Everybody’s all gone

Everybody’s had enough

It’s gettin’ ugly out

I’m so tired so tired so tired so take me home

It’s getting late (getting late)

Come here and wait for me

Let’s get out of this place

It never changes, it just stays the same

So take me home

(Come on, let’s go)

I just wanna run away, I’ve had it here

I just gotta get out of here, I’ve had it here

I just wanna run away, I’m done with this…

Take Me Back To Your House — Basement Jaxx

Link to Music Video

The market is getting pretty ugly right now. Do you get the feeling some of these sellers have just had enough? Over 100 days on the market after rolling prices back to 2004 levels? If I were them, I would want to run away and just be done with it.

Asking Price: $399,000

Income Requirement: $99,750

Downpayment Needed: $79,800

Purchase Price: $399,000

Purchase Date: 7/15/2004

Address: 213 Huntington, Irvine, CA 92620

Beds: 2

Baths: 2

Sq. Ft.: 987

$/Sq. Ft.: $404

Lot Size: –

Type: Condominium

Style: Contemporary

Year Built: 1986

Stories: One Level

Area: Northwood

County: Orange

MLS#: S487213

Status: Active

On Redfin: 133 days

Unsold in 90+ days

From Redfin, “Nice floor plan 2 Bedroom 2 Bath, with new laminate floors, master bathroom upgraded. Well kept unit. Close to UC Irvine, Close to shopping malls, restaurants, church and easy access to Hi-way 5”

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You have to make almost $100K to own a small, twenty year old, two-bedroom apartment in Irvine. Does that feel right to you?

Another 2004 rollback at the low end of the market. At 133 days on the market, they are not done lowering their price. I think we have seen enough of these to conclude the low end of the market is now at 2004 pricing and still declining. The dreams of later buyers hoping to get out at breakeven are starting to look like sad fantasies which will never come true.

If this seller gets their asking price (which seems unlikely), and they pay a 6% commission, they stand to lose $23,940. Doesn’t sound like much, but this is a summer 2004 purchase. Those weren’t supposed to lose money…

An ode to all of us waiting our turn to own a house in Irvine…

How long before I get in?

Before it starts, before I begin?

How long before you decide?

Before I know what it feels like?

Where To, where do I go?

If you never try, then you’ll never know.

How long do I have to climb,

Up on the side of this mountain of mine?

Look up, I look up at night,

Planets are moving at the speed of light.

Climb up, up in the trees,

every chance that you get,

is a chance you seize.

How long am I gonna stand,

with my head stuck under the sand?

I’ll start before I can stop,

before I see things the right way up.

All that noise, and all that sound,

All those places I got found.

And birds go flying at the speed of sound,

to show you how it all began.

Birds came flying from the underground,

if you could see it then you’d understand?

Speed of Sound — Coldplay

Link to Music Video

Nearly every line of that song has meaning for those of us watching the deflation of the housing bubble from the sidelines. How long before you get in?

Well, if you are an entry level buyer, today’s property is a market entry point. These are basically glorified apartments, but they typically represent the lowest priced properties in the marketplace. At $450,000 it provides a great example of how crazy our prices are.

Asking Price: $450,000

Income Requirement: $112,500

Downpayment Needed: $90,000

Purchase Price: $452,000

Purchase Date: 7/16/2004

Address: 17 Elderglen #15, Irvine, CA 92604

Beds: 3

Baths: 1.5

Sq. Ft.: 1,220

$/Sq. Ft.: $369

Lot Size: –

Type: Condominium

Style: Townhouse

Year Built: 1978

Stories: Two Levels

View(s): Park or Green Belt

Area: Woodbridge

County: Orange

MLS#: S503013

Status: Active

On Redfin: 14 days

From Redfin, “Great opportunity in desirable Community of Woodbridge. This home features laminate floors throughout the main living area, living room fireplace, kitchen with newer kitchen cabinets and counters, eating area in kitchen and large laundry area which doubles as a pantry. Master bedroom has huge mirriored closet. Large enclosed patio with storage area, and direct access to your own carport. Newer water heater, newer heater and A/C unit.”

Direct access to your own carport? WTF? Is there another kind of access to a carport? Easy access to an insecure roof structure separated from your apartment condo where you can park your one car. Yea, that’s a plus.

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If you are making over $100K, is this your dream home?

This is a pretty deep Rollback in Woodbridge: a 2004 loser. I don’t know which is more insane, the current asking price, or the fact that someone paid more than that in 2004?

I would estimate you could rent this for $1,800 based on the third bedroom; nothing more because the lack of a second bath. With a gross rent multiplier of 160, this place is worth about $288,000. This would put it within reach of someone making $72,000 a year, which is below the median.

If this seller gets their $450,000 asking price and pays a 6% commission, they stand to lose $29,000. Doesn’t sound like a lot, but then again, this was a “sure thing” back in 2004. They should be figuring out how to spend their $100,000 in profit, not selling at a loss.

A little advice from the Eagles on dealing with the market crash:

You say you haven’t been the same since you had your little crash

But you might feel better if I gave you some cash

The more I think about it, old billy was right

Let’s kill all the lawyers, kill ’em tonight

You don’t want to work, you want to live like a king

But the big, bad world doesn’t owe you a thing

Get over it

Get over it

If you don’t want to play, then you might as well split

Get over it, get over it

Get Over It — The Eagles

Link to Music Video

Asking Price: $525,000

Income Requirement: $131,250

Downpayment Needed: $105,000

Purchase Price: $549,000

Purchase Date: 8/10/2005

Address: 804 Maplewood, Irvine, CA 92618

1st Loan $439,200

2nd Mtg. $54,900

Downpayment $54,900

Beds: 2

Baths: 2.5

Sq. Ft.: 1,200

$/Sq. Ft.: $438

Lot Size: –

Type: Condominium

Style: Mediterranean

Year Built: 1999

Stories: Two Levels

Area: Oak Creek

County: Orange

MLS#: S503807

Status: Active

On Redfin: 9 days

From Redfin, “HIGHLY UPGRADED Townhome in Gated Oak Creek featuring 2bd/2.5 baths, Inside Laundry and 2-Car Direct Access Garage w/ Custom Storage System! Luxurious upgrades include HARDWOOD FLOORING * SOLID GRANITE SURFACES THROUGHOUT * Recessed Lighting * Custom Media Blt-In * Upgraded Carpet * Designer Window Treatments & Home Security System! Sparkling Kitchen features Granite Counters w/ Tumbled Stone Backsplash. All Baths Beautifully Remodeled w/ Travertine & Granite! Just Steps to Resort-Style Amenities!”

ALL CAPS, asterisks instead of periods, exclamation points, w/: an A+ in realtorese.

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Another day, another losing property. Does anyone still dispute the crash anymore? Oh wait, some claim this is a minor correction. I guess that is as bullish as you can be these days.

Today’s seller stands to lose $55,500 assuming they get their asking price and they pay a 6% commission. Since their downpayment is only $54,900, they will need to write a $600 check at the closing table or make the bank eat it. Which do you think they will do?

You get calloused to the market after a while. When I see a mere $50,000 loss, it doesn’t have much of an emotional impact on me any more. Perhaps, I am “over it.” I have to imagine it is a big deal to the specuvestor who lost everything on the deal — lost money, lost sleep, lost sanity, etc. He will just have to Get Over It too.

You know I’m a dreamer

But my heart’s of gold

I had to run away and hide

‘Cause I couldn’t go home

Just when things went right

Suddenly it all went wrong

Just take this song and you’ll never feel

Left all alone

I’m on my way

I’m on my way

Home, sweet home

Tonight tonight

I’m on my way

I’m on my way

Home, sweet home

Home Sweet Home — Motley Crue

Link to Music Video

“ Just when things went right, Suddenly it all went wrong” The ode to the 2005-2007 homebuyer…

There are some neighborhoods in Irvine that are so charming, you really need to go see them. This is one of those. I took many pictures here for my community profile on Irvine’s Woodbridge. The houses are small, but very well kept, and there is not a garage door to be seen. Add a white picket fence, and you have the American Dream — except for the prices of course…

Asking Price: $688,888

Income Requirement: $172,222

Downpayment Needed: $137,777

Purchase Price: $699,000

Purchase Date: 5/31/2006

Address: 15 Sweet Rain, Irvine, CA 92614

1st Loan $559,200

2nd Mtg. $69,900

Downpayment $69,900

Beds: 3

Baths: 2.5

Sq. Ft.: 1,571

$/Sq. Ft.: $439

Lot Size: 3,780 sq. ft.

Type: Single Family Residence

Style: Other

Year Built: 1980

Stories: Two Levels

Area: Woodbridge

County: Orange

MLS#: P585358

Status: Active

On Redfin: 69 days

From Redfin, “Outstanding Location! Inside Loop, backs to greenbelt, full driveway. Away from freeway noise, near park, pool, schools and lakes, walk to all amenities. Remodeled kitchen with hardwood cabinets, granite counter tops and mewer appliances. Updated powder room and guest bath with top of the line fixtures! Laminate wood floors, dual pane vinyl windows, French doors, textured ceilings. Custom speakers through out the house, extra storage spaces, No zero lot line (opportunity to add windows!)”

I want those mewer appliances. I hear they purr like a kitten.

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These people bought at the peak, so they are being a bit optimistic to think they are only $11,000 underwater. If they manage to obtain their full asking price, they stand to lose $51,445. They have $69,900 in equity to lose, so there is a small amount of negotiating room before this becomes a short sale, assuming they haven’t HELOCed or used an Option ARM. Unfortunately, the price is too high as evidenced by the over 60 days on the market. They are probably going to become a short sale.

William Blake – Dante’s Inferno, Whirlwind of Lovers

Thus concludes yet another week at the Irvine Housing Blog. Join us next week as we continue to chronicle Irvine’s journey to ‘the seventh circle of real estate hell.’