The End — John Clinebell
Today’s featured song was sent by a local musician who is an avid reader of the blog. I bet you can guess his name…
The crash at the end of a speculative bubble can be brutal. So far, the price decline in Irvine has been measured and orderly compared to the drops in less desirable markets. I was recently looking at properties in the Palm Springs market, and I found some of the new neighborhoods that were the carnage is simply breathtaking. Check out some of these listings at around 50% off their new home sales price of 2 years ago:
41213 Doyle St Indio,
CA 92203 — Original Price: $468,500 — Asking Price:
$232,750
82952 Plymouth Dr Indio,
CA 92203 — Original Price: ? — Asking Price:
$243,000
41425 Hanover St Indio,
CA 92203 — Original Price: $455,500 — Asking Price:
$249,900
I could list more, but I think you get the point. The Palm Springs market may have some chance of recovery as baby boomers may want to go here when they begin to retire soon. If you want to see carnage in a market that is not likely to recover any time soon, take a look at Hemet/San Jacinto:
1711 Steinbeck Ave San Jacinto,
CA 92583 — Original Price: $442,500 — Asking Price:
$179,000
761 Salinger Pl San Jacinto,
CA 92583 — Original Price: $363,500 — Asking Price: $199,900
The interesting thing about all of these properties is that they are selling for less than replacement cost. With asking prices around $85/SF, that is the cost of construction of the box itself. Even if the lots were free, a builder could not build and sell a house on it and make any money. There will be no new construction in these markets until prices rise above replacement costs, and then it will only occur on already finished lots selling at an extreme discount. There will be no new development or construction of finished lots until prices rise back above $130/SF. That is about 50% above current values. As you can see, replacement cost does not put a floor below prices. Ultimately, the lack of new construction will create a shortage, and prices will rise due to supply constraints (assuming the financing is available). However, since we overbuilt in many of these fringe markets, it will take some time to absorb all the existing inventory.
.
stacked behind the door
are the photographs of yours.
in the basket
down the hall
there’s a soccer shirt that i borrowed.
the end isn’t the
end.
the end isn’t the end of this.
picking out the darkened hair
from
each and every happy moment.
i’ve come to terms that have been laid
bare,
quiet sleeping angels in my bed.
the end isn’t the
end.
the end isn’t the end of this.
so don’t you disappoint yourself
again,
you’ll be back home..
you disappoint yourself
again,
you’ll be back home..
you disappoint yourself
again,
you’ll be back home..
before too long..
these discussions with
myself,
the kinds of things that don’t tend to help.
pacing back and
forth with my guitar,
looking way up high on a shelf.
The End — John Clinebell
I wonder what kind of rent it can fetch on the property of $180k in San Jacinto today? Where are the rental investors?
There is absolutely no reason a builder needs to build a 3,000 sq ft monstrosity in the middle of the desert.
Where do you put the amphetamine factory or marijuana farm in 900 sq ft?
Actually if you look at some properties in San Bernadino and Riverside, discount has reached above 60%. http://housing-kaboom.blogspot.com/2008/08/70-year-over-year-decline.html
Sacramento is a total carnage http://flippersintrouble.blogspot.com/
My friend actually brought a brochure for Texas where they had new homes for sale 3000 SF for around $130,000 in the suburbs of Hustan, making it $43/SF. I cant imagine how anyone could sell for that less. There are lots of bargains out there, but the problem is there are not enough buyers who can actually qualify and not enough banks who will lend. We are at the tip of seeing the higher side of the market getting hammered.
I am sure Irvine will surpass 60% loss easily from the peak. Home values in Ladera Ranch for example actually trippled from 2001 to 2006, so for it to come down to real value once its said and done, 60% discount will stil leave equity in the house. It is amazing that falling home prices are outpacing peoples savings rate my multiples. So, in the essence, you are saving your own $$ as cash plus $$ from falling prices if you are on the sidelines. I will pick something towards the end of 2009 or early 2010.
Sure, tell that to 90602, the worst performing Irvine zip code. Current asking is $370/sq ft avg.
http://www.redfin.com/search#v=3&lat=33.740977553060965&long;=-117.75591029453624&zoomLevel=12®ion_id=38398®ion_type=2&market=socal
Disclaimer: not a bull on RE.
I’m not that familiar with Cal real estate but I have lived in Houston and have friends and family there. You can get a 3000 SF for $130k but the quality of construction would be horrible. It would also be in a neighborhood of similar homes where 80% of them are in foreclosure. For a reasonably well built 3000 SF you’d need to spend about $200 to $225k.
In the DFW area the majority (85%) of foreclosures are homes in the range of $0 to $180K. These homes are definitely cheap compared to Cal real estate but most of the buyers probably weren’t very financially sophisticated and had ARMs. I don’t think HELOCs are a big problem in Texas.
I am mystified by the Indio market. Exactly how poverty-stricken in your retirement would you have to be to live there, even at these prices? Terrible heat 6 months of the year, dreadful air pollution most of the year, absolutely no cultural opportunities and absolutely minimal urban amenities (I mean, Indio doesn’t even have very good supermarkets — I guess you could drive up the freeway and play blackjack at the casino). The subdivisions shown are unattractive, the homes poorly designed and unimaginative (and one shudders to think of the construction issues that will show up). What on earth were people thinking? I’m not sure there’s a price low enough to market these, and the boarding-up on the first listing is probably just the first stage of crumbling back into the desert. This makes Phoenix and its suburbs look like paradise.
Phoenix actually is a great place to live. Though I could see why sophisticated Californians could find it confusing to find themselves saddled with booming economies, great communities, beautiful weather, terrific golf, good schools, REPUBLICAN government, and a pool in the huge back yard of their large 4BR house.
Hey, you know, I recall one of those Western states actually had a NEGATIVE caucasian immigration rate….hmmm, if only I could remember which one it was… Oh well, must have been that hell hole, Arizona, because everyone loves California.
The IE has nothing in common with the OC. It is false to make comparisons to Irvine.
Irvine is not Corona or Norco. For if Irvine had cows, they would be the happy cheese kind. Their shit would not stink, and they would all drive to the corner mini mall and eat frozen yougart, made from goat’s milk, of course.
Irvine had cows less than a decade ago.
Seriously, Hemet/San Jacinto is a retirement area too. But I was wondering the same thing myself, IR — how does OC avoid get wet, when a tidal wave is crashing next door? This is a pretty good indicator of what is going to be happening here. OC == (IE)x2 == $350k jumbo houses in Irvine. There will be much wailing, beating of breasts, and gnashing of teeth.
Calling Indio part of the Palm Springs market would be like direct comparison between ghastly Garbage Grove and snooty wanna-be pretentious Irvine.
As more construction jobs are lost, is it possible that construction wages will decrease, thereby decreasing replacement costs?
Since you are bringing up Hemet and San Jacinito here are a few fun facts.
One might say that San Jacinito is a suburb of Hemet as all the business are in Hemet. San Jacinito has a few (<3) small strip malls. San Jacinito has a lot of nice new developments that are going for $65 sq ft!! Look it up in Zillow, ouch!! Oh and they built them and heavy as they are all underwater. And that is driving the housing prices down in Hemet and the surrounding smaller cities. Even Moreno Valley is seeing housing at $85 per sq ft. Riverside is starting to see $100 per sq ft. Someone mentioned a tidal wave heading for the OC. Yes the IE wave is fast approaching the OC and once it breaches the Santa Ana Canyon watch out!
A 2br/1.75 bath, 900 sq ft house in Hemet for the 55+ crowd is renting for $650-700 a month. Oh a good rental for the retirement crowd is a single story home. Funny I can't understand why an older person would not want to climb stairs? It's good a good cardio excerise routine! 🙂 Oh and they all have small dogs as well.
Great song, John!
lambcannon is correct, Indio may be physically close to Palm Springs but it is about as much like it as Desert Hot Springs (a real s%^&hole;of a town).
This site’s focus on Irvine is one reason why analysis goes so deep, but this broadening of the focus to grab some context makes me shudder–a 60 percent loss of value, even when that value was never real, is just incredible.
Incredible. 22 Daffodil 92618 (2bd/2bth) was short selling itself for $360k and it got sold for $452k.
Either the new owner is a knife catcher or there must be fraudulent activity going on.
So much for Irvine RE price dropping further.
Obviously building costs vary with market conditions. Expect labor to drop with a rise in unemployment. Materials are unclear… rising inflation vs falling demand = ?
I think replacement cost may only be relevent for insurance purposes. Look at the near worthless mansions in many urban areas. Replacement cost has no bearing on their value IMO.
BTW builders will NEVER return to many of these markets for reasons given by IR.
Due to demographic trends, many areas are permanently overbuilt.