduous yet uncomplicated life. They grew crops, ate what they needed, and sold the rest to obtain a few niceties. They knew their neighbors, and they banded together to share seldom-used farm equipment, protected what they had from outsiders, and enjoyed a beer or two at the local tavern. A close-knit community developed.

The local economy was based on crop production, and trade revolved around the mills which sprung up along the various creeks which crisscrossed the land.

Servicing an agrarian economy took merchants. My great-great-grandfather Rufus Roberts was one of these entrepreneurs. He started the Monroe Center Store in 1898 and ran it at the turn of the twentieth century.

Rufus Roberts sold the school district a lot for the first elementary school in the area. He also took over the local sorghum mill and operated it for several years. At one point, Rufus bought the old county courthouse, moved it on rollers by horseback to a new location, and converted it to four apartments. As a community leader, he began the forth of July parade in Monroe Center and fostered it’s growth over the years that followed.

Rufus and Tilly, my great-great-grandparents (seated) were the parents of William Roberts (second from left) who married Elizabeth Carleson.

William and Elizabeth had five boys: Roger (my grandfather, now 94, on the left), Alva, John, Otto, and Claude.

William and Elizabeth acquired the prime farmland just outside the farm community of Friendship, Wisconsin. This farm is still worked by the Roberts family today.

Adams County, Wisconsin, is the land of my forefathers. Many of their decedents still live there. I try to go back every year to catch up with family and friends and find myself all over again. I get very nostalgic, and it serves to ground me in what’s real. Some part of me will always call it home.

Adams-Friendship, Wisconsin

Friendship, Wisconsin, is a farm community of about 700 people. has been the county seat of Adams County since 1848. When the railroad came to the area, local landowners demanded too much money, so the railroad moved the station two miles to the south, and the city of Adams sprung up in the gap between the station and the village of Friendship. The city of Adams is home to less than 2,000 people, and the entire county has less than 20,000. Needless to say, it’s rather rural.

Rural communities don’t change much. The building facades change periodically as businesses come and go, but for the most part, those towns are the same today as they were forty years ago when I was a child. In all likelihood, these cities will be same for the rest of my life. I take great comfort in that. The sameness of my home town is something I can count on. No matter what else changes in my life, my connection to the past will always remain. These towns will always be familiar.

Roger Roberts

My grandfather, Roger Roberts, grew up in Monroe Center. World War II started when he was in his early twenties, so he enlisted in the US Army Airborne. While in basic training in El Paso, Texas, he became severely dehydrated on a long march and his kidneys failed. He was sent to the hospital to recover. While in the hospital his unit was sent to France where it was decimated on D-Day. If my grandfather had not had kidney failure on the long march, he would have gone to battle and died on D-Day with the rest of his unit. I try not to think about the crazy way Fate intervenes in life.

My grandfather became a Sergeant in the Army and ran the kitchen cooking for over 180 men each day. His most harrowing experience was during the Battle of the Bulge when his 101st Airborne unit was overrun in Luxembourg by German Panzers sixty-eight years ago this week. He survived, thankfully, or I wouldn’t be here to tell the story.

Roger returned home in 1946 after two years abroad. He married Edna Paulson, my grandmother, and they had three children, Larry (my father), Judy, and Kenny. He worked with his two brothers in their local salvage business for most of his working life. He’s 94 years old and still doing well.

Leo Wilda

My mother’s father, Leo Wilda, settled in Adams, Wisconsin, and spent his entire adult life there. He married Margaret Wilda and had five children: Pat, LuVerna, Audrey (my mother), Mary, and Mike.

My grandfather always had a deep connection to the land. He liked to farm and grow his own vegetables. I remember he would start his tomatoes under grow lights indoors to get a couple of weeks head start on the growing season. He maintained his own garden plot until late in life. He also maintained the grounds at the local cemetery, and he maintained the local 9-hole golf course, all part-time. If the sun was shining, he was probably outside. Leo Wilda passed away in 2000 at the age of 83.

There is a lot to admire about both my grandfathers. When I think about my mother’s father, I always deeply respected his connection to nature, and I enjoyed his quirky sense of humor.

It’s the Circle of Life

And it moves us all

Through despair and hope

Through faith and love

Till we find our place

On the path unwinding

In the Circle

The Circle of Life

Ancestral Call

When I think about community, I remember what it was like growing up in a rural area with family and friends. Kinship and shared values bound us together. Prospering in an inhospitable climate required people to come together for mutual benefit. There is a sense of shared sacrifice and creating something greater than oneself for the benefit of others. It’s one of the feelings I enjoy about blogging and providing information for the greater good.

I am a small town the child of two families with deep local roots and a love for the area. Both sets of grandparents and much of my extended family lived within a few miles of one another. It was a unique environment. I was part of a community of elders who helped guide me in the formative years of my life. I had every advantage a strong family could offer. It was a wonderful way to start out life.

Over the next three days, I am going to write more about my life growing up in this environment. These are the experiences that shaped and defined my beliefs and my outlook on life. Thank you for allowing me to share this with you.

Home prices across OC continue to plummet

Prices across most of Orange County continue to decline. The OC Register reports prices have hit a near three-year low. My own analysis of the MLS data shows Irvine teetering on the brink of taking out the 2009 low and setting a new eight-year record low.

Home Address … 8 KANSAS Irvine, CA 92606

Asking Price ……. $639,000

O.C. home prices hit 31-month low

December 13th, 2011, 9:39 am

Orange County’s home pricing got hit with autmun’s chill, as builders had a record-worst sales month.

DataQuick reported this morning that 2,297 residence sold in November. That is up 1.8% from a year ago. That gain came at a price. Literally.

Median selling price was $400,000 — the lowest since April 2009 and off 8.0% in a year. Orange County’s median first hit $400,000 in May 2003.

Anyone who has been reading my writing is not surprised by these numbers. Ever since the spring rally fizzled out in May, I have been predicting a big drop in the fall and winter. When December's numbers are posted, they should be even worse.

By the slice:

  • 1,495 single-family residences sold last month. That is up 6% from a year ago.
  • 664 condos sold last month. That is up 8% from a year ago.

Increasing sales and decreasing prices means the decline is accelerating. The sales volumes are still well below historic norms, but the fact that volume is increasing is a good sign for those waiting for lender capitulation as a sign of a market bottom.

  • Builders had 138 new-home sales last month. That is down 42% from a year ago. It was the slowest November for developers in DataQuick records that date to 1988.

And more analysis …

  • $400,000 median selling price is 38% below June 2007′s peak of $645,000.
  • Current price is 11.1% below 2010′s peak (May and July) of $450,000; 2% below end of 2010′s median ($410,000.)
  • The most recent median is 8% above the cyclical low hit in January 2009 at $370,000 — so the median has recouped 11% of the $275,000 price drop from the peak.
  • Compared to cyclical low, single-family house median is 10% higher ($418,250 in January 2009); condo median is 1% higher ($252,000 in March 2009.) Builder prices for new homes are 35% above June 2009′s $424,000 bottom.

See the follow up post below reminding everyone of how the low of the median in 2009 was an illusion created by the changing mix of houses sold.

  • The median selling price of a single-family home is 37% less than their peak pricing (June ’07). Condos sell 46% below their peak in March 2006. Builder prices for new homes are 34% below their February ’05 top.
  • Single-family homes were 80% more expensive than condos in this period vs. 71% a year ago. From 1988-2010, the average house/condo gap was 57%.
  • Builder’s new homes sales were 6% of all residences sold in the period vs. 10% a year ago. From 1988-2010, builders did 14% of the Orange County homeselling.

These are dismal numbers. There is no way the bulls can convincingly spin this. Prices will fall through January or February, then we will see the start of the season uptick for next year's spring rally. Expect the usual suspects to call the bottom.

Just as a reminder, the median is not the best measure of price performance:

It seems like there may still me a few people who do not understand that the median low is not necessarily and most often not the absolute low of any statistic. The 2009 Orange County median low for residential home prices was not the low for home prices as can be evidenced by anyone who has been actively been watching home prices for the last few years. Anyone that is, who is not a moron.

From Wikipedia: In probability theory and statistics, a median is described as the numerical value separating the higher half of a sample, a population, or a probability distribution, from the lower half. The median of a finite list of numbers can be found by arranging all the observations from lowest value to highest value and picking the middle one. If there is an even number of observations, then there is no single middle value; the median is then usually defined to be the mean of the two middle values.

Here are two lists which provide examples of median prices using a sample of ten prices each:

Sale Prices Sale Prices
$200,000 $200,000
$200,000 $250,000
$225,000 $300,000
$225,000 $400,000
$250,000 $500,000
$250,000 $600,000
$500,000 $700,000
$1,000,000 $800,000
$1,500,000 $900,000
$2,000,000 $1,000,000

The median of the first list is $250,000 while the mean is $635,000.

The median of the second list is $550,000, more than the median of the first list, while the mean is less than the mean of the first; only $465,000.

Although they show opposite results, neither the median nor the mean are flawed, but both are limited by their definition and the data set applied.

The Orange County Median Low in 2009 was not the low for home prices and anybody who has been watching home prices for the last few years can attest to the same. The Orange County median reached a low in 2009 because of the mix of homes being sold. 2009 had an unusually large percentage of distressed sales of lower end homes purchased in 2005/2006 or refied in 2005/2006 by subprime borrowers with 2/1 and 3/1 Option Arm mortgages. The mortgages recast in 2006 to 2008 and these subprime borrowers had little to no reserves with which to make their larger recast payment, and the resulting distressed sales occurred relatively quickly compared to present default times. Of course, none of this is news to anyone who has been paying attention or is not denying the facts.

After 2009, the mix of homes being sold changed with 3/1, 5/1, and 7/1 Option Arm mortgages recasting on Alt-A and prime borrowers with more reserves and larger incomes from which to delay a distressed sale on more expensive homes. This is most easily evidenced by the longer and longer times to foreclosure from default initialization, but Coto Housing Blog readers can probably deduce this from their own observation.

Home prices did not rise as is claimed by the delusional and the logically challenged, (read moron), but rather the rise in the median price reflected a greater percentage of more expensive homes sold. A trend in any price or metric cannot be accurately determined by observing only one statistic to the exclusion of others.

I have also written about this issue in the past:

2003 Rollback

The owners of today's featured property paid the current asking price over eight years ago. Eight years: no appreciation.

Apparently, they were not paying down their mortgage because it is also listed as a short sale.

——————————————————————————————————————————————-

This property is available for sale via the MLS.

Please contact Shevy Akason, #01836707

949.769.1599

sales@idealhomebrokers.com

Home Address … 8 KANSAS Irvine, CA 92606

Asking Price ……. $639,000

Beds: 5

Baths: 3

Sq. Ft.: 2200

$290/SF

Property Type: Residential, Single Family

Style: Two Level, Contemporary

Year Built: 1999

Community: Walnut

County: Orange

MLS#: P804843

Source: CRMLS

Status: Active

On Redfin: 19 days

——————————————————————————

One of the popular Plan 3 home situated in a gated community of Harvard Square. One br. one full bath dn stairs. 2.5 Car garage. Property comes with additional side yard & beautiful landscaping. Pergo wood floor, Oak cabinets, plantation wood shutters, Berber carpet and tiles. Close to FW 5 & 261. Short sale.

——————————————————————————————————————————————-

Proprietary commentary and analysis

Asking Price ……. $639,000

Purchase Price … $639,000

Purchase Date …. 9/4/2003

Net Gain (Loss) ………. ($38,340)

Percent Change ………. -6.0%

Annual Appreciation … -0.0%

Cost of Home Ownership

————————————————-

$639,000 ………. Asking Price

$127,800 ………. 20% Down Conventional

4.02% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$511,200 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$126,014 ………. Income Requirement

$2,446 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$554 ………. Property Tax (@1.04%)

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$133 ………. Homeowners Insurance (@ 0.25%)

$0 ………. Private Mortgage Insurance

$122 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$3,255 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$397 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$734 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment (Amortization)

$179 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$100 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$2,404 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$6,390 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$6,390 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$5,112 ………. Interest Points

$127,800 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$145,692 ………. Total Cash Costs

$36,800 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$182,492 ………. Total Savings Needed

——————————————————————————————————————————————————-

Surge in discounted REO expected next year

Banks dramatically increased their scheduled foreclosure auctions in November 63% over October. They appear serious about clearing out shadow inventory and getting what capital they can out of the loans secured by houses occupied by delinquent mortgage squatters.

Home Address … 415 East YALE Loop #13 Irvine, CA 92614

Asking Price ……. $487,500

Scheduled foreclosure auctions soar in California

Banks set the clock for forced sales of more than 26,000 homes in the state in November, a 63% increase from October. Overall foreclosure notices nationwide fell last month.

By Alejandro Lazo, Los Angeles Times — December 15, 2011

Banks in November scheduled more than 26,000 homes to be sold at California foreclosure auctions, a 63% increase from October and a sign that a surge in discounted, bank-owned properties is on track to hit the market next year.

In September I noted, Bank of America foreclosure notices increase 116%, spring 2012 rally doomed.

The uptick in scheduled auctions follows an increase last summer in homes entering the foreclosure process by receiving default notices and was largely driven by Bank of America. It appears that many of those homes are now quickly working their way through the process, said Daren Blomquist, a spokesman for RealtyTrac of Irvine, a data tracker that published the November data.

B of A is desperate. They may be too big to fail, but they aren't too big to keep hemorrhaging cash forever. Desperate for cash: BofA cuts 30,000 jobs, ramps up foreclosures

The increase played out nationally, hitting a nine-month high, even as overall foreclosure notices declined last month. Among the states, California had the biggest month-over-month increase in scheduled auctions, followed by Washington, 56%; Ohio, 53%; New Jersey, 44%; and New York, 38%. “November's numbers suggest a new set of incoming foreclosure waves, many of which may roll into the market as [foreclosures] or short sales sometime early next year,” said James Saccacio, co-founder and chief executive of RealtyTrac.

B of A is getting the timing right. If they want to sell these REOs without completely crashing the market, they need them ready for the spring selling season. Expect to see most of these homes hit the market between March and July.

Nationally, overall foreclosure filings on U.S. properties — default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions — totaled 224,394 in November, down 3% from October and off 14% from November 2010. About 1 in 579 homes received a foreclosure filing last month, by RealtyTrac's tally. Celia Chen, a housing economist with Moody's Analytics, said she expected the number of foreclosures on banks' books to rise next year and for the number of discounted foreclosures on the market to remain elevated. That will continue to put pressure on home prices. “The pace of sales will remain very slow, so the share of distressed sales is going to rise most likely through the middle of next year, and this will cause home prices to fall,” Chen said. “Job growth is still weak, and then it is still a bit difficult to get those low rates. Lenders, in general, are still being pretty careful about who they write a mortgage for.”

Yes, banks now move beyond a pulse test, and they actually require a job and verifiable income. Banks will remain what realtors and others consider “tight” indefinitely because they are merely practicing good underwriting techniques — at least for now.

The West's Foreclosure Belt continued to be the hardest hit region in the nation. Nevada posted the highest foreclosure rate in the nation for the 59th month in a row, despite a decline in foreclosure activity because of a new law cracking down on those doing the foreclosing. California had the second-highest rate and Arizona the third in November.

The new law in Nevada is having an impact on the issuance of new NODs. Nevada may not post the highest foreclosure rate in the nation in a month or two, but any such reduction is temporary.

California cities accounted for nine of the 10 metro areas with the highest foreclosure rates. Las Vegas was the only city outside of California in the top 10, coming in at No. 6. Stockton posted the nation's highest foreclosure rate for the second month in a row, followed by Modesto and Fresno. In California, total foreclosure activity was up 15% from October and up 11% from November 2010. The number of homes entering foreclosure continued at an elevated level last month, down just 1% from October and up 12% from November 2010. Notices of trustee sales, or scheduled auctions, jumped 63% month over month and 14% over November 2010. Bank repossessions declined 15% from the previous month and were up 1% from the same month last year. The uptick in California filings was driven by the auction notices. When such a notice is filed at a county recorder's office, a home can be sold within 21 days. alejandro.lazo@latimes.com

The foreclosures of thousands of squatters and the liquidation of REO in California will be proceeding in earnest next year. If their past behavior is any indication, lenders will stop selling so many REO if prices start to accelerate the pace of the declines. However, if BofA is as desperate as they appear to be, they may not care what impact they have on the housing market — they need the capital to survive. This may be the end of the banking cartel.

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This property is available for sale via the MLS.

Please contact Shevy Akason, #01836707

949.769.1599

sales@idealhomebrokers.com

Home Address … 415 East YALE Loop #13 Irvine, CA 92614

Asking Price ……. $487,500

Beds: 3

Baths: 2

Sq. Ft.: 2150

$227/SF

Property Type: Residential, Condominium

Style: Two Level, Contemporary

Year Built: 1985

Community: Woodbridge

County: Orange

MLS#: S676659

Source: CRMLS

Status: Active

On Redfin: 67 days

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REO BANK OWNED PROPERTY!! Beautiful condo close to lake! Has 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. There is a half bath upstairs and all three bedrooms upstairs. Has an open floor plan with plenty of room. There is carpet through the bedrooms, stairs, and hallway. There is a fireplace in the family room. The backyard is set up great for entertaining. Association has a pool and spa for everyone to enjoy. Don't miss this opportunity to buy a bank owned home!!

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Proprietary commentary and analysis

Asking Price ……. $487,500

Purchase Price … $780,000

Purchase Date …. 9/28/2005

Net Gain (Loss) ………. ($321,750)

Percent Change ………. -41.3%

Annual Appreciation … -7.4%

Cost of Home Ownership

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$487,500 ………. Asking Price

$17,062 ………. 3.5% Down FHA Financing

4.02% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$470,438 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$143,939 ………. Income Requirement

$2,251 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$422 ………. Property Tax (@1.04%)

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$102 ………. Homeowners Insurance (@ 0.25%)

$541 ………. Private Mortgage Insurance

$402 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

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$3,718 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$500 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$675 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment (Amortization)

$24 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$81 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

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$2,648 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

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$4,875 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$4,875 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$4,704 ………. Interest Points

$17,062 ………. Down Payment

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$31,517 ………. Total Cash Costs

$40,500 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

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$72,017 ………. Total Savings Needed

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