A PROMISE to California,
Or inland to the great pastoral Plains, and on to Puget sound and Oregon;
Sojourning east a while longer, soon I travel toward you, to remain,
to teach robust American love,
For I know very well that I and robust love belong among you,
inland, and along the Western sea;
For these States tend inland and toward the Western sea, and I will also.
Walt Whitman – Leaves of Grass
The dream of riches in California real estate is a Siren’s Song to many with a robust love of money. Unfortunately for the rollbacks I am featuring today — 3 Woodleaf and 28 Meadowgrass — the lure of easy money caused them to crash on the rocks.
Asking Price: $449,900
Purchase Price: $469,000
Purchase Date: 10/24/2005
Address: 3 Woodleaf, Irvine, CA 92604
Beds: 2
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 1,140
Year Built: 1982
Stories: 1
Type: Condominium
View: Trees/Woods
County: Orange
Neighborhood: Woodbridge
$/Sq. Ft.: $395
MLS#: M104975
Status: Active on market
On Redfin: 161 days
Unsold in 90+ days
From Redfin, “Upper End Unit – Tree Views – Newer Carpet, Tile Floor, Microwave & In terior Paint, Plantation Shutters – Shows Like A Model Truly Turnkey – Large Rooms – 2 Master Suites – Close To Schools, Shopping & Freeways – Lake – Pool & Spa – Very Clean & Bright – Scraped Ceilings – Mirrored Wardrobes – Storage Area -“
Tree views? So now if you have a tree out your window, you have a view? What next, air views?
.
.
In the post, Wish Upon a Fallingstar, we showed comps for condos like this are going for $400,000 or less. This is about $50,000 overpriced if they really want to sell it. That fact aside, if they somehow manage to get their asking price, they still stand to lose $46,094 assuming a 6% commission. I am estimating this loss will be closer to $100,000 by the time they sell it. Losing $50,000 to $100,000 on a condo for which the seller paid less than $500,000 is a huge loss.
Asking Price: $710,000
Purchase Price: $730,000
Purchase Date: 4/29/2005
Address: 28 Meadowgrass, Irvine, CA 92604
Beds: 3
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 1,545
Lot Sq. Ft.: 4,512
Year Built: 1977
Stories: 1
Type: Single Family Residence
County: Orange
Neighborhood: Woodbridge
$/Sq. Ft.: $460
MLS#: S486737
Status: Active on market
On Redfin: 51 days
From Redfin, “Nestled in the prestigious Woodbridge community and steps to the Stone Creek Swim Club, this home is upgraded throughout. Brazilian cherrywood floors highlight the open floor plan that includes separate dining and huge family room, breakfast nook, atrium, and step-down sitting area with cozy fireplace. Gourmet kitchen includes granite counters, recessed lighting and stainless steel appliances. Large professionally landscaped yard with slate patio, raised planters, and sculptured vegetation. “
.
.
We saw a good comparable for this property in Woodbridge Knife-Catchers. 52 Shearwater, Irvine, CA 92604 sold on 3/29/2007 for $629,000. What chance does this seller have of getting $710? Again, even if this sells for asking price, the seller still stands to lose $62,600 after commissions. I am estimating the ultimate loss to be closer to $150,000 based on the recent comp sale.
As you can plainly see, we are rolling back all of 2005 and we are now back into 2004 pricing. Personally, I am amazed at how fast this is happening. Real estate markets usually do not collapse this quickly. Don’t look at the wishing prices, pay attention to the transactions. This market is deteriorating fast.
