Well, way up North where the air gets cold
There’s a tale about Christmas that you’ve all been told
A real famous cat all dressed up in red
And he spends the whole year workin’ out on his sled.
It’s the little Saint Nick
little Saint Nick
It’s the little Saint Nick
little Saint Nick
Just a little bobsled, we call it Old Saint Nick
But she’ll walk a tobogan with a four speed stick
She’s candy apple red with a ski for a wheel
And when Santa hits the gas, man, just watch her peel.
Little Saint Nick — Beach Boys
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Today’s property was purchased on 10/16/2006 for $869,000 and sold at auction on 9/27/2007 for $682,763. These are not asking prices, these are actual transaction amounts. That is a 21.4% loss in less than one year, and that is not including any transaction costs.
Asking Price: $739,900
Income Requirement: $184,750
Downpayment Needed: $147,800
Purchase Price: $682,763
Purchase Date: 9/27/2007
Address: 12 Apple Valley, Irvine, CA 92602
Beds: 4
Baths: 3
Sq. Ft.: 2,150
$/Sq. Ft.: $344
Lot Size: –
Type: Single Family Residence
Style: Other
Year Built: 2000
Stories: Two Levels
Area: Northpark
County: Orange
MLS#: S514361
Status: Active
On Redfin: 9 days
From Redfin, “Charming home in guard gated community of Northpark!! Main floor master suite with large oval tub, enclosed shower, and dual sinks. Upstairs bedrooms with walk-in closets. Kitchen with breakfast bar plus seperate dining room. Spacious laundry room with deep sink and cabinets. Nice patio in side yard. The many association amenities iclude pool, spa, barbeque, sport court, tennis and more. Close to parks, golf, dining, and shopping at The Market Place”
Only two exclamation points? The realtor must not be excited enough about this listing for the standard three exclamation points.
seperate, iclude… I routinely misspell separate, but then again, I take the time to use a spell checker…
.
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From the ownership records, it is not clear if this is an REO or a flip. The new owner is an LLC suggesting it might be a flip attempt, but the low asking price relative to the purchase price suggests this LLC may have been formed as the REO holding entity. In either case, the 21.4% loss may actually get larger. In a normal foreclosure situation, the first mortgage holder, who usually has an 80% loan against the property, will go to auction and bid the loan amount. If they are the highest bidder (lately they have been the only bidders,) they end up with the property. The price may need to fall further to find the real market. If this property sells for less than its purchase price, it really reflects a larger loss on the original sale.
In a small market correction, a property such as this one that comes up for sale at an auction generally does not go back to the bank. Since the bank is only going to bid 80% of the original purchase price (the amount of the first mortgage,) there is usually someone who thinks the property is worth more than what the bank is willing to bid and buys the property. The bank does not care because they got their loan money back, and if the speculator is correct, they can make a few dollars in the deal. You know the market is in bad shape when banks bid 80% of original purchase price and get the property. You know the market is in really bad shape when nobody even bids against the bank (which has been happening regularly.)
So where is the Irvine market right now? 15% to 20% off the peak. We have documented numerous cases of properties with asking prices 15% -20% off the peak, and today’s property is a recorded sale at 21% off the peak. It is hard to argue with the data.
This has been another eventful week at the Irvine Housing Blog. We had two days of well over 100 comments in a lively conversation. Come back again next week as we continue to Chronicle ‘the seventh circle of real estate hell.’
I want to leave you this week with a picture of me — at least how some of the bitter homedebtors see me.
Sayonara, fake equity.
Real prices always return, regardless of what the idiots tell you. Look for 50% off soon.
—–
I LOVE IT!
Another mortgage company gets screwed because they loaned money to a borrower who couldn’t repay.
From Wikipedia:
“Moral hazard is the prospect that a party insulated from risk may behave differently than it would if it were fully exposed to the risk.”
I guess the RISK has reappeared in a major way!
Take a gander at those monthly homeowner dues on top of debt service, property taxes and insurance. North of $250. Wow.
Re: photo of you. Nice. Needs an open bottle of booze beside the mouse though.
Supposing you actually have the money for the down payment, you’re looking at a monthly mortgage payment of almost 4200.00 including the HOA junk dues.
Ouch.
Better hope the wife doesn’t lose her second job and that walmart is hiring door greeters when you reach retirement age.
It’s an SFR but they wont list the lot size. Is that last pic the side yard? Maybe the back yard is only a few feet deep?
I kinda like the curb appeal although I would like a different color.
So it sold for 355k in 2000, so I think it should be worth 455k today. Assoc dues of $253….no thanks! I pay assoc dues where I live, but I get water, sewer, trash and gardening along with the pool etc.
50% easily. This place is worth 200K maybe in a sane market.
In AZ, we’ve been hearing about California’s inflated house prices well before the year 2000.
We had relatives leave town in the mid to late 90’s with a boatload of cash for their house which they used to pay in full on a house out of state.
I would not use year 2000 prices as the bottom. Most likely 1997-1998.
What’s the point of buying a detached place if you gotta pay HOA? Legalized extortion.
Yard? It backs directly to the street behind it.
http://maps.live.com/#JnE9eXAuMTIrQXBwbGUrVkxZKyUyYytJcnZpbmUlMmMrQ0ErOTI2MDIlN2Vzc3QuMCU3ZXBnLjEmYmI9NTcuMDQwNzI5ODM4MzYwOSU3ZS0zOS43MjY1NjI1JTdlMTcuMzkyNTc5MjcxMDU3OCU3ZS0xMTAuNzQyMTg3NQ==
So basically you have a house that occupies the entire lot and any time you need to go out and stretch your legs you need to go into a shared area. Did you ever watch one of those reality shows about the lifers in prison who are confines 23 hours a day? Even they get more room out of their cells than can be found on the “patio”.
Don’t be so pessimistic.
The HOA works very hard. Who else is going to put chlorine in the pool, hire illegals to mow the lawn, and leave violation notices for you when you leave a box in your garage that can be seen by someone driving by.
That’s totally worth 250 a month to me.
Thanks for the map link. Wow, I am reeally confused.
Is this and SFR? It looks like it is attached to another unit, or are my eyes deceiving me. Now, I did notice in the listing details that it says it has one common wall.
Anyone want to clarify this?
Anyway, woooh, no lot at all in either case. Backing to an alley….this really should not be and SFR.
I know for a fact that your ears are not that long.
No, we bought a smaller place in Orange (a nice but less desirable city) 10 years ago at the bottom of the California market cycle. Estimating from my price/sq ft and applying premiums for inflation, size, and an Irvine location, this place should be worth about 400K at the bottom of the cycle and 600K at the top. If 30 year rates stay at 6%, you can tack on another 20%. That actually would make this a passable asking price for top of the cycle at these rates, although not a good buy, because, well, top of the cycle. 50% is too much.
What happens if the bank does not bid at the courthouse auction? What if the highest bid was $600,000? Why does the bank bid the loan amount? Why don’t they let it go for the $600,000? Or do they start the bidding at the loan amount? It seems to me the bank would want to be rid of the property and the best way of doing that would be to let it go for market price on the courthouse steps. What am I missing?
In PA today you are in the grip of a second snowstorm in a week. Don’t lie to me… my wife is in Ohio this week. It’s frickin’ cold according to her.
Our low here was 40 degrees last night. I noted a bit of frost on some roofs.
Brrr…..
Now, what were you saying about RE prices again?
on the courthouse steps, it’s CASH. all cash. not many homebuyers have 20% for the DP, let alone 100% on the courthouse steps.
I totally agree.
This is NOT A single family RESIDENCE.
This is a TOWNHOME.
$344 per sq ft for a townhome? even in irvine, this is ridiculous.
You’re assuming the bust 10 yrs ago will not be that much different than the bust coming upon us now.
The boom was far, far higher than anything previously seen.
The future bust will be devastating compared to the last one.
This one was an REO with EMC. The other property in the area that was taken back by EMC around 88 is 187 Rhapsody, now listed for 759.
400K, we’re talking almost a half a million dollars for an average home??? Wow.
This house will never fall to $200K AZ. Maybe it’s worth that in some other city, but not in the Northpark area of Irvine. It is very well located (yes yes tonye, I know it’s northeast of the 5 but still), has good amenities, good schools, guards at the gate, etc. This is a nicely done area of Irvine nestled up against the foothills. A 2800sf SFR in this neighborhood is in escrow for over $1M. A 2400sf SFR in this area sold for over $900K recently. Market value today (i.e. knife catcher price) is likely in the high $600s. The furthest it will drop will be to $350-400K or so.
The term nowadays for it Mr. Vincent is “paired home”. It shares one common wall with another residence.
It is very like the one IR featured recently on Autumn.
“….. nestled up against the foothills” huh huh uhhhhhh..he said “nestled”
Love your picture IR.
Anybody know anything about Vail. The idiot brother in law of my best client who is embroiled in so many lawsuits (not with me as atty, thank the goddess) and so much cr*p that you could write several novels about it is proposing to spend money to fix up a Vail property and then sell it. (They are not making any more views like that. . . )
21% off is a very questionable number for this property!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I looked at the sale history for 12 Apple Valley in the MLS Database and found the following information:
1. Home was listed on 8/21/06 for $819K
**Condition: Very poor – I peviewed this property while it was on the market for sale.
2. Home was closed on 10/16/06 for $869K
**Lender: Homefield Financial for both 1st ($695,200) and 2nd ($173,800) —-> 100% financing.
3. Home was listed for lease on 11/1/2006
**Owner was an investor.
4. Home became REO on 9/27/07
**Borrower probably skipped the very first payment.
So one ought to wonder if it even possible for anyone to want to pay $50K above asking price for a poor condition home.
Many many REOs featured on this blog had similar profile as this one.
HOAs don’t work hard, but they do serve a purpose. They spend every nickel or save it for future repairs/maintenance… Mine recently had all the common driveways and streets slurry sealed so they look all nice and new. Many of the streets in Irvine are private, not public, so the HOAs are responsible for their maintenance. Some of what we pay HOAs would normally go toward property taxes. Had some ground shift and it started to take out a block wall. Who got it fixed, the HOA. Had a common area tree root system start undermining someone’s patio, who got it fixed, the HOA. HOAs often do the dirty work and get things done that could take regular owners a long time to work out. Fence is broken or needs painting. This can often be a problem between two owners. Who takes care of it, the HOA.
I pay $150 per month between two associations and I am glad I do. I hear the landscape maintenance company guys mowing and blowing right now as a matter of fact. Our HOA spent over $3K on a holiday party last weekend. Thought it was a great use of funds – catered in, tented out, booze, tunes, had 100+ people show up to enjoy the festivities. So in this case, the HOA is helping to develop a since of community in the neighborhood. That is something that is sorely missing in many Irvne neighborhoods IMO so it’s good that HOAs help in that regard.
lawyerliz,
The estate of the late Ken Lay of the late Enron Corp. has one that already has granite! appliances!! and a BBQ pit!!! for sale there for a few mil.
IR,
I know you are a saver…but no flat screen LCD?
Must have slipped into realtor-speak!
I understand it is cash, but what I want to know is why does the bank always bid at the amount it has in, (the loan amount)? Why doesn’t the bank just let the property go for whatever folks bid it to on the courthouse steps? Why does the bank think they can get more by listing it?
I have mixed emotions about the HOAs. Yes, I agree that they do serve a purpose. Having been in neighborhoods without them where less-than-desirable neighbors tend to co-habitate.
I just resent the constant nickle and diming each year and the stupid things they nit-pick about. My apartment complex is able to afford the illegal alien labor, pool chlorine without nickle and diming us each year and harping about “increased costs” like the HOAs always do.
150.00 seems like too much (but still low compared to some that I’ve seen).
I lived in Vail for a season when I was 18.
I would be really surprised to see this place stop declining at 350K. I don’t see what is so special about it that you do, but being that you know the area better you may be able to call it better.
First payment default fraud? Sure sounds like it. If that is the case, it can be fairly argued this was not a market purchase and the 21% drop does not represent the market. I can’t help wondering how many legitimate transactions used this as a comp?
Ok Tonye I’ll bite.
I won’t lie about our weather. Our daytime HIGHS here in ID have been under 30 for almost 2 weeks! We got another inch of snow last night with 2-4 coming tonight. We have a huge ice rink in the back yard that the wife and kids built. Hopefully the plow won’t come by until tomorrow morning so the kids, their friends, and I can do some sledding in the street tonight. We will probably sit in the spa tonight, which is really cool when it is snowing and absolutely silent. Tomorrow afternoon I will probably go snowmobiling with a friend in the mountains. Ever wonder what it’s like to ride along trails and through meadows with trees covered with snow on a 145hp machine that has a top speed of 107mph? Did I mention that the trailhead is 8 minutes from my house?
I know it isn’t as fun or exciting as walking around Irvine Speculum without a jacket, or sitting on the patio at pei-wei, but we manage.
The weather is how you want to look at it. Believe it or not the cold was one item on our positive list when we relocated. I love winter but I was also loved rainy days in California, and never understood why people whined about no rain then whined after a day of it. I guess I am just a freak.
huh huh uhhhhhh..he said “nestled”
Love the Beavis and Butthead reference.
😉
I wonder if these are just standard loss mitigation procedures that have been in place for decades. By the time they get around to reviewing and revising them, this debacle will be over…
We’re taking a trip to PA the day after XMas and I can’t wait after a horribly hot summer here.
Save some snow!
“paired home”
Thanks for the info ipoplaya.
Here is what i found so far:
Definition – two single-family homes with a shared wall
“Unlike traditional condos, paired homes enable residents to own both the home and the land upon which it’s been built. This “fee simple” approach gives them full title to their asset and a greater sense of ownership. It also gives them the responsibility of maintaining their own yards. ”
http://www.djc.com/news/re/11187279.html
Hey IR;
I’m waiting for the appropriate time when you open with Alvin and the Chipmonks “Please Christmas, Don’t be late”!
some more info, but still not sure how to classify the property. Is this classified LEGALLY as a Townhome or SFR? Or do we now have a new classification?
“A paired home is a form of townhouse that looks more like traditional single-family luxury residences because of the way it is designed, sited and built. Some of these communities offer on-site natural amenities that can be enjoyed by a greater number of homeowners.”
http://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/stories/2006/11/13/focus8.html
“Irvine Speculum…” I love it!
What’s going to happen to that place once the consumers are tapped dry? Oh wait, I forgot, that won’t ever happen!
IR,
I can see quite a few. It was very unfortunate for the overpaid buyers. At least the REOs are driving down the price for the new buyers.
They bid the amount of their loan because then they can carry it on their books at the full loan amount and, thus, not take an immediate write-off. If the loan were $720,000 and they bid $600,000, they would carry the (depreciating) asset at $600,000 instead of $720,000 and have to take an immediate $120,000 write off.
BUT — time is running out for them. The auditors will force them to write these REOs down to “lower of cost or market.” And the auditors will be looking closely at how the banks value their REOs because nobody wants to end up like Arthur Anderson. And when the auditors force the banks to reprice their REO inventory, it’s gonna get really, really ugly.
Ya know … that is what I think it is. The lenders have their procedures in place for loss mitigation, and those procedures are fine for normal times. But, the lenders have not yet acknowledged the current market and they need to change their policies to adapt. It seems the lenders are behaving just like the sellers and think that this is a temporarary blip and things will be fine in a month or two. Boy, this is gonna get ugg-g-g-g-gly!
In Florida that is called a “duplex”. If there are 3 of them stuck together it is a “triplex”.
In Balto where I come from if there are 3 or more of the stuck together, they are called “rowhouses”.
Which is what they are.
If this property had a bedroom and full bath down stairs, 2 car garage with full drive way (to park 4 cars), and hopefully at least a smallish backyard, I’d consider buying at ~$500k as primary residence. If it was a condo or town-home, ~$400k.
But I cannot see if this property has a drive way? I wouldn’t buy a 4 bedroom SFR without 4 parking spaces (2 in garage + 2 in drive way). Condos I can understand if it only came with 2 or 3 car garage, but from experience I don’t trust street parking unless the community has craploads of guest parking.
I think he means the “Irvine Rectum”.
That place is the biggest joke. Its nothing but an overpriced adolescent playground for 15-25 year olds with fake id’s and mommy and daddy’s credit cards.
“Sweet! This Rip-Curl t-shirt only costs 30 bux!” Nevermind you can get the same shirt at the Rip-curl outlet in San Clemente for $10.
Not to mention all of the restaurants like Fox sports bar and Habaneros playing monotonous back-beats and sporting crowds of hippies with dreadlocks wearing gucci watches and $200 jeans.
There are only two types of homes: Single Family Residences and Apartments.
SFR include:
A home you can walk all the way around in, preferably naked, and not walk into your neighbors bedroom.
Apartments:
Any shared dwelling be it stucco, brick, or straw and mud, including condos, townhomes, duplexes/gemini/twin, triplexes, 4+plexes, paired homes, patio homes, row houses, lofts, etc.
In short, if you have someone living directly beneath, above, or on any side of you, then you live in an apartment. Anything else is just RE marketing fluff.
IR,
Nice physique as well. I see your desk and computer, where did you hide the Bowflex and treadmill?
Seeing your picture makes me regret wasting all that time working out at the gym. Never thought you could develop abs like that sitting in front of the computer. Kudos!
You like the quiet in your spa but then you’ll go snow mobiling through the beautiful snow covered hills? Something doesn’t jive. One thing about healthy Californians, if they were there they’d snow shoe down those trails. Stay fit, stay thoughtful and stay ethical.
The picture also seems to be missing the bong, child pr0n, decapitated animals and the seedy hookers.
Close.
No cigar.
Chuck Ponzi
He’s kind of devilishly handsome, eh?
I wonder how many folks are considering that decreasing home prices may not, in the short term, cause homes to become any more affordable for those needing a loan to purchase.
This property went at auction for only $120K more than the asking price for yesterday’s condo at auction with no other bids and is sooooo much better than yesterday’s property.
AZ – I think you are missing the point that different areas have different premiums for the land. You keep looking at the houses featured on the blog and suggesting what the physical structure should cost but not taking into account the premium of the land.
This is a SFH in a very nice community. I imagine it can rent for close to $3000 in a normal market. It might rent for less now as there seems to be a lot of rental competition. In any case, with a 160 multiplier, the house comes to $480,000. Personally, I would jump into this house if it hit $500K.
Here are some interesting definitions I found:
Single Family Residence – A residential property on a single lot designed for the use of one family. It can be an attached or a detached dwelling.
Single Family Residence
A residential dwelling unit occupied by a single family. The dwelling unit may be detached from other dwelling unites or may be part of one or more attached units.
more confusion –
SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENCE (SFR)
A standard home with no common areas, no homeowners’ dues or sharing of common walls. A home intended to be occupied by 1 family.
Single Family Residence: A structure used or maintained as a single unit, notwithstanding whether it shares one or more walls with another unit, if it has direct access to a street and shares neither heating facilities, hot water equipment, not any other essential facility or service with any other dwelling unit (note that row or townhouses may fit within the definition of a single family residence).
IR/Others,
What is holding back banks from starting to sell their REO property portfolio on this market? Is it:
1) Fear of triggering a faster downward price spiral
2) Lack of infrastructure to start valuing these properties and selling them
3) Some government assurance that the lack of liquidity at banks will be fixed and that banks should not start selling off the properties at distress prices based on this assurance.
4) Play the waiting game
5) Other factors?
I will appreciate the comments of all you knowledgeable bloggers here.
I hate to say it , but at $600K it looks like a deal. This is a good-looking house.
But I am comparing it to overpriced houses at the peak of the rampage in marginal Chicago neighborhoods like mine, where any SF piece of garbage with 2000 sq ft or more got $650K or more no matter if it was 92 years old and the yard was filled with weeds and garbage and the place was one day from collapsing from neglect.
So, since we are off peak, I would say about $500K for this place. It is an above average house, attractive and new, on a gated street, and it has 2100 sq ft. Even today this house would bring $600K in my neck of the woods, and I don’t live in the best branch of the woods by any stretch.
In a fine Chicago suburb, like Winnetka or north Evanston, it would be $700K at least.
I can’t see a place like this, in a fine neighborhood no less, selling for less than $500K.
But maybe my brain is so addled from the wonderland real estate market of Chicago, that everything looks cheap.
If this place goes in the $400K range, we are in worse trouble than even I thought.
No way could it sell for $200K, anywhere, not even in places like suburban Detroit.
Wow. Priced_Out_IT_Guy, you have some issues. Why don’t you tell us how you REALLY feel? If that is how you view the area I hope you don’t reside anywhere near Irvine. You just have so much anger.
” stay ethical.”? I am somehow unethical because my form of recreation differs from yours? Excuse me while I vomit.
I agree about staying fit, that is why I like to hunt. Elk and especially Moose are very lean meats! 😉
The thing that I don’t understand is why some people in CA seem to have the impression that their “nice communities” are at so much more of a premium than any other nice community in the country.
You can say that “Oh well its CA and so many people want to live here – it’s high demand”, but that’s nonsense.
Everyone in the United States did not just wake up one morning in 1995 and say “I need to move to CA, it’s so much better there”.
A lot of you guys are still high off of all of the groupthink that convinced so many of you to over-extend your finances to “get in” to a house since “everyone else was doing it”.
CA had the technology boom in the 90’s which got the bubble rolling with all the new high-paying technology jobs moving in. Then that went bust in 2001 and the government stepped in with low interest rates to keep the party roaring.
Now it’s like any house in a decent neighborhood is talked about like it is some super-special that is worth more than the same neighborhood somewhere else.
I don’t care what you guys pay for your houses. Over-extend yourself to the brink of bankruptcy; I don’t care. Just keep it contained to your own state. Stop cashing in your fake equity and bringing it over to my state and pricing me out of the market that I already live and work in.
I’ve been in my house for 6.5 years so and my HOA has not once raised rates. That is $95 or my $150. For four of the six years, they even gave everyone the gift of free dues in December. Didn’t happen this year though… Less cash has been coming in with delinquencies, defaults, REOs, etc.
rkp,
this may be listed as a SFR, but it’s a townhome. there is no backyard, only what looks like a 7×9 patio.
“we are in worse trouble than even I thought. ”
Welcome to the real world!
It has a driveway that you can park two cars on, two Hotwheels cars that is… All the paired homes I have seen, this one included, have a garage in the back that opens on to a common alley-type street. So your garage would face another garage most commonly, across a 20′ street. The “driveway” is simply a little bit of concrete apron, perhaps 3-4′ wide, that connects the asphalt to your garage proper.
You can park two cars in the garage if you are lucky and have nothing to store in there, but end up parking on the street often. There is typically no guest parking or parking stalls.
We were all over that topic in yesterday’s comments awgee…
Diana – yes, we way overshot on the way up so we might way overshoot on the way down. I tend to think not, though, because once houses cashflow it’s hard to keep the smart money out. If we we see another great depression then of course all bets are off.
AZDavid – there are a lot of things that people like about houses and will pay a lot for and OC has about all of them – great weather, nearby water, good jobs, and resort areas. OC houses will always be worth far more than Phoenix houses unless our economy really goes off the rails. For many people the benefits of living here aren’t worth that extra money but 99 of 100 Americans don’t live here. The parachuting cashout types are mostly a result of the insane house prices and will go back to normal once the prices do.
Better to rule in Hell than to serve in Heaven. – John Milton
Hear ye, hear ye – AZDavidPhx has been hearing in AZ about CA’s inflated housing since before 2000. Everyone RESET expectations!
Three years ago there were almost no REOs, so there was little if any staff for dealing with them. I suspect the lenders have not been able to staff up to deal with the onslaught of REOs they currently have. Plus, they don’t want to start taking all the write downs on their portfolios to recognize the truth, so they are letting them all pile up until they have the staff to sell them and the auditor pressure to correct their balance sheets.
we should start a poll.
I vote for it guy’s definitions.
It’s not fake equity if you cash it out. It’s real dollars… Maybe you should have moved to CA, bought a place a while back, cashed out, and then went to AZ to live like a king? Looks like you can get a nice big place in Scottsdale, which I assume is the most costly area around Phoenix, for $700-750K right now.
Probably $300-400K under a comparable place in Irvine. For the extra $15K per year in interest that would cost me, I’d much rather live near the coast in a strong job market vs. the middle of the friggin’ desert. I had an office in Scottsdale and have one in Tempe now so I spend a bit out there.
My personal opinion, Phoenix is a hot nasty eyesore and ya got have some love for dirt to live there… It has very few redeeming features. Good golf maybe. Lotsa dirt. Some great sports teams. Lotsa dirt. Am I missing anything?
That’s not the way it works AZ.
When we reach retirement we sell our homes in California, move to Arizona, pay cash for our retirement homes and then enjoy having the rest of the money in the bank.
AZ – you make it sound like every square inch of land in America should be worth the same and that there shouldn’t be any notion of a land premium. Thats just rediculous. A beach front will cost more than inland. A city center will cost more than the outer areas.
You keep comparing Irvine communities to Arizona communities but housing prices in Arizona have no bearing to prices here. Why? Well at least for me, I am here and not in Arizona and I need a house here, not in Arizona. So while I can get the same house for less in Arizona, it doesn’t mean anything. My job is hear and my family is here. So while I can cry about how overpriced CA is, I am not in any groupthink or high that is making me believe it is worth more or less than Arizona. I am not even comparing or caring about Arizona and rather, making the decision based on what the pricing has historically been and what I can afford.
Senate passes FHA subprime help
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Senate on Friday overwhelmingly passed legislation that would expand the nation’s largest federal homeownership program in a move that could help struggling subprime borrowers avoid foreclosure.
The bill would loosen underwriting standards at the Federal Housing Administration so that the program can help 200,000 troubled borrowers save their homes, according to the overseers of the program.
The FHA is a Depression-era program conceived in 1934 that was designed to insure the mortgage payments of low-income borrowers who might have trouble winning a loan.
The U.S. House of Representatives has already passed its version of FHA reform, and now lawmakers will take the two versions of the bill to a conference where differences are worked out. The bill will then be presented to U.S. President George W. Bush to be signed into law.
Supporters of reform have said the program can be retooled to save hundreds of thousands of borrowers from foreclosure as the current mortgage crisis takes hold.
“HUD’s Federal Housing Administration can provide many homeowners with a fairer, more affordable, and more sustainable alternative to costly subprime loans,” Department of Housing and Urban Development Alphonso Jackson said in a prepared statement.
As envisioned, the FHA reform legislation would raise the current loan limit from $362,000 to at least $417,000, which is the same cap on loans that binds mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
The final vote was 93 lawmakers in favor and one against.
(Reporting by Patrick Rucker; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071214/pl_nm/usa_subprime_fha_dc_4
also, many banks are still trying to get top-dollar for their REOs. while I wouldn’t buy right now even if rents were 2x what they are right now, I do know several people trying to buy REOs right now & if they offer anything lower than list, are getting “NO”s. maybe a counter for 1-2% less.
banks still believe the wishing prices. & they won’t sell for less until made to.
American-Screamer – I don’t understand how you can take enjoying the quiet from a spa and enjoying snow mobiling as a conflict of ethics. I don’t know about you but I like going to the beach in the evenings and just relaxing listening to the calm waters but I also like taking a wave runner or speed boat out for some loud and noisy fun. How is that any different?
Priced_Out_IT_Guy – I am not gung-ho about OC in general (grew up in West LA near SM and like the diversity) but to have such strong feelings about a shopping mall is beyond me. Also, if you feel this way about Spectrum, I wonder how you feel about Fashion Island! And to say that Spectrum is all high-end and fake…it has a freakin Red Robins! Show me some $200 jeans in the Red Robin please…
“No way could it sell for $200K, anywhere, not even in places like suburban Detroit.”
You have to be seriously addled. Have you never lived or vistied anywhere else than Chicago or NY or LV?
This place wouldn’t sell for $200,000 in Nashville right now. & we’re not even completely out of our seller’s market.
It doesn’t have a yard.
For 4/3, that 2100 sq ft is tiny.
& with an attached wall, people here would think that it looks like a very nice duplex.
HOA dues are insurance paid to protect you from crappy neighbors.
“The Senate on Friday overwhelmingly passed legislation that would expand the nation’s largest federal homeownership program in a move that could help struggling subprime borrowers avoid foreclosure. ” by totally screwing the rest of you.
Merry Christmas, responsible tax payers!
I was highly against HOAs but there is a difference in neighborhoods with it and without. Older neighborhoods with it tend to still maintain a nice and clean look and feel.
That being said, I think most HOAs cost too much and don’t do a good job with the funds. As much as I like the idea of a block party hosted by the HOA, I would much rather keep that money and let the HOA just maintain the basics. My parents very old neighborhood doesn’t have a HOA and yet has a very strong sense of community. Neighbors frequently invite each other during their parties or BBQs.
I think an HOA should be limited to just maintaining the common area. Also, there should be a limit on how much policing should be done. I have heard horror stories of people getting notices for the height of their grass!
According to the tax records, this is considered a single family residence. That determination is made by Orange County, not the Realtor. The MLS shows this as a SFR that is attached.
Orange County SFRs usually are zoned as such because of the average size of the lots, which tend to be larger than condo lots. The streets tend to be wider as well.
Orange County also has a an animal called “detached condo” which is usually a condo that is detached from neighbors on all four walls, but is too close to neighbors to consider it an SFR.
Hope that helps.
Land? There is no land in this place. The premium that Irvine commands could easily turn into a penalty at some point. If you look at many other So OC towns, they are much lower already, except for the beach areas. The schools are good in Irvine, but that place is 1 block from a tollway, and it has Tustin schools. People can put their kids in private school and still get a great deal on a house in So OC for the price of a factory lifestyle in an Irvine Corporation housing project.
You can find $200 jeans almost anywhere in OC, even at Walmart. I’d say about 50% of women under 30 in the OC have at least one pair of them.
Location? California? Time to wake up & smell the oleander. Yes, I like where I live (rent) – Carlsbad, CA. Combo of weather & proximity to the Pacific is hard to beat. But I have a family & have to think of the future.
California has the highest state personal income taxes in the nation & Arnold & the socialist legislature are mulling over raising them. Add in the fees we pay, the property tax, the sales tax, etc, and this place is an expensive place to live.
I move here from the East 30 years ago and it has changed dramatically. But I don’t think we’ve even seen the worse. The illegal problem is a massive problem for the state. The traffic just keeps getting worse.
And with the coming recession (Allen the Greenspan just came out saying a recession was on it’s way) – crime will go up and quality of life will go down. Razor wire anyone?
Look I’m trying to stay positive, but I am glad I rent and do not own. That makes it much easier if I choose to leave CA.
Even tho we could walk only 3/4s of the way around my childhood duplex, we had a front and back yard that you guys would call large, and the house had 8 rooms and a full basement. I think that qualifies for a single family house.
The rooms were medium sized.
I used to have the same attitude about Phoenix until I spent time there multiple times on business. I grew up on the Gulf Coast in FL and I would much rather have the dry heat and desert flora of Phoenix than the nasty humidity and scrubby pines. It’s not so bad with Camelback mountain to enhance the views. And from what I’ve heard they have more potable water than we do due to underground aquifers.
I’m with AZ. This place should drop to $420k Max purchase price. Some of these posters here seem to be damage control realtors here to make things look rosy.
AZ – You can look at some of the responses to your comments and know all you ever need to know about the mentality of the people who live in Irvine. The city is marinated in extra special sauce and served up with a side of wonderful. There was a massive tech- er, internet boom there in the late 90s. Most of those companies have since died, as I assume values will in the next couple of years. Nice place, but not that nice.
I did exactly that! I moved from Arizona to Irvine in 2001 and then cashed out in the Summer of 2006. I moved to a much more affordable market in the Southeast. Trust me – that equity was REAL. Thank you to the knife catcher who bought my place. I am pretty sure it was a 100% financed deal so thank you to the bank!
Maybe the word is “integrity”, and not “ethical”. That would explain seeming contradiction between peace and quiet for himself and his family one minute, and noisy polluter scaring off the wildlife and hikers the next day. He lacks integrity. But that is an ethical quality, so …
” One thing about healthy Californians, if they were there they’d snow shoe down those trails.”
Darn straight. Right after driving like maniac’s for two hours to the trailhead in their gas guzzling HELOC status vehicles.
I agree that different places have different premiums.
One other major factor in housing prices is the economic potential of the area. People who live in lower manhattan or silicon valley are really paying to be within driving distance of a major center of innovation and opportunity. If you have skills that give you a plausible shot at taking advantage of that opportunity, it can be rational to pay a high price (both rent and housing) to live in that area.
I think the most reliable measure of how far prices have to fall is not “irvine prices should be equal to, say, st louis prices”, but rather Irvine prices should normalize to the long-term irvine rent-to-purchase-price ratio. The rentals will come up a bit, the house prices will come down significantly, but both rent and home prices will still reflect the high level of economic opportunity that exists in so. cal. as opposed to say, detroit.
No, there are laws regarding foreclosure proceedings. They were established to protect homeowners from abuse during the great depression. Somebody who is professional may want to correct my impression, but all these steps are governed by law.
I think they’re finally starting to understand the true impact of this subprime mess… Late 2009 at the earliest. Sounds more realistic than a lot of the crap that’s been floating around out there, that’s for sure.
Fannie CEO: Housing Trouble Until 2009
Fannie Mae’s CEO told shareholders Friday he does not expect a housing market recovery until late 2009, “at the earliest,” and that the mortgage-finance company is strong enough to ride out the downturn.
http://finance.myway.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_rt_top.jsp?news_id=ap-d8thcn100&
I knew that my post was going to elicit a good response or two, but that’s what keeps it all fun.
I just want to say that what many of you may not realize is that the decisions that you make in California directly influence our market next door.
When all of you are taking out huge loans to pay off each others inflated mortgage and cash out to come and buy out here, it makes our house prices inflate and our salaries are a good 10K to 15K behind you which puts more economic pressure on local businesses to “keep up”.
The Phoenix real-estate market is way over-inflated now due to all of the out-of-state (California) speculation that went on during the boom.
You guys can say that I have no place in the conversation, but please keep in mind that your actions have repercussions outside of your own state.
Also, I don’t think that every place in the country has equal value. There are places in Scottsdale, AZ that would make areas of Irvine look like a dump – yet the dumpy areas of Irvine are considered to be “premium” for no reason other than being where they are?
You can bash Phoenix as a sand pit or whatever all you want.
People are moving here faster than they are to CA it seems some people find it tolerable.
Vail is special, ahem. The bigger they come, the harder they fall.
Yup. That’s right. I wish it only worked the other way around!
🙂
Hear ye! I love it!
Well, let’s rehash just for my benefit.
Anybody else want to start a boycott of all REO until such time the bank lessens the price to 80% of appraised value?
Certainly, the HOAs are a necessary evil.
The trick is finding one that doesn’t come with their hands out for more each year. I’m glad for ipoplaya that his HOA appears to act reasonably.
When I lived in Tucson, they were upping 5$ here, 10$ there, it was just getting ridiculous and we were not getting any more for our dues. I was once left a notice for having an empty box sitting on the storage shelf in my carport and I thought to myself “This is what I am paying HOA dues for to make sure all of the boxes on my storage shelf are not empty?”
I agree. Perform the basics.
There’s something to be said for HOAs, but they are ruined by several factors:
1) Pre-bubble HOAs had reasonable dues — less than $100 per month. Bubble developments got out of whack — some HOAs charge in excess of $500 per month. That’s obscene.
2) Neighborhood Nazis. OK, some people think that getting elected to the HOA board is like running your own military junta. ‘Nuff said.
3) The endless nitpicking about compliance. Who’s car is in the driveway. Who’s retaining wall is 6 inches too high. Who’s landscaping doesn’t contain the right mix of drought-resistant plants. Give me a break.
Most of the places I am looking at are HOA communities, so I’m bracing myself. I currently live in a non-HOA community (needless to say, I’m not an Irvine resident) and I love being able to do whatever I want, whenever I want. I even leave my trash cans out in the street for … gasp … more than 24 hours after pickup and nobody has complained yet!
That being said, when the jack*ss high school kids next door decided to turn their garage into a fraternity house, it would have been nice to call one of those HOA Nazis to come in an kick butt. Oh well, sometimes a man’s gotta do his own dirty work.
Let me explain the difference between Irvine and Winnetka! Winnetka is in the woods, with birds and perhaps deer as neighbors. This place is carved out of a sagebrush parabolic hillside, where the extra layer of smog helps the concrete heat up. Yet there are similarities. Have you ever pulled up to a place in Winnetka that had a five car garage? Well, Irvine looks exactly like the garage.
Any sale for less than the loan amount is going to be a loss for the bank, and they don’t want to authorize the employee on the courthouse steps bidding for the bank to determine whether or not to take a loss like that. So they bid the amount of the loan, go through their process and put it on the market. In addition, the bank figures a regular MLS buyer will pay market rates and have access to a wider array of financing. Because of the cash requirement and more limited publicity of an auction, an auction in a declining market will almost never result in a higher than market sale price, but will often result in a lower than market sale price. So the bank bids the loan amount.
Another realtor trick — closing the blinds in the picture. I guess they don’t want you to see your neighbor-to-be next door watching TV in his underwear.
Income taxes are high because property taxes were capped out by Prop 13. Other states get a larger share of their revenue from property taxes and also don’t provide as much government service as the “Labor Party” (i.e. democarts) demand. Higher education subsidized to the top 10% of high school grads (so a UCSB student on smarter than a 5 grader last night.. he had trouble counting how many s’s were in suprise and how many days were in a leap year), every supplemental benefit medaide allows and paying for the largest prision system in the U.S.A. with some guards making 80-100K yr with overtime!
And you can communte through the Y everyday after you buy in South OC, burning 1-2 extra hours of your day and $10 per day in gas. A fifty mile roundtrip commute at today’s gas prices probably costs someone $2K out of pocket per year. That is equivalent to $50K on a mortgage at 6%. So all other things being equal, better to pay at least $50K more and live in Irvine vs. living 25 miles away. This of course assumes you work in Irvine as much of the OC workforce does…
I looked hard at RSM and found extra gas, tolls, higher property taxes and time value was equivalent to around $150K for my family or so at a 6.5% mortgage in my case, i.e. if I could get what I wanted in RSM for $150K less than in Irvine, with good schools, I should buy out there. The differential has never been that big. As a matter of fact, I have friends that bought the same square footage and # of beds/baths at around the same time and they only paid $25K less.
One must consider all economic and non-economic factor when making the comparison. If my wife and I both worked in South OC, for sure I’d be buying down there but we both come to Irvine and I haven’t been able to find equivlanet housing, all other things being equal, to justify the commute. AV was a possibility once upon a time, but values went way up there over the past few years and there doesn’t seem to be much difference between Irvine and there today.
The HOA natzis help keep the prop values up. That’s what I love about living in a HOA development. People who don’t cut the grass, making the neighborhood look crappier and less appealing to potential buyers, well they get a notice, get called to meeting, or fined. That guy next door with the beater old broken down truck parked forever because it doesn’t run, well the HOA will have that puppy towed. If you take care of and have pride in the appearance and/or maintenance of your home, you usually have nothing to worry about with the HOA.
I do agree that most are poorly managed though. People with real jobs, financial savvy, etc. don’t bother to take the time to run/join. The end up being a bunch of retirees, stay at home mom’s, etc. I did a stint on our HOA board and during my tenure I made vast improvements to the financial management of the association. Went from keeping money in money market accounts yielding 1-2% to the reserves being professionally managed by ML with CD laddering and such. When you have a half-mil in reserves, 2-3 extra points of interest makes a big difference – almost enough to pay the landscrape maintenance company for an entire month of work. I even pitched investing some part of the reserves in equities (would have been damn smart at the time) but apparently there are laws against that. The focus on maximizing returns on HOA funds has kept my HOA from raising dues. Sadly, effectively managing reserves is an afterthought for too many HOAs…
What I find so amazing, personally, are some of the righteously indignant comments about how it is so absurd that a property in Irvine, CA might actually sell for a price that is affordable by a household earning the median Irvine income of 84,000 without relying on “creative financing”.
The mere suggestion of less than half a million dollars for the ugliest Irvine, CA heap draws derision, ridicule, and smart ass remarks (“Hear ye!”).
“This sacred piece of land that we live on is not that same as you hoi polloi second rate citizens elsewhere. If you had any sense – you would be here too” type of elitism.
I thought Scottsdale,AZ had a superficial crowd.
Wow.
AZ,
don’t sweat it. people always want to believe their home is better than everyone elses, & should command a premium.
guess what? I live in Nashville, TN & I think it’s one of the best cities ever. The people are sweet & helpful. I live 20 min away from my work during regular times throughout the day, & 30 min away during the 5 o’clock traffic. The winters are mild & we still get snow. The summers are mild & there are days when you don’t need to turn on the air.
& yet, the ratio here, historically, is not 160. nope, more like 110-120. right now, in a outgoing sellers market, we’re at 140.
& I am just fine with that.
I will never take pride in saying that my home will never be worth less than half a million just because everyone wants to live here.
Chris – I liked your analysis. The only thing that you forgot to mention in the equation was “income”.
I did not see you mention anywhere that house prices need to come back down to reality with average incomes of the people nearby.
You cannot support a market where all homes cost 500K when half the people in the community earn less than 84K per year. It doesn’t work without “creative financing”.
Let me give you an example from my neck of the woods:
Here’s our first home, in a non-HOA part of West Irvine, where property values did not rise nearly as much. It’s a 2500 sf 4/2.5, rather basic, but not an eyesore:
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1332995
Similar home, in Northwood Pointe, with a HOA of course, which helps keep the neighborhood selling at a premium:
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1292399
Another similar home, much closer to the non-HOA West Irvine place, listed for almost $200K more:
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1051840
There isn’t much difference between all these homes, and yet the first one is priced considerably lower. They are all within a mile or so of each other. The homes in this area, without the HOA, have always sold for lower. The neighborhood doesn’t look as good, has less amenities, etc. Most 2500sf Irvine places are probably worth $800-850K in todays market. To be able to pick one up for $700K shows a little bit of the difference between HOA and non-HOA neighborhoods…
aaaaaahhhhhhhhh, that’s what makes it so much more attractive. now I get it.
Hi Diana –
I have never been to TN. I definitely need to visit sometime.
I have spent quite a bit of time this year in Oklahoma City doing work for the Air Force base there and it is like an entirely different community.
The house prices there were pretty much unaffected by the masses or debtors in the other states.
In places like these, the house-price topic never even gets brought up. You don’t this “my house is bigger than yours” status competition.
That part of the country is wonderful. I would consider living around there someday but for now most family is in AZ and work/school are good so I will be here awhile longer.
🙂
What most people don’t realize is the fully 80% of the state of Arizona is actually part of Hell! 100 days a year above 100 degrees = MISERY.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/psr/general/history/index.php?page=100deg
That said I’ll take that over 200+ days of rain Seattle, 6 months of snow Minneapolis, 100% humidity Houston, etc. So on the balance there are worse places than Phoenix! I know, I know, it seems almost unimaginable.
Let’s be clear on the reason why Phoenix is growing. Cheap land. Why is the land cheap? Cause its SO DAMN HOT! Honestly, I am surprised they don’t have to pay people to live in AZ, like they do in Alaska.
No argument here. In moderation, HOAs are positives. I especially like the community centers, pools, etc.
But — without knowing the cost of those HOAs — to what extent do the HOA dues offset the higher property values? Plus, some people put a premium on the freedom to do with their property as they please (we’ve got a few absentee landowners in our neighborhood, but by and large, our property values are fine). That’s especially important if you want to remodel a house in your distinct style (which, of course, has its pros and cons, depending on your style!). Many HOAs won’t let you depart from present architectural guidelines. Finally, presumably, the non-HOA homeowners bought in at a lower price, so that offsets the lower property values when they sell. In exchange, they get the same house for less money. Also, it remains to be seen what happens to the HOAs if and when they start facing budget issues — do they raise dues (and impose an additional tax on homeowners) or do they abandon services (and dilute that premium on property values)? Given your experience, it seems like a crapshoot whether any particular HOA can remain financially solvent in the long term.
I’m not arguing against HOAs in all instances — like I said, I’ll probably end up in one the next time I move — I just think that they have the potential to be taken to an unhealthy extreme. In short, I don’t want to pay $500 per month to give neighbors with too much time on their hands the ability to fine me for leaving my trash cans on the street too long.
that should be “preset” architectural guidelines.
You know, I quite honestly, tend to agree with you.
Don’t ask me how I am from AZ, but I much prefer cold weather to hot weather. I really cannot stand the hot summers here.
However! I find that I am quite in the minority on this issue! People actually do come here for the weather. Some people actually like the heat. It is the strangest thing, but I find it constantly.
Apparantly a great deal people in the northeast grow tired of shoveling driveways for 20 years and come out here and think they have found paradise.
We also get a lot of retirees who prefer the warm climate.
Might not be for me. Might not be for you. But that doesn’t really make me (or you) superior them…right?
What about the dead kittens?
Integrity..please. It might have came off funny that in one sentence he enjoys the calmness and in the next he enjoys roaring an engine through the calmness but thats about it. To make a statement regarding integrity or ethics from that is just rediculous.
Whats with all the stereotypes today? $200 jeans, crazy mentality, californians are healthy, fake malls…its friday people, relax.
Indeed, excellent points to consider skek. In terms of buying in a lower price, I used those particular examples because the non-HOA home sold for $360K in ’99 while the one on Pollena went for $440K in 2002. Homes in the non-HOA area in that size range were in the $400K+ range by 2002 so there was very little purchase price differential. Some five years later, there is a considerable price differential, probably $100K+ between the two homes. The non-HOA house is only a few years older, but has not held up as well as other West Irvine properties. I think the HOA and facilities/amentities they provide and maintain is another reason Northpark values have continue to hold up well relative to other areas. NP has very expensive association dues…
Lender anxiety: Discounts at foreclosure auctions
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2007/12/lender-anxiety.html
Lenders are clearly becoming anxious to avoid taking on more real estate owned (REO) assets,” ForeclosureRadar founder Sean O’Toole said in a press release. O’Toole called the discounting trend a “sea change” in the banks’ pricing strategy.
“We were surprised by the magnitude of the discount and even more surprised that most of the homes went back to the bank with no investor bidding in spite of the price cut,” he said.
Example: A Stockton home with an underlying foreclosed loan of $419,000 was recently auctioned with an opening bid of $240,000 — a discount of 42.8% from the bank’s investment — and still attracted no bids, O’Toole says.
He says the percentage of foreclosed homes now being discounted at auction is 66%, and the average lender discount is $48,000 — up from $9,000 at the beginning of the year.
That’s true. Key point being “those needing a loan to purchase”. If one didn’t need a loan to purchase (ie. can pay all cash – which is mostly nobody), it’s more affordable. But if you need a loan, it’s hard as the banks are all hording cash to cover the current and coming foreclosures, etc. so they are charging anyone (ie. other banks, homebuyers, etc.) more if they will lend to you at all.
Shek- you would do well to avoid Woodbridge! I was cited for not painting my gate the appropriate shade of white.
Well said AZ, incomes have to go up or prices have to fall. I believe it really is that simple now that the financial sector has been raped and pillaged.
Also, I didn’t mean to imply that all of the equity was false. If you sold, and realized the gains, then I tip my hat to you. What I was stating is that a lot of people, who think they are wealthy, will soon be in for a wake up call which rivals that of Neo when he woke up in The Matrix.
Hehahehaheha
The Lender bids the loan amount because it satisfied the investor and prevents a true rating of the CDO. AH HA!
This allows whatever derivative that was backed by the asset (the home value) to be paid in full without negative impacts. What does this mean? The crap sold on wall-street that was backed by this house’s value gets to die a pristine rated death. It looks as if the debt was satisfied, but we all know that it hasn’t been.
That’s what we call fraud. This was a straw-buyer transaction. The buyer walked away from the purchase with cash back from the seller. He/She than probably defrauded a renter out of several months of rent while not paying the mortgage.
Vail is heaven on earth. I contemplate moving back to CO so I can ski there again.
My friend’s dad made a small fortune in real estate there about 15 years ago, but I have no idea what the market is like these days.
They aren’t making any more mountains.
In time I believe that won’t be necessary.
In Florida it is customary to bid $100 by the bank. It reduces the amount of doc stamps the bank has to pay. Therefore, I don’t think there are Federal Tax implications. There used to be some bankruptcy implications or implications that there was unfairly low amount bid, but after a few flurries those concerns seem to have gone away.
All the courthouse vultures know that the $100 bid is from a bank, and have already checked the file to see what the amount owed is. Usually they don’t bother to bid unless they want to outbid the bank. But it is possible that a vulture will try to bid half the amt of the mtg and see what happens. The vulture could conceivably call up the foreclosing atty and see what bidding instructions the atty has.
Virtually all the foreclosures in Miami are going back to the bank. That used to be the case always in Miami, then there were bidders during the bubble, and now we are back to square one again.
If you had bought any property 30 years ago in Carlsbad, you’d have made at least 30 times your money….
Or nude. Been there, done that. Still can’t get the images out of my head…. I really like having 400 feet between me and my closest neighbor.
That reminds me of my time in Denver eons ago. Thank God those easterners think that Colorado and Arizona are The West and stop there.
We already got too many New “Yorkahs” in Encino and the West Side. We can’t handle more people, please… keep your Yankees out East, on the other side of the Colorado.
As the Eagles said… “They came from Providence, out in Rhode Island…”. Yep, they come West and wreck our Paradise.
For all I care, we should have sent John Wayne out to Arizona like 30 years ago and he could have shot up all them first wave yankee immigrants so that no more would think of coming West of Laramie.
And oh…. IMHO, the only place to live in Arizona is Flagstaff. But that’s just me. Phoenix is simply over the top HOT.
It’s been very interesting and informative reading the varying opinions regarding location. Great topic, btw! I don’t know about the mentality in other parts of the country but as a single male living in the OC, I’ve often wondered if location is a form of social currency here. Is your social value to some degree is predicated on where you live? Would living in Newport Beach provide me with a higher social value/ status than living in Irvine? These are questions I’ve frequently asked myself. The establishment (media) seems to vigorously promote this. The Real Housewives of OC show constantly showcases the “Coto lifestyle”. So much so that living in Coto has been infused into their sense of self and who they are. It seems that the social conditioning is stronger here than in other parts of the country.
This place featured today is looking worse and worse to me.
1. Based on what I read here today, it was purchased at one point using straw buyers. It became an REO.
2. The picture hides the fact that this home has a common wall with its neighbor and NO back yard, yet it is legally classified as a single family home.
3. This “paired home” concept, or fad is a really stupid idea the more I think about it. I would not want any part of it. It is just another attempt to be able to use less land and tell you your getting a single family home.
This place already has a little bit of a shaded past and it was only built in 2000. I think it has bad luck.
Earlier I stated that I thought the market value was 455k. I know its a good location and gated from what I read here, and thats the reason I give it that high of a value.
2008 is projected to be another down year for real estate.
Banks might get tired of holding all this depreciating real estate and just fire-sale it in 2008.
While I agree that it may make sense for a bank to take a small loss and end it at the auction, typically banks don’t do that. They look to mitigate loss in a more methodical way – it is difficult to accurately assess the value of a property in a repeatable way prior to the auction.
Also, as of a few months ago banks were selling many OC foreclosures above the auction price (like this one is trying to do).
(1) It is obvious why the non HOA is cheaper. It doesn’t have granite on the kitchen counters, only white tile. In an HOA community the Board would clearly write you up for that failure to keep the property values up.
(2) You got to be very careful about what the “powers” of the HA are. The Davis Sterling Act that got passed in California tightly controls the Board of Directors to ensure that it does not abuse it’s “powers”.
(3) Often time the HOA Board is loaded with control freaks and nazis ( I should know, I’m the only non-nazi in my Board ). The CC&Rs and ByLaws may or may not give much power to the HOA. Indeed, the older HOAs granted very few rights to the HOA Board. Ignorant homeowners will jump when the Nazis at the Board tell them to, but smart homeowners who read their CC&Rs just laugh their heads off and walk away.
(4) Many people in Irvine grant powers to the HOA that are in the realm of the City. For example, if you keep a car on blocks in your driveway for more than three days all you gotta do is call the cops and they will start the process to have the car moved away. They will notify the owner and if they don’t move it then they’ll tow it away. The HOA has nothing to do with this at all.
(5) Many “fines” levied by the HOA Boards are bogus. Not only do they often not even have the power per se -using sheer intimidation- but the Davis Sterling Act may have made obsolete/illegal many of the powers granted by the CC&Rs.
The bottom line is not to assume that the HOA has a lot of power. The nazis and control freaks like to think they do, but in reality all they’re doing is bullying people around.
As I said, I should know. I deal with such imbeciles often.
lendingmaestro,
I have a question for you. If fraud was indeed occured here, does the lender do anything to recoup the loss from the people who set up and close the fraudulent transaction? A straw buyer, to me, is someone who could be totally clueless.
Does the bank show up with cash too? What do they do? Bring in certified checks or do they have a Brinks truck parked near by?
“You can say that “Oh well its CA and so many people want to live here – it’s high demand”, but that’s nonsense.”
It’s a variation of the everybody wants to live here. Well, they don’t.
However, 3.1 Million people do. That’s the population of OC.
Riverside county has another 2.1 Million. San Bernardino County adds another 2.0 Million people.
Now of course, not all the people in San Bernardino want to live in OC. Those in Big Bear or Victorville, probably want to live out their. Many of the rest, live there for affordability reasons. A fair percent, I suspect, would live in OC if they could, particularly the areas that are newer and safer, than the old gang ridden portions of the County.
The secondary reason is also fairly simple. Jobs. Not income, raw jobs. Pull up, Monster.com, Dice.com, your favorite job board and do a job search for the kind of job you want and compare how many you find within a commutable distance from Irvine compared to Phoenix, the whole Metro area.
So, yes, the prices are not sustainable, but due to the number of people that already live here and continue to want to live here, there will be a slight premium.
This home, in the mid-west may be fairly ‘median’. Then again, it may not. It’s newly built, barely eight years old. If you hit the newly built out suburbs of Minneapolis, this house, granted would have a yard, but would also weigh in with a $450K+ price tag.
What do Nashville, Detroit, Chicago and Vegas have to do with the property values in Orange County?
It irks me to no end when people start to pontify and issue fatwahs or our property values based upon the price of noodles in Kyoto.
And, did you notice that AZDavidPhx lives in an apartment complex? What experience does he have with real estate values?
Come on folks, I can see how IR knows real estate prices because he has stated that at some point he wants to get a house and he’s PO’d about the damn bubble ( as most of us are, homeowners or not ). Others around here are renting homes so they understand the market.
But someone renting an apartment in Phoenix and telling us how much our property values should be? Based upon perhaps the number of lizards in a desert ravine after a summer monsoon?
Folks, get a clue. Property values are local and they reflect local conditions. There are macrodynamic factors too, which is why a dump in Costa Mesa is worth more than a chateau in Iowa… but overall please stop ponticifying on property values and lifestyle choices.
Jeez….
(1) The images of OC on TV are a cruel insult perpetrated upon us by the LA based media. I would love to see a reality show called “Batos Locos of East LA” or “South Central Friday Night Fights” or “Yuppies of the West Side”… you name it. I think the New Testament says something about throwing rocks and glass houses.. .but the clowns in Burbank either follow the Old Testament or are heathens on their own…
(2) Location does affect your social standing. This is true regardless of time and space. That is, in Ancient Rome some hills had more status than others. In some islander tribes, the chiefs live in the center of the village in the biggest house. Face it, those are the facts. “Location, location, location” is possibly the only truth in the RE mantra.
Oh yes, location carries status. Living in an expensive areas carries cachet just like driving an expensive car or wearing expensive clothes. It will help you get chicks (or dudes) too, although perhaps not the best life partners. And yes, California seems more status-driven than most places in the country.
Well, I gotta differentiate myself from that other Chris but I agree with what that Chris said as well.
You pay a premium for your location. Phoenix with 125 degrees in the summer (at least that’s what I have heard from folks who were from there) is desirable for a lot of folks…NOT!
AZ, with Irvine housing price falling, do you actually expect housing price in Phoenix to hold up to the point where both market would be equal? Think of it this way: stock prices and valuation of several companies that compete in the same category would all fall with a macroecon condition that dictates a recession. However, the so-called bluechip company’s stock price and valuation will hold up better than those other so-called also-ran companies.
Unfortunately, and I hate to burst your bubble, Irvine/OC and other coastal areas throughout US are the bluechip companies for real estate while Phoenix is the so-called also-ran (you can argue whatever you like, but I can’t argue the fact that CA has a higher population and higher real estate price than AZ). Sure, the coastal area housing prices are going down now because of “irrational exuberance” that was formed somewhere between ’01 and ’07 but that phenomenon also existed throughout the US. By saying “$1 mill? I can get blah blah blah in snowland county, nowhere”, you’re basically saying the equivalent of “shoot, why the hell should I pay $$$ for Proctor and Gamble when I can pay the same amount for x numbers of Kimberly Clark”
“Fake equity”? Sure, when CA hits 125 degrees F in the summer. But what will that leave Phoenix with?
Consider the possibility, the banks are not hoarding. Rather, they are meeting reserve requirements as a result of shrinking assets.
“In time I believe that won’t be necessary.”
Neccesity? Who said anything about neccesity? It just sounds like fun to me.
Yes. And as directly relates to you tm, the more expensive the neighborhood you live, the more attractive women will be interested.
I’m not really interested in arguing about where the best place to live is. It’s meaningless.
I think that a lot of the arguments being made for the “Irvine Premium” sound very similar to the “it’s different this time” argument that people made to justify forever house price increases.
Like I said, if you guys all want to keep the Pyramid scheme going in CA; fine. Just don’t cash in your fake equity to buy an “investment” home in Scottsdale which does affect me. If the sides were flipped, you all would be whining about it too.
Also 125 degrees is a bit of an exaggeration. 118 is usually about the hottest day of the year. But summer will usually average between 110 to 115. Still pretty hot, but not 125.
Flagstaff is wonderful! Love it!
AZ, I don’t think you get my argument. I agree right now the prices are high because of irrational exuberance (which you happen to call pyramid scheme). We both agree from that perspective. Also, you **have to expect** an increase in Phoenix housing price when CA housing price increases as well during this bubble (that’s why they call it bubble…duh!). It’s not a localized one but a nationwide phenomenon. Think of it as when PG stock price going up and so too will KMB stock price if macroecon condition favors consumer non-cyclical products because they both compete in the same category.
By saying “Just don’t cash in your fake equity to buy an “investment” home in Scottsdale which does affect me.”, you’re basically pricing yourself out forever because of this mentality. Buy when the macroecon condition makes it right to buy. Don’t buy into that 4x salary argument crap since there are other macroecon conditions that do affect housing prices one way or another….as a matter of fact, inflation is a bigger factor that you think. 4x salary, if I’m not mistaken, was taken from the 70s (yeah, if I’m wrong in this argument…sue me). Well, do you remember the interest rate back then?
Go contrarian after the knife stops falling and people still have fear of the RE market. Real estate is not worthless wallpapers like the tech bubble back in Y2K.
Right now, the knife is still gravitating towards Earth……
I was just saying that I think the prices will be that way soon enough with or without intervention.
If boycotting something is your idea of fun then have at it.
“2. The picture hides the fact that this home has a common wall with its neighbor and NO back yard, yet it is legally classified as a single family home.”
I missed that, but looking at the first photo, it’s completely obvious now. See that white vertical trim? That’s probably the wall demark. Just to the right of it is the left edge of the stoop for the 2nd house. This is a townhome. 2100 sf townhome. Argh.
If I had showed up thinking it is a SFR, I’d be pissed because it’s a townhome.
Our bank (major bank, which still appears rather stable) checks in with us periodically to see if we might want to buy something soon. We are their favorite potential type of buyer: money for a down payment, excellent credit, long term customer, virtually no other outstanding debt.
We checked the last rates they offered vs bankrate.com. Suffice it to say that there are umm, some big discounts on 30 year fixed jumbo loans to be gotten.
Regarding affordability, it’s easy to watch things become more affordable. We have been able to save about $35,000 a year aftertax by not being homeowners and renting instead. That piles up really fast if you actually invest it.
Potential buyers should try the following experiment. 1. Find out how much more you would have to pay if you bought the home you would like at its current price. 2. Try saving the difference between rent and ownership costs for 6 months. 3. If you can indeed live on that without too much discomfort, you can own a home. 4. By the time the experiment is over, you’ve probably some money toward the downpayment, and the prices have dropped 7-10% in those 6 months.
I have found that the single women in the most expensive neighborhoods are significantly more annoying.
When moving to an expensive neighborhood, it seems best to BYOG.
If I’m not mistaken isn’t Arizona in the midst of it’s own massive correction? I don’t have the numbers in front of me either, but isn’t income in Arizona, with the exception of Scottsdale and maybe a couple other places, a good bit lower than that of Irvine? I know in my profession, law, the pay at top firms in Irvine is about twice that of top firms in Phoenix. Maybe not the best way to come at it but legal salaries tend to reflect billing rates, which reflect the size and profitability of the local economy.
Yes, St. Louis, which is a moderate-priced metro area.
This place would sell for at about $350K in Webster Groves, my mother’s suburb. Even her 60-year old, 1600 sq ft. 4 bed 2 bath that needs lots of work would sell about $225K (30% off peak prices) and it doesn’t have granite in the kitchen (to say the least)
Could you even build it for $200K?
Maybe in some Detroit or Cleveland suburbs a property like this would sell so low. I was cruising out of state listings to see how other locales stacked up against Chicago, and I saw a 1920s-vintage apt of rare beauty and incredible craftsmanship, 2000 sq feet of herringbone parquet floors ,exquisite millwork,and incredible built in cabinetry, 3 beds, 2 baths, in Shaker Heights for $140K at the peak. You could not touch a place like this for less than $400K in Chicago, or $275K in St. Louis.
But then, you think, if I lived in Cleveland, would I even be employed? So $140K is perhaps a little over-the-top for that location.
I saw one in north Evanston that had a 5-car garage, and the garage fronted on Sheridan Road.
I was walking back down to Rogers Park from the B’hai temple in Wilmette on a fine summer day, and I gaped at that garage for a long time. It seemed not to belong there, but it looked as old as the 50s vintage house to which it was attached. I didn’t know Evanston let anyone build a garage like that.
Yes, I love Winnetka and think it is one of the loveliest suburbs in the world, but Irvine has better weather, and CA in general has spectacular scenery unmatched almost anywhere else. So, while I prefer the Chicago area to any other, I can see the attractions of other places, especially those that don’t get down to 5 degrees with a wind chill of -40.
And, much as I love Chicago, I believe our prices are insane, and so does everyone else because sales are very slow. I won’t repost the link for the ugly Edgewater bungalow for $998K. Suffice it to say that in every neighborhood and suburb, the prices are in extreme overshoot relative to the area’s incomes and rentals.
“Many many REOs featured on this blog had similar profile as this one.”
Then perhaps the price-drops aren’t as bad as portrayed on this blog. Perhaps things aren’t so bad after all!
Or perhaps in a year or two, a 21% drop will seem mild.
Time will tell.
No, no. They get credit for the amount that they are owed plus atty fees and costs. I think they have to produce a small check for clerk’s fees and doc stamps. I haven’t bid at a sale for a bank since the early to mid 80s, but I remember the paralegal in charge handing me a check, in the neighborhood of 50-100 dollars.
Once there was a bidding war, and a vulture was upping the bidding by 100 a pop, the minimum bid increase, and everybody was getting really bored, so somebody who just wanted to speed things up raised the bid by a bunch. Both previous bidders shut up, and the guy says, no, no, I didn’t really mean it!! I don’t have the money!! And the clerk just accepted that and went back to the bidding with the vulture and bank, the former went up by reasonable amts after that.
I don’t remember who won; I remember the bidding, because it almost never happened.
That’s horns silly. the devil has HORNS.
Because he is horny. See that movie with Al Pacino.
It’s true, their collateral assets are shrinking. It’s also true that they are having to put more debt on the books (ex. SIV buybacks, credit card defaults etc).
If it was just a matter of meeting reserve requirments, then the overnight lending spread between banks wouldn’t have been going up much. Since it’s been going up, that’s hording.
Irvine is more like Naperville, in almost every way. Sometimes I slam it too hard, but it does look great when you drive around. Big palm trees. Very nice place really. Just not in the same league as Winnetka.
And too bad prices are crazy everywhere. Very sad that Chicago gets more like LA, and not the other way around.
California has a very nice desert — out around Palm Springs…perhaps people should not go all the way to Phoenix. Anyway, people adjust. I know folks who will pay money to sit in a sauna. “Ëveryone wants to live here” == crowded beyond beleif. AZ is a beutiful state, and I am not surprised that it is filled with many CA transplants.
Finally, the common wall cuts the price of this place by at least 33%. Look at the prices in Foothill Ranch for similar. $739k is WTF++.
This is evergreen plan#3, a plan 4 just sold for $690K, with 300sf plus feet big than this one. and a plan 2 also just sold for $640K.
Based on these two houses, this reasonable prices for this house should be around $670K.
Sing it loud and proud tonye! Yeah, I get tired of hearing about how someone’s log cabin in timbuktu cost $3 and a pair of used underwear as well…
I live in Irvine, work in Irvine, and will buy my next house in Irvine so IRs blog is very “close to home” for me. I don’t think I’d hang around near as much if I was shoveling my friggin’ driveway in flyover country or chillin’ with the coyotes in AZ. I do find the insights of some of our out-of-state brethren useful at times and often entertaining as well. The “my god that apartment thousands of miles away from me in some city I have never visited before should be worth $100 max!!!” is a waste of web server storage space.
Gentlemen all –
Let’s change the discussion for a moment. Let me posit this: none of the home “owners” could afford these houses then or now. We are simply at a price level that is completely unprecedented. A buyer can only afford what the bank says you can “afford” unless you are a 100% cash buyer. If median income in Irvine for a homeowner is $100K (for the sake of argument) they can onlyl afford 3-400K home based on proven historical banking / financial standards. How does anyone believe or make a logical case for median home prices in the $6-700K range?
Do you really believe that every one in OC makes $250K / year? Many do but, I’m certain that it is not the standard. And most importantly, very few people have the cash to pay these prices. The BANKS are the ones that determine what you can have and afford. If they give money away to anyone with a pulse and provide 100% financing with NegAm loans based on no documentation then many people can afford $6-700K prices but, if you have to have 20% down with proven income then you find that people can afford 3-4 times their income (provided they have good credit) in a home. This means that we are looking at a very large regression to a 35 year mean.
Let’s discuss… I would like to know what do you make and what do you have? Could you sell house to yourself at these prices?
I have to chime in here and say that while I AZ’s original estimate of $200k for this home is low his larger point about the continuing refrain of the “Irvine/OC premium” is still inflating perceptions. Yes, there are lots of jobs there. Yes, many of them pay well. But not that well and not enough of them.
I think other interesting thing is this premium for communities. As a native California who never lived in the OC it’s somewhat humorous to me to see so much made for a “house in the foothills” versus the “gang ridden older OC communities”. To me, it’s not that much different. It’s still OC where, for the most part, people who can’t afford San Diego or want to commute to their job in LA live.
There’s no doubt that newer, better planned communities that effectively eliminate some economic classes of people will command more money*. That’s a no brainer. But how much more? And how long will those communities be able to maintain their “integrity”? After all, let’s be honest, it’s that economic sieve that separates them from the other places (and age of the buildings of course).
My point here is that saying a home like this can rent for $3k a month because of where it is is a pretty slippery measure of value and not one intrinsic to the property in any way. These things change over time.
As well as the economic upheavals we’re now enjoying there are going to be some other interesting challenges to these communities as time marches forward.
*And I’m not advocating for the qualities that make up these communities, only pointing out the obvious. What makes these communities “desirable” is the lack of economic diversity amongst it’s inhabitants, little else.
Reynolds –
You are correct. We had a huge speculation influx of California residents snapping up homes in AZ as “investments”.
People in CA have been inflating their house prices for almost 10 years now. Your economy has to pay people on average 10K-15K more there just to keep people from moving out due to economic pressure.
As a result, there are a lot of screwed people in AZ how bought at California prices which are now correcting.
I chose to rent rather than play that game. Looks like I won that debate.
Exactly!
That’s exactly the point I have been trying to make and the constant mantra that this question elicits is this “it is different here” as the “irvine premium” crowd unleashes a salvo of groupthink.
The point that they are really making is that people in Irvine are willing to sacrifice savings accounts, retirement, etc in order to stretch themselves in order to live on this sacred land.
Doesn’t wash with me, but we’ll see. These house prices are going to drop like a rock in the next couple of years so we’ll see who has the last laugh.
🙂
I see a lot of discussion about land and it’s value in this thread.
I am willing to accept there is a land premium in the OC; however I question how developers used this land during the irrational exuberance years.
Let me explain….
When I go to open houses it is amazing to see how many houses / condos are crammed together with pathetic “yards”. I’m sure anyone who has ever attended an OC open house has felt at least a little claustraphobic.
We all know the actual houses (materials, construction, etc) are not worth very much…. just look around the US to see how much comparable houses go for…..
Will developer’s decisions to cram houses hurt the OC?
When will people decide: “Land premium? for what? this ridiculously small lot… that has another ‘detached’ house on all 4 sides.”
So….. OK, I’m willing to accept OC land is worth more. Why do people want to live on top of eachother though?
You can’t just take lot size and multiply a premium $ / sq. ft to get the value….. you need to consider how that lot of land was developed… that effects the value…
tonye,
ummm, I was talking about the assertion from Laura that this would not sell ANYWHERE for less than $200K.
I disagreed.
That is all.
eeeeewwww.
My house is on the space coast, Florida. We just paid off our house.
No way could we buy our own house, even at the reduced price I think we could get for it now. Even if we put 50% down.
Yeah, I guess I hadn’t thought of how much the speculation across the southwest (AZ, Vegas) was driven by Californians. Probably to a large degree, just like you say. Interesting point.
Still though, prices in places near economic hubs where you can earn more money will always cost more (even if they shouldn’t cost anything close to what people think they’re worth now), and regardless of weather or any of those other soft factors that make an area “special” you can just earn more money in parts of the OC or LA than you can anywhere in AZ or PA. Prices have to drop everywhere to get in line with income levels, but income and prices will always be lower in Arizona.
Interesting point. I’d hadn’t really thought about the extent to which speculation in Arizona and Vegas was driven by Californians instead of just locals.
Still, as prices will drop everywhere to get in line with actual income levels, you can still just earn more money in places like Irvine, other parts of the OC, and LA than you ever will in AZ or PA. That won’t change even as the cost of housing drops, and people will continue to pay more, on a relative basis, to live near those economic hubs. Regardless of any of those debatable factors that make a place “special” (and I would personally maintain there is *nothing* special about PA but that’s just me) you will always be able to earn more money in parts of California than you can earn anywhere in AZ or PA. That means the homes will always be worth more, on a relative basis (not current level crazyiness), and you can’t just compare a tract home in one location to one in the other. It’s apples and oranges.
Geez, I was off the computer for 3 days and missed all the good stuff!
Someone comments re: banks foreclosure bids: “They bid the amount of their loan because then they can carry it on their books at the full loan amount and, thus, not take an immediate write-off. If the loan were $720,000 and they bid $600,000, they would carry the (depreciating) asset at $600,000 instead of $720,000 and have to take an immediate $120,000 write off.”
Actually, the banks need to take the charge-off that fiscal quarter in which it is foreclosed to write the properties to market values. The accountants look at REO valuations, there’s no luck hanging out a year or so without writing this stuff down! But banks base REO valuations on appraisals or updated brokers’ opinions of value, and when the market falls as fast and furiously as it has, the valuations are based on lagging data. Also, the vast majority of foreclosures are through the biggest banks (smaller banks have been out of SFR mortgages for years except the thrifts) – they are still trying to find staff to handle the sheer volume of REO’s they are dealing with. Yikes. Which is why you’re seeing writeoffs and additional loss provisions piling up. The banks are and will be giving back the profits they made on these products over the last few years through the losses they are taking now.
Will all the hedge fund bonus boyz have to give back all the $200MM bonuses and the 49,000 sq ft mansions and 500′ yachts they bought with them, as well?
I mean, they SHOULD. These were the people who profited from this rampage, and if the rest of us have to deal with a skittering economy, rampant inflation, and incredibly tight lending standards for reasonable mortgages, as a result of the insanity and criminality of the “boom”, even though we may or may not have participated, let alone profited, then why should the people who profited the most be permitted to keep their ill-gotten gains?
For the record. I “owned” my townhouse in Tucson prior to moving to Phoenix. I bought before the price run-up. Sold at the peak. Walked with a nice profit. So when you go making statements like “some guy renting an apartment in Phoenix” as though I am some second rate citizen; don’t assume it is because I “cannot” buy.
I never even followed house prices until I decided to move to Phoenix when I realized that my townhouse “value” had balooned. I am one of the winners in the scheme yet I cannot say I am really proud of that.
I considered buying in Phoenix and then when I saw how ridiculously priced the houses were I started doing more research and found blogs like this that helped me fill in the missing pieces of the puzzle.
For Ipo and Tonye to make statements like “chillin with the coyotes” is a pretty ridiculous sterotype. I read that and thought to myself “wow, that’s pretty ignorant”.
Actually the downside in RE is greater in Vegas and AZ than in Southern California.
Our prices were so much higher here that it was more difficult to play the multiple flipper thing… The percentage of “investors” in Vegas and Phoenix was much higher than in SoCal.
IMHO, the price hit in the higher priced RE areas will be due to the 100LTV Option Adjustable Mortgage “homeowners” not the flippers nor the “subprime” borrowers.
People live in NYC too. And in Paris. And in London. Are you gonna tell me that their intrinsic value should be the same as Scottsdale?
Wow, note to self, check to see if first post appeared before cursing the computer and rewriting after error message.