Move-up housing is not an equity appreciation play as most people think. True move-up housing is cashflow savings technique that will be in vogue again in a few years.
Today we have another condo in Orangtee rolling back to 2003 pricing.
Asking Price: $299,000
Address: 294 Lemon Grove, Irvine, CA 92618
{book1}
Did you see the weekend post, HELOC Abuse San Clemente Style? Kelli Hart has a follow up on South Coast Homes.
Move Along – The All-American Rejects
Speak to me, when all you got to keep is strong
Move along, move along like I know you do
And even when your hope is gone
Move along, move along just to make it through
Move along
Move along
Most people in California do not understand how move-up home ownership really works. Most believe you buy a relatively inexpensive property and take the appreciation from a few years of ownership and move up to a more expensive property. The craziness of this idea is obvious; the property you want to move up to has also appreciated, and it is just as far out-of-reach as it was when you bought the less expensive home.
The reason the fallacy of move-ups persists is because there are often periods where prices rise faster than incomes, and during those times, failure to buy means either you buy less later, or you wait out the real estate cycle and buy after the next crash. In short, you won’t be priced out forever, but you can be priced out for long periods of time. Failure to buy during price rallies becomes a move-down; this in turn feeds the move-up myth.
The only real move up occurs when you either (1) save money from your wage income, or (2) you get a significant pay raise and can afford a larger mortgage. Those are the only two ways to move up.
Given the importance of savings to obtain better real estate, move-up home ownership must utilize cashflow savings techniques in order to be successful. You must buy a property for less than its rental equivalence and pocket the difference. Owning small condominiums does have a legitimate place in the move-up market, not by providing savings through appreciation, but by providing an opportunity to save through a cost of housing that is less than rent. Of course, this requires the discipline of saving–a virtue in short supply in California–but if you can own a small condo and save extra money, you have taken the first step toward move-up home ownership.
Cashflow saving through ownership will become popular again once condos like today’s featured property crash all the way down to investor levels. The people who buy for move-up at those prices will be in a position to accomplish their goal or saving to buy a nicer property. That is the way the move-up market works in the rest of the country. It is coming to California again soon.
Asking Price: $299,000
Income Requirement: $74,750
Downpayment Needed: $59,800
Monthly Equity Burn: $2,491
Purchase Price: $300,000
Purchase Date: 8/26/2003
Address: 294 Lemon Grove, Irvine, CA 92618
Beds: | 2 |
Baths: | 2.5 |
Sq. Ft.: | 1,154 |
$/Sq. Ft.: | $259 |
Lot Size: | – |
Property Type: | Condo/Co-op |
Community: | IRVINE |
County: | Orange |
MLS#: | 09-350463 |
Source: | TheMLS |
Status: | Active |
On Redfin: | 87 days |
2 MASTER SUITES * 2.5 BATHROOMS * ENCLOSED PATIO * TILE COUNTERS *
VAULTED CEILINGS * LAUNDRY CLOSET * 2 STORY * HOA INCLUDES 2 POOLS @
SPA, LIGHTED TENNIS COURTS, CLUBHOUSE & WORKOUT ROOM * HOA DUES
INCLUDE EQ INSURANCE, HAZARD INSURANCE, WATER AND TRASH PICK UP
ALL CAPS
Asterisks instead of periods
Recording Date: | 04/21/2009 |
Document Type: | Notice of Default |
Document #: | 2009000194237 |
- Redfin did not pick up the 2003 sale of this property. It was purchased on 8/26/2003 for $300,000. The owner used a $240,000 first mortgage, a $60,000 second mortgage, and a $0 downpayment.
- On 4/29/2003 she refinanced with a $316,000 first mortgage.
- On 8/3/2005 she opened a HELOC for $55,000.
- On 5/11/2006 she opened a HELOC for $55,000.
- On 7/31/2007 she refinanced with a $385,500 Option ARM with a 2% teaser rate. The credit crunch occurred 8 days later.
- Total debt is $385,000 plus negative amortization.
- Total mortgage equity withdrawal is $85,000.
This owner managed to withdrawal $85,000 in four years of ownership. In all likelihood, this woman spent the money. Even if she had tried to use it to move up, the properties she would have been bidding on would have appreciated by at least $85,000 so she was no better off in 2007 than she was in 2003.
The fact that so many people spent their appreciation rather than saved it or put it into a move-up shows just how depleted our savings really are. Sure, our market is currently being supported at low volumes by a few people with large cash downpayments, but that cannot continue forever. High prices did not happen because people with cash bought properties; it happened because people with no cash were allowed to bid whatever they wanted for real estate. Once the buyers with cash have purchased their knives, the weight of supply will push prices down again.
{book4}
Move Along – The All-American Reject
Speak to me, when all you got to keep is strong
Move along, move along like I know you do
And even when your hope is gone
Move along, move along just to make it through
Move along
Move along