Category Archives: WTF

Irvine or Laguna Beach?

Irvine and Laguna Beach are very close, and although the lifestyles are very different, the housing markets draw from the same buyer pool. Pricing in one community impacts the other.

20 Wildland   Irvine, CA 92603  kitchen

Asking Price: $1,998,000

Address: 20 Wildland Irvine, CA 92603

Wild thing…you make my heart sing…
You make everything
Groovy
I said wild thing…

Wild thing, I think you move me
But I wanna know for sure
So come on, hold me tight
You move me

Wild Thing — The Troggs

Some of the high-end properties in Irvine and Orange County are really groovy. With the wild and unpredictable pricing in our markets, the attachment of people to their properties can become a love-hate relationship.

In a housing market crash like we are witnessing now, no neighborhood is immune. The most desirable neighborhoods crash last, and they come back the soonest, but they too must walk through the valley of the shadow of death (Psalm 23:4). Right now, they fear no evil.

Despite the fact that they fall last and come back first, it does not mean that these neighborhoods crash least. Due to The Immunity Syndrome, some of these neighborhoods will crash the hardest. The prices in these neighborhoods was not pushed up so high by cash buyers, and although cash buyers can float things for a time, the lack of financing creates a vacuum that sucks the air out of the housing bubble.

For now, buyers with substantial cash positions dominate the market in Irvine. Large financing amounts will not be common any time soon as the loan programs of the bubble are dead. Will cash buyers sustain the market forever? No.

20 Wildland   Irvine, CA 92603  kitchen

Asking Price: $1,998,000

Income Requirement: $499,500

Downpayment Needed: $399,600

Purchase Price: $1,713,500

Purchase Date: 12/16/2005

Address: 20 Wildland Irvine, CA 92603

Beds: 5
Baths: 5
Sq. Ft.: 3,900
$/Sq. Ft.: $512
Lot Size: 8,367

Sq. Ft.

Property Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Other
Stories: 2
View: Canyon
Year Built: 2005
Community: Turtle Ridge
County: Orange
MLS#: P699886
Source: SoCalMLS
Status: Active
On Redfin: 2 days

‘WOW’ Owner Upgraded more than $300,000 for 7′ Crown Molding
throughout, Security Systems, Built in Speaker Systems, Chandelier
lighting System throughtout House, Custom made curtains, 20X20
Travertine tiles throughtout downstairs, All Upgraded Viking
Applicances, Cabinets, Counter Tops, Door Knobs, Built in Media Center
and Wall units, Built in Walk in Closet, Custom Paint Throughout with
designer Wall Paper in dining area, Powder Room and Master Bedroom,
Built in BBQ, Water Falls (X2), Large Built in Fire pit, Fruit trees(
Jujube, Peach, Persimmon and Avocado), and much more… Cul-de-sac
Location, Back to private Views and Trees, Very Quiet,

If they spent $300,000 on upgrades, we know where the WTF asking price comes from.

throughtout?

Do you know what Jujube is? I didn’t.20 Wildland   Irvine, CA 92603  couch

Back to private Views and Trees, Very Quiet? I call BS on that one. This property backs to the intersection where all the traffic in the subdivision comes and goes, and it sides on to a collector street.

What is that staged on the couch?

The owners of this property do have a mortgage over the deduction limit, but even if they had to reduce price, this would not be a short sale. I still think they will fall underwater, but that is not today’s market.

If this property sells for its current asking price and a 6% commission is paid (it will probably only be 5%), the late 2005 buyer and current owner will make $164,620. Perhaps there was no bubble?

The Substitution Effect

People searching for a $2,000,000 property are generally going to look at all the lifestyles available to them. If nearby cities have superior properties and lower prices, people and money will flow there.

2255 BRIDGE Rd   Laguna Beach, CA 92651  view 2255 BRIDGE Rd   Laguna Beach, CA 92651  inside

Asking Price: $1,999,000

Income Requirement: $499,750

Downpayment Needed: $399,800

Purchase Price: $1,120,000

Purchase Date: 6/23/2002

Address: 2255 BRIDGE Rd Laguna Beach, CA 92651

Beds: 5
Baths: 4
Sq. Ft.: 3,697
$/Sq. Ft.: $541
Lot Size: 7,500

Sq. Ft.

Property Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Craftsman
Stories: 3+
View: Canyon, Catalina Island, City Lights, Hills, Ocean, Panoramic, Has View
Year Built: 1976
Community: Laguna Village
County: Orange
MLS#: S558331
Source: SoCalMLS
Status: Active
On Redfin: 233 days

$$$ MONSTER 1/4 Million dollar Price Reduction!$$$ (7/25) Now priced
WELL below the average SOLD price per s/f~ Enjoy remarkable Ocean,
Catalina Island, canyon, and city light views from this stunning true 5
bedroom, 3,697 square foot, three story Laguna Beach home. Each day
brings a new sunset to view from multiple levels of balconies, DUAL
master suites, and a hot tub in the yard to soak up the many views.
Enjoy morning coffee on the patio adjacent to formal living and dining
rooms, or unwind in the family room with corner windows framing in the
stunning landscape. Located on a private cul-de-sac with a two-car
garage, this spacious home resembles the feeling of being in a resort
while in the comfort of your own home. Close to dining, Resorts, John
Wayne Airport and Laguna Canyon.

I guess that $$$ MONSTER price reduction did not close the deal because another one followed. Perhaps their WTF starting price was part of the problem.

Date Event Price
Aug 20, 2009 Price Changed $1,999,000
Jul 25, 2009 Price Changed $2,095,000
Jul 17, 2009 Price Changed $2,240,000
Feb 10, 2009 Price Changed $2,350,000
Jan 02, 2009 Listed $2,450,000

Take a good look at both of these $2,000,000 properties. In your opinion, is the Irvine property as nice as the Laguna Beach one? Personally, I think the views and proximity to the water make the Laguna Beach property far superior, but some may favor the Irvine home for its convenient location.

Competing properties in neighboring communities have an impact on property values. All high-end communities in Orange County equally immune to price declines? If one crashes, with the substitution effect bring them all down? It should.

{book5}

The substitution effect also down the housing ladder within the same communities. As prices on properties like the one featured below continue to decline, that will apply pressure on the better properties in the area.

39 Bower Tree yard 39 Bower Tree kitchen

Asking Price: $839,900

Income Requirement: $209,975

Downpayment Needed: $167,980

Purchase Price: $817,000

Purchase Date: 4/17/2008

Address: 39 Bower Tree Irvine, CA 92603

Beds: 3
Baths: 3
Sq. Ft.: 1,665
$/Sq. Ft.: $504
Lot Size:
Property Type: Condominium
Style: Tuscan
Stories: 2
Floor: 1
Year Built: 2004
Community: Turtle Ridge
County: Orange
MLS#: U9003739
Source: SoCalMLS
Status: Active
On Redfin: 2 days

Gourmet Kitchen Award

PRISTINE ARBOREL PLAN 3 – 3 BEDROOMS + DEN/OFFICE, 2.5 BATHS.
CUSTOMIZED & UPGRADED THROUGHOUT WITH HARDWOOD FLOORS, CROWN
MOLDING, PLANTATION SHUTTERS, CUSTOM PAINT, RECESSED LIGHTING, BUILT-IN
SPEAKERS, FIREPLACE AND MORE. GOURMET KITCHEN WITH STAINLESS STEEL
APPLIANCES, GRANITE COUNTERTOPS, CUSTOM CENTER ISLAND & WALK-IN
PANTRY. REAR YARD WITH BUILT-IN BARBECUE, STONE PATIO & GRASSY
AREA. IMMACULATE MOVE-IN CONDITION. DEN/OFFICE CURRENTLY USED AS
PLAYROOM, COULD BE CONVERTED TO FORMAL DINING ROOM. LOW TAX RATE OF
1.04%, LOW MELLO ROOS APPROX. $2930/YEAR.

ALL CAPS

LOW TAX RATE OF
1.04%? Low compared to what? Isn’t every house taxed at 1% (plus a few miscellaneous fees) because of Proposition 13?

The second property looks suspiciously like a flip gone bad. Our flipper knife catcher paid $817,000 in 2008 for a property that sold for $903,500 in 2005. I imagine they figured they were getting a bargain. It hasn’t worked out in their favor.

The current asking price is 3% over the price they paid. If one of the owners is a realtor, they probably have listed it with a 3% markup to cover the cost of the buyer’s broker. At least that is their thought process. I wonder if comps or the declining market figured into their calculations. It doesn’t look like it.

Climate Value

Everyone wants to live in California, right? Well, we do have the best climate in the Country if not the World, so we do have something rare and valuable here. Does it create value?

104 Capeberry   Irvine, CA 92603  kitchen

Asking Price: $1,399,000

Address: 104 Capeberry Irvine, CA 92603

Rollin’ down Imperial Highway
With a big nasty redhead at my side
Santa Ana winds blowin’ hot from the north
And we was born to ride
Roll down the window, put down the top
Crank up the Beach Boys, baby
Don’t let the music stop
We’re gonna ride it ’til we just can’t ride it no more
From the South Bay to the Valley
From the West Side to the East Side
Everybody’s very happy
‘Cause the sun is shining all the time
Looks like another perfect day
I love L.A. (We love it)
I love L.A. (We love it)
We love it

I Love L.A. — Randy Newman

I drive a convertible; I rarely put the top up. When my family makes weekend plans, we don’t worry about the weather. The climate in Coastal California is nearly perfect, and I enjoy it every day.

Weeks ago I wrote Rental Parity and Beyond to describe the value created beyond rental cashflow. The narrow coastal band of properties in California have a unique and very high quality climate.

Cold

I grew up in Central Wisconsin. Like much of the country, there are four distinct seasons there, but in Wisconsin, the winters are particularly brutal. I remember one full week in February of 1985, the high temperature never got above zero degrees. Each day, the high would be -8 to -2, and the lows would drop down well below -20. One morning, it was -38 when I went outside to start my car. That is cold.

It is difficult to describe just how cold thirty-eight degrees below zero really is. Everyone knows how warm 80 degrees feels, and most know how much colder 40 degrees feels. That same change in feeling accompanies the drop from 40 degrees to zero degrees, and it happens again when dropping from zero to minus 40. Zero degrees is a very chilling cold. Any exposed skin is immediately “bitten” by Jack Frost. Forty degrees below zero is beyond cold. Exposed skin feels like it is on fire at those temperatures as the cold “freezer burns” your skin. Prolonged exposure results in a bone-chilling cold where the surface layers go numb and the chill penetrates deeply into your body.

There is no escaping cold weather. There is no time of day when you can go outside and be comfortable. You have to bundle up with layers of clothing, heavy coats and boots, and you rush from one artificially heated environment to another. Whenever you are exposed to the cold, you hate it — and you can’t help being exposed.

It is never cold in Irvine.

Hot

I lived in Las Vegas for a while, and I have spent much time in hot, arid climates. Someone described Las Vegas to me as “living in a hair dryer.” The deserts in inland California are much the same. There is good weather in these areas for 8 months of the year, but the summers are very hot and nearly unbearable. Extreme heat is very draining, and exposure can result in heat stroke and dehydration. I prefer heat to cold because when it is really hot, at least you can go outside in the mornings or evenings and the temperature is bearable.

It is never hot in Irvine.

Humid

I lived in Florida for 7 years, and I lived in humid areas of Arkansas and Texas for much longer. Humidity sucks. The moment you step outside, you begin to sweat. It is uncomfortable, particularly when it is also very hot. One thing that always bothered me about living in a humid climate is that you can never open the doors and windows of your house and let the air circulate; your house is hermetically sealed — like a coffin. (We aired out our place last weekend. Most of the day there was a dry 74-degree breeze blowing through.)

It is never humid in Irvine.

Wet

We get very little rain in Southern California, so we rarely have to change our plans due to the weather. When I lived in other areas, I always had to make back-up plans in case the weather changed. I spent far too many weekends watching rented movies as the cold and the rain ruined my plans for fun. Also, the lack of rain means fewer molds, pollens, mosquitoes, and other problems and pests of excessive rainfall.

I have always thought Eugene, Oregon, looked like a nice place. I caught part of a football game played there recently. It was cold and overcast, and there was a light mist. The announcers of the game said it had rained for 18 consecutive days there. WetTF! So much for Eugene, Oregon.

It rarely rains in Irvine.

Storms

I have lived in areas where tornadoes, hurricanes, intense thunderstorms and dramatic changes in temperature were common. I can remember one afternoon in Texas when a cold front came through and reduced the outdoor temperature by about 40 degrees in a few hours. I have evacuated to avoid hurricanes, hid in the basement to escape tornadoes, and experienced thunderstorms so intense that water seemed to fall in sheets from the sky.

We don’t get big storms in Irvine.

California Perfect

Coastal California has a narrow band of temperature variation with highs ranging from the 60s in the winter to the 70s in the summer. The closer you are to the ocean, the narrower this band of temperatures becomes. We have low humidity and little rainfall, and the closest we come to a storm is the Santa Ana winds that occasionally blow hot air out of the deserts.

The daily weather experience is fantastic. The mornings here are beautiful as we generally get a cozy blanket of clouds that keeps the morning cool. It isn’t a depressing overcast (except for May Gray and June Gloom) because we all know the clouds will burn off by late morning, and we will be bathed in sunlight the rest of the day. If you live close enough to the water, there is a sea breeze that takes the edge off a sunny summer day. The evenings are generally cool and crisp often requiring warmer clothing. I don’t own a heavy winter coat or boots anymore.

The best thing about living in a perfect climate is getting out to enjoy it. We have year-round outdoor activities with little worries about seasonality or bad weather days. I can’t remember the last time we had to change the family’s plans due to the weather.

You do get very sensitive to small changes in temperature when you live in a perfect climate; eighty degrees is hellish hot, and sixty degrees is an Arctic blast. It is the Goldilocks climate.

As I mentioned in the opening, I own a convertible, and I rarely put the top up. There are times I will run the heater in the morning or the AC in the afternoon to take the edge off, but I still greet the morning air in January or the afternoon air in August with the top down and the wind in my hair. I couldn’t do that living anywhere else.

Add Value?

Does this great climate add value to Coastal California real estate? Indirectly, it certainly does. Many wealthy and powerful people make our area their home because of the weather, and they build companies and stimulate the economy by their presence. This raises everyone’s standard of living through higher wages, higher rents, and higher home prices.

Are home prices higher because “everyone wants to live here?” No, but believing that is true makes people feel good and perhaps feel a bit superior. Many people really would like to enjoy our climate, but without a good job, the cost of living is so high that being here wouldn’t be very fun or desirable.

The climate is one of the main reasons I live here, and I am not alone. I knowingly sacrifice my standard of living to be here (there are plenty of McMansions I could afford elsewhere). Perhaps the effect of people like me adds some value to real estate, but the phenomenon would be very difficult to measure.

Added value or not, I plan to stay here and enjoy this climate as long as I can.

We have perfect weather in Irvine.

104 Capeberry   Irvine, CA 92603  kitchen

Asking Price: $1,399,000

Income Requirement: $349,750

Downpayment Needed: $279,800

Purchase Price: $976,500

Purchase Date: 12/15/2004

Address: 104 Capeberry Irvine, CA 92603

Beds: 4
Baths: 5
Sq. Ft.: 3,050
$/Sq. Ft.: $459
Lot Size: 6,680

Sq. Ft.

Property Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Tuscan
Stories: 2
View: Hills
Year Built: 2004
Community: Quail Hill
County: Orange
MLS#: S584010
Source: SoCalMLS
Status: Active
On Redfin: 6 days

Gourmet Kitchen Award

Beautiful Tuscan style home in desirable Chantilly. Located near the
end of a quiet cul-de-sac street, this home features a bright, open
floor plan w/high ceilings, designer paint colors, rich crown moulding,
gorgeous porcelain tile downstairs & patterned nylon carpeting up.
Custom drapery & window treatments give a very elegant look.
Gourmet kitchen has lrg center island w/veggie sink, 6 burner gas range
w/hood, upgraded SS appliances, dark wood cabinetry & granite
countertops. Spacious great room has built-in ent center, speaker
system & elevated stone fireplace. Large formal dining room &
attached 2 room+bath guest suite w/int & ext french doors. Outer
room (office) can also be an opt 5th bedroom. Gorgeous wrought iron
stair rails lead upstairs to master suite & 2 spacious secondary
bedrooms w/upgraded private baths. Master bath has marble tile counters
& surrounds, separate shower, jetted tub, & walk-in closet.
Spectacular park-like back yard features elevated

Everything is gorgeous…

These WTF listing prices are evidence that the housing bubble has not played itself out yet. As long as there are homeowners who really believe their properties have appreciated 40% since late 2004, we are not at a bottom. A spring rally brings out the clueless dreamers.

At least they get to enjoy the great weather….