Today’s featured property is one of many floating like flotsam the foreclosure pipeline.
Irvine Home Address … 76 FANLIGHT Irvine, CA 92620
Resale Home Price …… $1,150,000
{book1}
Turn on your heartlight
Let it shine wherever you go
Let it make a happy glow
For all the world to see
Turn on your heartlight
In the middle of a young boy’s dream
Don’t wake up too soon
Gonna take a ride across the moon
You and me
He’s lookin’ for a home
Cause everyone needs a place
A home’s the most excellent place of all
Heartlight — Neil Diamond
The lyrics to this song appeal to me on many levels. Wishful thinking and kool aid intoxication resonates in the boyhood reverie of days of boundless abundance when prices were shooting to the moon because we are running out of land, because everyone needs a place, and because Orange County is the most excellent place of all….
Don’t wake me up too soon….
If we could only recapture that moment. Have you ever awoke from a fantastic dream and wished you could quickly fall back asleep and pick up where you left off? Isn’t all of Orange County hoping they will wake up one day and realize it was all a bad dream and prices really haven’t gone down?
Irvine’s Auction Market
The failure of the Great Housing Bubble will ultimately be recorded on the auction block. Amend, extend, pretend cannot continue forever; lenders will foreclose and boot out the money renters who occupy the lender’s property. I recently heard Christopher Thornberg quip, “A rolling loan gathers no loss.” Lenders will modify who they can, short sale some for expediency, and foreclose on the rest — the rest being a plethora of properties.
I am focusing more attention on the auction market in preparation for an upcoming in-depth look here on the blog.
Today’s featured property is scheduled for auction February 4, and a number of high end homes clog the pipeline (I am defining high-end as Irvine over $800,000) as you can see from the list below:
Fifty-four properties over $800,000 are scheduled for auction over the next few months and another 39 are in preforeclosure. No catastrophic supply problem, but this does not include the shadow inventory of those who have stopped making payments but the lenders have not served with a Notice of Default. When the NODs begin in earnest, they will show up here in the auction market. The over $800,000 market will become more active because borrowers in these price ranges have few refinance options, and they are not eligible for loan modification programs. Borrowers with debts over the $729,000 conforming limit are basically screwed.
$1,150,000 Approved Short Sale
The bank doesn’t want to buy this property at auction. It was in escrow, but fell out, so the lender is praying someone will pony up $1,150,000 before they have to take their chances at auction. There have only been two auction prices over $1,150,000 in the last 6 months.
Trustee Sale Discount
Cash is king. If the lender does not find a buyer at $1,150,000, this property will probably go to auction on February 4 (At this point, they have given up on the borrower, so why would they postpone it further?)
Often properties go at a significant discount in the auction market as compared to the resale market where financing abounds. Fifteen percent, even twenty percent or more can be saved; however, for what are obvious reasons, desirable properties listed on the MLS with few unknowns like today’s featured properties get discounted the least. I haven’t researched the comps to have an opinion on the auction value of this property, although a cursory glance suggests it may sell between $1,050,000 and $1,100,000, unless the lender bids it up to $1,150,000 and takes the property.
If this sells at auction for $1,050,000 it will represent nearly a 30% drop from the original purchase price of $1,464,500 back in 2006. Is 30% off the bottom for Irvine’s high end? I don’t know, but it is certainly closer to the bottom than to the top.
Irvine Home Address … 76 FANLIGHT Irvine, CA 92620
Resale Home Price … $1,150,000
Income Requirement ……. $245,492
Downpayment Needed … $230,000
20% Down Conventional
Home Purchase Price … $1,464,500
Home Purchase Date …. 9/12/2006
Net Gain (Loss) ………. $(383,500)
Percent Change ………. -21.5%
Annual Appreciation … -6.8%
Mortgage Interest Rate ………. 5.27%
Monthly Mortgage Payment … $5,092
Monthly Cash Outlays ………… $7,130
Monthly Cost of Ownership … $5,300
Property Details for 76 FANLIGHT Irvine, CA 92620
Beds 5
Baths 4 baths
Home Size 3,531 sq ft
($326 / sq ft)
Lot Size 5,494 sq ft
Year Built 2006
Days on Market 112
Listing Updated 1/14/2010
MLS Number S590545
Property Type Single Family, Residential
Community Woodbury
Tract Wdmf
According to the listing agent, this listing may be a pre-foreclosure or short sale.
JUST FELL OUT OF ESCROW. NOW APPROVED AT $1,150,000!!! Absolutely gorgeous 5 bedroom, 4 bath home in prestigeous neighborhood in Woodbury at an amazing price! Rare, premium corner lot! Granite counters, huge tumbled stone shower in master bath plus soaking tub, custom outdoor BBQ kitchen, 2 bonus rooms,and lots more upgrades! This home is priced to move fast! Please see private remarks for restricted viewing hours.
prestigeous?
That price is so good it warrants four exclamations points — not three — no, three exclamation points does not convey the incredible excitement that erupts from every buyer’s bones when they see $1,150,000!!!! I need a cold shower….
ET bought a home on here earth, and he has recently been spotted lightening up and enjoying earthly pleasures — his finger is in high demand.
If you want to investigate bidding on today’s featured property or properties like it, contact us at sales@idealhomebrokers.com. It is up for auction on February 4.
I hope you have enjoyed this week, and thank you for reading the Irvine Housing Blog: astutely observing
the Irvine home market and combating California Kool-Aid since
September 2006.
Have a great weekend,
Irvine Renter
Come back again
I want you to stay next time
Cause sometimes the world ain’t kind
When people get lost like you and me
I just made a friend
Heartlight — Neil Diamond
The lender will postpone, not because there is some chance of the borrower becoming current or because another short sale is lined up, but because of GAAP for banks, it is better to postpone losses rather than realize them.
If the property in involved in a trial loan mod, the bank may not foreclose. The bank must cancel the NTS if the property is in trial loan mod and the NOD recorded one year ago.
IR, if by chance this goes to auction; what is the chance that someone will snatch it up for 30% off?
With mark-to-fantasy accounting, banks are in no hurry for a clearance sale, IMHO.
If it does go to auction, it will go for less than the approved short sale price. The issue right now is all the postponements due to pretending with loan modifications.
I have to admit that the diversion being deployed here under the pretense of saving debtors is pretty damn slick. Slow the foreclosure pipeline, give yourself time to inflate away all your debts, and then leave citizens holding the bag of worthless money.
We are going to see massive inflation in this country the second that the job numbers start to improve and the government is going to play it off as a great sign that employers are hiring again and increasing prices are a sign of an improving job market. The sheep will be ecstatic.
“The sheep will be ecstatic.”
The irony is some will have a reason. If they bought a home in 2008 before all the pumping by the gov and got a 30 year fixed mortgage, they get to pay it back with worthless dollars.
I have been holding off buying, but that scenario plays in the back of my mind and makes me wonder if I am doing the right thing.
It crosses my mind daily as well. I have been saving a down payment for about 4 years now and the prospect of inflation is a serious concern when my downpayment is just sitting in a money market earning 1.5% each month. My dilemma is unloading dollars before inflation goes through the roof. I am not going to buy gold as that is just another bubble being whipped up by people who bought before the economy tanked. I keep a close eye on unemployment and these makework job programs that the government uses to inject its newly counterfeited money into circulation. For now at least, it would appear that most of the money is staying at the banks and being slushed around on wall street where Joe six pack can’t get to it. But once the media starts reporting large scale hiring by companies – I will be looking for an exit.
There’s a scenario where the jobs may not appear. Ever. Think of it this way. There is a huge bubble of under and unemployed people, many with degrees and experience, waiting for the economy to rebound off some new exciting technology or growth. But where is that technology going to come from? Green jobs? Biotech? IT? No, actually the prediction for the best growth industries in the future is in healthcare services…home health, physical therapy etc all of which will most likely have to take large pay cuts because many are paid by government programs which are saddled with huge unfunded libilities in the future. Here’s the rub though, we could have commodity inflation but no wage inflation.
AZDavidPhx,
Do you know if this place really exist?
http://www.heartattackgrill.com/
Feel sorry for you but same dilemma here.
I have more than $1 million CD with rates 1.5% too used enjoy 5.5% CD rates. But it’s dangerous to have too much cash in bank for two reasons: dollar devaluation and IRS may chase you.
IMHO, Gold still a good place to put your money, my gold fund up more than 50% for last 6 months but it will go 10% higher in the short term. Stock stabilization now and bound to a 20% correction in two months.
IMHO, buy some short sell is not a bad idea now but if you can wait for 6-12 more months it will even better.
Anyway, after long waiting for bargain, we are almost there.
But it’s just not as much as we were thinking before, because the debts already transferred to our children and tax payers.
Big Eater –
Yes, it does (I have never been though)
1.5% MM account is likely the riskiest place to have your money.
The banks are buying treasuries with the money. The gov/t is spending that money subsidizing. The inflation is here right now, don’t kid yourself.
Inflation can come in the form of sustaining prices when they should be falling.
Gold is nowhere near mania status. People chatter about it, but as acknowledged by your comment, the worry tells me we are far from delusion.
In addition to gov/t money magic, take into account all the inflation we have been exporting for years. This compounds the problem. The SEVERITY of this problem has been downplayed. We are in quite the predicament. We all (globally)know what our gov/t is doing. We all (globally) are looking for our exit strategy due to poor reputation of our economy/currency. The writing is on the wall. Waiting too long may prove to be a mistake.
Read about what happens to family savings during periods of high inflation. It disappears. People who own things of value weather the storm. People with cash get creamed. I don’t know how bad it will get, but I do know it doesn’t look good. You know how big this RE boom was, you know the bandaid/ducttape solutions being implemented, and you know the repercussions/fallout – but continue to bet on a guaranteed loser. What is your exit strategy?
The threat of inflation is why I’m holding off on accelerating my amortization any more. I already have a 15 year fixed at a low interest rate. I could easily put another $200 or more per month towards the principle. But if inflation takes off over the next decade, that won’t be a good use of today’s more valuable money. OTOH, if I just save the $200/month in my 1.3% money market, I can still lose to inflation, and get an even lower return on that cash. But I work in manufacturing, so I do feel the urge to keep that money liquid for a “rainy day” (ie. job loss). If that happened, I’d almost certainly have to sell the house, and I’d get all my equity back at that point anyway. Maybe I should crank up the principle payments after all?
I agree – I am keeping it liquid for the sake of security. I plan on using most of it as a down payment on a house when the next leg down in prices finishes. I have no intention of holding any dollars when inflation starts going through the roof. I don’t care about buying in a declining market but the places I am looking at still have a 100K haircut on the way. If they drop 10 to 20K from there – whatever, I will still have equity and an inflation hedge.
The plan I am hoping to execute as well.
Price inflation does equal wage inflation.
Doggone it. I meant to say price inflation does NOT equal wage inflation. In other words, just because stuff will cost more does not mean you or anybody else will be making more money.
Politely butting in:
I’ve heard of the place but have never been there..
Phoenix City Grill is outstanding.
http://www.phoenixcitygrille.com
The Beef Pot Roast with bourbon gravy is exceptional and they serve a whiskey croissant bread pudding that is out-of-this-world.
We’re in a similar situation with our 401Ks and CDs.
Our 401K have been in bond funds since 1/08 so we’re above the sheep that rode the rollescoaster but we did miss the 30% bounce (which I think will be a dead cat bounce).
Our long term CDs were paying 5++% but now they’re coming due and we’re reinvesting them at 6 month terms but the returns are a joke. Even at the Credit Union (we don’t do “banks” anymore).
So we’re looking at someplace to place our money but it seems like ALL global currencies are in the same boat. Inflation will hit _every_ one.
Gold and oil are priced accordingly so the upside there sucks.
Oddly, buying investment real estate at auction would make the most sense, I think. But our Wall Street Masters made sure we couldn’t invest in Real Estate with our 401Ks….
I have some cash in an old 401K that I could turn into an IRA, which would really free my investment model there, but the Gov treats IRAs very differently from 401Ks, again to make Wall Street happy.
I dunno, but the deck is loaded. We’re all sheep.
You make an interesting point in regards to 401k’s. If the rules were changed such that people could turn their 401k into real estate with no taxes and no penalty another bubble could begin.
“because of GAAP for banks”
What does that mean? Could you please explain further?
The gov changed the rules. Instead of showing on the books what the bank’s assets are worth in the market, they get to record them at what the bank hopes they are worth.
http://www.crackthecode.us/images/Irvine2011_GetReady.jpg
Prime Jumbo RMBS Delinquencies Swell to 9.2%:
http://www.crackthecode.us/images/horror.jpg
Delinquency of more than 60 days among prime jumbo residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) nearly tripled to 9.2% in December 2009, from 3.2% at the end of 2008, according to Fitch Ratings.
http://www.crackthecode.us/images/falling_knife.gif
The ‘06-’07 prime jumbo RMBS vintages alone rose to a combined 12.7% delinquency rate, Fitch notes, from 4.3% a year earlier:
Defaults in non-private-label securitizations of jumbo loans for all years is on the rise, inching toward 7% as of October 2009, much in line with other collateral types, according to Amherst Securities Group.
California and Florida spearheaded the rising delinquencies seen by Fitch, jumping to 10.8% and 16%, respectively, from 3.5% and 7.3% a year earlier. California represents 44% of the $388bn prime jumbo RMBS market, and Florida represents 6%.
Of the prime jumbo borrowers that are still current on payments, more than one-third are also underwater on their mortgages, owing more than the home is worth, Fitch said.
They don’t even mention all of the underwater knife catchers from 2008 who are coming up on their 2 year house maturity.
I wonder how many of those loans have since gone south….
AZ, let me revisit your prediction in 1 1/2 years. I can wait until 2015 but I won’t mind a crash earlier than that 🙂
I think 2011 is going to peak foreclosures for Irvine – but how long the banks take to resell them is anyones guess. If they can keep playing the current charade of pretend book-keeping then it could stretch for a long time.
I pulled up the location on google maps, and it still amazes me to see just how much development has occurred in the last 20 years. I first came to Irvine in 1990 and it was much different than it is now. I guess it’s just natural that so much development has occurred; there’s nowhere to build in LA and the only place left is Southern Orange County. My only question is where did all these people live before?
There have been a few cases of name calling this past week; I don’t think anyone’s trying to call bottom as if it’s some game where the correct answer wins a prize. This blog is an excellent source of information that for the most part presents facts about the current market. Has Irvine hit a bottom? Are Irvine prices going to hold up in the long run? I don’t know and I don’t really care, all I know is that current prices are still well more than I can afford. Sure my monthly income will qualify me for an above average home in Irvine, but I’m just not comfortable putting a huge portion of my income toward housing. Ever. If that means I’m priced out of Irvine for good, then so be it. I’m not bitter about it; it’s my money and I get to choose how to spend it, and allocating a big chunk to housing isn’t going to make me comfortable.
This is 100% not the bottom.
Well said, I agree with this attitude 100%. If it doesn’t make sense, why bother. You need to feel comfortable with your purchase downpayment, emergency cash cushion, and monthly obligations. Otherwise stay out, don’t become a home debtor and play the appreciation game.
Some folks think it’s a bottom, others don’t.
Rates can’t stay low forever. However, you can’t say for certain with this govt.
Can’t relax mark-to-market accounting forever. Again, you can’t say for certain with this govt.
Fed finish buying MBS in 2 months? Again…with this govt and Benny boy in charge?
This blog is not your magic wand.
There is only one problem: prices are still way too high. And jobs are not there yet. And rates can only go up. Otherwise, we are perfectly positioned for a bottom.
Where did they come from? Where did they live before?
Well, in South County many came from older parts of OC namely Santa Ana, Orange, Buena Park, Garden Grove and Fullerton having sold their homes there to first timers, immigrants and illegals.
Back in the day, Anaheim and Fullerton were the “Irvines” of OC – over the course of time, due to degradation of local schools and crime, many long-time residents and native Californians have moved out to be replaced by non-english speakers.
obviously, other residents of South OC came from other States. In my experience, these people came from the Pacific Northwest, Colorado, NY, NJ and to a lesser extent, Idaho.
Yes.. we moved to Irvine 23 years ago.
I remember the old Bonita Canyon Rd from McArthur to Campus. It was a great ride when the dump was closed, a slow ride when the dump was open.
And UCI had not yet (over)built their East Side.
Traffic.. Oy Vey… traffic…
Red Lights, Jesus, red lights…
I miss the aroma of orange flowers that used to come up to TR all the way from the other side of the 405.
Anony, GAAP stands for Generally Accepted Accounting Principles
Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) is the americanized term used to refer to the standard framework of guidelines for financial accounting used in any given jurisdiction which are generally known as Accounting Standards. GAAP includes the standards, conventions, and rules accountants follow in recording and summarizing transactions, and in the preparation of financial statements.
But the problem the banks have is with Mark-to market accounting, which is suppose to be used under GAAP:
Anon – DA’s answer if great and there is a bit more. GAAP for banks counts mortgage payments as income, even if they are not paid. Yup, that’s right. Your business enters unpaid amounts billed and owed as accounts receivable, but banks enter them as income and then subtract those amounts when the loan is closed.
When the bank realizes losses, it must increase it’s capital reserves by the same amount it leveraged those reserves in the first place. If the bank does not have those reserves or does not have access to them, they are considered to be insolvent. If banks foreclose in a timely manner, they will be considered insolvent. I say considered, because they are insolvent, but our fractional reserve banking system encourages and enables banks to operate on an insolvent basis.
Just to clarify. Only the interest is counted as income, not the full mortgage payment, right?
Sorry, don’t remember how the principal is entered, but I am thinking it is similarly entered as received when in truth, it has not been.
Thanks Dark Avenger and awgee!
I remember standing in long lines to see ET at the only movie theatre in the area. The Woodbridge theatre back when it had only one screen.
Now this 1.1 mil house has a beautiful kitchen.
Yes, with this property, the $1.1 million valuation is not quite so ridiculous as the one from a few days ago. I wish the pictures were better though.
Was the irony of “boundless abundance … because we are running out of land” intended?
All you have to do is explain where the next generation of house buyers is going to come up with that same 200K down payment.
This is what I like about these ‘look at the down payments!’ arguments. I have to admit that when I first began blogging here I never believed that the government would step in when everything came crashing down. I believed that the game would be over when 20% down for first time buyers became the rule again.
So, at first I was shocked by these down payments that were being recorded…. Until I thought about what was actually going on and realized that the government just came in and picked up where private subprime lenders had left off.
The question that people like DBH and irvine_home_owner don’t like to talk about is where these 200K down payments are coming from. Are these large down payments the result of a prudent 10 year savings plan? Or are they just the result the sale of some asset like maybe a condo they bought in 1995 that is 100K down from peak but still 200K over original purchase price.
This is your dilemma, DBH. Can the government continue to goose the low end of the market in order to keep the music playing in higher demand areas like Irvine?
This is the trillion dollar question that we are going to find out.
The market functions similarly to a pyramid scheme – when the bottom end falls out, the upper layers follow.
You may choose to ignore this, but facts do not change simply because they are ignored.
If you have another explanation as to where these 200K down payments are coming from, I’d love to hear it as well as how these downpayments shall also be achieved by future buyers.
http://activerain.com/blogsview/412696/space-ship-home-for-sale-at-auction-march-15th-as-seen-on-hgtv-
That’s in Chattanooga TN on Signal Mountain (or half way up the hair-pin turning road). It changes hands fairly frequently…
Hi, you mentioned that these were going up for auction. I was wondering if this was a public auction and if there were a chance there were lower end properties (far far lower… like in my price range) available?
Thanks
Phayen, I did a search for properties with a published bid of 300k-800k for Irvine that have the auction scheduled between now and March 31 (of course, many will be postponed), Aad 352 properties came up.
I’ll try to narrow it down so that I can post a list that doesn’t take up the 5 pages.
Can you reconfirm your number, according to my search there are only 326 homes in irvine that at either pre foreclosure, foreclosed or REO and my data is reliable…
Not sure how else to confirm it (feel free to tell me how). Foreclosureradar is the only thing I check. Here is what comes up using the paramaters I showed above
[IMG]http://i50.tinypic.com/2ykxrix.jpg[/IMG]
Inserting pic didn’t work so well. Here is direct link:
http://i50.tinypic.com/2ykxrix.jpg
Good God! It really looks bad when you see it on a map like that.
Income Requirement ……. $245,492
Downpayment Needed … $230,000
20% Down Conventional
just how many $1M plus houses are there in inland irvine? fewer than the number of families with $250k incomes who want to live there?
personally, with that income, I would want to live closer to the beach!
Here is a real life scenario: Our household is currently making ~$250k per year and we have $200k savings, growing by about $5k a month. So we could probably buy a house in Irvine. However, when we moved here in 2007 a 3BR house in Irvine or Laguna Niguel was ~$650k. We did not buy and decided to rent (very nice apartment, 2BR, $2k a month), expecting that these prices would come down by 30% or so to maybe $400k. Well, they are still at $550k or $600k. I am not sure who is buying but someone must be because prices are holding up. I am not willing to pay that amount of money for a small 3BR in OC. We have decided to wait for 2 years until my company transfers me to another state where we will buy a mansion for $350k, hopefully all cash by then. I just don’t feel like supporting these ridiculous prices with my hard earned savings…OC is nice, but not work that much. I wonder how many more people like me/us are out there?
Marc,
Your situation is similar to mine. I am renting and have a large downpayment to buy when the time is right. You’re right that prices have not went down that much in the desirable areas. I am giving it a few more years (3 to 5) in Socal until I make my move…either buy a place here or move to Texas.
No matter what, I don’t see prices in Socal rising in the next 5 years. So renting cheap and socking away money seems like the right thing to do in the mean time. If prices don’t budge here, I’m taking myself and my big pile of money and will pay cash for a nice place in Texas. The weather sucks compared to OC, but having a house paid off when you are 40 and the ability to retire much earlier is worth something also.
The government has been doing a great job of putting a floor under prices (at the expense of future generations and responsible people). I honestly don’t know how long this charade can keep going. My guess is that somewhere down the line…no amount of cooking the books, lying, cheating, stealing will overturn underlying fundamentals. Buckle your seatbelt, the next few years will be fun to watch!
So over 3 years you just pissed away nearly 75k on rent. It seems to me that you would’ve came out ahead by buying because you would had more space and personalization in a SFH versus apartment over the last three years. Plus a decent tax write-off to boot.
Tacoshark. Marc made the right call by not buying. He would have lost 50K to 100K in equity and who knows how much more in the near future.
Isn’t paying mortgage interest, property taxes, HOA, insurance, Mello Roos if applicable, maintenace akin to pissing away rent…just at a much higher rate. You never see one penny of that again.
I think he’s making the right call by waiting. He’s saving money by renting, not exposing himself to further declines and is extremely mobile if he wants to move. To each their own.
Just the 6% commission on that 600k house is 36,000$. 6% interest on a 600k loan for 3 years is another 108,000$. 10% depreciation on that 600k house: 60,000$. Add in taxes, HOA, maintenance. I’m guessing 30,000 to 60,000$ over 3 years.
Let’s see I’m up to 264,000$ in money pissed away buying a house already. Oh and he wouldn’t be able to easily transfer with an underwater mortgage.
Now you show me how “personalization” (what’s that exactly? HOA disallows you from much personalization) is worth an extra 200k$.
You can buy monogrammed boxer shorts with the money that you save for “personalization.”
I never cease to be amazed at the foolish choices people make to avoid paying taxes. Signing away a fortune to an overseas banker, risking prison to hide income, and now, I suppose, real estate investment in a personal dwelling is up there, too.
IR,
A very good teaching to understand blogging today. Gives reader a better understanding on what happened, where were at and astute observation on where we might be going.
For a table, how much loss is the bank willing to go on the note? Please add a column for the default amount to the winning bid table. That will give an indication what the banks are willing to declare as a loss.
The banks may be willing to buy their own note to keep the loss off the books or to delay declaring an accurate amount of the loss. Are note holders allowed to create a bidding war by bidders that are actually agents for the note holder/bank?
3 cheers to AZDavePhz on the deliquency rate and to awgee for the explaination on hiding loss via GAAP
Could any one tell me how to go and buy these acution homes?
Anyone can get Cashier’s Checks and attend the public auctions. If you subscribe to Foreclosure Radar, the address of the auction site is given along with the date and other information.
Most people don’t try to buy at auction because they don’t have time to research the properties — they often are not on the MLS — and those that go to auctions are often disappointed by a high bank bid or a postponement.
Re: Your list of high-end Irvine auction properties: What is going on on Tapestry? Three nearly contiguous houses (147, 148, 152) are on that list. I’ll have to drive over there and see if the hillside collapsed on them.
Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. “Generally” great.
There are pages and pages of foreclosure announcements in the newspapers’ legal notices, for those who read only online and have not picked a paper in a while. Pick one up, and be shocked like I was.
Yup, all you need to know about this house is right there in the tax rolls:
Land $436,659
Additions $745,341
Does anybody really think that a 5,494 Sq. Ft. corner lot in Irvine is worth that much? ($80/sq ft)
Does anybody actually think that it would cost $745,341 to replace that house? ($211/sq ft)
You tell me where these large downs come from. You’re the one who says they are from equity sales and I beg to differ.
Don’t assume things unless you know for sure. I think the quick rebuys from previous HELOCs/equity are over… we are seeing hard cash transactions sourced from I don’t know where. It’s not that I don’t like to talk about it… I just don’t agree with where you think the funds are coming from.
Nice try.
@AZDave:
You tell me where these large downs come from. You’re the one who says they are from equity sales and I beg to differ.
Don’t assume things unless you know for sure. I think the quick rebuys from previous HELOCs/equity are over… we are seeing hard cash transactions sourced from I don’t know where. It’s not that I don’t like to talk about it… I just don’t agree with where you think the funds are coming from.
Before I brought up that data, you were talking about how irresponsible borrowers in Irvine were because they were doing 0 or low down loans. When I illuminated the fact that the actual percentage of down payments were 40%… that’s where you had to go dig for some other theory.
This is important because what that translates to is that people who are buying now have a buffer of a 40% price drop before they are upside down on their loan (barring HELOCs and refis obv). Do you think Irvine is going to drop another 40% from here?
Also… you may want to examine some of these auctions. I’ve followed many of the QH ones and from what I’ve seen, the winning bid is still above the 2003/04 original sales price. I doubt we are going to see 1999 in Irvine Mr. Phoenix.