A PROMISE to California,
Or inland to the great pastoral Plains, and on to Puget sound and Oregon;
Sojourning east a while longer, soon I travel toward you, to remain,
to teach robust American love,
For I know very well that I and robust love belong among you,
inland, and along the Western sea;
For these States tend inland and toward the Western sea, and I will also.
Walt Whitman – Leaves of Grass
The dream of riches in California real estate is a Siren’s Song to many with a robust love of money. Unfortunately for the rollbacks I am featuring today — 3 Woodleaf and 28 Meadowgrass — the lure of easy money caused them to crash on the rocks.
Asking Price: $449,900
Purchase Price: $469,000
Purchase Date: 10/24/2005
Address: 3 Woodleaf, Irvine, CA 92604
Beds: 2
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 1,140
Year Built: 1982
Stories: 1
Type: Condominium
View: Trees/Woods
County: Orange
Neighborhood: Woodbridge
$/Sq. Ft.: $395
MLS#: M104975
Status: Active on market
On Redfin: 161 days
Unsold in 90+ days
From Redfin, “Upper End Unit – Tree Views – Newer Carpet, Tile Floor, Microwave & In terior Paint, Plantation Shutters – Shows Like A Model Truly Turnkey – Large Rooms – 2 Master Suites – Close To Schools, Shopping & Freeways – Lake – Pool & Spa – Very Clean & Bright – Scraped Ceilings – Mirrored Wardrobes – Storage Area -“
Tree views? So now if you have a tree out your window, you have a view? What next, air views?
.
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In the post, Wish Upon a Fallingstar, we showed comps for condos like this are going for $400,000 or less. This is about $50,000 overpriced if they really want to sell it. That fact aside, if they somehow manage to get their asking price, they still stand to lose $46,094 assuming a 6% commission. I am estimating this loss will be closer to $100,000 by the time they sell it. Losing $50,000 to $100,000 on a condo for which the seller paid less than $500,000 is a huge loss.
Asking Price: $710,000
Purchase Price: $730,000
Purchase Date: 4/29/2005
Address: 28 Meadowgrass, Irvine, CA 92604
Beds: 3
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 1,545
Lot Sq. Ft.: 4,512
Year Built: 1977
Stories: 1
Type: Single Family Residence
County: Orange
Neighborhood: Woodbridge
$/Sq. Ft.: $460
MLS#: S486737
Status: Active on market
On Redfin: 51 days
From Redfin, “Nestled in the prestigious Woodbridge community and steps to the Stone Creek Swim Club, this home is upgraded throughout. Brazilian cherrywood floors highlight the open floor plan that includes separate dining and huge family room, breakfast nook, atrium, and step-down sitting area with cozy fireplace. Gourmet kitchen includes granite counters, recessed lighting and stainless steel appliances. Large professionally landscaped yard with slate patio, raised planters, and sculptured vegetation. “
.
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We saw a good comparable for this property in Woodbridge Knife-Catchers. 52 Shearwater, Irvine, CA 92604 sold on 3/29/2007 for $629,000. What chance does this seller have of getting $710? Again, even if this sells for asking price, the seller still stands to lose $62,600 after commissions. I am estimating the ultimate loss to be closer to $150,000 based on the recent comp sale.
As you can plainly see, we are rolling back all of 2005 and we are now back into 2004 pricing. Personally, I am amazed at how fast this is happening. Real estate markets usually do not collapse this quickly. Don’t look at the wishing prices, pay attention to the transactions. This market is deteriorating fast.
27 Shearwater sold for 740K in 11/06. I’m guessing that 52 Shearwater was thinking that they could get flip it for more as it’s at the end of the cul-de-sac. Seems like a myopic view from so many perspectives. Maybe it’s the trees that are blocking their views. lol
—–
Historically, Woodbridge sells for less than Turtle Rock. This “single family home” is simply overdone. I mean why put luxury stuff on a small house with no chance of being enlarged?
The smart money would leave a house like this simple and then move on to a larger nicer home in a better area.
Woodbridge above 400 bucks per square foot? At $460 when you can buy homes on TR for around 400? And the HOA fees in TR are lower too!
Sorry, Woodbridge is not “prestigious”… it’s a sea condos on the flat lands surrounding two man made lakes. There are precious very few nice homes on the lake (my friend used to own one, it was great for 4th of July BBQs) but by an by it’s just a bunch of condos and small homes.
I’d pay 300 bucks per square foot for that house. The condo? Forget it… I don’t know why people buy condos that have apartment form factors.
Where can you find actual sale prices of real estate?
$449,900 x .06 = $26,994 plus $20,000 = $46,994.00
(An extra $900.00)
Wow! This amount already more than pays for renting an apartment the last couple of years. More like the last 3 years!
Now I know what it is like to make “easy money”. The Siren song is very pleasant indeed!
Summer is just starting, but it looks like “Fall” is already here!
LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The transactions are moving so slowly its hard to establish comps for the areas involved. Will be a long while.
Interesting to see how many realtors (r) are getting caught in my area.
Something like that meadowgrass property would be perfect for my parents… no stairs, flat, full sized drive way, and HOA takes care of all landscaping. The price, however, is way out of line.
LAEF2,
What do you mean by “realtors getting caught”?
Are you talking about realtors who purchased homes in your neighborhood with the express purpose of flipping them?
(Please say yes!).
I love the poetic justice of realtors getting burned by the declining market.
So one of my colleagues at work lives in irvine and I happened to ask him (knowing only too well) where the market is headed in irvine.
To my utter surprise he turned around and very confidently proclaimed that the market would be strong in Irvine giving the usual Irvine is immune to price corrections theory. I did not get it at that point since this guy said he was renting in Irvine.
A few days later I found out that he is actually a week-end warrior – realtor. He even boasted of selling 5 properties in last 3 months. Now I understand his inflated sense of confidence.
Well Irvine Renter, I guess there seems to be a small opening in the clouds
🙂 I suspect this market is going to go down pretty fast. It is the lull before the storm of collapse!
IR,
Why don’t you profile random sales? Seems you only cherry-pick.
IR
Nice post, you said”I am amazed at how fast this is happening. Real estate markets usually do not collapse this quickly. ”
thats why I asked you in a prevous post about you timeline. I like your theory which is well thought out, but on the streets things are happening faster, I guess due to the fact of funny loans eating owners alive. I think prices will be sticky on the way down but because of all the slimmy financing, it will be less sticky than previous busts.
I lived in Woodbridge for a bit when I was very little, and it’s also a great place for a young family (as is pretty much everywhere in Irvine) – pools, lots of green space, obviously very safe as well.
But not at these prices.
Markets move at the edges, downward movement at the bottom of the market is a phenomenon which has been absent for 10 years. This is where the action is.
It sure is getting hot around here! What’s that? ROLLBACK’s, huh? Prices only increase in Filthy Richville! (stomp-stomp)
According to the US Census, Irvine is one of two cities in Orange County with increasing population … too bad they’re building more Irvine dwellings than necessary. However, I do challenge the census on population growth; I think we’re gaining 1.1 illegal workers for every producer that says enough is enough, and leaves. Orange County needs more apartments to house these new workers, not SFRs.
And btw, since we now know that the county is shrinking in producers (per the census), where are all those former OC’ers going?
Lot’s of lessons are gonna be learned in this deal.
I’m poking around Zillow.com, and almost every house I see with a yellow flag (meaning it was recently sold) has a lower sale price than the Zestimate value. Looks like Zillow needs to update their Zestimate formula.
“Markets move at the edges, downward movement at the bottom of the market is a phenomenon which has been absent for 10 years. This is where the action is.”
Blah, blah, blah. Are you saying that’s the only place there are sales? The only place there are losers? What exactly does that mean, and why don’t you answer the actual question. Oh yeah, if you profiled randomly you wouldn’t have the same argument. Oh, and another thing, the builders are still asking very, very healthy numbers for even their low end product. They will not be building the larger product much going forward, so get used to being cramped.
BTW, check out the forums posts. Seems like there are a hellava lot of people out there looking and wanting to pull the trigger soon – just like your wife.
Why don’t you quit changing your ID. Your sarcastic, permabull, writing style is so obvious … I can spot it a mile away! Stop being cowardly, Ken, and start defending your position without your reckless nonsense.
“Seems like there are a hellava lot of people out there looking and wanting to pull the trigger soon – just like your wife.”
Class,
Here is an example of someone in the “Denial” phase that was discussed earlier this week.
MS,
Convenient how you left out the “forum” posts part of this post. My observation came from this very site.
>>
Your observation came from your (comment moderated by blog adminstrator)!
wait for the collapse
WFTC,
Charming. Captain of the debate team???
Curious,
I did answer your question. I guess it wasn’t the answer you wanted to hear.
There will always be people who want to buy houses. Most on this board are content to wait as the value of houses like yours drop another 30%-40% before buying.
You may express your bullish opinions if you wish, but don’t engage in the trollish behavior of your last comments, or you will not be welcome here. Construct a rational argument, and you will be heard: Spout the shrill ravings of a distressed homeowner, and you will not be heard.
If you want to be banned immediately, make another comment concerning my wife…
Seems no opinions other than the prevailing ones are welcome here anyway. There’s no real debate allowed here. Just wild speculation. Good luck to you in getting my home.
actually, d*ckhead, i’ll be buying your home from the bank
It would be interesting to actually read a well thought out and detailed reason as to why housing will go up. However you don’t. All we ever read from the bulls are quick snips with no logic. To me they sound very desperate. By coming here they feel better thinking that they can make fun of the bitter renters.
By the way some of us are owners and we agree that prices are down and are going to go down further. But we were smart and didn’t over extend ourselves.
Good luck riding this market out as the foreclosures keep increasing it could get rough.
More on CDO / derivatives mess, you’re going to love this:
http://tinyurl.com/ypl6vm
I’m sure there could be debate here if somebody offered an opposing viewpoint, supported by facts and data.
I know I’d like to see it.
You must sound smart inside you head, because out here, you seem like a f***ing moron.
Learn to click on the “Reply to this comment” link to reply to a specific person, or did your daddy just now give you access to the internet? Move the mousie thingie over the link and press the button on the left.
Chuck
There you go again – like I said “houses will go up”. What nonsense this all is. What I said was there is pent-up demand. Nothing more, nothing less. Make of that what you will.
Curious — The whole point of this blog is to support an argument that housing prices are too high. So the sales that are profiled are those where the seller is going to lose money or those where the seller has listed their house for an unbelievably high price.
In truth, only about 6% of sellers in the current market will be selling at a loss. Those are primarily sellers that purchased within the last 3 years.
Besides, nobody would read the blog if random sales were profiled. That would be boring.
Ah, no shortage of the foul-mouthed here. That’s always a winning argument. You win by default because people don’t like abuse.
The thing is if you’re looking to buy a place you’re not going to look at a random sample of sales. Any buyer wants to get the best deal possible for any given property and he’ll want to look at comparisons. This blog is doing what smart buyers would do: look at the comparisons and not random samples. I.e. why do I care if $4 million dollar house right on the edge of Newport Beach just got sold? I’m not in the uber-rich market. Yet random sampling would give you these type of sales and scew the median which has happened. Look at the Case-Schiller numbers vs median home price sales: they’re divergent because the lower market and now the middle market are heading off the cliff while the high ticket stuff is still selling well.
I agree there is pent-up demand, but that demand is now for a more reasonable priced housing. The demand before for housing no-matter-what-the-cost is over, it is now for value. The reason houses are not selling is because that “pent up” demand for value housing is not being met by he suppliers (sellers). Further evidence, based on YOUR theory then, that housing prices will drop.
Curious, I hear you. The majority of posters on this blog have the G.W. Bush viewpoint that “if you’re not with us, you’re against us” (or you’re with the terrorists, I forget what the exact quote was). If you express anything other than the most dire prediction for the local housing market, you are labeled a “housing bull” and told that you lack credibility. You may also be told that you’re in denial, you’re a scared homeowner, yadda yadda yadda. Then the posters will explain how they are all the next Warren Buffett because they don’t spend money on anything, not quite grasping that Mr. Buffett didn’t amass his fortune by renting a home.
Intelligent conversation is always appreciated. Most people on this blog enjoy a good debate; however, we don’t appreciate insults that don’t bring any value to this blog.
The crash isn’t happening that fast. It’s doing the same thing that every previous housing crash did. This housing crash is going to be so monstrous in its size that it seems like we are off to the races.
If you compare what’s happening now to what will be happening in 2 years, I believe it’s comparable to the market decline that started in 1988-1989–just on a bigger scale. If history repeats itself, we have at least 4 years before home prices bottom out. That’s 2011. We won’t see prices back at this level until at least another 4 years after that. 2015, and I think that’s generous.
I don’t see too many trolls on this site, but this thread seems to have a couple.
Gepetoh:
I appreciate your well-thought-out argument. Refreshing. I never said prices would rise, or that they would not fall. I just don’t see an endless freefall because even the most negative are talking about buying eventually.
Pioneer10:
Same thing with your comment: articulate and well thought out. I guess I should have clarified that even if you choose a narrow price range to work with, you will still find good & bad deals with winners, losers and those who break even.
To some others, please don’t interpret for me.
A quick and dirty way is zillow.com, but if you want better data you can try the county assessors office. All sale prices of land are public (though I think you can pay to have it private). There are other subscription services that have county assessor’s office data in their database and have a nice interface, but you have to pay.
Warren Buffet did not amass his fortune by buying his home, nor did he obtain it in real estate. He made money by purchasing assets (companies mostly) with good positive cashflow and potential for growth. Neither of these conditions exist in our current residential housing market.
You and Curious can be united in your victimhood if you so desire. It matters not to me. It would be my hope that you would present a reasoned opinion and discuss why you may hold an opinion different from those expressed on this board. If you simply need prices to go up because you are in a difficult financial situation and you don’t want to go underwater on your purchase, sorry, the markets don’t work that way.
“Besides, nobody would read the blog if random sales were profiled. That would be boring.”
Amen brother! Can I get a schadenfreude! Ooooh Ahhh!!
Ken said,
“I just don’t see an endless freefall”
We don’t think so either. We just believe you can’t have a 150 to 200 percent run-up in local RE prices and activity for no apparent fundamental-sustainable-reason, and then not expect a correction on the other side of the cycle. It took 8 years to create this massive ponzi scheme, and right now, we’re just starting the second year of the decline … we’ve easily got another 4-6 years of bear market left. Prices will likely overshoot their fundamental bottom value sometime in the next decade. However, I won’t wait that long … I’m not trying to time the bottom, just trying to buy at a reasonable fair price. We got a long ways to go.
Get used to it.
You know, whenever people talk about the market continuing to go up, their logic seems to be based only on the previous trajectory. When I offer another viewpoint, people then go towards something like “demand” — as if wanting to own a residence is a novel idea, or talking about the “historically low” interest rates compared to the 80’s (Which, seems like it doesn’t really matter to me, but I don’t understand the financial end enough to really articulate why).
On here, I appreciate the facts and figures and trying to understand as much as I can. These arguments seem unambiguously to point south for the market. No savings, exotic loans resetting, psychological bubble logic being a force in previous sales etc seem like strong enough negatives to me to wipe out “demand.” The question I’d ask the bulls is if they could “show me the money.” Where is wave of money that is going to continue being put into the market?
As an aside, I’d say that this is by far the most sh**talking that I have seen on this forum. It’s feeling like some of the car forums I’ve been on. That amount of reaction formation to me means that there is great insecurity (well founded or not) on the part of the bulls, and since psychology matters, I’d say on that basis that you can count me all the more in the bear catagory.
Please go a troll somewhere else. You are seriously losing your argument due to your immature ranting.
I don’t agree. I don’t see any evidence of pent up demand. I would like to see the evidence if it exists.
I think the mere fact that this blog exists should show that there is some pent-up demand…
Now about that affordability problem..
Wait until the end of the year. There are a bunch of ARM resets in November and December.
“but that demand is now for a more reasonable priced housing.”
I AGREE. The combination of loose money, tight land management in Irvine and greed combined to give us “luxury” new homes but nothing else.
Any of you remember that originally Shady Canyon (Planning Area 22) was supposed to have like 2000 or 4000 units? I mean, like thousands of units.
However, the plan was modified to put in far less but MUCH more expensive units.
It is closer to 10% who are currently selling at a loss, and the numbers are only that low because so few are able to sell. Most sit on their properties and suck it up, wishing they could get out and decided to wait 10 years for appreciation to return instead.
Don’t get the mistaken impression that they have not also suffered a tremendous financial loss, though. It’s all about the time value of money and lost opportunities. That’s why I got out of real estate in 2006.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/06/28/real_estate/most_affordable_housing_markets/index.htm?postversion=2007062814
Irvine and Los Angeles are the most unaffordable housing markets. This is downright wrong. The only option seems to be to leave these markets and the ongoing insane prices that people are charging. If you notice on the page above, the incomes are not higher than a lot of other places but people are plain stupid here in California to buy houses at the ongoing rates! That is the only explanation for these mad prices. What an absolute scam! Well the homeowners better be ready for some good old styled valuation battering!
Perhaps you haven’t been on this forum long enough to notice, but that just isn’t true. If you give intelligent, non-insulting debate in either direction, people may not agree with you but they will not dismiss you either. I’m a moderate bear for the moment (I was a bull in ’01-’03), but don’t believe we’re going to see a 40-50% drop in prices. I’ve given reasons why I believe the drops will be more moderate, and have never been insulted for my comments.
If you can support your arguments, they will listen. But just look at the data. I am an analyst by trade, and the numbers just don’t hold up, either fundamentally or technically. Either way you look at it, along with consumer sentiments, and price has nowhere to go but down.
It’s not *just* Schadenfreude. It’s also looking at price changes that might mean I’ll be able to buy a house in a couple years. That’s just straight-up hope.
I must misunderstand the term pent up demand. To me pent up demand means there are more buyers than sellers. And not enough homes for those buyers to buy, thus pent up instead of expended. I do not see how the existence of a blog is evidence that there are more buyers than sellers. Considering there are more homes on the market than previously and those numbers are rising indicates the opposite of pent up demand, more like oversupply. But, maybe I am defining pent up demand incorrectly.
Huh? How about Newport Beach, Laguna, Bel Air, Brentwood, Pacific Palisades, Beverly Hills, Manhattan Beach, Malibu, PV, San Marino, etc… they make Irvine look like Walmart.
Just because someone can’t afford to live in Newport Beach doesn’t mean they deserve to live there.
You can apply the same to Irvine.
Jeez. Come on, let’s get real. One thing is to discuss home values and bubbles, another is to launch socialist rants about affordability of housing in a particular place.
BTW- Anyone looking at South Bay home prices?
Just for Curious. I am part of that pent-up demand but I will NEVER spend more than 35% of take home on a mortgage. Period. I wish potential first time buyers and honest, hard-working people who need a decent home for a decent price would get together and say enough is enough (I think is beginning to happen) and demand that prices come back to historical appreciation value +/- 5 or 6%.
Curious:
Would you not agree that average owner-occupied residential prices for a given area (city or neighborhood) in Southern California will tend to about 3.5 times the area’s average household (post-tax) income, plus 10% for a down payment?
Curious – you are correct. Eventually, houses will go up. The big questions are (1) how far will they fall before they recover and (2) when will the prices again exceed 2006 peaks. Nobody’s doubting that houses will go up — it’s all in the timing. BUT – Many people on this forum care not if they go up or not. They aren’t looking for an appreciating asset, just an affordable, decent place to live. Chill, buddy.
I’m getting a sense that everyone feels entitled to an Irvine home no matter how much they might make.
TONYE
to counter you argument, these places you mentioned were always expensive(now even more expensive), Irvine just got out of control in the past 4-5 years, I know people who bought in 02 for 550k a nice 2500 sqft house with nice yard, brand new, sold in 06 for 1.1mil, nothing has changed about Irvine in the last 5 years to justify this massive run up in price.
thats why I think Irvine will go back to being affordable, some neighborhoods will always be more expensive in Irvine but will revert to their mean 5 years ago plus inflation.
read IRenter’s previous columns about the more expensive areas where people want to make enormous amounts of money for living in the house for a year or so..THESE DAYS ARE GONE.
Funky toe
how about you need to make at least 200k to get into Irvine. read my post just above. NOTHING HAS CHANGED ABOUT IRVINE IN THE PAST 5 YEARS.
average educated working people used to be able to afford a nice house in Irvine, not so more.
Remember though, median is not sensitive to skew, especially in a large data set. “Median” means the “middle value,” not the mean which is average (adding all of the values together and dividing by “n” the number in the data set.)
I’m suspect of the high priced stuff too– the rich are different. . . well, definitely in the housing market. They’re not subject to loan dynamics as much as everyone else is. . .
Actually Irvine has changed quite a bit in the past 5 years. The population has increased from 120,000 to over 200,000 and Irvine made great strides in the transition from suburbia to become the economic center of Orange County.
My friend loves to whine about the fact that he can’t afford to buy an SFH for his wife, kid and dogs here in Irvine. Why does that bug me? His wife refuses to work and he can’t hold a job. He has no money yet that doesn’t matter to him. He is a perpetual victim to the prices here.
Hearing people cry how they feel entitled to a home here at 35% of their salary screams entitlement.
I do agree that prices will come down though.
Sorry, that should read “Hearing people cry how they want a home here at 35% of their salary screams entitlement.”
Sorry, even those with the most reason to spout optimism have changed their tune. When even CAR sounds that negative, it’s pretty much inevitable.
Link to California Association of Realtors below
http://www.car.org/
Funky Toe….it has nothing to do with entitlements rather affordability. This is not NYC where you have people who actually make alot of money and their is no where else to build except up. Here you have alot of blue color and white color individuals that make roughly $80K / yr, the median, and are priced way out of the market…even in surrounding cities.
Why is it, that small minds inevitably mention wives and mothers at their point of frustration ? Curious, you are truly a Jack*ass.
Funky toe–>Actually Irvine has changed quite a bit in the past 5 years. The population has increased from 120,000 to over 200,000 and Irvine made great strides in the transition from suburbia to become the economic center of Orange County.
good point but unless these 80,000 people who moved here have an average income of 200k, Irvine is way up in the sky as far as prices. Most people I know still make the same amount of money, most of them who moved to Irvine can not (or should I say will not)buy despite making very good incomes. so again we are back to crazy lending, bubble mentality..etc that pushed up prices.
I acknowledge that Irvine is a nice place but like you said prices will come down, we just disagree how much.
plus with all the subprime lenders (some in Irvine with high paying jobs) and construction jobs leaving and with the effect of house price decreases, I wonder if Irvine will reverse from the economic center of Orange County to become suburbia agian to some extent.
OC will always be a nice place like I said but I believe that most people (and neighborhoods) will feel the effects of the oncoming correction to some extent for a certain period of time whether you are a bull or a bear.
Tonye,
Why are you scared that places like Irvine are going to lose the H-Y-P-E about being the pay-crazy-prices-if-you-have-to-live-here-city?
There is a lot of crappy hype created about Irvine and to an extent Irvine Company is responsible for this state of affairs. The other problem is the herd mentality of Asians, Indians, Persians who seem to follow what their ethnic brothers/sisters are doing without evaluating the dumb prices they are paying. I am one of these ethnic groups and have no shame admitting that the herd mentality has caused a lot of price inflation. The other reasons of course are more evident and the causes are common to the national housing bubble situation.
Peace out!
Does the net exodus of 80,000 smart californians to other states last year ring a bell? Well these folks definitely rang their cash register and took that dumb buyer money elsewhere to put it to smart use!
Lendingmaestro,
I agree with your time line…..in 2015 we will see 2006 prices again.
I disagree. I think 2003 prices are the “real” real estate cycle prior peak. 2004-2006 is an anamoly based on a credit bubble and universal 100% LTV access on “your word”.
Interest link regarding affordability
The most affordable U.S. housing markets
http://money.cnn.com/2007/06/28/real_estate/most_affordable_housing_markets/index.htm?postversion=2007062814
“California dominated the list of most unaffordable cities with just 3.0 percent of Los Angeles residents able to buy the median home, priced at $525,000. In nearby Santa Ana ($610,000, 4.4 percent)”
Irvine has always been expensive. Back in January of ’87 when we were planning to buy a house, the new homes in Westpark were going for 180K to 205K
Our fixer upper in TR went for 200K.
We could have bought a house in most of the county for far less money.
The crazy run up has affected ALL places. While I think those ritzy coastal areas are for the rich, wealthy, massively indebted, would be celebrities and/or criminally affected, Irvine is for the next tier up.
As the late Cain said in this old “home on the range” show… Newport is for the parents who eat white bread, Irvine “over that hill” is for their kids who eat whole wheat bread.
I guess he meant that Westminster, Costa Mesa, Santa Ana, Garden Grove and Tustin are for their hired help. 😉
Hey.. I wouldn’t go around with the ethnic stuff… not nice.
Irvine is nice. I can call City Hall and they return my calls. My kids go to nice schools, I can leave my garage door opened all day long. I don’t need an alarm system, a gun nor bars on my windows. And I get a nice ocean breeze.
I kind of like it here.
Most people in my neighborhood are socioeconomically homogeneous and culturally heterogeneous. We got your basic mainland haoles, japanee, chinee, korean, the odd paniolo, farsi, indians… I like it.
And, why would I be scared? I’ve owned my house for 20 years. Worst that could happen is that I decide to sell at 300 sq/foot for a house that we rebuilt brand new seven years ago…. That’ll bust the comps and I can move to Hawai’i.
Aloha… book ’em Dano… murdered the Comps.
Besides, what’s with the hype deal? For someone who goes by “Peace out” you sure do quite a bit of ad hominem attack…
Oh. the Irvine Co. does handle the land. They are the ones that control how much is doled out and thus control the price. Since they’re in no hurry to unload it, this means that the price is always higher than in surrounding cities with more land to give…..
Hmmm… well, maybe no longer, but I wouldn’t want to invest in a Santa Ana corner lot just yet.
I make enough to afford a home. I can comfortably afford the current prices but choose not to. I don’t have a sense of entitlement. I simply can’t justify putting so much money to “own” a house. I would *like* to own as my wife and I want to customize our place but for the time being, we are content renting.
I think you mistakingly think that people want prices to fall so that they can afford to live in the area. I personally know many people who have the money but just don’t find the current prices meanginful.
I have friends who bought houses last year and I can buy their houses today AND get 2 new BMWs. Think about that…no one wants that. Obviously, one can’t time the market but I will look at the data in front of me and hopefully, make the best decision with the data present.
28 Meadowgrass is in my neighborhood so I felt the need to comment. THey put their house on the market so they could get into a bigger house (their family is growing). They priced it competitively, so it would sell fast. Did you know that the same model on the corner of our street (41 Redhawk) sold for $730,000… 3 weeks before, and 23 (I think) Shearwater- same model- sold for $721,000 a week after the Redhawk property (you can check). The owners of 28 Meadowgrass were so surprised! Their house was put on the MLS on a Friday afternoon, and by Saturday evening they had 3 offers. Then on Sunday- they received another 2 offers. 5 offers within a span of 2 days…and NONE of these offers were with creative financing…they all came with EXCELLENT credit scores and 20% down! I was surprised, since the media makes it seem like such a down market.
These single story homes (Poplar model) in Woodbridge are pretty popular…and go pretty fast (if it is half decent inside).
The 52 Shearwater property is not the same model. Its about 100 square feet smaller and layout is a little different. But even at its current asking price of $740 K, they got and accepted an offer in less than a month.
Did you take a look at 30 Bluejay? It is also a single story 1500 square foot house asking $829 K !!! They are in Backup Offers, so apparently they got an offer they liked, and they were on the market for less than a month I think.
Point Being…SINGLE STORY HOMES are highly sought after in Woodbridge. And there are still alot of buyers out there willing to buy now and do not need a subprime loan to do it.
While Curious could have phrased his comment in a less condescending manner, I don’t think he was disparaging IrvineRenter’s wife.
He was simply pointing out that there are plenty of people who want to buy soon — the part about IrvineRenter’s wife was in reference to this post by IrvineRenter in the forums:
“I like walking through models and open houses because my wife and I can talk about what we like and don’t like in a future house we might want. She tends to be an emotional buyer, so I need to keep my personal inventory of things I know she doesn’t like to help her take off the rose colored glasses when it comes time to buy.”
So don’t act like the wife comment came out of nowhere. If you post on a blog about what your wife likes, it’s fair game to use it to make a point.
I check out many sites a day. Each has a different flavor for pent up demand. I’m not going to guess what Curious’ definition of pent up demand. From what I understand from other sites, I’ve understood it to mean demand that is willing and able to purchase a house, but is unwilling to even make a bid due to prices.
If you think econ 101 and a simple Supply and Demand curve, I take it to mean all the buyers willing to buy at a price less than the current price. The result of this definition… duh! Of course as you move price farther out, the quantity of individuals who deman d a home will increase. To mix sayings, my 2 cents may not get you much mileage.
If the market is as good as you say, why are they selling for a loss? In a strong market, wouldn’t competitive pricing still include a profit?
If I want to talk about my wife, that is my business. That does not open it up the subject of my wife or family to comments from others. Don’t test my tolerance on this issue: I don’t have any.
Frankly, I’d be a *quite* an unhappy offeror if my neighbors were blabbing my credit score/range around the neighborhood. Much less, how would the buyers know about loan terms unless there was a dual agent relationship involved? The above comment leaves me very, very confused, and very, very concerned about blabbing realtors(TM) and sellers.
There is a big difference between desire and demand. I “desire” to live on the Ocean in Laguna Beach. But my down payment and the bank only allow me to “demand” a $500,000 house where I can actually make the monthly payment. Exotic loans allowed people to turn “desire” into “demand”. That “demand” is now gone. Welcome back to the real world.
Any comments on this? Does anyone think that commericial real estate is overvalued in Irvine? And if so, what might that mean for the future? (ex. rents? stores at the local mall, etc)
Commercial debt reaches record $3 trillion in Q1
http://blogs.ocregister.com/mortgage/archives/2007/06/commercial_debt_reaches_record.html
I wonder what kind of place the owners of 28 Meadowgrass could have rented for the amount of money they will lose after owning their place for a little over 2 years.
Wasn’t their expanding family a foreseeable event? Yet they chose to buy near the height of the bubble only to sell later at a loss.
Their family may be expanding, but their wallets certainly aren’t!
Curious,
In addition to the point of this blog as already stated by another, you shouldn’t be afraid to examine any evidence that is brought before you. So instead of asking for a fair representation of the overall market, I encourage you to ponder the stark reality that is built into each of the properties under scrutiny. Is somebody making this stuff up? No. That’s what’s so scary.
Now if IrvineRenter puts up a property that is fictional or is not accurately represented, I think that would be a fair challenge, but it is still true that most readers of this blog are watching the edge of the tidal wave so to speak (which at the moment is just beginning to crest). I’m waiting til it gets closer to shore. Might be a tsunami then.
I must repeat myself over and over again I would love for someone who is bullish on RE to back up their reasoning with facts. I posted this above and yet not a single response from the bulls.
“It would be interesting to actually read a well thought out and detailed reason as to why housing will go up. However you don’t. All we ever read from the bulls are quick snips with no logic. To me they sound very desperate. By coming here they feel better thinking that they can make fun of the bitter renters.
By the way some of us are owners and we agree that prices are down and are going to go down further. But we were smart and didn’t over extend ourselves.
Good luck riding this market out as the foreclosures keep increasing it could get rough.”
So you complain that all we do is fight you because you don’t agree with us then fine PROVE us otherwise. I am open to discussion but your low blow insults make you look like desperate, bitter homeowners who need to vent the frustrations of how the housing market isn’t performing to your kool aid drinking standards of Gary Watts and now your realize you are upside down. So if you want an intelligent coversation then at least try to have a discussion and not make useless quips that provide no value.
By the way did you live here in the 90s? If you did then I suggest you search the Register’s archives for John Burns to see what he said then and what he is saying now. He makes Walter Hahn look like a useless waste of space.
I suspect this commenter is a realtor. Did you notice the three exclamation points? Only realtors write that way.
The whole post seems suspect to me. How do they know, “and NONE of these offers were with creative financing…they all came with EXCELLENT credit scores and 20% down!”? And what are the chances that a property gets five offers with 20% down? Sorry, but this sounds like a big fat lie to me. And lastly, have you noticed that re agents are always blaming the “media” for the down market, as if it isn’t reality. “I was surprised, since the media makes it seem like such a down market.” Do the agents get told in their weekly or monthly meetings to say that housing prices are not falling, but it is just the media making a big deal out of nothing? I suspect so. Why do re agents think we are stupid and can’t recognize the obvious?
Tonye,
Why the whole realtor selling pitch buddy? Irivne has a nice city hall, your house has a nice garage etc. etc. So tell me something new. Tell me why the prices should not go down from where they are with inventories piling up? Unless you are smarter than a lot of top market predictors in today’s world who are forecasting a long way before the market hits bottom, you are what you sound like i.e. a needy realtor. None of your arguments have the technical reasoning or substantive matter to defeat current market predictions. But your arguments do have the selling pitch of a budding realtor. Besides if you are so satisfied and unconcerned, why are you here, I guess you should be seeing your house price double again in two years?
Besides there is no need to go holier than thou on my comment about the herd mentality with some ethnic groups. Nobody is disrespecting them – it is merely a statement of fact – underlining market reality.
PH
Whoah dude, that the biggest pile of crap I’ve read in this blog so far.
I’m not a realtor. Show me the money before your accuse me.
And, oh I’m really, really sorry to have somehow offended you.
So this blog is limited to only people who are happy that property values are dropping or people who feel like they have the right to live in Irvine and that God must drop the real estate prices so they can buy in?
Hogwash.
I thought this blog was really a rant on speculators. Something I believe is really proper.
I’m a very long term homeowner, with plenty of equity, who can not believe the run up in prices in the last two years and who thinks that bubbles are ultimately bad for everyone.
Homes should not be traded as communities, after all only home mortgages are tax deductible, not your margin interest.
Realize too that long term homeowners are locked into property when bubbles outstrip income growth. The “up market” move becomes way too expensive. So, either I move out of Irvine or I stay put.
In fact, if property values dropped across the board, I would be able to move to the top of the hill with a view with minimal impact.
So, you see, bubbles affect everyone negatively but speculators.
Besides, dude, before you rant, go read my other posts. I have stated that prices in TRidge should drop by 50% and TR by 30%.
Man, ad hominem attacks non stop.
Stop and read before you post, OK?
And, yeah, as a matter of fact, you do sound racist to me. You don’t have to be a haole to be racist. Some of the most virulent racists I’ve met were so called minorities in this country.