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Strategic default is the banker's stigma of convenience

Bankers foster the idea that strategic default on a primary residence is immoral. Bankers want borrowers to continue to repay loans even when it is not in the borrower's best financial interest to do so. I and many others have argued borrowers have a greater moral duty to do what's in the best financial interest of their family. Obviously, bankers disagree.

Home Address … 1229 ABELIA Irvine, CA 92606

Asking Price ……. $319,900

In reality, this isn't a moral issue at all. It's all about money. Bankers want to make money, and making moral arguments is a stigma of convenience. If they were on the other side of the transaction, they would make the opposite point. I know this because they were on the opposite side recently, and they did make the opposite choice. The mortgage banker's association defaulted on the loan on their own headquarters! So much for the greater moral duty to keep their word and their written agreements.

Living By Default

by December 19, 2011

We normally say that a company “went bankrupt,” implying that it had no choice. But when, recently, American Airlines filed for bankruptcy, it did so deliberately. The airline had four billion dollars in the bank and could have kept paying its bills. But it has been losing money for a while, and its board decided that it was foolish to keep throwing good money after bad. Declaring bankruptcy will trim American’s debt load and allow it to break its union contracts, so that it can slim down and cut costs.

American wasn’t stigmatized for the move. Instead, analysts hailed it as “very smart.” It is now generally accepted that when it’s economically irrational for a company to keep paying its debts it will try to renegotiate them or, failing that, default. For creditors, that’s just the price of business. But when it comes to another set of borrowers the norms are very different. The bursting of the housing bubble has left millions of homeowners across the country owing more than their homes are worth. In some areas, well over half of mortgages are underwater, many so deeply that people owe forty or fifty per cent more than the value of their homes. In other words, a good percentage of Americans are in much the same position as American Airlines: they can still pay their debts, but doing so is like setting a pile of money on fire every month.

It is exactly the same as lighting money on fire. It's gone. It isn't coming back. For underwater borrowers who are paying more each month than a comparable rental, they are losing the difference each month from the family's economic vitality. And for what?

These people have no hope of ever making a return on their investment in their homes. So for many of them the rational solution would be a “strategic default”—walking away from the mortgage and letting the bank take the house. Yet the vast majority of underwater borrowers keep faithfully paying their mortgages; studies suggest that perhaps only a quarter of all foreclosures are strategic. Given how much housing prices have fallen, the question is why more people aren’t just walking away.

Part of the answer is practical. Defaulting (even in so-called non-recourse states) is still a lot of trouble, and to most people it’s scary.

Most borrowers believe this, but the truth is Strategic default consequences are minor and likely to decrease.

In addition, homeowners are slow to recognize how much the value of their homes has dropped, and have inflated expectations of how much it will rise in the future.

Hope springs eternal. I suspect this is most people, particularly here in California. Houses have fallen in value much more than most homeowners realize or are willing to admit, and of the few who realize it, many of them also believe prices will come back quickly once the market bottoms. The market bottom is proving elusive, and appreciation will be much more tepid than loan owners expect once the bottom is in place.

The biggest hurdle, though, is social: while companies get called “very smart” for restructuring their contracts, there’s a real stigma attached to defaulting on your mortgage. According to one study, eighty-one per cent of Americans think it’s immoral not to pay your mortgage when you can, and the idea of default is shaped by what Brent White, a law professor at the University of Arizona, calls a discourse of “shame, guilt, and fear.” When the housing bubble burst, the banking industry was terrified by the possibility that homeowners might walk away en masse, since that would have stuck lenders with large losses and a huge number of marked-down homes. So strategic default was portrayed as the act of dishonorable deadbeats. David Walker, of the Peterson Foundation, waxed nostalgic about debtors’ prisons, and John Courson, the head of the Mortgage Bankers Association, argued that defaulters were sending the wrong message “to their family and their kids and their friends.”

Paying your debts is, as a rule, a good thing. But the double standard here is obvious and offensive. Homeowners are getting lambasted for doing what companies do on a regular basis. Walking away from real-estate obligations in particular is common in the corporate world, and real-estate developers are notorious for abandoning properties that no longer make economic sense. Sometimes the hypocrisy is staggering: last winter, the Mortgage Bankers Association—the very body whose president attacked defaulters for betraying their families and their communities—got its creditors to let it do a short sale of its headquarters, dumping it for thirty-four million dollars less than the value of the building’s mortgage.

This is more than just a public relations problem for bankers. This strikes to the heart of the lie they are perpetrating on the American people. When bankers say it is immoral to default, they don't really believe it. Their actions speak much louder than their words ever will.

When it comes to debt, then, the corporate attitude is do as I say, not as I do. And, while homeowners are cautioned to think of more than the bottom line, banks, naturally, have done business in coldly rational terms. They could have helped keep people in their homes by writing down mortgages (the equivalent of the restructuring that American Airlines’ debt holders will now be confronting). And there are plenty of useful ideas out there for how banks could do this without taxpayer subsidies and without rewarding the irresponsible. For instance, Eric Posner and Luigi Zingales, of the University of Chicago, suggest that, in exchange for writing down mortgages in hard-hit areas, lenders would take an ownership stake in a house, getting a percentage of the capital gain when it was eventually sold. Lenders, though, have avoided such schemes and haven’t done mortgage modifications on any meaningful scale. It’s their right to act in their own interest, but it makes it awfully hard to take seriously complaints about homeowners’ lack of social responsibility.

Of course, many borrowers made bad decisions and acted irresponsibly. But so did lenders—by handing out too much money and not requiring sensible down payments. So far, banks have been partially insulated from the consequences of those bad decisions, because Americans have been so obliging about paying off overinflated mortgages. Strategic defaults would help distribute the pain more evenly and, if they became more common, would force lenders to be more responsible in the future. It’s also possible that a wave of strategic defaults—a De-Occupy Your House movement—would get banks to take mortgage modification more seriously, which would be all for the better. The truth is that banks have been relying on homeowners to do the right thing. It might be time for homeowners to do the smart thing instead.

Underwater borrowers who are paying more each month than a comparable rental have a choice to make. Either accept the arguments of bankers, keep paying the mortgage, and flush the money down the toilet; or they can do what's best for their family and tell the bankers to shove that mortgage up their a$$.

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This property is available for sale via the MLS.

Please contact Shevy Akason, #01836707

949.769.1599

sales@idealhomebrokers.com

Home Address … 1229 ABELIA Irvine, CA 92606

Asking Price ……. $319,900

Beds: 1

Baths: 2

Sq. Ft.: 1310

$244/SF

Property Type: Residential, Condominium

Style: 3+ Levels, Contemporary

Year Built: 2006

Community: Columbus Grove

County: Orange

MLS#: P806493

Source: CRMLS

Status: Active

On Redfin: 5 days

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A charming 1 Bedroom, 1.5 Bathroom Townhome in Irvine. On the second floor of this home you will find the 1.5 bath, living room, kitchen and den/office. On the third floor you will find the large master bedroom with wood like flooring, spacious master bathroom and walk in closet. This home features a balcony on the second floor and an attached 1 car garage.

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Proprietary commentary and analysis

Asking Price ……. $319,900

Purchase Price … $222,500

Purchase Date …. 11/10/1997

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $78,206

Percent Change ………. 35.1%

Annual Appreciation … 2.6%

Cost of Home Ownership

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$319,900 ………. Asking Price

$11,197 ………. 3.5% Down FHA Financing

4.02% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$308,704 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$90,242 ………. Income Requirement

$1,477 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$277 ………. Property Tax (@1.04%)

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$67 ………. Homeowners Insurance (@ 0.25%)

$355 ………. Private Mortgage Insurance

$155 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$2,331 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$229 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$443 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment (Amortization)

$16 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$60 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$1,734 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

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$3,199 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$3,199 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$3,087 ………. Interest Points

$11,197 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$20,682 ………. Total Cash Costs

$26,500 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$47,182 ………. Total Savings Needed

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Increasing borrowing costs will lower house prices

Borrowing costs are likely to increase in 2012 for a variety of loans. The lower conforming limit will push many borrowers to either the FHA or the jumbo market where borrowing costs are higher. The FHA may also raise its borrowing costs again to cover the inevitable losses from the ongoing decline in home prices. Further, the new rules on conforming mortgages will push up costs on loans which do not conform.

Home Address … 44 BLUE HERON Irvine, CA 92603

Asking Price ……. $13,900,000

The result of higher borrowing costs will be greater pressure on home prices. If borrowing costs go up, affordability declines, and it's only affordability which will put a floor beneath home prices.

New rules would raise mortgage costs

By JEFF COLLINS / THE ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER — December 16, 2011

Cameron Findlay is the chief economist at LendingTree.com, working out of the Charlotte firm’s Irvine office. responsible for risk management, hedge strategy and analytics. He is the firm’s principal representative in Washington, D.C., involved in mortgage industry reform. We asked him for his take on the mortgage market these days …

Us: What’s going on with the current mortgage market?

Cameron: There is a battle ensuing between Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac vs. the Federal Housing Administration in terms of market share.

Just take loan limits as an example. For Fannie and Freddie loans, the local loan limit is set at $625,500. For FHA loans, those limits are actually $729,750.

The translation for high-cost regions like Orange County, the government is committed to reducing the number of Fannie and Freddie loans, and the volume we expect will be diverted to FHA as consumers look to secure higher loan limit loans. In short, there is confusion for both lenders and borrowers which inhibits the loan origination process and increases cost.

The reduction in Fannie and Freddie loan limits from $729,750 to $625,500 on Oct. 1 was particularly significant because 28 percent of the homes impacted nationally are located right here in California.

I don't believe this is competition or confusion. The government wants to pull back from its subsidies to stop from losing even more money, by leaving the option open to use FHA financing, they can provide some support for the more expensive homes, but at a higher borrowing cost. This should encourage private lending in the jumbo loan market to enter this space.

FHA loans with their insurance premium of 1.15% is more expensive than a competing jumbo loan. Of course, the jumbo loan will require 20% down and the FHA loan only requires 3.5% down, so many will chose FHA loans anyway because they won't have another choice.

Whatever choice the borrower makes, it will carry a higher cost which will reduce the size of the available mortgage. Smaller mortgages make for lower prices.

Us: What’s the outlook for mortgages in 2012?

Cameron: Qualification will continue to play a central role in the first half of the year when regulators are expected to release the definition of a “Qualified Residential Mortgage.”

The cost of borrowing may rise as much as 1.25 percent for those who do not qualify for a QRM. Clearly this would be detrimental to existing home prices and reduce the market’s ability to clear existing inventory.

That is only half true. It is detrimental to existing home prices, but it doesn't reduce the market's ability to clear the inventory. Lower prices will do that.

Being an election year, there may not be much new policy agreed to. We expect policies already in place to be central to election results. This may drive government intervention to further stimulate improvement or at least stability in housing.

I agree that legislation in an election year is not likely, particularly since the two parties can't agree on much. But given the perceived need in Washington to support home prices, something may emerge from Washington which further distorts the market.

Us: UCLA forecast that these historically low rates will last two more years? Do you agree? How long do you think they’ll last?

Cameron: Mortgage rates have bottomed out despite additional monetary easing from the Federal Reserve. Any additional efforts by the Fed to stimulate mortgage rates lower will have only a marginal improvement on increasing the number of borrowers who are eligible for a loan or refinance.

We expect low rates to prevail for less than 24 months, by which time it is expected regulatory influence will begin to push rates higher. The increased transparency any private label investment in mortgages would require implicates a risk premium that will be passed onto borrowers.

That's a reasonable assessment. Over the next 18 to 24 months, interest rates will likely remain low. Just when it looks like prices have found a bottom, higher interest rates will reduce affordability and stop any meaningful appreciation.

People say that mortgages were too easy to get in the boom, and now they’re too hard. Has the pendulum swung too far?

The pendulum for qualification was previously built on the concept of creative and unstable loan. Existing loan types today are primarily Fannie, Freddie or FHA-qualified loan types, meaning lenders are very cautious about qualifying a borrower.

For sustainable, long-term growth, you need a solid foundation. Today, the market, in collaboration with government oversight, is still clearing the rubble and defining that foundation.

In other words, no, the standards are not too tight.

Standards are finally reasonable again. Only if lenders get stupid, take on excessive risk, or innovate again will we see stupid loan standards and possibly another bubble.

The concern we have expressed is the constant market shock of changing rules will result in adverse market condition premiums that will be passed onto borrowers in the form of higher rates.

Us: How long will this tight-money climate last?

Cameron: The “tight-money climate” will remain in place until private label investment deems mortgages are a risk-worthy investment, which cannot happen as long as the government is buying all of the supply at a market premium to synthetically suppress mortgage rates.

Exactly. The entire mortgage market today is government backed. Private lenders are unwilling to loan at the interest rates backed by government loan guarantees, so we have a completely artificial government-backed interest rate sustaining current pricing.

The government is fully aware that consumption (which is about 70 percent of GDP) is driven by confidence, and without support for housing initiatives, this will risk reducing growth targets not only for mortgages but the broader economy.

Clearly, underlying this issue is the labor market. Jobs creation will be central to any improvement. Focus will need to be on both the cyclical unemployment rate and the structural unemployment concerns that takes into account the skills loss that results in lower-paying jobs and reduced income.

Job creation and household formation are essential to the recovery of the housing market. We need qualified borrowers taking on plain-vanilla debt to absorb the homes being vacated by toxic mortgage holders.

Us: Who’s getting these historically low interest rates, the rich, or cash-strapped homeowners who need them the most?

Cameron: Qualification has mainly been restricted by loan to value or FICO score constraints vs. a focus on debt to income, or higher-income households. Access to credit is being restricted by the loss of equity and home devaluation over the past five years.

The recent Home Affordable Refinance Program 2.0 program was designed specifically to focus on high loan-to-value borrowers. Although it is expected to help, it will still only assist less than 10 percent of the market.

He didn't answer the question about who benefits, so I will. The primary beneficiaries of the low interest rates are prudent borrowers who were able to refinance, and new buyers purchasing in areas like Las Vegas where prices are well below rental parity.

The people who have not benefited from the low rates are the buyers who paid much more than rental parity to take advantage of the low rates. Those knife catchers have watched the values continue to decline despite the bargain rate they got.

The other group that has not benefited are the deeply underwater who did not strategically default because they got a loan modification or took advantage of the new GSE program allowing deeply underwater borrowers to refinance. This group believes they've been helped, but they have merely extended their pain.

The bottom line is that increased borrowing cost is going to continue to put pressure on home prices. With the additional inventory coming next year from B of A and other lenders, I expect prices to continue to decline.

Did Shady Canyon appreciate 35% since 2008?

The owner of today’s featured property believes his property has appreciated 35% since early 2008 when he bought. The rest of the market has declined about 20% since then. Is it reasonable to think this house went the other way?

Some say the rich get richer, but only if a greater fool comes along to pay a lot more for an already overpriced house.

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This property is available for sale via the MLS.

Please contact Shevy Akason, #01836707

949.769.1599

sales@idealhomebrokers.com

Home Address … 44 BLUE HERON Irvine, CA 92603

Asking Price ……. $13,900,000

Beds: 5

Baths: 8

Sq. Ft.: 11441

$1215/SF

Property Type: Residential, Single Family

Style: 3+ Levels, Farm House, Mediterranean

View: Canyon, City Lights, City, Golf Course, Mountain, Panoramic

Year Built: 2006

Community: Turtle Rock

County: Orange

MLS#: U11003550

Source: CRMLS

On Redfin: 127 days

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This Shady Canyon custom home resides upon one of the community s most desirable elevated lots and captures breathtaking panoramas of the canyon, golf course, and mountains in the distance. Its preferred siting affords wonderful privacy throughout the residence and its grounds. Extraordinary design and materials have been brought together, creating the substance and distinction that are the hallmark of this home. Throughout the spacious interiors, the carefully selected finishes contribute to a feeling of quality, warmth and comfort. Impressive, yet eminently livable, no other home offers such a unique combination of setting, space, views and privacy. The house is complemented by nearly an acre of amazing gardens, terraces, multiple outdoor living areas, and an outdoor kitchen facilities ideal for entertaining or enjoying the exceptional views and tranquil setting.

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Proprietary commentary and analysis

Asking Price ……. $13,900,000

Purchase Price … $10,250,000

Purchase Date …. 4/8/2008

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $2,816,000

Percent Change ………. 27.5%

Annual Appreciation … 8.2%

Cost of Home Ownership

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$13,900,000 ………. Asking Price

$2,780,000 ………. 20% Down Conventional

4.02% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$11,120,000 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$2,685,524 ………. Income Requirement

$53,217 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$12047 ………. Property Tax (@1.04%)

$667 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$2896 ………. Homeowners Insurance (@ 0.25%)

$0 ………. Private Mortgage Insurance

$550 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$69,376 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$4311 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$15965 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment (Amortization)

$3892 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$1758 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$54,750 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

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$139,000 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$139,000 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$111,200 ………. Interest Points

$2,780,000 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$3,169,200 ………. Total Cash Costs

$839,200 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$4,008,400 ………. Total Savings Needed

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OC Republican John Campbell successfully lobbies for more government handouts

The loan limit on FHA loans is now $729,750. The venerable FHA which was founded to provide loans for low to middle income Americans is now being used to subsidize the mortgages and the house prices of high wage earners in places like Irvine.

Home Address … 76 VINTAGE Irvine, CA 92620

Asking Price ……. $499,000

The government should get out of the housing market. Even the government knows this, but when removing its support causes house prices to weaken, so does the resolve of those in government to get out of the housing market.

Obama signs extension for higher FHA loan limits

by JON PRIOR — Friday, November 18th, 2011, 10:21 am

President Obama signed into law a government spending bill Friday morning effectively reinstalling higher conforming loan limits for the Federal Housing Administration through the end of 2013. The House passed the minibus spending bill 298-121 Thursday afternoon, and the Senate approved it 70-30 Thursday night. Effective Friday, FHA can insure loans up to $729,750 from $625,500 in the most expensive neighborhoods. In 2008, Congress elevated the limits for the FHA, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but expired Oct. 1. The Senate approved an amendment to the bill earlier in the month that would have reinstalled the limits for Fannie and Freddie as well. But a joint appropriations committee cut the government-sponsored enterprises out, leaving the FHA in.

It can be argued this is an interim step toward getting the government out. The costs on FHA loans are higher, so it will provide some additional demand, but only by high wage earners who can still support a $729,750 loan after paying the onerous FHA loan premium. Private money will still be needed to fill the gap, but as I demonstrated in Lower conforming limit causes 84% decline in loan volume, the gap is currently a chasm.

By signing the bill, the Obama administration back-tracked somewhat from a white paper put out in February. The paper put forth three options for the housing finance system, precluded by the expiration of the higher conforming loan limits in order to begin ushering private capital back to the market. FHA Acting Commissioner Carole Galante warned senators Thursday that the government should be looking to shrink the FHA market share. “We maintain that it is appropriate to take a step back on the loan limits,” Galante said.

It's appropriate to keep house prices inflated with government supports? It's appropriate to have the government assume the losses that should accrue to the banks?

Rep. John Campbell, R-Calif., made the case on the House floor Thursday to reinstall the limits for Fannie and Freddie as well, citing concerns that the housing market is not healthy enough to be taken off the government lifeline. “Even now, private lenders remain incredibly risk-averse, hesitating to provide long-term, fixed-rate mortgages to the vast majority of the market,” Campbell said. “Until Congress decides how to move forward with broad reform to fix our broken housing finance system, we should not dismantle the few remaining support systems that are preventing the housing industry from collapsing further.”

I first reported congress passed this legislation last month. In that post, I made the following observation: “California Republicans should hide their faces in shame. This is appalling. These Republicans call for reducing the footprint of government and simultaneously vote to keep the house prices inflated in their districts with more government largess.” John Campbell is not a conservative, or has the term conservative been redefined to include maximizing government handouts for high wage earners and rich people? John Campbell is a disgrace to conservatives and to the Republican party.

Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., shook his head Thursday, clearly frustrated at the decision his colleagues made. “The white paper and a bill are two very different things,” Corker said. “I am absolutely so discouraged at Congress in lacking the courage to deal with this issue that we all know needs to be dealt with.Write to Jon Prior. Follow him on Twitter @JonAPrior.

Bob Corker is my new hero. Thank you for telling it like it is.

Should you or shouldn't you?

On principle, I wouldn't want to use an FHA loan above $417,000. In reality, I might.

Even now, I take advantage of government-backed loans to buy properties being rented to government subsidized renters. My moral aversion to government intervention aside, if that is the only game in town, I will play it if necessary. And it is necessary to buy a property these days.

In late 2013, I will probably buy a house, hopefully in Irvine. Since I am spending all my money on cashflow properties, I probably won't have 20% to put down on a property. I may use an FHA loan.

I recognize this is one more government prop which when removed will likely result in diminished demand and lower prices, but if I don't have 20% to put down, it may be the only option I have. I know I am not alone in this regard.

At low interest rates, many people who live and rent in Irvine could afford a mortgage greater than $417,000 or even $625,000. Many of those people will use FHA loans over the next two years, and their buying will provide some artificial support to prices.

Sometimes I wonder if the government props will ever be removed. If I wait until they all are, I may not buy a house in my lifetime. Many of these props may never go away. It's not the market I want to operate in, but it is the only housing market we have. If you want to own, you have to deal with it.

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This property is available for sale via the MLS.

Please contact Shevy Akason, #01836707

949.769.1599

sales@idealhomebrokers.com

Home Address … 76 VINTAGE Irvine, CA 92620

Asking Price ……. $499,000

Beds: 3

Baths: 4

Sq. Ft.: 2100

$238/SF

Property Type: Residential, Condominium

Style: Two Level, Spanish

View: City Lights, Park/Green Belt, Trees/Woods

Year Built: 2005

Community: Woodbury

County: Orange

MLS#: P802615

Source: CRMLS

On Redfin: 41 days

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ELEGANT 2 STORY TOWNHOME IN WOODBURY COMMUNITY. 2 MASTER BEDROOMS WITH RETREAT & SPACIOUS BATHROOMS, OVERSIZE BATH TUB & SEPARATE SHOWER. WOOD FLOORING THROUGH-OUT, GRANITE COUNTER TOPS, CHARMING FORMAL LIVING ROOM WITH COZY FIREPLACE. CONVENIENT LOCATED WITH LOT OF COMMUNITY AMENITIES, NEAR BY MARKETPLACE, AIRPORT & UCI.

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Proprietary commentary and analysis

Asking Price ……. $499,000

Purchase Price … $800,000

Purchase Date …. 5/12/2006

Net Gain (Loss) ………. ($330,940)

Percent Change ………. -41.4%

Annual Appreciation … -8.1%

Cost of Home Ownership

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$499,000 ………. Asking Price

$17,465 ………. 3.5% Down FHA Financing

4.02% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$481,535 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$154,155 ………. Income Requirement

$2,304 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$432 ………. Property Tax (@1.04%)

$317 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$104 ………. Homeowners Insurance (@ 0.25%)

$554 ………. Private Mortgage Insurance

$271 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$3,982 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$511 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$691 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment (Amortization)

$24 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$82 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$2,886 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

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$4,990 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$4,990 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$4,815 ………. Interest Points

$17,465 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$32,260 ………. Total Cash Costs

$44,200 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$76,460 ………. Total Savings Needed

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Lower conforming limit causes 84% decline in loan volume

In Los Angeles and Orange Counties, the conforming loan limit dropped from $729,750 to $625,000 on October 1, 2011. Many market bulls claimed this would have no effect on sales. In November sales of houses with loans between $625,000 and $729,750 declined 84% as compared to last November. So much for having no impact.

Home Address … 25 WILD Trl Irvine, CA 92618

Asking Price ……. $622,990

In other news, the falling prices are beginning to motivate some buyers as evidenced by the small increase in sales volume. Falling prices and increasing sales are prerequisite to forming a durable market bottom.

SoCal home sales rise on declining prices

by KERRY CURRY — Wednesday, December 14th, 2011, 12:04 pm

The number of homes sold in Southern California rose modestly last month from both October and a year earlier as investors and first-time buyers targeted homes priced below $400,000.

Prices, however, slipped in most areas, except in San Bernardino, Calif., where the median price rose 2.3% and nearby Riverside, where prices remained stable, according to San Diego real estate information firm DataQuick.

How do prices slip? It makes it all sound very minor, doesn't it. Prices have been dropping ever since the tax credit expired at rates similar to the worst of the crash in 2008.

A total of 16,884 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties in November, up 0.3% from October and up 4.2% from November 2010.

More often than not, sales have dropped between October and November and have fallen, on average, 8.4% between those two months since 1988, when DataQuick's statistics begin. Still, last month’s sales were 22.7% lower than the November average of 21,832 transactions since the record-keeping began.

A small uptick is a start, but obviously, the market has a long way to go. The lack of a move-up market is paralyzing sales and forcing above-median home sellers to lower their prices to make a deal. Expect this trend to continue for at least a few more years.

November existing-home/condo sales rose 5.8% from a year earlier, while new home sales fell 15.2% to the lowest level on record for a November.

So much for a recovery in homebuilding.

“Tis still the season to go bargain hunting — or at least that’s what the November home sales data suggest. The portion of homes sold to investors continued to hover near an all-time high,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president.

Distressed property sales accounted for 51.3% of the Southland resale market last month, down from 52.3% in October and down from 53.4% a year earlier.

Short sales, where the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property, made up just shy of 20% of Southland resales in November.

With distressed sales making up 50% of the market, don't expect appreciation any time soon.

Lower conforming loan limits that took effect Oct. 1 continued to impact the housing market. Lawmakers recently restored the higher limits, which vary by county, for FHA loans but not for mortgages guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

In Los Angeles and Orange counties, where the conforming loan limit was lowered from $729,750 to $625,500, the number of homes sold with purchase loans in that range totaled 58 in November, down 44.2% from October and down 84.1% from a year earlier.

The chart below (click to expand) shows homes sales and median prices changes in the Southern California markets tracked by DataQuick.

Write toKerry Curry.

Follow her on Twitter @communicatorKLC.

Back in August when the lowering of the conforming limit was all but certain, Jaysen Gillespie a the Global Decision Analytics blog took a look at its impact: New lower conforming loan limit impact on Irvine, CA.

Impact of lower conforming loan limits in Irvine, CA

The above chart shows the distribution of home prices for all sales under $2M in Irvine, CA from 1/1/2010 through 7/31/2011. Irvine, CA is an expensive sub-market of an expensive region (Southern California). As a result, it is likely to feel any impact from lower conforming home limits more than most other places.

With that in mind, we’ve identified two potential price ranges that could be most impacted by the new limits. The green band represents homes that have selling prices where a 3.5% down payment represents a loan between the old limit ($729,000) and the new limit ($625,000). These properties represent 13.0% of all home sales in Irvine, CA. For the taxpayer’s sake, let’s hope that not many of the buyers in this price range are using only a 3.5% down payment. Those buyers are likely to be underwater soon as we predict continued downward drift in higher end home values in Southern California. These buyers represent one end of the spectrum.

On another point (but not the end, which would be “all cash” buyers) of the spectrum, we have buyers who put down 20%. At current Irvine, CA valuations, this is a substantial down-payment of around $170,000. For this level of royalty, we’ve used a purple band in the chart above. Using a 20% downpayment, 8.4% of sales in Irvine, CA would be impacted by the gap between the old and new conforming loan limits.

These are estimates — buyers in the green and purple bands have a few options. In order of long-term common sense for the buyer they are:

1. Pay less. Leverage seller fear that the loan limits really will reduce demand and correspondingly demand a lower price.

2. (tie) Put more down. Buy down the loan amount so that it becomes conforming.

2. (tie) Delay the purchase. The price-lowering impact from this change will be slight, but will occur over time. With an ongoing slow economy and prices above rental parity, there are no upward drivers for Irvine, CA home values.

3. Use “creative” financing. Pay the asking price but increase your monthly carrying cost for the term of the debt obligation.

As Jaysen noted, 20% of the Irvine market is impacted by the lowered limits, and that band just experienced an 84% decline in loan origination. No wonder prices are falling in the $700,000 to $900,000 price range.

New construction for $257/SF

New home sales in November fell to the lowest level recorded by DataQuick since it began keeping records in 1988. To ignite sales, KB Homes is lowering its price. Will it work?

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This property is available for sale via the MLS.

Please contact Shevy Akason, #01836707

949.769.1599

sales@idealhomebrokers.com

Home Address … 25 WILD Trl Irvine, CA 92618

Asking Price ……. $622,990

Beds: 4

Baths: 3

Sq. Ft.: 2423

$257/SF

Property Type: Residential, Condominium

Style: Two Level

Year Built: 2011

Community: Portola Springs

County: Orange

MLS#: I11091805

Source: CRMLS

Status: Active

On Redfin: 156 days

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This is a brand new never been lived in home that is located in a beautiful master planned community. This beautiful 4 bedroom, 3 bathroom has many upgrades which include granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. This home is energy star qualified and comes with a 10 year limited warranty! This is a must see.

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Proprietary commentary and analysis

Asking Price ……. $622,990

Cost of Home Ownership

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$622,990 ………. Asking Price

$124,598 ………. 20% Down Conventional

4.02% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$498,392 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$149,582 ………. Income Requirement

$2,385 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$540 ………. Property Tax (@1.04%)

$415 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$130 ………. Homeowners Insurance (@ 0.25%)

$0 ………. Private Mortgage Insurance

$394 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================

$3,864 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$552 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$716 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment (Amortization)

$174 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$98 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$2,869 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

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$6,230 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$6,230 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$4,984 ………. Interest Points

$124,598 ………. Down Payment

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$142,042 ………. Total Cash Costs

$43,900 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

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$185,942 ………. Total Savings Needed

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realtors admit they blew it, revised data coming 12-21

The NAr finally came clean and admitted they misreported housing sales data for the last 5 years.

Home Address … 3492 PECAN St Irvine, CA 92606

Asking Price ……. $599,000

The National Association of realtors has a credibility problem. Everyone already distrusts them because the sales techniques they advocate rely on falsehood and manipulation to cajole buyers into closing deals. But their problems go deeper than that. The association provides market data which purportedly is objective, but it certainly appears as if they manipulate this data to make the market look stronger than it is. Is this an “honest” mistake? Back in February I noted that the National Association of realtors caught lying about home sales. I contended that “The NAr wanted to dupe buyers into thinking the market was stable to induce transactions that never would have gone through if buyers had known the truth.” Perhaps they were nefarious and just incompetent. Neither alternative speaks highly of them.

Published: Tuesday, 13 Dec 2011 | 5:21 PM ET

Data on sales of previously owned U.S. homes from 2007 through October this year will be revised down next week because of double counting, indicating a much weaker housing market than previously thought. The National Association of Realtors said a benchmarking exercise had revealed that some properties were listed more than once, and in some instances, new home sales were also captured.”All the sales and inventory data that have been reported since January 2007 are being downwardly revised. Sales were weaker than people thought,” NAR spokesman Walter Malony told Reuters.

Are they also retracting all their bullish — and completely erroneous — statements over the last few years based on their incorrect data? Are they offering refunds to the buyers who believed their false data and relied on it to make a buying decision? What responsibility do they bear for the decisions they induced others to make?

“We're capturing some new home data that should have been filtered out and we also discovered that some properties were being listed in more than one list.” The benchmark revisions will be published next Wednesday and will not affect house prices.Early this year, the Realtors group was accused of overcounting existing homes sales, with California-based real estate analysis firm CoreLogic claiming sales could have been overstated by as much as 20 percent. At the time, the NAR said it was consulting with a range of experts to determine whether there was a drift in its monthly existing home sales data and that any drift would be “relatively minor.”

Relatively minor? They blew their counts by 10% to 20%, and they consider that relatively minor? They could have pulled numbers out of the air and done a better job.

The depressed housing market is one of the key obstacles to strong economic growth and an oversupply of unsold homes on the market continues to stifle the sector. Malony said the Realtors group had developed a new model that would allow frequent benchmarking instead of waiting 10 years for the population Census data to revise their figures.

I don't care if they benchmark their data daily, they simply can't be trusted to do it right. The temptation to fudge the numbers to pump the market is just too great. Calculated Risk did a recent post on this issue, Lawler on NAR Revisions for 2007 through 2011.

From economist Tom Lawler: NAR to Release Existing Home Sales Revisions this Month The National Association of Realtors yesterday sent out a media advisory [announcing] that it would release its benchmark revisions to its existing home sales estimates on December 21st. Here is what the NAR sent out:

Although there are downward revisions for total sales in recent years, there is little change to previously reported monthly comparisons or characterizations based on percentage change. There is a comparable downward revision to unsold inventory, so there is no change to relative month’s supply. Also, there is no change to median home prices. An up-drift in sales projections developed over time between the fixed model for calculating sales rates and the actual marketplace, including growth in multiple listing service coverage areas, geographic population shifts, a decline in for-sale-by-owner transactions, some new-home sales trickling into MLS data and some individual sales being recorded in more than one MLS. Divergence of the data with other housing data metrics began in 2007, so revisions for 2007 through the present will be released. Normal annual revisions will be released with January existing-home sales on February 22, 2012. Those revisions are expected to be minor and will fine-tune the data back though 2007.

While the NAR did not hint at the magnitude of the downward revisions, the “consensus” is that 2010 existing home sales will be revised downward by about 13% or so (yup, there’s a “consensus” for everything!). … Many analysts were hoping that the NAR’s new methodology would be based on publicly recorded transactions, and apparently the NAR’s staff actually did explore this avenue. Rumor has it, however, that the new “benchmark” revisions will NOT be based on publicly recorded transactions – in part, apparently, because data coverage in many states is not comprehensive; data quality in many states/counties is poor; AND there are disparities among various private vendor estimates of sales based on publicly-recorded transactions. … Any approach, however, will result in a material reduction in estimated sales over the last few years – though the result will still be estimates and not actuals. CR Note: This was from economist Tom Lawler.

I don't buy their argument that the data cannot be based on public information. They could use the data available and extrapolate from that. If their baseline is better, their estimates will improve. I don't see how they could possible do worse; after all, they are off by more than 10% with their current methodology.

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This property is available for sale via the MLS.

Please contact Shevy Akason, #01836707

949.769.1599

sales@idealhomebrokers.com

Home Address … 3492 PECAN St Irvine, CA 92606

Asking Price ……. $599,000

Beds: 3

Baths: 2

Sq. Ft.: 2639

$227/SF

Property Type: Residential, Single Family

Style: Two Level, Contemporary

Year Built: 1974

Community: Walnut

County: Orange

MLS#: P805415

Source: CRMLS

Status: Active

On Redfin: 7 days

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2 story home features 3 bds and 3 bths. 2 car garage. Empty swimming pool may not functional. Need LOTS OF repairs inside and out.

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Proprietary commentary and analysis

Asking Price ……. $599,000

Purchase Price … $199,000

Purchase Date …. 9/22/1995

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $364,060

Percent Change ………. 182.9%

Annual Appreciation … 6.7%

Cost of Home Ownership

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$599,000 ………. Asking Price

$119,800 ………. 20% Down Conventional

4.02% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$479,200 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$115,480 ………. Income Requirement

$2,293 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$519 ………. Property Tax (@1.04%)

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$125 ………. Homeowners Insurance (@ 0.25%)

$0 ………. Private Mortgage Insurance

$46 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$2,983 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$372 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$688 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment (Amortization)

$168 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$95 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$2,186 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

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$5,990 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$5,990 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$4,792 ………. Interest Points

$119,800 ………. Down Payment

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$136,572 ………. Total Cash Costs

$33,500 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

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$170,072 ………. Total Savings Needed

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