Today’s property is a perfect example of how negative amortization loans given to people who can not afford the payments destroy property values.
In this one section of street in the Villages of Columbus there are three properties for sale: 27, 28 and 30 Desert Willow (links on the numbers.) Two of them are adjacent and the third is directly across the street. They are all of similar size and character, and the sellers paid similar amounts for them.
However, the seller of today’s featured property got behind on his payments and went into default. As a final effort to get out of this property, he put it for sale at a drastically reduced price. The neighbors can’t be too pleased.
.
Asking Price: $850,000
Purchase Price: $1,286,863
Purchase Date: 5/3/2006
Address: 28 East Desert Willow, Irvine, CA 92606
1st Loan — $943,629
2nd Mtg. — $251,634
Down Pmt. — $91,600
Beds: 5
Baths: 3
Sq. Ft.: 2,790
$/Sq. Ft.: $305
Lot Size: 7,800 sq. ft.
Year Built: 2006
Stories: 2
Type: Single Family Residence
County: Orange
MLS#: S495550
Status: Active
On Redfin: 14 days
From Redfin, “Incredible 5 Bedroom, almost new with many upgrades. To appreciate thi s home you must make an appointment to SEE IT IN PERSON. Near Schools, park and shopping. Perfect family home. Too many upgrades to list.”
.
.
As you can see from the financing details, this is a short sale, and it almost certainly will not be approved by the lender. It is not uncommon in these situations for the second mortgage holder to get wiped out, but rarely will the first mortgage holder take a loss. They would rather foreclose, buy the property for the amount of the first mortgage and go through their loss mitigation procedures. It is possible they think it will cost them less this way, but I doubt it.
Just for the sake of Schadenfreude let’s calculate the theoretical loss on this property: There was a closing on 5/3/2006 at which Lennar walked away with $1,286,863. If this house sells for its asking price, and a 6% commission is paid to a broker, there will be $799,000 left to pay off the various parties. That is a total loss of $487,863. First, the owner will lose $91,600, then the 2nd mortgage holder will lose $251,634, and finally the primary mortgage holder will lose $144,629.
This can’t be good news for the owners at 27 Desert Willow hoping to get $1,188,000 for their house, or the owners at 30 Desert Willow hoping to get $1,279,000? Once a similar property sells for $850,000, what chance to they have of getting their wishing price?
On Sunday’s post on Home Sales Data thru 7-16-2007, I posted this chart with the increased insurance premium lenders are being charged to insure the most stable subprime borrowers. The reason this insurance is becoming so expensive is because of situations like this one where primary mortgage holders are getting burned, and insurers are having to pay off claims.
This is also why mortgage interest rates are going to rise. Future borrowers are going to have to pay the increased insurance costs and make up for the losses on these loans made during the bubble.
It only gets worse from here.
.
I would like to thank EvaLSeraphim for pointing out this property and helping me with some property data.
WOW a true COMP killa!
BTW..that whole section is one of the fugliest in all of Irvine..I wonder to myself who the hell would buy those homes.
Worse design ever!
—–
I agree that having any of the lenders approve that price isn’t going to happen.
So instead of the swift hand of the market weighing in, this process will drag out through foreclosure and the day of reckoning is postponed.
Interestingly, taxes look current. Did the records show the mortage as delinquent?
$850k for a 5 bedroom and driveway is pretty reasonable, even if it is Columbus Square.
Maybe they are trying to start a “bidding frenzy”…?
SCHB
If the selling price hasn’t been approved by the lender for a short sale, what’s the reason it’s been listed at the price?
When I see these priced below what the lender will accept, I do wonder what’s the point. The bidding frenzy is the only reason I can see. The lenders must freak out a bit on these when they don’t generate much buying interest.
Does it have granite counter tops?
Perhaps the realtor is trying to see how far they need to come down to actually get offers on the home?
You could actually get this short approved if the realtor was extremely diligent about doing their research on comparissons and what other home in a 1 mile radius had sold for… do a ‘REO roundup’ in the area to compare, $/sqft. analysis, etc.
Give the info in an easy to read, intelligent format to the bank for consideration. If they determine that they stand to lose more REO vs short sale, they will approve. It’s all about convincing them of that (And that can take a miracle sometimes… loss mit departments are like the Taco Bell of the bank…).
‘Priced below what the lender will accept’ is a tough to validate.
If house A is on the market for 6 months, and has had tons of price drops month after month without getting a SINGLE offer… and then after a more severe correction you can actually get a real buyer to make an offer… that is the true value of the home.
If the bank stands to lose more money from foreclosure/REO sale (due to a still decreasing market and the time to get it to market after foreclosure) than they will from your short sale, AND if you can CONVINCE them of that fact, they should accept.
This could also be a realtor who is just frustrated at the market and is ‘fishing’ to see where a home needs to be priced to actually get offers right now. 🙂
Yeah, looks from a distance like giallo portofino granite with light cherry cabinets and stainless (of course!!!)
My opinion is that the lenders are currently not in a position to be convinced that a lower price now would be a reasonable strategic option. The fluff in the median price is contributing to this.
We are still seeing way too many lender properties sitting on the market (along with everything else) at unaggressive, unmotivated prices. They aren’t trying to rid themselves of the properties, they are trying to get all or almost all of their money back, and currently those are two different activities.
The herd of lenders has remained (I’ll say surprisingly) calm so far, but once they get spooked, a stampede will occur and the true prices will be revealed.
SCHB
1.2M in May 06? It was a “GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!!”
These are downright charming compared to some of the pink boxes in West Irvine.
Here is a nominal example:
http://redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=833449
SCHB
Could it be because some of these banks are still in very good financial shape?
WaMu just boosted their dividend. Though it was only by a penny.
Certainly a bank that is doing well is under less pressure to get these homes off their books.
But how long is a bank willing to hold on to a property to avoid realizing a loss? 1 year? probably. 2 years? maybe. 3 years? doubt it. I’m not in the banking business, so I don’t know.
Up until now, there have been no obvious external pressures to get these assests repriced. That could change, similar to how the S&P and Moody’s bond ratings started a few weeks ago.
SCHB
1.2m+ for a 2800 sq ft home in VoC?? What were they thinking? At 850, it’s probably priced right for current market, but could still go down..
Would unloading an REO be the kind of thing that a bank would be more motivated to do at the end of a fiscal quarter, or fiscal year? (Or beginning of year?)
Not sure, but I expect it will come from some external source- specific shareholder presssure, goverment inquiry, another forced selloff by a competitor, etc.
Total hunch and nothing more.
SCHB
So much for peak selling season….
U.S. Economy: Home Sales Decline More Than Forecast (Update2)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aiK6ScaJwvu8&refer=home
Purchases declined 3.8 percent to an annual rate of 5.75 million, the slowest pace since November 2002, from a revised 5.98 million in May, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington.
Oh.
You have to factor in holding cost and other stuff for the banks. A good bit of the time they might want to drag out the process especially if it ends up on the books as a loss next year.
They might say… well taxes… liens…. meh, hold on for another six months.
Subprime Mess Fueled by Crack Cocaine Accounting: Jonathan Weil
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aIOWGBzzWpNo&refer=home
Here is a question for those in the lending industry……
Do the banks yet have any idea how far they expect the RE market to fall? Do they sit down and do a cost analysis to figure out to sell now or hold ? Who do the banks turn to to get a prediction of the market trends?
My bet is that they are running around like a bunch of headless chickens with no idea what to do…….
Has anyone noticed Lansner’s back from vacation but the OCRegister home page doesn’t have any links to his recent blog entries…
Usually they have at least 1, if not 2.
This is actually not too far off from today’s comps. William Lyon Homes is selling a brand new home in the Astoria community at CS for under $905K – 3150sf, upgraded granite, recessed lighting, ss appliances, surround sound. Another in CS, the Verandas community has a 2400sf at $730K. These are published prices, not negotiated down prices. So $850K for 2700sf is right in line with that in today’s market. Those other units are just dreaming.
Yes there is a notice of default recorded on this property. It was recorded on May 3rd so it’s only a matter of time before The Bank takes it.
It won’t be the only one in that little area owned by The Bank. 64 Juneberry (one street over from Desert Willow) is bank owned, and 41 Desert Willow looks like it will soon be bank owned as well.
Just curious, does anyone think these houses are worth over $1 Million? Perhaps they will be by the year 2025?
who on god’s green earth would pay almost 1.3 mil for this house???
Are you sure this is the right address? I couldn’t find the property’s title information on Realquest.
Great article! Question for our intrepid bloggers and readers:
What were the signs of the end of the last real estate bust in the mid 1990’s? When did it end? Were homes selling for less than their rental value (that is did the rent equal or exceed mortgage payment)?
Is the rent cost vs. ownership cost (mortgage payment) the bellweather on which we should focus to determine when this bust might be over?
Thanks,
Dave
If you are trying to time the exact bottom, watch the ratio of total available inventory to Notice of Trustee sales. This ratio will fall below 2 and stay there for the duration of the decline. When it moves back above, the bottom is at hand.
Rich Toscano has done some great work on this over at
http://piggington.com/
For myself, once I can cover a payment with my rent, I will start looking to buy. I don’t care if I time the bottom as long as I can save money on my rent and control my own housing destiny.
I remember my version of when the bottom hit in Dec. 1995 (this was in San Diego). After six months of looking at condos, a 4-bdrm house dropped in price by 30% and I was able to buy that.
I found out later that it had been on and off the market at ridiculously high prices for four years! A finalized divorce settlement finally knocked the price down precipitously. I foresee this same scenario playing out this time around too but foreclosures bringing the prices down sharply more than divorces.
By my estimation, 2009 is going to be a very interesting year.
It could be that Realquest is slow to update. My search came up with the same result. It also could be the County recorder not being up to date. I looked one up last month that had four people on title because the new APNs weren’t up to date. They are really slow when it comes to new homes partly because the builder is slow to get them the info. Gotta love the County.
I think this also means that any hedge funds that need to hedge losses on MBS are cooked because the cost of protection is more than the losses already suffered. They cannot take more losses, they cannot hedge, and they cannot sell. They can only ride it down…
Protect your money, and happy bidding on the other side.
I think the banks are holding tight for a very good reason. They are pumping the 10 year interest only refi with option Neg-AM payment a t 6.75% like mad dogs.
If they can get the majority of those that are going to get pinched refi’d, they buy themselves three more years before they start the NOD process again, which will be just long enough for this critter to get to bottom and start turning around which will allow the banks to deal with the losses in the “far” future.
fun viewing: not in Irvine but some of you will get a kick out of it.
Many of these homes are also for rent!
http://www.dreamhomesmagazine.com/Homes~poplocation~Laguna%20Niguel~dsp~Luxury_Real_Estate_For_Sale~sort~Newest~startrow~21.htm
10 Saint Tropez is insanely spectacular. Every room has an ocean view, right on the edge of Pacific Park Drive. It is for sale for 4 million or for rent for 10k a month. If you could rent it for only 10k, why would you buy it??
Assume 1.2 mil down payment (30%) and a 10 year interest only @ 6.5% on the remaining 2,800,000. Your IO payment would be $15,167. Your monthly tax bill would be $4,167 a month (assuming 1.25% tax rate). Insurance on a place like this will be at least $800 a month. This puts the total housing budget at $20,134. This is paying no principal. You also have to consider the opportunity cost of the interest you could earn on the 1.2 mil down payment. Assuming 6% interest that would be $6,000 a month in pre-tax interest earned!
An apples to apples comparison would be: Either purchase and have pre-tax negative cash flow payments of over 20k a month OR rent and have a pre-tax negative cash flow payments of 4k a month and remain liquid….
Is there a square footage or age of the home there somewhere? Couldn’t find it.
NSR, Does this type of loan violate the new guidelines from the regulators – fed, FDIC, etc – requiring assessment of affordability using full level amortization at the highest rate of interest? In other words, do you think it will it go away quickly, or is it here for long enough to make a difference?
1st lender losing almost $500k, second getting wiped out at $250K but the
FB only gettin F’ed out of $91K?
Sounds fishy… The bank NEVER loses the game like that!
This is getting ugly.
Impossible! Think about it. As mortage prices go down, rents will go down as well. It’s an asymptotic convergence.
Remember the old physics problem? If I’m in a moving boat on a lake and I stop rowing when will the boat stop? The answer is never, but it will cover a finite distance.
Similarly, at some point, RE owners may prefer to limit their downside by creating some -any- cashflow and rent out the properties. As more and more rentals come on the market, rents become competitive and drop.
Laguna Nigel is SOOO PASSE! (And so fake!)
Tuscan Villas and pink stucco homes.
Don’t they know that’s passe? Like not just yesterday, but like eons ahead. They’re about ten years behind Irvine. (TRidge was a mistake.. .a transitional stage between Tuscani and South Pasadena.
The new style is neo Craftsman.
The only place a Tuscan Villa makes sense is along Bommer Canyon. I figure that the HOA will hire a sheepherder and get some sheep just to complete the illusion. 😉
In the meantime, watch for Tuscan Villas in Eastern Washington and Colorado. At that point you will know the trend is truly dead.
Bring on the craftsman style.
SLAB granite ? Any alcoves or nooks ?
This is in the Westbourne development. Overpriced to start off with, glad it’s taking a haircut. What were the buyers thinking?!
the bank might never want to lose that kind of money, but that’s what happens when everybody qualifies…also the “FB” wouldn’t only lose $91,000 as he will have to pay taxes on the money the banks lost. I know, still screwed up.
What will happen more and more in the future is that those loans that are usually sold in bundles to other investment groups will get checked and they will knock back at the door of the previous holder of the note and also the broker that did the loan in the first place. I’ve heard about this first hand through connections within this industry.
Keep in mind that this is screwed up, but it’s the lenders fault. They never should have accepted something like that in the first place. It’s very easy to walk away from a loan and mortgage fraud did also take place. Party A selling to Party B for a high amount. Party A gives money under the table to Party B. Party B misses payments and forecloses yet Party A still has all the money from the overpriced home transaction…
It will get really ugly because the economy of this county relies so heavily on the Real Estate Sector. Wait until sales comps come back negative across the board, at that time it will have spread way beyond subprime as even A paper loans that are at high LTV (many of them) cannot refinance due to the lack of equity / upside down. At that time, much of OC won’t bring home the bacon to pay their monthly mortgage on their family home and also on all the reinvestments that are rented out or empty with a high monthly maintenance cost. That’s when the general public will realize how crazy this market once was.
It is amazing how everything gets twisted and facts gets mixed up. I am the listing agent for this property in Irvine. Irvine is one of the most desireable locations to live in Orange County. Homes in the area sell in the ranges of Mid 700K to 3.5 million. The truth is a little more than your hopeless article.
My strategy has never been to sell this property in Irvine at 850K.. Of course if I thought 850 was possible I would buy it myself. In MLS Multiple Listing one has the option to set ranges in setting pricing. The idea of Range in pricing is to give more exposure to a listing.
The owner of this property was victim of a vicious real estate scam. Unforutnately this is not the only property in trouble. Our goal is help me settle with as many banks as possible. The idea of mulitple offer allows this house to sell faster and more qualified buyers compete for this purchase. In a normal slow market, a seller is lucky to get 1 or 2 offer in a 30-90 days time. Some homes have been sitting more than 6 months and still no offer. Here we are able to allow qualified buyers compete for this home at a range of prices. Serious buyers know value and definitely they will pay more to stay in the game. I already have multiple offers for this property and I anticipate it will sell well over 850,000.00-1,100.000.00 asking price.
It seems everyone in the news group love negative information about real estate but they fail to get the facts before printing and writing garbage and “NOT CONFIRMED” data. I hope you find this email and publish it and give the REALTOR’s side of the news. (listing agent for 28 Desert willow)
This market is tough, we don’t need help from you (News and media folks) to make it harder on us. I am not trying to create negative publicity. I am just trying to do my best for my clients. We have limited time and I am not in the luxury of months and months of wait-time between offers. To get the highest price for my client’s home and to allow them to get out of this mess with the least amount of damage I have to be very aggressive. My methods definitely generate leads and offers for my clients. We start at a low price and we quickly climb above expectations. Sometimes I get offers more than what the bank is asking or looking for. Sometimes my listing becomes an REO. Sometimes the higherst offer wins and a small percentage of the time, the owner comes up with the cash and is able to keep their home.
I like the last option. The HOPE side of life. It is rare these days. However in Orange County and especially in Irvine the REAL ESTATE is strong and doing well. I don’t see many discounts and definitely not too many foreclosures. I have been getting 20 calls an hour on this listing. I don’t anticipate I will have to wait too much longer before I have the right offer for my listing. It has been crazy and your publicity is helping in a very crazy way.
Stay true and honest to the facts. That is all I ask
tony@jcbeachproperties.com and web http://www.massivediscounthomes.com
Real estate scam?
The plot thickens.
I’d like to hear how Lennar conspired in on this scam.
Tony, thanks for the entertainment!
“It is amazing how everything gets twisted and facts gets mixed up.” – You don’t have to remind us about that. You and your ilk have been pumping RE for the past 7 years saying things like RE never goes down, buy now or forever be priced out, etc.
I love how your Massive Discount Homes web site claims that you buy “properties below market value and sell them below market value…” How saintly of you! So let’s see, you buy a property from a distressed seller (perhaps a former client?) and then you receive multiple offers, but do not sell to the highest bidder because you like to “sell below market value”?
I didn’t think so. Not really “true and honest to the facts” are you?
“However in Orange County and especially in Irvine the REAL ESTATE is strong and doing well. I don’t see many discounts and definitely not too many foreclosures. ”
The REALTOR [TM] has spoken!
Thank you for posting to our blog. I can appreciate what you are trying to do. In fact, I applaud your aggressive pricing as it helps discover where the market is really at. I hope you continue to do so because I will discover those listings and feature them here on the blog. You might find it is a strange symbiosis, or we might just annoy you. Either way, it is not my problem.
As far as I know, the blog entry is true and honest to the facts. If there are facts in dispute with the blog entry you would like corrected for the record, please let me know. I read some bluster about twisted facts, but I didn’t see any specific corrections you would like made.
If you would like to email me when you sell a property, I would be delighted to post the sales price as an update. If the market is strong, the sales price will show it. If the market is weak, the sales price will show that too. I am interested in facts as are the readers of this blog.
As for our interpretation of the facts and events in the housing market, we will just have to agree to disagree. If you think I am going to candy coat the turd, that is not going to happen. I will leave that to you.
Tony,
Thanks for your comments. We try our best here at IHB to get the facts as straight as we can with the sources we have.
However in your little over two years of real estate experience you should know that if you have a website like your massive discount homes site the broker’s license number must be listed on the site. Also that would be a DBA and would need to be listed on your broker’s license as such. Not only is this a violation of the Realtor code of ethics but a DRE violation as well. It is also a violation to offer a home for sale at $850k because that says the owner is willing to accept that offer and all “reasonable” offers must be presented. If you only had an offer at $850k it would be reasonable. So before you preach about how IHB is missing facts and that we should stay true and honest you should practice what you preach.
I also agree with IrvineRenter that if there are facts missing please list those facts. Ranting on about the media and blogs just makes you look silly and you will probably be treated as such here.
The fact is there are a lot of foreclosures and many more are coming. As long as OC’s 40% conversion ratio of NODs to REOs continues there will be well over 2000 more by the end of the year. So you will have plenty of business coming your way. If the market was so strong we wouldn’t have these llittle problems. But please let us know when this one sells as we all would like to know and how much it sells for too.
Tony,
I’m the person who went to the Recorder’s Office and found the public documents and I stand behind my research. If those documents are not the whole story, please advise.
The Recorder’s Office is now closed, but will be open again on Monday. I can obtain copies to demonstrate proof and post them here, if that is what you’d like (redacting the names and identifying info because I’m not a jerk). I don’t believe that a retraction is called for, but if you believe that it is, I would like an explanation as to why.
Do you ever get the feeling that when it is someone’s job to use whatever words are necessary to accomplish their goal, they lose track of the difference between the truth and a lie, and even forget that their are folks who can tell the difference quite readily. It seems that they are used to people just accepting what they say because they are saying it, and they forget their are some who can discriminate.
in Irvine the REAL ESTATE is strong and doing well. I don’t see many discounts and definitely not too many foreclosures.
As usual, I think your observations are insightful and to the point.
So Tony, the suggestion of a bidding frenzy in the 3rd and 4th comment was correct?
Shocking.
SCHB
Tony,
Along with the multiple DRE violations on your website, I love how you plaster the words “Instant Equity” on the POS places you are trying to resell. Is that your promise..do you stand behind that statement? How do the people that bought from you first time around feel. Maybe you should go down to the shelter and ask them.
Yeah!!!
However, there is a difference Astoria is in Tustin.
You’re comparing apples and oranges.
The listing agent is generating calls then switch and bait.
I remember going into VoC in Feb and there were the huge 3,500-4,200 sqf homes in the 1.1-1.3 range. Of course, the backyards were almost non-existant, but that’s besides the point. I really don’t see peole wanting to pay over 1m for these desert willow properties.
and to Tony,
I’d consider hiring someone with at least minimal web skills, because it seems whoever built your site doesn’t know too much about aesthetics or web design. I can forward you to several online free resources for creating better websites. 😉
I tried to buy this home for $850k cash. No deal.
This is simply a sales tactic to list the home signficantly under market value to entice offers and start a bidding process. For those of you not familiar with Irvine real estate, this home is probaly worth $1.05-1.1 MM. Maybe less if it continues to sit on the market.
I can’t quite understand how someone paid $1.29 for this property. I am a bit suspicious to say the least. I would pay up to $950 for tis property, but the bank would never let the seller walk away at that price.
IrvineHomeOwner
What was their counter offer?
How about 833 Polaris Dr., sold in december of 05 for $1,188,500. Forclosure in June of 07 and now for sale at $966,900. Ouch!!!
Tustin Field it littered with bubble destruction:
1334 Sun Dial, on the market now @ $959K, bought in 2006 for $1.03M + landscaping. After commissions at list, they stand to lose $160K.
847 Polaris, recently closed at $1.0M. Paid $1.06M + landscaping. Realtor owned, so probably only lost $125K.
837 Polaris, recently closed at $1.05M. Paid $1.03M + landscaping + flooring (I don’t think they had the builder do it) for a total all-in of around $1.08-$1.09M. Lost around $100K in one year of ownership…
There are 5-6 houses listed on Voyager right now. I am sure countless of hundreds of thousands will be lost on those once they finally sell.
The sale of this property is nothing more than a scam. The the bank is not selling the home, currently. The home is being sold by con-artist of an agent. He was to auction the property. This is what he wrote: “*** AUCTION *** will be held at the Premises 6pm Tuesday night October 2nd. Must be present with a cashier check for 45,000.00USD. You can not place offers without the cashier check. Please make cashier check to Advanced Escrows Corp. Call Tony for details – XXX-XXX-XXXX. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity to own a Lenner home at a incredible price. See this property Sunday, Monday and Tuesday 1:00pm – 5:00pm Auction 6pm on Tuesday night. Current appraiseal over 1.1M.”
They want $45K up front and need to close escrow within 48 hrs. There is no way. Talk about a scam.
41 Desert Willow is now listed as REO on Wells Fargo site… The weeping here is just going to get worse! 41 is at least on the non-Harvard side of the street. Curious what price they will put on it.
The last REO Wells did a price on hasn’t moved at all, 15 Pacific Crest in NP Square. It sits at $979K while there are three other of the same model on the market at $870-925K. So much for banks killing the comps, at least so far.
http://redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1303038
Price: $999,000
Redfin Savings: $19,980*
41 Desert Willow
Irvine, CA 92606
Beds: 4
Baths: 3.5
Sq. Ft.: 2,800
$/Sq. Ft.: $357
Lot Size: 6,500 sq. ft.
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Other
Year Built: 2006
Stories: Two Levels
View(s): Mountain
Area: Columbus Grove
County: Orange
MLS#: P610871
Status: Active
On Redfin: 1 day
New Listing (24 hours)
Back on the market! Over $115,000 in custom upgrades. Located in one of Irvine’s most prestigious new community with the finest schools in the state. Gorgeous 4 bedroom, 3.5 bathroom with upstairs laundry, dual air conditioning, prewired for surround sound. Kitchen has granite counters, stainless steel appliances and built in fridge. You have to see this home to truly appreciate the beauty.
Thank you for the update. I wonder if the short sale is approved at the new asking price?
It’s not a short. This home is proudly owned by Wells Fargo Home Mortgage… It’s on their REO site.
Seems like WFHM is getting more aggressive on moving its REO inventory. They slashed the list price on their NP Square REO by $110K this week, from $979K WTF to $869K at least in the ballpark.