Category Archives: Short Sale

Dust in the Windrow

The City of Irvine boasts nearly 20,000 tall Eucalyptus trees forming a series of windbreaks. Today’s owner from 4 Windrow thinks the market winds have changed and people are ready to pay $500K for old condos.

4 WINDROW Irvine, CA 92618 kitchen

Irvine Home Address … 4 WINDROW Irvine, CA 92618
Resale Home Price …… $498,000

{book1}

Dust in the wind,
all we are is dust in the wind

Kansas Dust in the Wind[Now] Don’t hang on,
nothing lasts forever but the earth and sky
It slips away,
and all your money won’t another minute buy.

Dust in the wind,
all we are is dust in the wind
Dust in the wind,
everything is dust in the wind.

Dust in the Wind — Kansas

Have you noticed the rows of Eucalyptus trees crossing Irvine in many places? According to Wikimapia:

In Irvine, there are currently about 12,500 eucalyptus trees on private
property (either The Irvine Company land or HOA property) and about
5,700 trees on public property. These are arranged in 38 windrows,
stretching predominantly in northwest-southeast direction, parallel to
Santa Ana Mountains. The trees were originally intended as windbreakers
to protect the citrus groves from the Santa Ana winds blowing from the
mountains. As of today, the windrows have no agricultural use since the
citrus growing industry that gave name to Orange county has left Irvine.https://www.irvinehousingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/06/img_6368.JPG

The
oldest of Irvine’s windrow eucalyptus trees were planted by George
Irvine in the late 1800s. Another round of planting occurred between
1920 and 1940, again for agricultural purposes. As of 2009, the trees
are roughly between 70 and 100 years old. The lifespan of Eucalyptus
globulus, which are native to Australia and had to be imported, ranges
from 50 to 150 years, dependent on growing conditions, soils, and
overall care.

Irvine windrow trees were generally neglected for
their first 30 to 60 years. As agricultural windbreaks, they received
minimal care. When orchards were replaced with row crops, the
eucalyptus trees were considered to block sunlight and reduce harvest.
They were, as a result, routinely damaged from improper pruning
practices. The trees were not provided supplemental irrigation, but
opportunistically took advantage of crop irrigation. As agricultural
fields were converted to urban development, the trees again were often
damaged or encroached upon during grading and construction. Following
development, the trees have been provided a much higher level of care
and maintenance.

The City ordinance prohibits removal of any
eucalyptus trees that are part of the windrows, whether on public or
private property, without an explicit permission from the City.

These Eucalyptus tree windrows are one of the few pre-development features that still exists in Irvine. Just as the trees briefly slow the dust in the wind, people come and go from Irvine houses. In the bigger picture of cosmic time, our moment in these houses is just as ephemeral.

4 WINDROW Irvine, CA 92618 kitchen

Irvine Home Address … 4 WINDROW Irvine, CA 92618

Resale Home Price … $498,000

Income Requirement ……. $102,647
Downpayment Needed … $99,600
20% Down Conventional

Home Purchase Price … $530,000
Home Purchase Date …. 11/29/2004

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $(61,880)
Percent Change ………. -6.0%
Annual Appreciation … -1.2%

Mortgage Interest Rate ………. 4.96%
Monthly Mortgage Payment … $2,129
Monthly Cash Outlays ………… $2,780
Monthly Cost of Ownership … $2,230

Property Details for 4 WINDROW Irvine, CA 92618

Beds 2
Baths 1 full 1 part baths
Size 1,450 sq ft
($343 / sq ft)
Lot Size 2,739 sq ft
Year Built 1977
Days on Market 2
Listing Updated 11/25/2009
MLS Number S597251
Property Type Single Family, Residential
Community Orangetree
Tract Ph

According to the listing agent, this listing may be a pre-foreclosure or short sale.

Best of both worlds… detached homes with low maintenance yards and HOA ammenities … less land but well used so yard and patio are enclosed for privacy while grassy front yard is rolling lawn maintained by HOA. Living room with vaulted cathedral ceilings has double patio doors overlooking the rose garden and yard. Spacious kitchen has remodeled Euro-style cabinets with big island cooking area and breakfast bar. Direct access to laundry in garage and dining room/family kitchen with corner windows onto yard. Master suite is the only room perched above overlooking living room and corner windows over the yard. 2 Bedrooms down and next to bath. One has double door entry for use as work at home office or den or library.

Worst of both worlds… small and expensive.

Is this what affordability in Irvine is about? Should a family making $100K a year with $100K in savings be content to live here? Is every other buyer looking at nicer properties making more money and have more savings? I find it incomprehensible that a small, old condo in a spotty neighborhood (by Irvine standards) should cost a half-million dollars.

Twiggy

Today we have a beautiful high-end home short selling for a significant loss.

35 TWIGGS Irvine, CA 92620 kitchen

Irvine Home Address … 35 TWIGGS Irvine, CA 92620
Resale Home Price …… $1,250,000

{book1}

You’ve been walking,
You’ve been hiding,
And you look half dead half the time.
Monitoring you, like machines do,
You’ve still got it I’m just keeping an eye.

Headlock — Imogen Heap

This beautiful home sits empty (like the heads of many supermodels or any of the Real Housewives). There are no occupants, nobody paying on the note, and no particular urgency on the part of lenders to change the status quo. The resources poured into this structure are sitting idle. It is a complete waste to society, yet here it is along with hundreds of thousands of properties nationwide.

I recently attended the Building Industry Show. Several of the seminars were very bearish, and there was much discussion about what the banks are going to do with all the defaults. The discussion was interesting because it wasn’t focused on whether or not there is a massive inventory problem coming — everyone accepted that — the discussion focused on what the lenders were going to do about it.

There was much frustration in the room because most industry watchers believe the banks are managing their foreclosure inventory by failing to initiate foreclosure proceedings; in other words, lenders are managing the problem by creating shadow inventory. Whenever there is a problem with a loan: defer. Their entire strategy is to delay dealing with the problem until appreciation bails them out.

There is a big problem with the solution of waiting for appreciation; since the shadow inventory is very large, and the holders of it are competitors in a cartel, there will be a huge incentive for the healthiest banks with the least amount of toxic mortgages to foreclose and take their losses while prices are still inflated. Those sellers that wait for higher prices will find lower prices instead. This will go on until the inventory of toxic mortgages is purged from the system.

Can lenders hold up prices by withholding inventory? Or will the instability of the cartel arrangement break down our current support?

35 TWIGGS Irvine, CA 92620 kitchen

Irvine Home Address … 35 TWIGGS Irvine, CA 92620

Resale Home Price … $1,250,000

Income Requirement ……. $258,825
Downpayment Needed … $250,000
20% Down Conventional

Home Purchase Price … $1,441,000
Home Purchase Date …. 11/8/2005

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $(266,000)
Percent Change ………. -13.3%
Annual Appreciation … -3.3%

Mortgage Interest Rate ………. 5.00%
Monthly Mortgage Payment … $5,368
Monthly Cash Outlays ………… $7,190
Monthly Cost of Ownership … $5,270

Property Details for 35 TWIGGS Irvine, CA 92620

Beds 4
Baths 4 full 1 part baths
Size 3,833 sq ft
($326 / sq ft)
Lot Size 7,166 sq ft
Year Built 2005
Days on Market 8
Listing Updated 11/11/2009
MLS Number S595753
Property Type Single Family, Residential
Community Woodbury
Tract Wdjb

According to the listing agent, this listing may be a pre-foreclosure or short sale.

This Beautiful Juliet’s Balcony Home will Capture the Romantic and Sophisticated Feelings Inspired by those who Embrace the World Around Them. The Entry Features a Custom Made, Cast Iron Gate leading to an Open Courtyard. Entry Foyer leads to Formal Dining Room and Living Room. Living Room French Doors, opens onto a Peaceful Loggia. Gourmet Kitchen with Too Many Upgrades, include Viking Professional Series Stainless Steel Appliances, Dual Ovens, Dishwasher, Center Island with Extra Sink, Euro Designer Cabinets and Granite Coutertops. Kitchen overlooks the Morning Room and Family Room. Tranquil Master Bedroom with Ceiling Fan, includes His and Hers Walk-in Closets. All Other Bedrooms, each have their own Bathrooms. Upgraded Flooring includes Travertine, Distressed Hardwood Floors and Berber Carpets. Details from Plantation Shutters, to the Crown Mouldings, are Spectacular. Professionally Landscaped with Built-in BBQ.

Gourmet Kitchen AwardCapture the Romantic and Sophisticated Feelings Inspired by those who Embrace the World Around Them… Flowery flatulence.

Why Title Case?

This property was purchased on 11/8/2005 for $1,441,000. The owner used a $1,008,650 first mortgage, a $288,000 second mortgage and a $144,350 downpayment. The downpayment is gone, and the second is going to be shorted.

Happy Thanksgiving

Turkey

I want to wish you a happy Thanksgiving Holiday. The IHB will have posts as usual, so if you are looking for your real estate fix, you can find it here.

Enjoy your Holiday weekend.

Knives Out

Today’s featured property is a wisely motivated seller. He will take a loss on this 2004 purchase.

50 MAGELLAN AISLE Irvine, CA 92620 kitchen

Irvine Home Address … 50 MAGELLAN AISLE Irvine, CA 92620
Resale Home Price …… $458,000

{book1}

I want you to knowhttp://www.crackthecode.us/images/IWantYouToCatchThisKnife.jpg
He’s not coming back
Look into my eyes
I’m not coming back

So knives out
Catch the m(h)ouse
Don’t look down

Knives Out — Radiohead

This owner should not be selling. Prices are well off the peak, and the knife-catching bulls are chanting in bloody unison, “Prices have bottomed. Buy now or be priced out forever.”

Apparently, this owner does not believe the bullish tale, or perhaps he has other reasons for selling, but here he is priced to take a loss five years after buying.

50 MAGELLAN AISLE Irvine, CA 92620 kitchen

Irvine Home Address … 50 MAGELLAN AISLE Irvine, CA 92620

Resale Home Price … $458,000 https://www.irvinehousingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/images/uploads/200991/knife-catcher.gif

Income Requirement ……. $86,226
Downpayment Needed … $91,600

Home Purchase Price … $468,000
Home Purchase Date …. 12/2/2004

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $(37,480)
Percent Change ………. -2.1%
Annual Appreciation … -0.4%

Mortgage Interest Rate ………. 5.20%
Monthly Mortgage Payment … $2,012
Monthly Cash Outlays ………… $2,690
Monthly Cost of Ownership … $2,050

Property Details for 50 MAGELLAN AISLE Irvine, CA 92620

Beds 3
Baths 2 baths
Size 1,425 sq ft
($321 / sq ft)
Lot Size n/a
Year Built 1989
Days on Market 4
Listing Updated 11/3/2009
MLS Number P709645
Property Type Condominium, Residential
Community Northwood
Tract Nv

Wonderful Northwood Villa’s main level home boasts a very functional floor plan. Third bedroom is currently used as a office. Home was been recently updated & upgraded. Living room is extra spacious with a cozy fireplace. Designer kitchen is complete with upgraded cabinets, granite counter tops, and tile floors. Dining area is adjacent to kitchen with sliding doors that lead you out to the back patio. Tasetefully upgraded floors is gorgeous wood. Enjoy designer tone paint & crown molding. Nice size back patio is perfect for entertaining & BBQ’s. Enjoy the convinience of 2 garages; 1 car attached and 1 car detached. Attend award winning Northwood Schools. Home is conviniently located near dining, shopping, & much more.

Tasetefully? convinience? conviniently?

This property was purchased on 12/2/2004 for $468,000. The owner used a $374,400 first mortgage, a $93,600 second mortgage, and a $0 downpayment. The owner refinanced in 2007, but did not take out any money. Now he will likely be shorting the second mortgage. With the beating his credit is going to take, he should have maxed out the HELOC back in 2006. The responsible do not get rewarded.

Revealed

Today we have a property emerging from shadow inventory. Also, I want to invite everyone to our next IHB Block Party from 6:30-10:00 on Monday, November 9, 2009, at JT Schmids at the District.

13 CHRISTAMON EAST Irvine, CA 92620 front 13 CHRISTAMON EAST Irvine, CA 92620 kitchen

Irvine Home Address … 13 CHRISTAMON EAST Irvine, CA 92620
Resale Home Price …… $714,800

{book1}

Oh let the sun beat down upon my face
With stars to fill my dream.
I am a traveler of both time and space
To be where I have been.

To sit with elders of a gentle race
This world has seldom seen.
They talk of days for which they sit and wait
When all will be revealed.

Kashmir — Led Zeppelin

All will be revealed in time. It is fun to speculate on where prices will go and when they will get there. I have an educated guess as to where real estate market prices are going, and I stand behind my analysis and predictions.

I have a few guidelines and an understanding of market relationships that has proven successful in the past. I was posting on this blog as either a commenter or a writer since late 2006. I was bearish then, and drawing on the collective wisdom of the bubble blog community, I began expounding a bearish point of view.

It was easy to be bearish in 2006. An analysis based on conventional financing showed the market pricing was ridiculous, and when you connected the dots between ARM resets, the credit crunch, foreclosures and lower prices, it was rational to be bearish. People caught up in the emotional frenzy, and those that counted on the stability of Option ARM financing — which was most people — were bullish. Kool-aid intoxication has an enormous appeal.

It has only been over the last year that signs have been at all ambiguous. The Federal Reserve’s unprecedented manipulation of the mortgage market has certainly created some mixed signals.

Payment affordability in Irvine is actually reasonable. If you look over the hill at Riverside County, payment affordability is very high, but this is accomplished through market manipulation. How do you forecast the impact of this? How long will this go on? This is no longer a market event, it is a political one.

The price drop of the early 90s must have been much more difficult to predict, particularly the 94-97 stage. The market was choppy and signals were mixed during this period much like the next three years will be.

Over time, a fuller picture of the inventory problem will come out. The degree of market overhang will vary by location, and there may be isolated pockets where high pricing at very low volumes is maintained. Will Irvine emerge unscathed? I doubt it.

13 CHRISTAMON EAST Irvine, CA 92620 front 13 CHRISTAMON EAST Irvine, CA 92620 kitchen

Irvine Home Address … 13 CHRISTAMON EAST Irvine, CA 92620

Resale Home Price … $714,800

Income Requirement ……. $133,063
Downpayment Needed … $142,960

Home Purchase Price … $603,457
Home Purchase Date …. 7/29/2008

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $68,455
Percent Change ………. 18.5%
Annual Appreciation … 12.8%

Monthly Mortgage Payment … $3,105
Monthly Cash Outlays ………… $4,030
Monthly Cost of Ownership … $3,030

Redfin Property Details for 13 CHRISTAMON EAST Irvine, CA 92620

Beds 4
Baths 2 full 1 part baths
Size 2,474 sq ft
($289 / sq ft)
Lot Size 5,661 sq ft
Year Built 1979
Days on Market 4
Listing Updated 11/4/2009
MLS Number S594917
Property Type Single Family, Residential
Community Northwood
Tract Pp

According to the listing agent, this listing is a bank owned (foreclosed) property.

Open floor plan with new carpet and paint throughout the home gives the home a fresh feel. Spacious and airy kitchen with eating area. Formal dining room adjacent to the living room. Fireplace in the family room. Huge bonus room upstairs great for office or play room. Inside Laudry, Large yard great for entertaining. Cul-de-Sac street. Seller will be replacing the roof in the month of November. Great Value on this REO Home. All Bedroom upstairs. House to be tented and new roof to be installed. Offers will be reviewed after work is done.

The property was purchased back in 2003 for less than $500,000. After some refinances and general HELOC abuse, he managed to pull out over $200,000. Then his Option ARM blew up…

Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 05/05/2008
Document Type: Notice of Sale (aka Notice of Trustee’s Sale)

Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 02/19/2008
Document Type: Notice of Sale (aka Notice of Trustee’s Sale)

Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 02/19/2008
Document Type: Notice of Sale (aka Notice of Trustee’s Sale)

Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 01/28/2008
Document Type: Notice of Default

Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 11/09/2007
Document Type: Notice of Default

Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 11/09/2007
Document Type: Notice of Default

Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 07/20/2007
Document Type: Notice of Rescission

Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 07/09/2007
Document Type: Notice of Sale (aka Notice of Trustee’s Sale)

Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 04/02/2007
Document Type: Notice of Default

This guy defaulted before I started writing for this blog. He dragged out the process and it finally went back to the bank — over a year ago.

Do you see where shadow inventory comes from? Is this owner the exception or the rule?

Irvine Housing Blog No Kool Aid

I hope you have enjoyed this week, and thank you for reading the Irvine Housing Blog: astutely observing
the Irvine home market and combating California Kool-Aid since
September 2006.

Have a great weekend,

Irvine Renter

😉

The Market Sleeps

The market is entering a restful period waiting for the arrival of shadow inventory.

8 NEW SEASON Irvine, CA 92602 kitchen

Irvine Home Address … 8 NEW SEASON Irvine, CA 92602
Resale Home Price …… $375,000

Block Party 11-9-2009

{book1}

Near the village the peaceful village
The lion sleeps tonight

Near the village the quiet village
The lion sleeps tonight

Hush my darling don’t fear my darling
The lion sleeps tonight
Hush my darling don’t fear my darling
The lion sleeps tonight

The Lion Sleeps Tonight — The Tokens

The market is entering its winter hibernation. Transaction volumes are falling as part of the usual seasonal pattern; however, I suspect this winter will be a little different than the norm. We are entering the winter on below normal volume despite the apparent increase off last years record lows. There are a number of buyers who did not complete their purchases during the main buying season, so we will have some left-over demand from the summer to keep up volumes over the winter.

The circumstances today will persist indefinitely or until new supply shocks the system:

  • limited supply
  • unsatisfied demand
  • very low interest rates
  • high payment affordability
  • inflated prices
  • below normal volumes
  • huge overhang of foreclosure supply
  • high unemployment that is getting worse

The first four conditions are very bullish, but the last four are not. I am of the opinion that the negatives outweigh the positives and prices will continue to fall. Being bullish is not always a good thing….

BTW, I was emailed a press release from our Attorney General, Edmund G. Brown. Apparently he is quite worried about ARM resets,

“Homeowners with Pay Option ARMs are sitting on ticking time bombs that
the lending industry has the power to defuse,” Brown said. “Unless
these banks and loan servicers act quickly, hundreds of thousands of
mortgages will reset across the state, creating a new wave of
foreclosures.”

8 NEW SEASON Irvine, CA 92602 kitchen

Irvine Home Address … 8 NEW SEASON Irvine, CA 92602

Resale Home Price … $375,000

Income Requirement ……. $69,808
Downpayment Needed … $75,000

Home Purchase Price … $530,500
Home Purchase Date …. 3/20/2006

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $(178,000)
Percent Change ………. -29.3%
Annual Appreciation … -8.3%

Monthly Mortgage Payment … $1,629
Monthly Cash Outlays ………… $2,160
Monthly Cost of Ownership … $1,630

Redfin Property Details for 8 NEW SEASON Irvine, CA 92602

Beds 2
Baths 2 full 1 part baths
Size 1,187 sq ft
($316 / sq ft)
Lot Size n/a
Year Built 2005
Days on Market 2
Listing Updated 10/28/2009
MLS Number S594319
Property Type Condominium, Residential
Community Northwood
Tract Tamr

According to the listing agent, this listing may be a pre-foreclosure or short sale.

YOU WILL LOVE this sophisticated, split-level townhome, from the CUSTOM flagstone entry, stairs, and patio, to the INVITING interior with GORGEOUS marble flooring, crown molding, plantation shutters, recessed lighting, custom in-ceiling speakers for home-theatre surround-sound, stainless steel appliances, in-home laundry, attached 2-car garage, AND TWO master suites. NO ONE ABOVE OR BELOW….does NOT BACK to I-5 or Culver Drive. Just a block from Lower Peters Canyon Park, and steps to Tamarisk Community Pool, Spa, tennis courts, & BBQ. Close to Tustin Marketplace! ALL THREE Tustin schools are CALIFORNIA DISTINGUISHED SCHOOLS, scoring very high on API. This is your chance to live in a very DESIREABLE, NEWER neighborhood, built in 2005-2006. You MUST see this beautiful home!

WHY did the agent USE random CAPITALIZATION?

This was not the best speculative effort of 2006 from the lender’s perspective, but the buyer used 100% financing and even managed to get some HELOC money despite buying very near the peak.

  • The property was purchased on 3/20/2006 for $530,500. The owner used a $424,300 first mortgage, a $106,050 HELOC and a $150 downpayment (it technically was not 100% financing).
  • On 12/5/2006 he refinanced the first mortgage for $464,000 and took out another HELOC for $78,000.
  • On 4/5/2007 he managed to increase the HELOC to $116,000.
  • Total property debt is $580,000.
  • Total mortgage equity withdrawal is $49,500.

Not a bad take considering how bad the timing was. Do you think this owner is sitting in his rental plotting his return to HELOC riches?