Author Archives: zovall

Ashton Green – Another Turtle Ridge Flip Gone Bad – UPDATE #3

Originally posted on September 30, 2006

Address: 235 Danbook, Irvine, CA 92603 (Turtle Ridge)
Plan: 1155 sq ft – 2/2.5
MLS: P537174 DOM: 18
Sale History: 04/21/2006: $625,000
Current Price: $619,000

The interesting thing here is that they listed it for less than what they purchased it only 5 months ago! They’ll have to go lower if they want it to move. This plan 2 has PLENTLY of direct competition:

  • 205 Coral Rose – Plan 4 – 1181 sq ft – $619,000 – 57 DOM
  • 121 Jadestone – Plan 4 – 1181 sq ft – $619,000 – 3 DOM
  • 250 Coral Rose – Plan 2 – 1155 sq ft – $619,000 – 80 DOM (~125 DOM Before)
  • 266 Coral Rose – Plan 2 – 1155 sq ft – $625,000 – 183 DOM
  • 127 Jadestone – Plan 4 – 1181 sq ft – $625,000 – 123 DOM (~38 DOM Before)
  • 207 Danbrook – Plan 3 – 1185 sq ft – $639,000 – 44 DOM (~160 DOM Before)

Factoring in an estimated 6% to be paid out in commissions, the owner will be in the hole for at least $43,000. OUCH!

UPDATE #1 – October 31, 2006

I just noticed that the price on this home was reduced on 10/24 to $612,500. I don’t know if the lower price will bring in (m)any offers considering the competition has also lowered their prices (notice that some have played the relist game):

  • 205 Coral Rose – Plan 4 – 1181 sq ft – $599,000 – 88 DOM
  • 121 Jadestone – Plan 4 – 1181 sq ft – $609,000 – 34 DOM
  • 250 Coral Rose – Plan 2 – 1155 sq ft – $619,000 – 111 DOM (~125 DOM Before)
  • 266 Coral Rose – Plan 2 – 1155 sq ft – $615,000 – 29 DOM (~188 DOM Before)
  • 127 Jadestone – Plan 4 – 1181 sq ft – $615,000 – 25 DOM (~170 DOM Before)
  • 207 Danbrook – Plan 3 – 1185 sq ft – SALE PENDING $639,000 SOLD at $610,000 – 56 DOM (~160 DOM Before)

How low could these go? Many of these sellers have a lot of wiggle room since their homes appreciated so much since they’ve bought. But our featured flipper at 235 Danbrook unfortunately does not have that luxury. If they sell at the current asking price, their loss including 6% in selling costs will be almost $50,000!

UPDATE #2 – November 15, 2006

We’ve got another price reduction on this home. On 11/13 the price was reduced to $599,000. The pricing by the competition is still the same as the last update. After 6% in selling costs, a sale at $599,000 will cause the flippers to lose almost $62,000! RiDiCuLouS!

UPDATE #3 – August 14, 2007

Well, 235 Danbrook finally sold about 8 months later on 5/21/2007 for $604,000. The loss was about $57,000 (assuming 6% in selling costs).

Here’s what else is going on in the tract:

  • 110 Jadestone – Plan 4 – 1200 sq ft – $578,000 – 2 DOM
  • 239 Coral Rose – Plan 3 – 1181 sq ft – $580,000 – 73 DOM
  • 240 Coral Rose – Plan 4 – 1181 sq ft – $588,000 – 29 DOM
  • 127 Jadestone – Plan 4 – 1181 sq ft – $589,000 – 146 (+119 +41 + 129 + 42) DOM

    • Original asking price was $695,000

  • 234 Coral Rose – Plan 2 – 1181 sq ft – $594,000 – 193 DOM
  • 231 Danbrook – Plan 4 – 1200 sq ft – $599,000 – 82 (+180) DOM
  • 217 Danbrook – Plan 2 – 1155 sq ft – $599,000 – 22 DOM
  • 227 Coral Rose – Plan 4 – 1181 sq ft – $610,000 – 17 (+153) DOM
  • 105 Coral Rose – Plan 4 – 1181 sq ft – $619,000 – 109 DOM
  • 100 Coral Rose – Plan 2 – 1155 sq ft – $629,000 – 13 DOM
  • 107 Coral Rose – Plan 3 – 1181 sq ft – $648,000 – 21 DOM
  • 116 Jadestone – Plan 2 – 1155 sq ft – $659,000 – 109 DOM
  • 145 Danbrook – Plan 7 – 1400 sq ft – $659,900 – 39 (+379) DOM

    • Original asking price was $804,995

  • 226 Coral Rose – Plan 7 – 1400 sq ft – $669,000 – 49 (+92) DOM
  • 103 Jadestone – Plan 5 – 1324 sq ft – $675,000 – 120 DOM
  • 142 Coral Rose – Plan 7A – 1445 sq ft – $679,000 – 22 DOM
  • 126 Coral Rose – Plan 7A – 1445 sq ft – $689,000 – 120 (+27) DOM
  • 129 Jadestone – Plan 5 – 1500 sq ft – $729,000 – 25 DOM

Yes, there really are 18 properties on the market in this complex. I believe all the Plan information above is correct, although some of the square footage numbers are suspect.
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The description for 129 Jadestone says: “Rarely on the market, largest floorplan with premium corner location. Highly upgraded with travertine flooring, crown mouldings, gourmet kitchen with stainless steel appliances, granite counters, back splash, custom paint and large master bedroom with gorgeous master bath. Enjoy the many amenities which include pool, spa, BBQ, hiking trails and parks. Model perfect!

The Plan 5 is the only 3 bedroom and it is 1324 sq ft (not 1500) and it is not the largest. Hopefully the agent corrects this information soon.

Looking at the listings, I noticed that there are a few that continue to chase the market down. In this market, you really need to price aggressively if you want to sell quickly.

Home Sales Data thru 7-25-2007

From today’s OC Register: “For the 22 business days ending July 25, sales for all types of Orange County home sales decreased 18.9 percent. The median sales price increased 1.1 percent. The median is where half the homes sold for more and half for less. Types of homes selling, as well as home value changes, cause the median to change.

Median sale price

Sales volume

ZIP

code

prev. 4 weeks

% change

from ’06

prev. 4 weeks

% change

from ’06

92602

$765,000

4.8%

23

-30.3%

92603

$918,000

-6.6%

46

12.2%

92604

$626,250

-6.8%

26

13.0%

92606

$662,500

-11.7%

30

76.5%

92612

$900,000

70.2%

49

250.0%

92614

$474,000

-21.0%

12

-52.0%

92618

$670,000

15.8%

17

70.0%

92620

$748,500

-17.4%

57

-5.0%

Source: DataQuick

Greystone Villas – Investment Gone Awry

Address: 963 Somerville, Irvine, CA 92620 (Northwood)

Plan: 1481 sq ft – 3/2.5

MLS: S482981 DOM: 124

Sale History: 1/12/2006: $628,000

10/3/2002: $360,000

9/19/2000: $283,000

4/29/1999: $232,000

Price Reduced: 07/05/07 — $645,000 to $599,980

Current Price: $599,980

This is our third post featuring the Greystone Villas tract (#1, #2). We’ll provide updates to those homes but first let’s take a look at this one. Here we’ve got a 3bd/2.5ba Plan B that was purchased for $628,000 ($565,200 loan at 7%) on 1/12/2006 . It was immediately rented out for $2,350/month on 1/20/2006. How negative do you suppose that cashflow is?

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It looks like a refinance was done on 7/31/2006 through PMC Bancorp – $536,000 First Mortgage at 1% (teaser rate?) and a $67,000 HELOC. The property was eventually listed for sale on 4/9/2007 for $645,000. A price drop on 7/5/2007 brought the price down to $599,980. If sold at the asking price of $599,980, the investor stands to lose over $64,000 (assuming 6% in selling costs and not including negative cash flow).

Soo.. what’s the latest with the 3 bedrooms in this tract? First let’s update the older posts:

Update on Post #1: 129 Islington was taken off the market on 10/19/2006.

Update on Post #2: 301 Rathbourne is accepting backup offers and is showing a price of $599,900 (loss of $61,000 assuming 6% selling costs).

  • 601 Newcastle sold for $615,000 on 4/12/2007 – 76 DOM (orig at $649,000).

  • 135 Islington sold for $610,000 on 3/17/2007 – 202 DOM. (orig at $669,900)

  • 161 Islington rented for $2,700 on 4/25/2007. (orig at $724,000)

Currently, these are the 3 bedrooms (same plan) on the market competing with our new feature, 963 Somerville:

141 Islington is Bank Owned and 39 Darlington as well as 963 Somerville could be headed in that direction. The tract high price of $680k compared to the $599.9k sale in escrow represents an 11.7% drop in prices has already occurred.

The Villas of Shady Canyon – Mark McGwire's Old Place – UPDATE #1

Originally posted January 9, 2007

Address: 3 Redbird, Irvine, CA 92603 (Shady Canyon)
Plan: 4240 sq ft – 4bd/4 and 2 .5ba
MLS: U6601263 DOM: 238
Sale History: 3/8/2006: $3,950,000
4/15/2002?: $1,842,500 (From Zillow)
Price Reduced: 06/28/06 — $4,195,000 to $4,050,000
Price Reduced: 08/23/06 — $4,050,000 to $3,950,000
Price Reduced: 10/13/06 — $3,950,000 to $3,850,000
Current Price: $3,850,000

An astute reader emailed me about this flip last week (Thank you!). Here we have a Plan 2 in The Villas of Shady Canyon tract built by Taylor Woodrow. This is one of the few (3?) semi custom tracts in Shady Canyon. The rest of the homes are all custom. It’s a beautiful home and was originally owned by baseball power hitter Mark McGwire.

It appears that a flipper purchased this home from McGwire for $3,950,000 on 3/8/2006 (good timing for Mark but not for our flipper). It was listed back on the market about 2 months later for $4,195,000 with John McMonigle (recent article). At that price, the flipper would barely break even after selling costs.

Over the course of 2006, the flipper lowered the price three times. These are pretty significant dollar reductions. Also, from what I can tell off the MLS listing, this property is vacant and my guess is that the flipper never moved in. I also see a loan for about $1,500,000. The HOA dues are about $560/month.

Excluding carrying and opportunity costs (but assuming 6% in selling costs), if sold at the currenty asking price, this seller is facing a loss of over $330,000!

Private remarks also state: “CLIENT IS OFFERING $20,000 TO ANY BROKER (PARTICIPATING IN MLS) WHO BRINGS IN A BUYER THAT GOES INTO CONTRACT AND CLOSES ESCROW ON PROPERTY.” I suppose that is on TOP of the 2.5% the broker will receive for bringing in a client.

This is definitely the biggest $ flop we’ve seen in Irvine. If anyone has more insight into this (or has information contrary to what I’ve found), please post.

Anyone care to guess if the house will sell quicker if Mark McGwire is inducted into the Hall of Fame today?

UPDATE #1 – June 8, 2007

Thanks to a tip from a reader, I’ve come to find out that the price on this home has been reduced again:

MLS: U6601263
Price Reduced: 05/22/07 — $3,850,000 to $3,695,000

Excluding carrying and opportunity costs (but assuming 6% in selling costs), if sold at the currenty asking price, this seller is facing a loss of over $476,000!

Not an exact comparison.. But there is a Plan 1 on the same street (19 Redbird MLS #: U7000758) asking $3,250,000. It’s been on the market for 110 days. I don’t think anything has sold in Shady Canyon in the last 6 months. Anyone have more info?

More Jasmine Dew Drops in Quail Hill – UPDATE #1

Originally posted April 26, 2007

Address: 260 Dewdrop, Irvine, CA 92603 (Quail Hill)
Plan: 830 sq ft – 1/1
MLS: U7000571 DOM: 84
Sale History: 11/21/2005: $445,000
10/23/2003: $251,000
Price Reduced: 03/22/07 — $445,000 to $434,900
Current Price: $434,900

Many thanks to the reader who tipped us off to this property! Here we’ve got a Plan 1 in the Jasmine tract in Quail Hill. It was most recently purchased for $445,000 with 100% down (both loans from Greenpoint) on 11/21/2005. $445k for a 1bd? Yikes!

Fast forward about 14 months and the property is back on the market. Originally listed at $445k (hey, it should be worth at least what I bought it for right?), it was reduced a little after 1.5 months. Although this property does not qualify for a Knife Catcher award, the owner (or will it be the lender in this case?) is definitely bleeding money every month as the property is listed as VACANT.

The property taxes for the 2005 Roll Year were delinquent. Now, the website is showing them as paid on 3/26/2007. Also, the first installment for the 2006 Roll Year is also Delinquent. About $7k in property taxes (1st and 2nd installments) are due by 7/2/2007. It looks like they are trying but they probably got in over their heads.

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The original owner (the buyer in 2003) made quite a nice profit in 2 years. From what I can see on title, it looks like they may have put up to $80k down on that purchase. So the original owner bought a $250k property, may have put $80k of their own money down, owned the property for about 2 years, got lucky with the timing and price of the sale, and made around $170k. Contrast that with the current owner who bought a $445k property, put $0 down, owned the property for 1.5 years, got unlucky with the timing and price, and will lose at least $36k (assuming 6% in selling costs)!

UPDATE #1 – June 8, 2007

Here’s a quick update. The price was reduced again a few days after the initial post.

MLS: U7000571
Price Reduced: 04/30/07 — $434,900 to $428,900

The loss will be about $42k if we assume 6% in selling costs. This one has gotta be going back to the bank.