Finding a loser in the Collage complex in Northwood is like finding trees in the forest: wherever you look, you find more. Zovall has profiled this place on a number of occasions:

1. Collage – Northwood – The second casualty in this complex,
2. Collage – Northwood, We’ve got a WINNER! – UPDATE #3,
3. Buy 1 bedroom and get a second for free (or almost)!

It is always nice to start off the week with a rollback well off its 2004 purchase price. Will we be seeing 2003 soon?

Prices are falling — Timberrrrr…

Asking Price: $440,000

Purchase Price: $474,000

Purchase Date: 8/27/2004

Address: 1520 Timberwood, Irvine, CA 92620

Beds: 2

Baths: 1

Sq. Ft.: 1,270

$/Sq. Ft.: $346

Lot Size: –

Year Built: 2001

Stories: 3

Type: Condominium

View: Peek-A-Boo

County: Orange

Neighborhood: Northwood

MLS#: S486596

Status: Active

On Redfin: 70 days

Fixer-upper

From Redfin, “This is just a great location and beautiful complex! Your client will thank you for your hard work, their gain. Property needs TLC! Carpet and paint is all it takes. Large dog on premises”

“Your client will thank you for your hard work, their gain.” What is that about? Is this a realtor talking to another realtor? Why will their client gain from buying a run down condo? Are they implying the price is so low that it is a bargain? Are they trying to find a knife catcher? If it is a true fixer-upper I suspect it needs more than just carpet and paint.

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Perhaps this was purchased as a specu-vestment. The owner either trashed the place himself or put a renter in there who trashed the place for him. Given that he utilized 100% financing, he probably doesn’t care. The bank can clean up his mess. Whatever the case, if this seller gets full asking price, either he or the bank stands to lose $60,400 on a property purchased in 2004.

Keep on rollin’ those prices back…

Rollin’ Rollin’ Rollin’

Keep movin’, movin’, movin’,

Though they’re disapprovin’,

Keep them doggies movin’ Rawhide!

Link to Blues Brothers performing Rawhide.

The Aldea tract built was by California Pacific Homes. It is located at the corner of Valley Oak Drive and Barranca Parkway. We have featured this tract on other occasions: Aldea – Oak Creek Detached Condo and Aldea – Oak Creek Detached Condo – UPDATE #1.

There are a number of properties for sale in this neighborhood, and one distressed seller who is going to lose a lot of money.

Asking Price: $600,000

Purchase Price: $605,000

Purchase Date: 7/29/2005

Address: 9 Alevera, Irvine, CA 92618

Beds: 2

Baths: 2.5

Sq. Ft.: 1,030

$/Sq. Ft.: $583

Lot Size: –

Year Built: 2003

Stories: 2

Type: Condominium

County: Orange

Neighborhood: Oak Creek

MLS#: S489605

Status: Active

On Redfin: 46 days

From Redfin, “California Pacific Former MODEL Plan 1.Each bedroom is a nice size sui te w/ its own full bath. UPGRADES GALORE * * * Includes 400 Sqft. Enclosed Outdoor Living Structure w/ Integrated Speaker System, Ceiling fan, Cable TV and Outomated Irrig. System. Corian Kitchen Counters, Stainless Steal GE Appliances, Walk-in Pantry, Build-in Audio System, Upgraded Flooring, Euro Style Custom Buld-ins Living Room & Both Bedrooms, Custom Paint & Wall Paper, Custom Brick Wall in Living Room * * * Resort Style Living++”

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I guess we are moving away from exclamation points to asterisks and plus signs?

At $583 SF, this is clearly in WTF price territory, but the real question I have to ask is: “WTF were you thinking when you paid almost $600 SF back in 2005?” This property is never going to sell for this price as we will see when we look at the competition, but assuming they get their asking price, and assuming a 6% commission, they stand to lose $41,000. In the real world (where prices reflect the market), this seller is probably going to lose closer to $100,000.

Here is a close comparable…

Asking Price: $569,000

Purchase Price: $280,000 ?

Purchase Date: unknown

Address: 46 Alevera, Irvine, CA 92618

Beds: 2

Baths: 2.5

Sq. Ft.: 1,050

$/Sq. Ft.: $542

Lot Size: –

Year Built: 2002

Stories: 2

Type: Condominium

County: Orange

Neighborhood: Oak Creek

MLS#: S490707

Status: Active

On Redfin: 36 days

From Redfin, “Outstanding DETACHED HOME in Prime location of Irvine’s Beautiful Oak Creek, Featuring 2 Beedrooms and 2 1/2 Baths w/ Patio and 2 car garage w/ Direct Access. This TURNKEY Property has many Upgrades of New Flooring, New Carpeting, New Paint, Gourmet Kitchen w/ New Stainless Steel Appliances and Fine Cabinetry, Plus Epoxy Finishing in Garage. Enjoy Resort-Style Amenities of Pools, Spas, Parks and Tennis. This is Truly a Home You’ve Been Waiting For. Near Award Winning Schools, Fwys, and Great Shopping.”

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This listing has some of the worst photos I have seen in a while. Looks like a camera phone, only worse. Another Gourmet kitchen with white tile…

So here we have a property with the same floorplan which is being offered for $31,000 less, and at $542 SF, it is also overpriced.

Let’s see what else you can get in this neighborhood…

Price: $629,900

68 ALEVERA

Irvine, CA 92618

Beds: 3

Baths: 2.5

Sq. Ft.: 1,300

$/Sq. Ft.: $485

Lot Size: –

Year Built: 2002

Stories: 2

Type: Condominium

County: Orange

Neighborhood: Oak Creek

MLS#: P579931

Status: Active

On Redfin: 41 days

PRICE REDUCTION FOR FAST SALE * * EXCELLENT QUIET INSIDE LOCATION * * IMMACULATE CONDITION * * SPACIOUS KITCHEN W/ WHITE CABINET * * SPACIOUS FORMAL DINING AREA * * ROMANTIC ARCH ENTRY * * TRUELY 3 BEDROOMS * * ALL GOOD SIZE BEDROOMS UPSTAIRS * * GOOD SIZE BACKYARD W/ COZY LANDSCAPING * * SPACIOUS MASTER BEDROOM W/ WALK-IN CLOSET * * SPACIOUS MASTER BATH W/ ROMAN TUB & SHOWER STALL * * PRICED TO SELL * * MUST SEE * *

ALL CAPS and astericks ***** GREAT !!!

Comparing this property to 9 Alevera, I get 300 SF more and an additional bedroom for $29,000. Hmmm…

Price: $649,900

59 ALEVERA ST

Irvine, CA 92618

Beds: 3

Baths: 2.5

Sq. Ft.: 1,497

$/Sq. Ft.: $434

Lot Size: –

Year Built: 2002

Stories: 2

Type: Condominium

County: Orange

Neighborhood: Oak Creek

MLS#: S484851

Status: Active

On Redfin: 79 days

NEW PRICE REDUCTION! BEST VALUE IN THE AREA! Beautiful detached home in a quiet/secluded area. Bright and open with lots of grades. Gourmet kitchen features plenty of oak cabinets, walk-in pantry and recessed lighting. Three spacious bedrooms, master suite/w walk in closet. The downstains den is perfect for a home office. Award Winning Schools, Close to all freeways/tollroads, Amtrack/Metrolink, The Spectrum, UCI Campus, Dining and Entertaiment.

New price reduction! Hurray! Lots of grades (I hope they were “A”s), and a gourmet kitchen to boot.

Compared to 9 Alevera, this property gives you a 450 SF more space and an additional bedroom for $50K, and it appears this property is not finished reducing its price either.

In short, the seller at 9 Alevera is going to be a loser.

Rallies don’t last forever, despite what realtors may say. This seller was hoping he was making hay while the sun shines, but he was late to the harvest, and now he is a 2004 rollback.

Asking Price: $599,900

Purchase Price: $600,000

Purchase Date: 6/1/2004

Address: 172 Hayward, Irvine, CA 92602

Beds: 3

Baths: 2

Sq. Ft.: 1,588

Year Built: 2001

Stories: 3

Type: Condominium

County: Orange

Neighborhood: Northpark

$/Sq. Ft.: $378

MLS#: S479574

Status: Active on market

On Redfin: 110 days

Unsold in 90+ days

From Redfin, “IMMACULATE HOME IN GATE GAURDED COMMUNITY OF NORTHPARK. .. SHOWS VERY NICE. .. UPGRADED THROUGHOUT WITH HARDWOOD FLOORS IN LIVING ROOM, KITCHEN AND ALL BEDROOMS. .. THRIRD BEDROOM IS USED AS AN OFFICE WITH ANICE BUILT-INS. .. GOURMET KITCHEN WITH COIAN COUNTERTOP AND FULL BACK SPLASH AND GE APPLIANCES. .. . PLANTATION SHUUTERS, CLOSET ORGANIZERS AND MUCH MUCH MORE. .”

Do realtors have a spell checker? And what is an ANICE?

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I am finding more and more of these 2004 rollbacks. Assuming a 6% commission, and assuming a property that has sat on the market for 110 days sells at its asking price, this seller is going to lose $36,094 on a 2004 purchase. Do you think this person was told, “prices won’t crash, they might level out for a while, but they won’t actually DROP.” Well, this seller seems to be stubbornly holding to the flatline. I have a news flash for them, “Prices do drop.”

In Irvine, the trees are always greener, and like Lake Wobegon, “the women are strong, the men are good looking, and all the children are above average.” After all, everyone wants to live here; which is, of course, why house prices will never go down in Irvine. Except maybe here…

Asking Price: $618,800

Purchase Price: $645,000

Purchase Date: 4/25/2005

Address: 4661 Green Tree Lane, Irvine, CA 92612

Beds: 3

Baths: 1.75

Sq. Ft.: 1,560

Year Built: 1969

Stories: 1

Type: Condominium

View: Other

County: Orange

Neighborhood: University Park

$/Sq. Ft.: $397

MLS#: S479186

Status: Active on market

On Redfin: 105 days

Unsold in 90+ days

On Redfin, “UNBELIVERABLE PRICE , VIEW OF GREENBELT , 3 BEDROOM 1.75 BATH OPEN CATHERAL CEILING LIVING ROOM W/ INVITED FIREPLACE, FORMAL DINING ROOM, KITCHEN WITH VIEW OF YARD AND GREENBELT. MASTER BEDROOM WITH PRIVATE PATIO. U. C. IRVINE, UNIVERSITY HIGH SCHOOL ARE CLOSED BY. THIS HOME WILL BE SOLD IN ‘AS IS’ CONDITIONS. CALL L/A FIRST BEFORE SHOWING. THANK YOU FOR SHOWING.”

“”UNBELIVERABLE” I don’t know if I believer it either. What is an INVITED fireplace? Did the fireplace seek permission to come visit? Is it staying? Nice to know things are CLOSED by. And thank you for the ALL CAPS as it makes the description it so easy to read… not.

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The lack of a second full bathroom is a problem, but there are no other factors working against this place other than the general market environment. This property is in a nice in-tract location very close to the school, the community park, and the large community pool.

This property has been on the market for 105 days at a price lower than its 2005 purchase price. The price will need to come down further to have a sale. If this seller gets their asking price, they will still face a loss of $63,328 assuming a 6% commission. The loss will probably be closer to $100,000.

The rollbacks have clearly gone past 2005, and we are now in 2004 territory. These rollbacks are getting easier to find.

Sale Price: $655,000

** SALE UPDATE **

This house sold on 6/1/2007 for $655,000. This was one of our first identified rollbacks, and the sale price proves it. If the seller paid a 6% commission, they lost a total of $59,300.

As I had speculated below, the other property at 3 Del Mar has reduced the asking price significantly. This property likely will become a rollback as well.

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Asking Price: $690,000

Purchase Price: $675,000

Purchase Date: 9/23/2004

Address: 8 Del Mar #4, Irvine, CA 92602

Beds: 3
Baths: 2.5
Sq. Ft.*: 1,601
Year Built: 2002
Stories: 2
Type: Condominium
Neighborhood: Northpark
$/Sq. Ft.*: $431
MLS: S479457
Status: Active on market
On Redfin: 43 days

2006, gone! 2005, gone! We are looking at a buyer from 2004 who will be selling at a loss in Northpark. If our seller gets their asking price (unlikely) assuming a 6% commission, they will lose $26,400.

From Redfin: “Move right in to this charming 3 bedroom 2 1/2 bath detached home. The gourmet kitchen has granite countertop and backsplash, cherrywood cabinets, built-in wine cooler and stainless steel appliances. There’s a fireplace and built-in media niche in the livingroom. The master bedroom has a walk-in closet and a jacuzzi bathtub. Relax and enjoy a cool drink in the comfortable low maintenance side yard. Convenient upstairs laundry. Stainless steel refrigerator and washer/dryer are included.”

This is a nice, updated property. It is still pretty expensive at $431 / SF, but it is a value relative to the pricing in Northpark. Compare it to this property:

Old Asking Price: $870,000

New Asking Price: $769,000

Purchase Price: $750,000

Purchase Date: 4/27/2005

Address: 3 Del Mar, Irvine, CA 92602

Beds: 3
Baths: 2.5
Sq. Ft.*: 1,813
Year Built: 2002
Stories: 2
$/Sq. Ft.*: $480
MLS: I703772
Status: Active on market
On Redfin: 55 days

This seller / flipper wants $180,000 more for a house that isn’t updated. Since this house is empty, and the comps are about to flatten him, I suspect this seller will find the motivation for some significant asking price reductions. Also, look out for it being offered as a rental — a sign of deep denial.

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