In Los Angeles and Orange Counties, the conforming loan limit dropped from $729,750 to $625,000 on October 1, 2011. Many market bulls claimed this would have no effect on sales. In November sales of houses with loans between $625,000 and $729,750 declined 84% as compared to last November. So much for having no impact.

Home Address … 25 WILD Trl Irvine, CA 92618

Asking Price ……. $622,990

In other news, the falling prices are beginning to motivate some buyers as evidenced by the small increase in sales volume. Falling prices and increasing sales are prerequisite to forming a durable market bottom.

SoCal home sales rise on declining prices

Back in August when the lowering of the conforming limit was all but certain, Jaysen Gillespie a the Global Decision Analytics blog took a look at its impact: New lower conforming loan limit impact on Irvine, CA.

The above chart shows the distribution of home prices for all sales under $2M in Irvine, CA from 1/1/2010 through 7/31/2011. Irvine, CA is an expensive sub-market of an expensive region (Southern California). As a result, it is likely to feel any impact from lower conforming home limits more than most other places.

With that in mind, we’ve identified two potential price ranges that could be most impacted by the new limits. The green band represents homes that have selling prices where a 3.5% down payment represents a loan between the old limit ($729,000) and the new limit ($625,000). These properties represent 13.0% of all home sales in Irvine, CA. For the taxpayer’s sake, let’s hope that not many of the buyers in this price range are using only a 3.5% down payment. Those buyers are likely to be underwater soon as we predict continued downward drift in higher end home values in Southern California. These buyers represent one end of the spectrum.

On another point (but not the end, which would be “all cash” buyers) of the spectrum, we have buyers who put down 20%. At current Irvine, CA valuations, this is a substantial down-payment of around $170,000. For this level of royalty, we’ve used a purple band in the chart above. Using a 20% downpayment, 8.4% of sales in Irvine, CA would be impacted by the gap between the old and new conforming loan limits.

These are estimates — buyers in the green and purple bands have a few options. In order of long-term common sense for the buyer they are:

1. Pay less. Leverage seller fear that the loan limits really will reduce demand and correspondingly demand a lower price.

2. (tie) Put more down. Buy down the loan amount so that it becomes conforming.

2. (tie) Delay the purchase. The price-lowering impact from this change will be slight, but will occur over time. With an ongoing slow economy and prices above rental parity, there are no upward drivers for Irvine, CA home values.

3. Use “creative” financing. Pay the asking price but increase your monthly carrying cost for the term of the debt obligation.

As Jaysen noted, 20% of the Irvine market is impacted by the lowered limits, and that band just experienced an 84% decline in loan origination. No wonder prices are falling in the $700,000 to $900,000 price range.

New construction for $257/SF

New home sales in November fell to the lowest level recorded by DataQuick since it began keeping records in 1988. To ignite sales, KB Homes is lowering its price. Will it work?

——————————————————————————————————————————————-

This property is available for sale via the MLS.

Please contact Shevy Akason, #01836707

949.769.1599

sales@idealhomebrokers.com

Home Address … 25 WILD Trl Irvine, CA 92618

Asking Price ……. $622,990

Beds: 4

Baths: 3

Sq. Ft.: 2423

$257/SF

Property Type: Residential, Condominium

Style: Two Level

Year Built: 2011

Community: Portola Springs

County: Orange

MLS#: I11091805

Source: CRMLS

Status: Active

On Redfin: 156 days

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This is a brand new never been lived in home that is located in a beautiful master planned community. This beautiful 4 bedroom, 3 bathroom has many upgrades which include granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. This home is energy star qualified and comes with a 10 year limited warranty! This is a must see.

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Proprietary commentary and analysis

Asking Price ……. $622,990

Cost of Home Ownership

————————————————-

$622,990 ………. Asking Price

$124,598 ………. 20% Down Conventional

4.02% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$498,392 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$149,582 ………. Income Requirement

$2,385 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$540 ………. Property Tax (@1.04%)

$415 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$130 ………. Homeowners Insurance (@ 0.25%)

$0 ………. Private Mortgage Insurance

$394 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================

$3,864 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$552 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$716 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment (Amortization)

$174 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$98 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$2,869 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$6,230 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$6,230 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$4,984 ………. Interest Points

$124,598 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$142,042 ………. Total Cash Costs

$43,900 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$185,942 ………. Total Savings Needed

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The NAr finally came clean and admitted they misreported housing sales data for the last 5 years.

Home Address … 3492 PECAN St Irvine, CA 92606

Asking Price ……. $599,000

The National Association of realtors has a credibility problem. Everyone already distrusts them because the sales techniques they advocate rely on falsehood and manipulation to cajole buyers into closing deals. But their problems go deeper than that. The association provides market data which purportedly is objective, but it certainly appears as if they manipulate this data to make the market look stronger than it is. Is this an “honest” mistake? Back in February I noted that the National Association of realtors caught lying about home sales. I contended that “The NAr wanted to dupe buyers into thinking the market was stable to induce transactions that never would have gone through if buyers had known the truth.” Perhaps they were nefarious and just incompetent. Neither alternative speaks highly of them.

Data on sales of previously owned U.S. homes from 2007 through October this year will be revised down next week because of double counting, indicating a much weaker housing market than previously thought. The National Association of Realtors said a benchmarking exercise had revealed that some properties were listed more than once, and in some instances, new home sales were also captured.”All the sales and inventory data that have been reported since January 2007 are being downwardly revised. Sales were weaker than people thought,” NAR spokesman Walter Malony told Reuters.

Are they also retracting all their bullish — and completely erroneous — statements over the last few years based on their incorrect data? Are they offering refunds to the buyers who believed their false data and relied on it to make a buying decision? What responsibility do they bear for the decisions they induced others to make?

“We're capturing some new home data that should have been filtered out and we also discovered that some properties were being listed in more than one list.” The benchmark revisions will be published next Wednesday and will not affect house prices.Early this year, the Realtors group was accused of overcounting existing homes sales, with California-based real estate analysis firm CoreLogic claiming sales could have been overstated by as much as 20 percent. At the time, the NAR said it was consulting with a range of experts to determine whether there was a drift in its monthly existing home sales data and that any drift would be “relatively minor.”

Relatively minor? They blew their counts by 10% to 20%, and they consider that relatively minor? They could have pulled numbers out of the air and done a better job.

The depressed housing market is one of the key obstacles to strong economic growth and an oversupply of unsold homes on the market continues to stifle the sector. Malony said the Realtors group had developed a new model that would allow frequent benchmarking instead of waiting 10 years for the population Census data to revise their figures.

I don't care if they benchmark their data daily, they simply can't be trusted to do it right. The temptation to fudge the numbers to pump the market is just too great. Calculated Risk did a recent post on this issue, Lawler on NAR Revisions for 2007 through 2011.

From economist Tom Lawler: NAR to Release Existing Home Sales Revisions this Month The National Association of Realtors yesterday sent out a media advisory [announcing] that it would release its benchmark revisions to its existing home sales estimates on December 21st. Here is what the NAR sent out:

Although there are downward revisions for total sales in recent years, there is little change to previously reported monthly comparisons or characterizations based on percentage change. There is a comparable downward revision to unsold inventory, so there is no change to relative month’s supply. Also, there is no change to median home prices. An up-drift in sales projections developed over time between the fixed model for calculating sales rates and the actual marketplace, including growth in multiple listing service coverage areas, geographic population shifts, a decline in for-sale-by-owner transactions, some new-home sales trickling into MLS data and some individual sales being recorded in more than one MLS. Divergence of the data with other housing data metrics began in 2007, so revisions for 2007 through the present will be released. Normal annual revisions will be released with January existing-home sales on February 22, 2012. Those revisions are expected to be minor and will fine-tune the data back though 2007.

While the NAR did not hint at the magnitude of the downward revisions, the “consensus” is that 2010 existing home sales will be revised downward by about 13% or so (yup, there’s a “consensus” for everything!). … Many analysts were hoping that the NAR’s new methodology would be based on publicly recorded transactions, and apparently the NAR’s staff actually did explore this avenue. Rumor has it, however, that the new “benchmark” revisions will NOT be based on publicly recorded transactions – in part, apparently, because data coverage in many states is not comprehensive; data quality in many states/counties is poor; AND there are disparities among various private vendor estimates of sales based on publicly-recorded transactions. … Any approach, however, will result in a material reduction in estimated sales over the last few years – though the result will still be estimates and not actuals. CR Note: This was from economist Tom Lawler.

I don't buy their argument that the data cannot be based on public information. They could use the data available and extrapolate from that. If their baseline is better, their estimates will improve. I don't see how they could possible do worse; after all, they are off by more than 10% with their current methodology.

——————————————————————————————————————————————-

This property is available for sale via the MLS.

Please contact Shevy Akason, #01836707

949.769.1599

sales@idealhomebrokers.com

Home Address … 3492 PECAN St Irvine, CA 92606

Asking Price ……. $599,000

Beds: 3

Baths: 2

Sq. Ft.: 2639

$227/SF

Property Type: Residential, Single Family

Style: Two Level, Contemporary

Year Built: 1974

Community: Walnut

County: Orange

MLS#: P805415

Source: CRMLS

Status: Active

On Redfin: 7 days

——————————————————————————

2 story home features 3 bds and 3 bths. 2 car garage. Empty swimming pool may not functional. Need LOTS OF repairs inside and out.

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Proprietary commentary and analysis

Asking Price ……. $599,000

Purchase Price … $199,000

Purchase Date …. 9/22/1995

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $364,060

Percent Change ………. 182.9%

Annual Appreciation … 6.7%

Cost of Home Ownership

————————————————-

$599,000 ………. Asking Price

$119,800 ………. 20% Down Conventional

4.02% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$479,200 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$115,480 ………. Income Requirement

$2,293 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$519 ………. Property Tax (@1.04%)

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$125 ………. Homeowners Insurance (@ 0.25%)

$0 ………. Private Mortgage Insurance

$46 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$2,983 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$372 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$688 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment (Amortization)

$168 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$95 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$2,186 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$5,990 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$5,990 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$4,792 ………. Interest Points

$119,800 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$136,572 ………. Total Cash Costs

$33,500 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$170,072 ………. Total Savings Needed

——————————————————————————————————————————————————-

Mortgage delinquency rates will likely decline in 2012 as lenders foreclose and remove the loan from the delinquency pool. Unfortunately for lenders, the delinquency rate is expected to rise for the first quarter of 2012 as declining prices and a weak economy prompts more borrowers to strategically default.

Home Address … 9 PENNY Pnes Irvine, CA 92604

Asking Price ……. $569,000

2012 mortgage delinquencies seen dropping sharply

By Eileen Aj Connelly

NEW YORK – If the U.S. economy does not suffer more setbacks, the rate of mortgage holders behind on their payments should decline significantly by the end of next year, according to credit reporting agency TransUnion. Mortgage delinquency rates — the ratio of borrowers 60 or more days behind on their payments — will likely tick up to about 6% through the first three months of 2012, TransUnion said in its annual delinquency forecast issued Wednesday.

Did you notice I used a different headline than the reporter? Which is the bigger news story, the rise in delinquencies caused by the weak economy, or the projected decline later in the year? In my opinion, the fact that delinquencies are increasing is the bigger story. This reverses the trend of the last couple of years, and the forecast for a late year decline may or may not come to pass. What if the economy remains weak? Or what if the ongoing decline in prices induces more borrowers to strategically default? End late year drop which is the subject of the reporter's headline is by no means certain.

But by the end of next year, it could drop to 5%, TransUnion said. That's well off the peak of 6.89% seen in the fourth quarter of 2009. Chicago-based TransUnion's forecast takes into consideration several factors, including expectations that consumer confidence and the economy will improve next year.

This is a very important assumption, and it could easily be wrong. If consumer confidence does not increase, strategic default will become an even greater problem. Borrowers who are watching prices fall and who don't believe either house prices or the economy will be improving soon are far more likely to walk away, particularly for borrowers who are already underwater and paying more than a comparable rental.

Also, banks are expected to get a good portion of pending foreclosures off their books next year, said Charlie Wise, TransUnion director of research and consulting. … Economic uncertainty has also contributed. In the third quarter of 2011, mortgage delinquencies saw their first uptick in six quarters, largely fueled by concerns over the economy as lawmakers were debating the U.S. debt ceiling and Europe's debt crisis was unfolding.

This reporter does not know what he is talking about. Does he really think some borrower somewhere decided to quit paying their mortgage because of the European debt crisis? Macro issues do not prompt micro decisions.

Helping to cut the mortgage delinquency rate are a slowly improving job market and a stabilizing housing market.

The declining delinquency rate is actually a result of foreclosures wiping out non-performing mortgages, and the better loans being underwritten as lenders return to sane lending practices.

While the drop will be significant, the rate will remain well above the pre-recession average of 1.5% to 2%. “We have a long way to go to get back,” said Steven Chaouki, a TransUnion vice president. … Chaouki said the conventional wisdom before the Great Recession was that homeowners would put their mortgages first because of concern about their reputation and the emotional attachment involved in owning a home. But what has become clear as housing prices have continued to fall, he said, is that bill payment is far more practical.

“People were protecting their home equity,” he said. Credit cards were relatively easy to come by in years past, he said, so when money got tight, it was an easy decision to default on cards and maintain house payments. Now it's common to owe more on a mortgage than a house is actually worth, but credit cards are harder to get. So consumers are being practical and protecting what is more valuable to them. He said he expects the equation will shift again if housing prices rebound and people go back to building home equity.

Don't expect the situation to change any time soon as most loan owners are years away from having any equity. Delinquencies will likely decline in 2012, but not because borrowers will become current on delinquent mortgages. Increasing foreclosures will largely be responsible for any decline in delinquency rates. Expect foreclosure rates to increase in 2012.

This single-story three bedroom two bath home costs less than $2,100 per month to own. Situated across the street from the middle school and large central part in Deerfield, this property will probably sell quickly.

——————————————————————————————————————————————-

This property is available for sale via the MLS.

Please contact Shevy Akason, #01836707

949.769.1599

sales@idealhomebrokers.com

Home Address … 9 PENNY Pnes Irvine, CA 92604

Asking Price ……. $569,000

Beds: 3

Baths: 2

Sq. Ft.: 1900

$299/SF

Property Type: Residential, Single Family

Style: One Level, Traditional

Year Built: 1974

Community: El Camino Real

County: Orange

MLS#: S681611

Source: CRMLS

Status: Active

On Redfin: 7 days

——————————————————————————

Straight Sale-THIS IS AN EXPANDED ELKWOOD MODEL-A VERY LARGE COMBINATION FAMILY ROOM/OFFICE HAS BEEN ADDED-THE ADDITION GIVES THIS MODEL A FAMILY ROOM AND FULL DINING ROOM. Great location, on a quiet cul de sac with a private Park/Pools and Tot Lot at the end of the street. New careting in Living Room and Master suite. Real Wood Floors – Dramatic vaulted ceilings in many rooms – Two firplaces, Living Room and Dining Room – Smooth Ceilings – Newer Roof – Built-in Bookcases/Cabinets/Entertainment Center in Fam. Rm. Large Walk-in Closet in Master Suite – Garden Wuindow in Kitchen – Central Air Conditioning – Very private back yard – Ceramic tiled Atrium – This home is very ligjt and open. 5 Pools, Tennis, NEW state-of-the-art Deerfield Elementary School and Venado Middle School are both located in the Village of Deerfield.

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Proprietary commentary and analysis

Asking Price ……. $569,000

Purchase Price … $589,000

Purchase Date …. 12/2/2004

Net Gain (Loss) ………. ($54,140)

Percent Change ………. -9.2%

Annual Appreciation … -0.5%

Cost of Home Ownership

————————————————-

$569,000 ………. Asking Price

$113,800 ………. 20% Down Conventional

4.02% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$455,200 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$110,327 ………. Income Requirement

$2,178 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$493 ………. Property Tax (@1.04%)

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$119 ………. Homeowners Insurance (@ 0.25%)

$0 ………. Private Mortgage Insurance

$60 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$2,850 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$353 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$654 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment (Amortization)

$159 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$91 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$2,094 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$5,690 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$5,690 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$4,552 ………. Interest Points

$113,800 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$129,732 ………. Total Cash Costs

$32,000 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$161,732 ………. Total Savings Needed

——————————————————————————————————————————————————-

Us Too Gymnastics

My son goes to a gymnastics center for special needs children. I think they do great work. There is a contest where they can get a free spot on Monday Night football if enough people “like” them on Facebook.

If you would be so kind as to click on this link, scroll to the bottom and vote for Us Too Gymnastics, it could help provide funding for a sports program for special needs children. It won't cost you anything, and you can do something very good for a deserving child. Thank you for your support.

In a recent report Chapman University's Anderson Center for Economic Research said, “More problematic is the inventory of unsold homes. Not only are there still too many unsold housing units in the market, there are a large number of homes in the foreclosure process that will keep the supply of resale housing units at an elevated level.”

Home Address … 42 IDYLLWILD #55 Irvine, CA 92602

Asking Price ……. $399,900

They are projecting the median sales prices will remain flat. In this same report last year, Chapman blew it and projected an increase in the median sales price. The supply problems that caused their forecast to fail in 2011 became the reasoning for a more bearish forecast in 2012. Better late than never.

In my post on January 1, 2011, Predictions for 2011, I made the following predictions:

Basically, my outlook for 2011 is unchanged from 2010. (1) Inventory will go up. (2) Properties selling at or below rental parity will be the norm. (3) Sales volumes will increase. (4) Prices in Irvine will fall 2% to 5% in 2011.

I was right on all four points, and my first point, “Inventory will go up” is precisely what Chapman failed to recognize last year.

Chapman: No home price gain for 2012

December 7th, 2011 — posted by Jeff Collins

Forecasters at Chapman University predict that Orange County home prices will stop falling in 2012. That’s the good news, considering that home prices here have done nothing but that in 2011. But prices won’t go up much either. In fact, they’ll be virtually flat, with no more than a 0.2% gain.

So does this mean they are calling a bottom? Or is this a chickenshit forecast which could be interpreted either way? I think it's overly optimistic to believe prices won't decline further, particularly since we know lenders are increasing their foreclosure. Next year's spring rally will be greeted with an abundance of REOs. The only real question is whether or not the number of REOs pushes prices a lot lower or a little lower.

“Our forecast calls for the median selling price of a single-family unit … (to) remain flat in Orange County in 2012,” the forecast from the school’s A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research stated. “More problematic is the inventory of unsold homes,” the report said further. “Not only are there still too many unsold housing units in the market, there are a large number of homes in the foreclosure process that will keep the supply of resale housing units at an elevated level.” Of course, forecasting is a tough business. Last year, Chapman forecasters said prices would go up. They went down.

Oops. The problem with running complex econometric models and calling it forecasting is that these models all fail to account for the unusual or uncommon. We have never had a huge nationwide housing bubble before. The forecasters have never modeled what happens when banks foreclose on millions of homes. Of course, the weaknesses of econometric modelling does not excuse forecasters for missing the obvious. The model should be a point of departure from which a good forecaster can adjust the findings based on a subjective interpretation of the unique circumstances of the day. Given the obvious problems with foreclosures and delinquencies, forecasting a drop in prices in 2011 wasn't rocket science.

Among the highlights of this year’s housing forecast:

• The index value of an existing single-family home is expected to rise to 219.5, with 100 equal to 1990’s base value. That’s up 0.2% from 219.1 this year.

• This time last year, Chapman predicted that house prices would be up 3.3% in 2011. The university now project’s that the 2011 price will end the year down 5.1% from 2010 levels.

I predicted prices would be down between 2% and 5% in 2011. I was off by 0.1% as prices overshot my downside range.

• By comparison, California house prices are projected to drop 2.5% next year, following a 5.9% decrease estimated for 2011.
• The decrease in home sales has occurred despite historic high levels of housing affordability. A homebuyer earning the median family income in O.C. would need to spend 28.2% of his or her paycheck on housing at today’s prices. That compares to the need to spend 46.6% of the monthly earnings on housing back in 2006.

A 28.2% DTI is affordable, particularly by OC standards. If anything were to make the market strengthen next year, it is the tremendous affordability brought about by 4% interest rates.

The continued downturn in housing is putting a damper on the overall economic recovery, the forecast said. “The sharp drop in home prices is the main culprit (for slow job growth), leading to a very weak recovery,” it said. “With high inventory of unsold homes and high commercial real estate vacancy rates, construction spending nosedived.” The forecast also predicted that Orange County employers will hire more than 21,000 new workers next year, an improvement over 2011, but it won’t immediately turn the economy around, Register staff writer Mary Ann Milbourn reported. To read the full report on Chapman’s overall economic outlook, CLICK HERE!

Next year will be more of the same. House prices will continue to drop, particularly at the high end, and the economy will be weak, albeit improved over 2011.

This pending sale at $233/SF in Irvine represents a 35% drop from the peak. If 2006 construction starts selling for the low $200/SF, what hope does the rest of Irvine have? How is the Irvine Company supposed to get $400/SF for its new construction? What does that do to the value of older houses?

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This property is available for sale via the MLS.

Please contact Shevy Akason, #01836707

949.769.1599

sales@idealhomebrokers.com

Home Address … 42 IDYLLWILD #55 Irvine, CA 92602

Asking Price ……. $399,900

Beds: 2

Baths: 2

Sq. Ft.: 1500

$267/SF

Property Type: Residential, Condominium

Style: One Level, Contemporary

Year Built: 2003

Community: Northpark

County: Orange

MLS#: S680830

Source: CRMLS

Status: Active

On Redfin: 15 days

——————————————————————————

Nice lower level single story home facing greenbelt. Corner lot location in gated Northpark Square. Open layout with laminate flooring, 2 car attached garage, greenbelt views and good size patio off master. Newer construction and appeal. Great opportunity to own in desirable community near Beckman High School.

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Proprietary commentary and analysis

Asking Price ……. $399,900

Purchase Price … $562,000

Purchase Date …. 5/26/2006

Net Gain (Loss) ………. ($186,094)

Percent Change ………. -33.1%

Annual Appreciation … -5.9%

Cost of Home Ownership

————————————————-

$399,900 ………. Asking Price

$13,997 ………. 3.5% Down FHA Financing

4.02% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$385,904 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$120,832 ………. Income Requirement

$1,847 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$347 ………. Property Tax (@1.04%)

$100 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$83 ………. Homeowners Insurance (@ 0.25%)

$444 ………. Private Mortgage Insurance

$301 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$3,121 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$287 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$554 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment (Amortization)

$20 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$70 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$2,370 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$3,999 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$3,999 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$3,859 ………. Interest Points

$13,997 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$25,854 ………. Total Cash Costs

$36,300 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$62,154 ………. Total Savings Needed

——————————————————————————————————————————————————-

The median home price for single-family detached homes, excluding condos and new construction, was down a whopping 9% over the last 12 months. As a sign that prices are still far too high, sales volumes are still more than 20% off their historic norms. The housing market will not bottom until prices get low enough to entice buyers to clean up the mess the banks made. The distressed properties must be taken from those who cannot afford them and resold to buyers who can. Foreclosure and short sale are the most likely paths forward as loan modifications have generally failed miserably. In the meantime, prices continue to fall.

Home Address … 104 MILLBROOK Irvine, CA 92618

Asking Price ……. $650,000

O.C. median home price slumps 6%

December 9th, 2011, 1:06 pm — posted by Jon Lansner

Highlights of DataQuick’s Orange County homebuying report. For the 22 business days ending November 23 — the latest numbers — Orange County’s real estate market saw …

• Median selling price for all residences of $408,000 — that is off 6.3% vs. a year ago.
• Total Orange County sales of 2,647 residences closed in the latest period — that is off down 0.2% vs. a year ago.
• When broken down by sales volume by price segment, the priciest Orange County ZIPs had sales up 10.5% vs. a year ago. Meanwhile, sales of homes in middle-priced ZIPs were off 4.7% vs. a year ago. As for the bottom third of ZIPs by pricing? Sales off 0.5% vs. a year ago.

The increase in sales rate at high-end zip codes is a direct result of lenders finally moving to sell their REO. This increase in sales volumes is coming off very low sales levels. As banks increase their discounting to find the market, high-end asking prices continue to drop, and sales prices are falling precipitously.

• Note: 9 of 83 Orange County ZIPs had both rising sales and prices in the period. Is your ZIP one of those neighborhoods? To see, CLICK HERE!

Here’s the breakdown of recent activity by key category; included is how the latest results compare to the average monthly sales pace from 1988 through 2010:

Slice	Price	Price vs. year ago	Sales	Sales vs. year ago	Sales vs. ’88-’10 avg.
Houses	$455,000	-9.0%	1,756	+3.2%	-22.2%
Condos	$265,000	-7.0%	738	+3.5%	-14.3%
New	$566,000	-4.1%	153	-35.2%	-70.9%
All O.C.	$408,000	-6.3%	2,647	-0.2%	-27.4%

And more analysis …

• $408,000 median selling price is 37% below June 2007′s peak of $645,000.
• Current price is 9.3% below 2010′s peak (May and July) of $450,000; 0% below end of 2010′s median ($410,000.)
• The most recent median is 10% above the cyclical low hit in January 2009 at $370,000 — so the median has recouped 14% of the $275,000 price drop from the peak.

It bears repeating that the drop in the median in 2009 was artificially low due to the change in sales mix. Very little was selling at the high end while condo were being cleared out as subprime REO. More accurate indicators of the change in value of individual homes is the Case-Shiller index or the $/SF. Both of those indicators show the market at new lows.

• Compared to cyclical low, single-family house median is 9% higher ($418,250 in January 2009); condo median is 5% higher ($252,000 in March 2009.) Builder prices for new homes are 33% above June 2009′s $424,000 bottom.
• The median selling price of a single-family home is 38% less than their peak pricing (June ’07). Condos sell 44% below their peak in March 2006. Builder prices for new homes are 34% below their February ’05 top.
• Single-family homes were 72% more expensive than condos in this period vs. 75% a year ago. From 1988-2010, the average house/condo gap was 57%.

Yet another sign of lower prices to come at the high end. The premium for detached is well above its historic norms. Either condo prices have to go up, or detached house prices need to go down. The latter is the more likely scenario.

• Builder’s new homes sales were 6% of all residences sold in the period vs. 9% a year ago. From 1988-2010, builders did 14% of the Orange County homeselling.

The Irvine Company isn't selling much because their prices are too high. They have targeted the weakest part of the market as the lack of move-up equity and a weak economy make their houses unaffordable.

When will the crash end?

The good news for the market is that lower prices, low interest rates, and firming rents is making home ownership much more attractive to potential buyers. In most markets in Orange County, prices are at or below rental parity. Affordability is at record highs in many locations. Of course, prices are still dropping, and many buyers will sit on the sidelines knowing they will either save money on a future purchase or obtain a better house for the money they spend. Deflation psychology is keeping many of the depleted buyer pool from buying homes. It should. Until the monthly cost of ownership declines enough to entice renters to take the leap, prices will continue to fall.

$314,000 in mortgage equity withdrawal

The owners of today's featured property clearly believed prices would rise forever. Over the course of six years, they refinanced their home seven times pulling out more and more equity. Since this is being sold as a fixer, it is safe to assume they didn't spend much of this money on the house. They ended their journey with a $640,000 Option ARM and a $38,000 HELOC in 2007. Falling prices cut off the Ponzi borrowing. No NOD has been filed on this property, so it's impossible to tell if they are still making payments. If not, this is an example of shadow inventory. Given that it is being marketed as a short sale, I doubt they're making any payments.

The loudest and most polluted house in Oak Creek

This house is located in the extreme southeast corner of Oak Creek adjacent to the interchange at the 5 and Sand Canyon. Having lived in Oak Creek more than 200 yards further away from the freeway, I can attest to how loud it can be. With the extra exhaust from cars accelerating to enter the freeway and the nearby power lines, this isn't my first choice for an Irvine home. It can be yours for only $700,000. I think I will pass.

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This property is available for sale via the MLS.

Please contact Shevy Akason, #01836707

949.769.1599

sales@idealhomebrokers.com

Home Address … 104 MILLBROOK Irvine, CA 92618

Asking Price ……. $650,000

Beds: 4

Baths: 2

Sq. Ft.: 2079

$313/SF

Property Type: Residential, Single Family

Style: Two Level, Other

Year Built: 2001

Community: Oak Creek

County: Orange

MLS#: S680823

Source: CRMLS

Status: Active

On Redfin: 14 days

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End of Cul de Sac single family detached home in Oak Creek. 4 Bedrooms, 2.5 Bathrooms, 2 car attached garage, 2 story home with upgrades. L shaped backyard with BBQ island. Gated community of Kelsey Lane. Upstairs laundry. Kitchen has granite counters and island. Property has unfinished repairs and needs some work. This is a short sale.

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Proprietary commentary and analysis

Asking Price ……. $650,000

Purchase Price … $364,500

Purchase Date …. 4/13/2001

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $246,500

Percent Change ………. 67.6%

Annual Appreciation … 5.4%

Cost of Home Ownership

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$650,000 ………. Asking Price

$130,000 ………. 20% Down Conventional

4.02% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$520,000 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$135,496 ………. Income Requirement

$2,489 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$563 ………. Property Tax (@1.04%)

$233 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$135 ………. Homeowners Insurance (@ 0.25%)

$0 ………. Private Mortgage Insurance

$80 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

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$3,500 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$403 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$747 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment (Amortization)

$182 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$101 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

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$2,634 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

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$6,500 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$6,500 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$5,200 ………. Interest Points

$130,000 ………. Down Payment

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$148,200 ………. Total Cash Costs

$40,300 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

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$188,500 ………. Total Savings Needed

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