Author Archives: IrvineRenter

The financial planner who advocated HELOC abuse lost his house

Some people who should know better got caught up in the financial mania. Today's story is very instructive. I admire the author for his bravery in admitting his idiocy.

Irvine Home Address … 76 TIDEWIND Irvine, CA 92603

Resale Home Price …… $789,000

how stupid could I be

a simpleton could see

everything changes

everything falls apart

can't stop to feel myself losing control

but deep in my senses I know

Sarah McLachlan — Stupid

We all do stupid things. I know I have. It's what people learn from their mistakes that counts.

Today's featured article is written by a financial planner in Las Vegas who believed and acted upon every false belief of the housing bubble. He didn't just make a few stupid decisions, he made them all. Rather than being an object of ridicule, I admire his courage to stand up and tell his story.

Since I began writing for the IHB, my focus has always been on educating people on the mistakes of the housing bubble. If the foolish decisions people made are not seen for the folly they were, the mistakes will be repeated. In that regard, I find Carl Richards' story compelling. He appears to have learned from his mistakes, and now he is working to educate others on what not to do. Perhaps he may become a good finanical planner after all. His advice is undoubtedly better today than it was five years ago.

How a Financial Pro Lost His House

By CARL RICHARDS — Published: November 8, 2011

… I’m a financial adviser. I get paid to help people make smart financial choices, and I speak and write about personal finance issues for this publication and others. My first book comes out in January, “The Behavior Gap: Simple Ways to Stop Doing Dumb Things With Money” (Portfolio, a Penguin imprint).The thing that few people know, though, is that I learned a lot of this from experience. I made a bunch of mistakes, the very same ones that I now go around warning people to avoid.

So this is the story of how I lost my home, the profound ethical questions that arose along the way, and what my wife and I learned from the mistakes that led us to that point. It made me better at what I do, but it wasn’t much fun getting there.

… That was May 2003. Housing prices were already crazy, so we rented. But our neighborhood had zero character and lots of cookie-cutter houses. Within a few weeks, we were looking for a place to buy.I felt we could afford around $350,000. We called a real estate agent named Mitch, who had signs on all the bus stops: Talk to Mitch! He picked us up in a gold Jaguar, and suddenly we were looking at houses that listed at $500,000 or more.

It felt a little crazy to be shopping for houses that cost half a million dollars, but my income was growing rapidly. Everywhere I looked, people were being rewarded for buying as much house as they could possibly afford, and then some. There was this excitement in the air, almost like static. I started to think that if I didn’t buy a house right then, I would never be able to afford one.

Fallacy #1: Buy now or be priced out forever. How many people succumb to that fallacy?

At moments during our house hunt, I felt in my gut that something wasn’t right. We’d go to open houses for $400,000 homes and see lines of couples in their late 20s — younger than we were — waiting to get inside. I kept wondering where all the money was coming from. How did all these people make so much?

But prices just kept rising, and when people kept buying, that made it seem safer. I knew from my work as a financial adviser that following the crowd could be costly. But like everyone else, I felt safer in a crowd.

Fallacy #2: There is safety in the Herd. Following the herd is almost always a financial disaster.

We didn’t find anything we liked with Mitch, but one day in September 2003 Cori spotted a for-sale-by-owner sign in a really nice neighborhood. We ended up buying the house and paid the asking price of $575,000. (When we tried to negotiate on price, the owners were amused; it just wasn’t that kind of market.)

We borrowed 100 percent of the purchase price. In fact, I was told I could borrow even more if I wanted. I had perfect credit and a solid income that was growing. But even so, when the lender approved us at 100 percent, it was more than I had expected. I remember thinking something like “Wow. I guess if they’re willing to lend it to us it must be O.K.”

Fallacy #3: Using 100% financing is safe.

I should have known better. No matter how well things are going, borrowing 100 percent of the purchase price of a home is not a good idea. I shouldn’t have relied on someone else to make that calculation, let alone the guy who was making money putting me in the loan. I was a financial adviser, and I never sat down to figure out what it would take to make this work. I just wanted to believe him. And it was so easy to believe he had been right, at least at first. We loved living there. The children went to an awesome public school, and we made some great friends. I could ride my bike to Red Rocks, the wilderness area outside of town. And for a time, the real estate market erased any doubt I may have had. It just kept going up.

One evening in 2006 comes to mind. My sister-in-law was thinking of moving to Las Vegas, and a real estate agent told me about an open house for a new Toll Brothers community. This wasn’t a come-by-for-cookies type of open house; it was held at a Las Vegas hotel ballroom. I arrived to find a line that led down a flight of stairs and out of the front door. Before I got to the front of the line, they stopped admitting people. Then people rushed the door, like it was a rock concert.

The market’s continued strength meant we could borrow even more. It was easy. In late 2004, a year after buying the house, we refinanced our mortgage with World Savings Bank, which later ended up in the hands of Wells Fargo, using one of the pick-a-payment loans that let you choose your own payment each month.

We picked the lowest possible payment, the one that added to our balance each month instead of subtracting from it. And we added a line of credit with Wells Fargo.

Fallacy #4: Option ARMs are a safe form of financing.

Around that time, I left Merrill Lynch to become an independent financial adviser, so it was easy enough to convince ourselves that we were borrowing to pay for the start-up costs.

Fallacy #5: Rising house prices can finance a new business or a spendthrift lifestyle.

There was some truth to that, but we were also borrowing against the house to finance our lifestyle. The line between business expenses and personal ones is sometimes hard to draw when you run your own business, and during those heady times it seemed even harder. But in hindsight it is clear that we were spending more than we should have on things like recreational gear and family trips for ourselves and our four children.

It was extravagant, but it seemed modest compared to what some of our neighbors were doing. Our house was the smallest model in the neighborhood (though at 3,500 square feet it was hardly tiny), and we drove a Chevy and a VW. Cori and I and some of our friends had a lot of conversations comparing our spending habits to those around us. How can so-and-so afford a boat? How are people buying new trucks and four-wheelers and 5,000-square-foot homes? Do they know something we don’t know?

At times, it seemed as if maybe they did. I knew a builder of custom homes who urged me to buy one of his houses for close to $2 million. I told him there were at least a million reasons why I couldn’t do that. He looked at me like I just didn’t get it. He assured me the house was appraised for $200,000 more than the asking price, and that after I lived there I could take out a line of credit to live on while the house went up even further.

The crazy thing is, he was right. The place eventually sold for more than $3 million. When I heard that, I felt a little silly that we hadn’t taken that risk.

Fallacy #6: The high end is immune to price declines from credit problems.

As for our spending, we told each other that we’d catch up later, as my income and the value of our home continued to rise. As late as February 2006, a comparable home in our neighborhood sold for $998,000. We made the classic mistake of projecting recent trends — even extreme ones — into the future.

But slowly — and then increasingly — we began to have a different kind of conversation, “When are we going to stop and just get on top of this?” The solution was always making more money, not cutting back. The fact is, it’s much easier to set a goal of making more money in the future than it is to buckle down and cut back today.

Fallacy #7: You can earn your way out of insolvency. Unless your Nicolas Cage making $20M a picture, once you go insolvent, bankruptcy is likely the only way out.

We never really worried that things would go to pieces the way they ultimately did. But then came the collapse in the stock market. I had clients calling in tears and breaking down in my office. People who had never worried about their portfolios were calling me from their vacations. It was like talking people in off a ledge virtually every day, maybe three times a day, for maybe 90 days in a row.

The range of potential outcomes had gotten so broad in people’s minds that it now included the end of the world. What they wanted and needed more than anything was reassurance that things would be O.K. and that they should stick with the investment plans we had created together. Providing that reassurance had been my job for 10 years or more, but this was the first time that I really wondered if my advice was right.

It was my job to assist them, but I found it incredibly stressful. It didn’t help that we were in increasingly dire straits ourselves. My income fell about 20 percent because my take-home pay depended on the amount of money I managed. At the same time, our cost for health insurance and property taxes kept increasing, and the payment on our mortgage reset higher as well.

By then, housing prices in Las Vegas were falling quickly, and the bank had cut off our home equity line of credit. We quickly got rid of a car and stopped taking trips. I moved into a smaller workspace and cut back on my administrative and marketing costs. Even so, we found ourselves using credit cards as emergency stopgaps.

Fallacy #8: You can borrow your way to prosperity.

Then, the sickness set in. The pain would start in my stomach, and then I’d spend six hours vomiting. It happened once, then three months later it happened again, then one month later it happened yet again. Eventually, it was happening every couple of weeks. The doctors couldn’t find a physical cause.

I know that problem. I've never found myself throwing up from stress, but I have had all-day headaches and days I could not eat. Stress will tear you apart.

Right around that time, it became clear that we might need to get back to Utah, where 90 percent of my (still nervous) clients lived. We spent the summer of 2009 living in my in-laws’ basement in Salt Lake City, while I tried to stabilize my financial planning business. By that fall, I was convinced we had to move back permanently to save the business. But that meant we faced the question of what to do about the house.

By then, we owed over $200,000 more than our original loan balance. …

At first, I dismissed the idea of a short sale. Late that summer, I sat down with a really close friend in Las Vegas, someone I looked up to. He cut to the heart of the matter right away: Why, he wanted to know, were we still making the payments?

Because I have a moral obligation, I said. You pay your debts.

He proceeded to explain that I didn’t have a moral obligation to the bank. I had a moral obligation to my family. I had a contractual obligation to the bank, along with a clear moral obligation to be honest in my dealings. What he was asking was this: Which is more important? Your contractual obligation to the bank or your obligation to your family to preserve your ability to make a living?

I had never thought of it that way. But it made sense. I summed it up to myself like this: I have a contractual obligation to the bank (as well as a moral obligation not to skirt the consequences of breaking it: losing my house and wrecking my credit score). But my moral obligation to my family trumps the contractual obligation to the bank.

I have made the same argument many times. I still believe it to be true.

Cori and I thought about this for months, but we finally decided to let the house go and stop making payments so we could pursue a mortgage modification or a short sale. The fact was, we didn’t have a choice. We simply couldn’t afford it.

I remained troubled by the ethical implications of what I was doing, but I soon started seeing some of my friend’s arguments echoed in the work of Brent T. White, a law professor at the University of Arizona. He and others were arguing that homeowners should act more like companies — taking into account legal and economic reasons for stopping a regular payment rather than “perceived moral obligations.”

That was reassuring in the dead of night while I sat in front of the computer trying to make sense of the world financial markets and my own personal situation. I remember being relieved at discovering a way to frame my decision.

But we didn’t know what would happen in the harsh light of day, and we were scared to death. Would we be kicked out of our house? What would the neighbors think? What would the children think? We worried about the stress on our relationship and even the survival of our marriage. I felt like a complete failure.

I am always amazed when I hear people who are motivated about what they believe the neighbors will think. It reminds me of an old adage: At 20, you worry about what everyone thinks. At 40, you don't care what anyone thinks. At 60, you realize nobody was ever thinking about you. They were all too busy worrying about what you were thinking.

… We were pretty low when we packed up to leave. We hadn’t told anyone about the short sale — not family and only one or two friends. But we sensed that people knew anyway.

We borrowed a truck from a friend who owns a wood mill to move our belongings. Back in Utah, we found a house to rent— much to my relief and after months of being terrified that we’d never be able to find a landlord willing to take a chance on us. I had to tell the owner what had happened. He looked at our personal references and let us lease the house anyway.

People worry they won't be able to rent a house or borrow money after a financial collapse. Most people grossly overestimate the negative consequences of strategic default.

We love where we live now. Still, there are consequences. We lost our home. It’s not clear when we’ll be in a position to become homeowners again.

But the worst thing was my sense of complete failure and powerlessness when I realized that things were out of control and that it was my fault. These days, there is still a sense of genuine regret that I screwed up and hurt myself and other people. I still worry about what others think of my behavior, which is one reason I haven’t shared this story with many people until recently.

… Still, the questions linger. As I ponder all this — and I think about it a lot — it occurs to me that we are a nation of risk-takers. Some of us were overoptimistic; some were ignorant; some were deluded; some were greedy; some just had bad timing. We erred to different degrees. Our experiences varied; each story is different. Now you know mine. The experience has changed just about everything about how I do financial planning and the advice I give in public. For one thing, I am less quick to judge other people’s financial behavior. I’m also more inclined to take into account personal factors that determine how people behave around money.

Just because you make some mistakes about money doesn't mean you shouldn't use that wisdom to notice the mistakes other people make. Mistakes are still mistakes. If you can make judgments and discrenments about what behaviors are wise and which ones are foolish, you don't grow.

I have a friend who is going through a tough time financially. He has a high income, but is burdened by debt from a few real estate deals that went south. He continues to take fairly expensive ski trips. That would seem irresponsible in his situation, and maybe they are.

But I now realize that it is not that simple. Maybe those trips are keeping the guy alive, or saving his marriage or keeping him sane enough to work.

Bullshit. Spendthrift behavior is not going to allow anyone to reach their financial goals. It isn't a matter of judging someone good or evil to notice whether or not their behavior is serving them well or not. I watched a guy at a craps table lose most of his paycheck while his wife was standing there berating him and complaining about having no money to buy diapers for their baby. I don't think that man was well served by his behavior, and I didn't think him evil, but he was clearly pretty stupid. Is that judging, or observing?

As for Cori and me, things are much better now. Moving back to Utah clearly was the right choice. The business is doing well, and we’ve managed to pay down most of our debt. It would be easy to say that we’ve learned our lesson, that we’ll never screw up again.

But it’s not that simple. At times I’m absolutely clear about what makes sense. Then ordinary life choices arise, and things can get cloudy. Should our children play sports that cost money? What kind of family vacation is O.K.? How much is enough?

We’re still working on that last one. But we are asking the question, repeatedly. And the temptation to overspend, to go for it, to tell ourselves that things will work out in the long run, is tempered by a feeling that something big is at stake. …

I question whether or not this guy has figured it out yet. Perhaps this will help:

Turtle Rock 3/2 under $400/SF, under $3,000 monthly cost of ownership

Given how inflated prices still are in Turtle Rock, it's unusual to find a property trading at or below rental parity. Today's featured property is one of them.

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This property is available for sale via the MLS.

Please contact Shevy Akason, #01836707

949.769.1599

sales@idealhomebrokers.com

Irvine House Address … 76 TIDEWIND Irvine, CA 92603

Resale House Price …… $789,000

Beds: 3

Baths: 2

Sq. Ft.: 2000

$394/SF

Property Type: Residential, Condominium

Style: Two Level, Traditional

Year Built: 1984

Community: Turtle Rock

County: Orange

MLS#: S656808

Source: CRMLS

Status: Active

On Redfin: 197 days

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WOW!! Priced Reduced to sell NOW!! Great price for this lovely neighborhood!!!Beautiful 'Standard Pacific' Home located on a private cul de sac * * Gated entry w/ Pavers * * Tastefully upgraded Home * * Foyer has Porcelian Tile Flooring * Separate Formal Dining Room * * Formal Living Room w/ Gorgeous Custom Tile Fireplace and Mantel * * Kitchen offers Granite Countertops W/ Tumbled Marble Backsplash & extended spacious counters, Nickel hardware & Stainless Steel Appliances * Recessed Lighting * All Baths have Granite countertops and Customs Mirrors * Master has dual Vanity sinks, large tile shower, walk in closest * Backyard Brick Patio and raised Brick planters * Lemon and Lime trees *

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Proprietary IHB commentary and analysis

Resale Home Price …… $789,000

House Purchase Price … $452,000

House Purchase Date …. 5/16/2001

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $289,660

Percent Change ………. 64.1%

Annual Appreciation … 5.3%

Cost of Home Ownership

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$789,000 ………. Asking Price

$157,800 ………. 20% Down Conventional

4.06% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$631,200 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$162,909 ………. Income Requirement

$3,035 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$684 ………. Property Tax (@1.04%)

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$164 ………. Homeowners Insurance (@ 0.25%)

$0 ………. Private Mortgage Insurance

$325 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$4,208 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$705 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$900 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment (Amortization)

$224 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$119 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$2,947 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

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$7,890 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$7,890 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$6,312 ………. Interest Points

$157,800 ………. Down Payment

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$179,892 ………. Total Cash Costs

$45,100 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

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$224,992 ………. Total Savings Needed

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Lesson from Iceland: let the banks fail

When faced with an insolvent and bankrupt banking sector, Iceland chose to let them fail. Now while we are struggling, Iceland is recovering. We should have let our banks fail too.

Irvine Home Address … 146 ORANGE BLOSSOM #116 Irvine, CA 92618

Resale Home Price …… $169,000

Bleak church on a cold tundra

Mountain-glacier-glacier-glacier-stream

Black stone beach and a black death bottle

Is all me and my baby'll need

In the tropical, tropical

Tropical ice-land

The Fiery Furnaces — Tropical Iceland

I believe we should have let our too-big-to-fail banks go bankrupt. Many have contended this would have created a global catastrophe of some sort, but I rather doubt it. In reality, a bunch of bondholders and shareholders would have lost a great deal of money, but life would have gone on. The government could have recapitalized the banking system and sold the stock for a profit when the economy recovered. In the end, we bailed out a group of people who should have lost money, and crippled our economy.

Would the recession of 2008 have been worse if we let our banks fail? Sure. It would have been very painful, but it also would have been over. It's better to take a band aid off quickly and get the pain over with quickly than endure the slow bleed we are now. I'm not the only one who believes this to be true.

Key lesson from Iceland crisis is 'let banks fail'

By Haukur Holm | AFP – Sat, Nov 5, 2011

Three years after Iceland's banks collapsed and the country teetered on the brink, its economy is recovering, proof that governments should let failing lenders go bust and protect taxpayers, analysts say.

The North Atlantic island saw its three biggest banks go belly-up in the October 2008 as its overstretched financial sector collapsed under the weight of the global crisis sparked by the crash of US investment giant Lehman Brothers.

The banks became insolvent within a matter of weeks and Reykjavik was forced to let them fail and seek a $2.25 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund.

After three years of harsh austerity measures, the country's economy is now showing signs of health despite the current global financial and economic crisis that has Greece verging on default and other eurozone states under pressure.

“The lesson that could be learned from Iceland's way of handling its crisis is that it is important to shield taxpayers and government finances from bearing the cost of a financial crisis to the extent possible,” Islandsbanki analyst Jon Bjarki Bentsson told AFP.

Iceland refused to have taxpayers absorb the private losses. They endured a brief period of severe economic contraction, but now its over. The taxpayers don't have a lingering debt, and the economy is recovering more robustly than countries which chose to bail out their banks.

“Even if our way of dealing with the crisis was not by choice but due to the inability of the government to support the banks back in 2008 due to their size relative to the economy, this has turned out relatively well for us,” Bentsson said.

Iceland's banking sector had assets worth 11 times the country's total gross domestic product (GDP) at their peak.

Iceland bailing out the banks was never an option because the problem was too big. It turned out to be a blessing for them. Rather than be saddled with a generation of debt, the Icelandic taxpayers have a clean slate. What do we have? How many trillions of dollars will this cost us?

Nobel Prize-winning US economist Paul Krugman echoed Bentsson.

“Where everyone else bailed out the bankers and made the public pay the price, Iceland let the banks go bust and actually expanded its social safety net,” he wrote in a recent commentary in the New York Times.

“Where everyone else was fixated on trying to placate international investors, Iceland imposed temporary controls on the movement of capital to give itself room to maneuver,” he said.

That's an accurate description of what happened. Iceland bailed out Main Street while allowing their Wall Street to go belly up, and they are better off for it.

During a visit to Reykjavik last week, Krugman also said Iceland has the krona to thank for its recovery, warning against the notion that adopting the euro can protect against economic imbalances.

The problem Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal are having is caused by their being the in Euro. If they still had their own currencies, they would print their way out of debt and inflate away the problem. The resulting decrease in the value of their currency would boost their exports and rebalance their economy. It's what we will ultimately do to correct the problem too. Notice nobody is talking about austerity here in the US.

“Iceland's economic rebound shows the advantages of being outside the euro. This notion that by joining the euro you would be safe would come as news to the Spaniards,” he said, referring to one of the key eurozone states struggling to put its public finances in order.

Iceland's example cannot be directly compared to the dramatic problems currently seen in Greece or Italy, however.

“The big difference between Greece, Italy, etc at the moment and Iceland back in 2008 is that the latter was a banking crisis caused by the collapse of an oversized banking sector while the former is the result of a sovereign debt crisis that has spilled over into the European banking sector,” Bentsson said.

“In Iceland, the government was actually in a sound position debt-wise before the crisis.”

We were running a large deficit due to Bush's policies, so our government wasn't as healthy as it was when Clinton left office, but we could have chosen to allow the banks to fail and recapitalized the system. We didn't have a soverign debt problem until we decided to absorb the banking sector losses and run up a massive debt (thank you Obama).

Iceland's former prime minister Geir Haarde, in power during the 2008 meltdown and currently facing trial over his handling of the crisis, has insisted his government did the right thing early on by letting the banks fail and making creditors carry the losses.

We saved the country from going bankrupt,” Haarde, 68, told AFP in an interview in July.

Haarde was absolutely correct. I wish Bush would have had the courage to be a Republican back in 2008 and let the free market work. Instead, Bush chose to socialize the losses. Karl Marx would have been proud.

“That is evident if you look at our situation now and you compare it to Ireland or not to mention Greece,” he said, adding that the two debt-wracked EU countries “made mistakes that we did not make … We did not guarantee the external debts of the banking system.

Like Ireland and Latvia, also rescued by international bailout packages and now in recovery, Iceland implemented strict austerity measures and is now reaping the fruits of its efforts.

So much so that its central bank on Wednesday raised its key interest rate by a quarter point to 4.75 percent, in sharp contrast to most other developed countries which have slashed their borrowing costs amid the current crises.

Iceland devalued its currency, rebalanced its flow of funds, and now they can raise interest rates to stabilize its currency and continue with their economic recovery.

It said economic growth in the first half of 2011 was 2.5 percent and was forecast to be just over 3.0 percent for the year as a whole.

David Stefansson, a research analyst at Arion Bank, told AFP Iceland hiked its rates because it “is in a different place in the economic (cycle) than other countries.

“The central bank thinks that other central banks in similar circumstances can afford to keep interest rates low, and even lower them, because expected inflation abroad is in general quite (a bit) lower,” he said.

Iceland has hit bottom and is recovering because they made a different decision than we did in 2008. We should have let the banks fail, nationalized them, recapitalized the system and endured the pain. We would be much better off now if we had.

Five years and 50% off

Back in 2007 I predicted Irvine house prices would falter by 39%. Some would fall more and some would fall less. Today's featured property is one that fell more.

The loan owners of today's featured property paid $326,000 using a $309,700 first mortgage and a $15,300 down payment. They refinanced on 2/22/2007 for $320,000 and got all but $6,000 of their down payment back.

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This property is available for sale via the MLS.

Please contact Shevy Akason, #01836707

949.769.1599

sales@idealhomebrokers.com

Irvine House Address … 146 ORANGE BLOSSOM #116 Irvine, CA 92618

Resale House Price …… $169,000

Beds: 1

Baths: 1

Sq. Ft.: 739

$229/SF

Property Type: Residential, Condominium

Style: One Level, Contemporary

View: Creek/Stream

Year Built: 1976

Community: Orangetree

County: Orange

MLS#: S679048

Source: CRMLS

On Redfin: 5 days

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Standard sale . Tranquality awaits you at this charming turn-key home with patio overlooking a peacful stream and lush grounds. Minute to Irvinespectrum. one bedroom condo located close to Irvine vally collage. This condo has loundry inside and installed shelves in living room.

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Proprietary IHB commentary and analysis

Resale Home Price …… $169,000

House Purchase Price … $326,000

House Purchase Date …. 1/12/2006

Net Gain (Loss) ………. ($167,140)

Percent Change ………. -51.3%

Annual Appreciation … -10.8%

Cost of Home Ownership

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$169,000 ………. Asking Price

$5,915 ………. 3.5% Down FHA Financing

4.06% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$163,085 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$55,102 ………. Income Requirement

$784 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$146 ………. Property Tax (@1.04%)

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$35 ………. Homeowners Insurance (@ 0.25%)

$188 ………. Private Mortgage Insurance

$270 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$1423 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$70 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$232 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment (Amortization)

$8 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$41 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$1,171 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

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$1,690 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$1,690 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$1,631 ………. Interest Points

$5,915 ………. Down Payment

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$10,926 ………. Total Cash Costs

$17,900 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$28,826 ………. Total Savings Needed

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Short-Sale and REO Workshop

Tonight is the night.

Shevy Akason and Larry Roberts will host a short sale and REO workshop at 6:30 PM Wednesday, November 16, 2011, at the offices of Intercap Lending (9401 Jeronimo, Suite 200, Irvine, CA 92618).

The real state of Irvine and Orange County real estate: October 2011

Today we have the monthly update for the Orange County housing market for October 2011.

Irvine Home Address … 12 MILLBRAE Irvine, CA 92602

Resale Home Price …… $615,000

We are the nothing grating against the norm

We are the something that will not conform

No one understands what we've been given

Nevermore — Enemies of Reality

Back in March, I wrote a post titled The future of IHB news and real estate analysis. In that post, I made a commitment to accurate reporting:

I have no agenda to spin the data. Let's see what is really going on. I want to be accurate. People can make their own decisions and draw their own conclusions from accurate data. If approached without the built-in bias of a realtor, data analysis can be revealing rather than deceiving.

I will still have a dog in this hunt. I do run a business that makes money from real estate transactions. I am subject to the same biases as any other human being. I sell real estate, but I am not a realtor. The truth needs no salesman. I will present data as accurately as I can. If reality motivates you to buy or rent, the IHB can help you. I have no desire to manipulate data in order to make a quick buck. This is a part-time hobby for me, not my livelihood.

I now have accurate data which is updated each month. I have been presenting this data at our monthly IHB presentations. Now, I have created the first IHB monthly newsletter which presents this data in a format anyone can download and read at their leisure.

This is a work in progress, but I am pleased with what we have so far. Take a look for yourself and tell me what you think in the comments. Constructive criticism will be greatly appreciated. Any questions about the data or its presentation will help me improve future newsletters.

IHB Newsletter – 10-2011

Just for giggles, let's read Lawrence Yun admitting to the housing bubble yet calling the bottom. Bullshitter…

“Moderate’ housing recovery forecast for next year

November 11th, 2011, 11:02 am by

National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun forecast Friday that U.S. home prices will go up from 2% in 2012, part of a gradual improvement that will continue through 2014.

In addition, Yun told reporters at the NAR annual conference in Anaheim that he now pegs the probability of a new recession at 10% to 15% — down from his estimate six months ago of a 30% probability of renewed recession.

Although he believes the U.S. economy would “be teetering on a recession” if the Euro debt crisis expands, he said he doubts that will happen and predicted that the crisis will be contained in Italy.

“The market has been tough, but there are some developing positive signs,” Yun told a mid-day news conference at the Anaheim Convention Center. “As a result, there will be a recovery occurring next year, and it will continue in 2013 and 2014. It is not a great robust expansion. … But it is a moderate recovery.”

Yun also forecast that rents will rise for the next five years.

Specifically, Yun said:

  • U.S. home prices will rise 2% to 3% next year, 3% in 2013 and 4% in 2014.
  • Existing home sales will increase 4% to 5% in 2012. This year’s sales are projected to be up 1% to 4.96 million housing units.
  • Rent will increase 3% in 2012 and 3.5% in 2013 and 2014.

There you have it. House prices will rise next year. Therefore, we are at the bottom. It would be laughable if were printed in the Onion. But Yun actually pretends to have credibility, and some potential buyers actually believe him.

Yun noted that people buy a home today will see some price appreciation in future years. But the recovery will be too slow for people who bought homes at the peak of the market bubble and may not see prices back to what they paid for 10 years or more.

It will be quite a long time for people who bought right at the peak to gain recovery,” he said.

Yun noted that distressed properties – foreclosed homes and underwater homes – now make up a third of all housing transactions in the U.S. That will remain unchanged next year, and will be only slightly better in 2013, he said.

“Distressed property sales will be with us for the next two years. The question is, will the buyers be there to sop up sales?” he said.

Also speaking Friday was Richard Peach, senior vice president at the Federal Reserve Board of New York, who was less optimistic about prospects for housing.

Citing a host of economic data from income ratios and savings rates to bond yield spreads, Peach concluded that the U.S. economy continues to operate well below its potential. He said also that the bulk of foreclosures and mortgage defaults lie ahead.

“I’m not as sanguine about the future prospects of home prices,” Peach said.

So where would you rather get your real estate market information, the IHB or the NAr?

Short-Sale and REO Workshop

Shevy Akason and Larry Roberts will host a short sale and REO workshop at 6:30 PM Wednesday, November 16, 2011, at the offices of Intercap Lending (9401 Jeronimo, Suite 200, Irvine, CA 92618).

Peak buyer got two years of squatting

The former owner of today's featured REO paid $835,000 on 3/13/2006. They used a $636,000 first mortgage, a $64,000 HELOC, and a $135,000 down payment. The down payment money is now gone. They did manage to obtain two years of squatting before the auction.

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 10/20/2010

Document Type: Notice of Sale

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 08/13/2009

Document Type: Notice of Sale

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 05/12/2009

Document Type: Notice of Default

——————————————————————————————————————————————-

This property is available for sale via the MLS.

Please contact Shevy Akason, #01836707

949.769.1599

sales@idealhomebrokers.com

Irvine House Address … 12 MILLBRAE Irvine, CA 92602

Resale House Price …… $615,000

Beds: 3

Baths: 2

Sq. Ft.: 1966

$313/SF

Property Type: Residential, Single Family

Style: Two Level, Spanish

Year Built: 2001

Community: Northpark

County: Orange

MLS#: S663808

Source: CRMLS

Status: Active

On Redfin: 141 days

——————————————————————————

Beautiful, spacious and bright property within a gated community! House offers vaulted ceilings, new carpet, 3 bedrooms, and 2.5 baths! The master suite has walk in closet and jacuzzi tub. Enjoy granite kitchen counters with a breakfast bar, and a cozy fireplace in the living room! This property has so much to offer- must see! Highly desired Evergreen complex with pools, parks, clubhouse, tennis court and tot lot. Popular schools nearby.

——————————————————————————————————————————————-

Proprietary IHB commentary and analysis

Resale Home Price …… $615,000

House Purchase Price … $835,000

House Purchase Date …. 3/13/2006

Net Gain (Loss) ………. ($256,900)

Percent Change ………. -30.8%

Annual Appreciation … -5.3%

Cost of Home Ownership

————————————————-

$615,000 ………. Asking Price

$123,000 ………. 20% Down Conventional

4.06% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$492,000 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$133,757 ………. Income Requirement

$2,366 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$533 ………. Property Tax (@1.04%)

$133 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$128 ………. Homeowners Insurance (@ 0.25%)

$0 ………. Private Mortgage Insurance

$295 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$3,455 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$385 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$701 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment (Amortization)

$175 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$97 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$2,641 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$6,150 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$6,150 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$4,920 ………. Interest Points

$123,000 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$140,220 ………. Total Cash Costs

$40,400 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$180,620 ………. Total Savings Needed

——————————————————————————————————————————————————-

Irvine payment affordability skyrockets, hits new 11-year high

Over the last few months, falling interest rates, falling prices, and rising rents have made payment affordability hit an eleven-year high.

Irvine Home Address … 14772 DONCASTER Rd Irvine, CA 92604

Resale Home Price …… $505,000

Work it harder,

make it better

Do it faster,

makes us stronger

More than ever,

Hour after

Our work is never over

Daft Punk — Harder, Better, Faster, Stronger Lyrics

For the first time in the nearly five years I have been writing for this blog, prices across most of Irvine are trading at or below rental parity. There are significant market headwinds which will likely prevent house prices from moving higher, so relatively affordable prices may be with us for a while, and I think that is great news.

Today, we are going to take a detailed look at the Irvine data. This is the same data I present in our monthly OC housing market presentations. We will be taking December off, but we will be back in January to provide a live presentation of the current market data.

Months of Supply

In October and November, months of supply typically increases. Many sellers keep their homes on the market hoping for a late-year sale, but the demand dries up. With low demand and large supply, the months-of-supply calculations move much higher. The market is undeniably weak, but these numbers make circumstances look worse than they really are.

The importance of rental parity

I write frequently about rental parity because it represents the threshold of affordability. When prices are above rental parity, it costs more to own than to rent, so owning is not a wise financial decision. Owning may still be right for people, and many are willing to pay the premium to own to obtain the emotional benefits of ownership; however, on a purely financial basis, paying more than rental parity is generally not wise.

When prices are below rental parity, it costs less to own than to rent, so owning under these circumstances is generally a wise choice. Since a buyer who pays less than rental parity for a house is saving money, there is a clear financial benefit obtained irrespective of fluctuations in resale price.

When the cost of ownership is less than rental parity, an owner is far less likely to be forced to sell at a loss. The property can always be rented to cover costs rather than sell for a loss. Further, this ability to rent and at least break even provides the owner with flexibility to move if necessary. Mobility to take a new job or buy a different house is denied to those who overpaid and who are stuck paying more in the cost of ownership than they can obtain in rent.

With these advantages, buying at a price below rental parity using fixed-rate financing is critical. Every buyer should consider rental parity in their buying decision.

How rental parity is calculated

Each month I calculate rental parity using aggregate data from the MLS. It requires two data points to make the calculation:

  1. Average rental rate
  2. Current mortgage interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans.

I also make some key assumptions.

First, as mentioned previously, I assume a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. It's the only mortgage product which provides sufficient payment stability to ensure the property will always be affordable.

Second, only a percentage of the rent can be put toward a mortgage payment. It's not as simple as assuming the rent equals the payment.

The payment is generally smaller than the actual cost of ownership (today's featured property is a rare exception). The cost of ownership usually includes other costs like HOA dues, Mello Roos, maintenance expenses, and insurance. These costs erode the buying power of the rental payment. There are offsets with tax breaks and loan amortization, but generally, the cost of ownership is bigger than the payment.

Conventional financing

There are two assumptions which change depending on the type of financing used. A buyer using conventional financing does not pay private mortgage insurance or FHA insurance premiums. This means the cost of ownership is much closer to the actual payment. Or looked at another way, the rent which would be applied to the payment would be higher. When I make these calculations, I assume 90% of the rent could go toward making a loan payment. In areas with no HOAs or Mello Roos (like today's featured property) that assumption is too low, but in areas where the HOA and Mello Roos is high, the assumption is too high.

I take 90% of the aggregate rent as a potential loan payment. I calculate the mortgage balance such a payment would service at today's interest rate. The result is the loan component of rental parity. To the loan balance, I add an appropriate down payment. For conventional buyers, the down payment applied is 20%.

For example, if an area or zip code has an aggregate rent of $2,500 — a common number in Irvine — I will assume $2,250 is available to make a mortgage payment. At 4% interest, a $2,250 payment would service an astounding $471,288. If $471,288 were the loan balance, the down payment would be $117,822. The sum of those two is $589,110 which represents the rental parity equivalent of a $2,250 payment applied to a 4% fixed-rate mortgage using conventional terms.

FHA financing

FHA financing yields very different results, so I track both of these separately. The two main differences are the mortgage insurance and the lesser down payment. With FHA financing, I assume only 75% of the rent goes toward the loan payment, and the down payment is only 3.5%.

In the example above, the $2,500 rent yields only $1,875 toward a loan payment. At 4% interest, a $1,875 payment only services $392,740. Further, a 3.5% down payment means the borrower is only adding $14,244 to the loan balance. The resulting rental parity for an FHA buyer is only $404,984 instead of the $589,110 for the conventional buyer.

The added costs and smaller down payments make houses much less affordable for FHA borrowers than they are for conventional borrowers. It's the main reason Irvine and other move-up communities are maintaining higher prices while those communities dominated by FHA financing are experiencing more serious declines.

Data for buyers using conventional financing

The following two graphics show the state of house prices relative to rental parity for buyers using conventional financing in Irvine, CA. Notice that prices are the lowest relative to rental parity of any time over the last 11 years.

Nearly every zip code and Village in Irvine is at or below rental parity. The lone exceptions are the Villages in the 92603 zip code of Turtle Rock, Turtle Ridge, Quail Hill and Shady Canyon.

Data for buyers using FHA financing

The following two graphics show the state of house prices relative to rental parity for buyers using FHA financing in Irvine, CA. Prices for FHA buyers are still inflated, although the recent declines have put them at nine-year lows.

The FHA data may be a bit misleading because FHA insurance used to be much less expensive than it is today. Prices are still inflated for FHA buyers, but it may not have been quite as inflated a few years ago when FHA insurance was much more affordable.

Year-over-year percentage change

Real estate market exhibit strong seasonal patterns and a strong tendency to trend for long periods. The only way to gain an accurate understanding of what's happening in the market is to ignore the month-to-month fluctuations and focus on year-over-year changes.

Further, I prefer to look at data on a per-square-foot basis. The median is too susceptible to fluctuations based on the change of mix to be reliable. Looking at per-square-foot costs provides a more accurate picture of what buyers are obtaining for their money.

As you can see, prices are falling all over Irvine. On a per-square-foot basis, prices are down nearly 10% year-over-year, and they have been falling at that pace for the last 4 months. Much of the increase in affordability is explained by this decline in price.

The other factor which has improved the rental parity picture is a firming of rents over the last year. Rents stopped their decline in late 2010, and rents have been climbing at a slow but steady pace ever since.

The zip code showing the most weakness is still 92620 which is Northwood and Woodbury. Rents finally turned positive in the last two months after a year of steady declines.

The bottom line is that prices are falling, interest rates are falling and rents are rising. That combination of factors is making houses much more affordable, and this trend should continue through the winter until the season spring rally bumps prices up a bit.

Short-Sale and REO Workshop

Shevy Akason and Larry Roberts will host a short sale and REO workshop at 6:30 PM Wednesday, November 16, 2011, at the offices of Intercap Lending (9401 Jeronimo, Suite 200, Irvine, CA 92618).

Long term owners who went Ponzi

The previous owners of today's featured property bought so long ago their purchase is not on my database. Their taxable basis was $93,605 which suggests they likely bought in the 1970s. By 4/6/1999 they had increased their first mortgage to $169,600. They followed by refinancing a few times including a $343,000 HELOC on 6/21/2005 and a $270,000 mortgage on 8/28/2006. The bank took the property back on 2/14/2011 for $238,000. They did get to squat for a while…

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 12/01/2010

Document Type: Notice of Sale

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 08/12/2010

Document Type: Notice of Default

Foreclosure Record

Recording Date: 12/09/2010

Document Type: Notice of Default

Their loss is your gain

In real estate many times buyers profit at the expense of distressed or motivated sellers. The Ponzi who dumped this property on the bank is long gone, but now the bank has to deal with the property. Bank REO is, by definition, distressed property.

The point of this post is to demonstrate how affordable the combination of lower prices and low interest rates is having on affordability. Today's featured property is a 2,336 SF three bedroom two bath home with a monthly cost of ownership for a conventional buyer of $1,884. This house would certainly rent for much more than $1,884 per month.

——————————————————————————————————————————————-

This property is available for sale via the MLS.

Please contact Shevy Akason, #01836707

949.769.1599

sales@idealhomebrokers.com

Irvine House Address … 14772 DONCASTER Rd Irvine, CA 92604

Resale House Price …… $505,000

Beds: 3

Baths: 2

Sq. Ft.: 2336

$216/SF

Property Type: Residential, Single Family

Style: One Level, Traditional

Year Built: 1970

Community: El Camino Real

County: Orange

MLS#: S679315

Source: CRMLS

Status: Active

On Redfin: 2 days

——————————————————————————

BANK OWNED!!! New carpet and paint throughout. Great curb appeal, single level with lots of space for a growing family. Additional family room, dining room perfect for entertaining or easily converted to bedroom. Added wetbar. Mirrored wardrobe doors in master, nice fireplace in family room. Gated front courtyard. Close to schools, shopping and freeway. Excellent Irvine school district

——————————————————————————————————————————————-

Proprietary IHB commentary and analysis

Resale Home Price …… $505,000

House Purchase Price … $238,000

House Purchase Date …. 2/1/2011

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $236,700

Percent Change ………. 99.5%

Annual Appreciation … 93.8%

Cost of Home Ownership

————————————————-

$505,000 ………. Asking Price

$101,000 ………. 20% Down Conventional

4.06% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$404,000 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$96,218 ………. Income Requirement

$1,943 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$438 ………. Property Tax (@1.04%)

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$105 ………. Homeowners Insurance (@ 0.25%)

$0 ………. Private Mortgage Insurance

$0 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$2,486 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$316 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$576 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment (Amortization)

$144 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$146 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$1,884 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$5,050 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$5,050 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$4,873 ………. Interest Points

$17,675 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$32,648 ………. Total Cash Costs

$39,200 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$71,848 ………. Total Savings Needed

——————————————————————————————————————————————————-