This was first posted on September 11, 2007. Now our desperate sellers are considering becoming floplords. They haven’t moved much on the price, but now they are offering the unit for rent at $2,395. If this is a fair rental rate (it probably is), then the property is worth about $382,300 with a gross rent multiplier of 160. The rent finance value would be $378,914 assuming a 6.5% interest rate. Basically, this unit is still overpriced by about $200,000. Perhaps they can hold on until about 2025 when a rent of $3,620 will justify their asking price.
You got to keep them separated
Come Out And Play — The Offspring
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Have you ever stopped to contemplate why a detached home of similar size and character sells for a significant premium over attached product? It isn’t just the noise. In my opinion, there is a deeper psychological issue in play here. There is something about being able to clearly identify a specific object as “mine,” that you cannot obtain from an attached condo. Intellectually, you might know there are property lines at the walls, but when you look at an attached condo, you see one massive building you only own a part of. It is not as emotionally satisfying.
Today’s property is a detached condo. This kind of product obtains the highest possible density in a detached format. There are versions that get higher density than the property shown, but make no mistake, these properties are tightly packed.
New Asking Price: $579,000
Old Asking Price: $589,000
Income Requirement: $147,250
Downpayment Needed: $117,800
Purchase Price: $634,000
Purchase Date: 9/25/2006
Address: 40 Duet, Irvine, CA 92603
1st Loan $507,200
Downpayment $126,800
Beds: 2
Baths: 2.5
Sq. Ft.: 1,145
$/Sq. Ft.: $514
Lot Size: –
Type: Condominium
Style: French
Year Built: 2004
Stories: Two Levels
Area: Quail Hill
County: Orange
MLS#: S504277
Status: Active
On Redfin: 4 days
From Redfin, “QUAIL HILL BEAUTY IS TOP OF THE LINE!! If your clients are looking for style, here it is. Two SEPARATE MASTERS plus COMPUTER NICHE and roomy PRIVATE stone PATIO create a perfect retreat from the world. Walk to Starbucks, market, shops, three pools, tennis, parks, even a GYM. Tucked away just outside the gates to Shady Canyon and near the new Kaiser hospital, all major highways and nearby Laguna Canyon, the BEACH is just a latte away. Look at pix. This place has CLASS!”
Intermittent CAP lock PROBLEM…
Notice how roomy the roomy patio is? I guess if you get a 12′ x 12′ exterior space these days that is spacious. Sitting in a cavern surrounded by two story walls isn’t my ideal retreat from the world.
What are pix? Is it classier to say pix or pictures?
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Do you think many families with household incomes close to $150,000 that have $117,800 in the bank will want to live in a cramped 2/2? IMO, this is the kind of property someone making close to the median income should be able to afford. You could probably rent this place for $2,400 to a stable renter, so the gross rent multiplier of 160 puts the value at $384,000 for an owner occupant. The income requirement would be $96,000.
Just for the record, this was not a particularly good investment. After one year of ownership, if the seller gets his asking price and pays a 6% commission, he stands to lose $80,340.
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Since this post was on Duet, I thought I would share with you what is, in my opinion, one of the finest guitar duets ever performed: Boston — Hitch a Ride. The duet starts 2:30 into the video.
I didn’t know Brad Delp died this year. 🙁
Day is night in new york city
Smoke, like water, runs inside
Steel idle trees to pity
Every living things thats died
Gonna hitch a ride
Head for the other side
Leave it all behind
Never change my mind
Gonna sail away
Sun lights another day
Freedom on my mind
Carry me away for the last time
Oh yeah
Life is like the coldest winter
People freeze the tears I cry
Words of hail their minds are into
Ive got to crack this ice and fly
Gonna hitch a ride
Head for the other side
Leave it all behind
Never change my mind
Gonna sail away
Sun lights another day
Freedom on my mind
Carry me away for the last time
Oh yeah
first post!
—–
What the hell does “the BEACH is just a latte away” mean? That is one of the lamer realtorspeak phrases I’ve ever seen. Quail Hill is very close to the beach as the crow flies, but driving down Laguna Canyon can be a real pain in practice. Maybe if you drink your latte really slowly, you can get to Main Street Beach in Laguna in a single unit of latte.
I wonder how many lattes away the Courthouse in Santa Ana is?
This place is not going to rent for $2,400. More like $1,800 and it is only worth about $250,000. Just becasue there is a starbucks on the corner does not make a property worth 2X.
Style: French. hmmmm
Reminds me a council house from a 60’s British housing estate.
It’s appropriate that the current owners like the color red because their finances will be in the red with this sale,
The living room layout is indeed cramped. Note how that oversized red chair is blocking a great deal of the couch. Makes the room look even smaller.
Perhaps they should stick with French provencial furniture for its dainty dimensions?!?
Darn Nano, this is the same as my place. You mean I can’t get $700K for it?!
These detached courtyard style homes by Cal Pac are very popular – Wisteria in West Irvine, San Simeon in NorthPark, Cortile in Woodbury, obviously they were also built at QH as well. This is a plan 1, and has sold around my neighborhood recently for around $500-525K. The next model up, which is 1425sf, just closed last week at $600K. If these people take low $500’s, I think they’ll be able to sell it right now…
“This is the type of property that someone with a median income should be able to afford”.
Thank you for saying this. The property you feature here is a passably pretty attached house with production kitchen cabinets and other standard appointments throughout. Yet the price asked is a “custom” price, that ought to buy a truly custom kitchen and comparably polished and elegant appointments throughout such a small place. It’s a nice place for a single or couple but an awfully cramped dwelling for a family with children, and it’s unbelievable that a family with the Irvine median income of $84K can’t afford something like this.
And if a nice, newer place like this is unaffordable to people with Irvine’s high median income, what of Chicago, where one-bed apartments with 800 sq ft in “marginal” neighborhoods are priced above what is affordable for the median family income of $57K? By “marginal” I mean a nieghborhood that is mostly middle or upper class but is still stuck with pockets of sluminess and crime, like my area?
A one-bed in my area, in need of work and with high maintenance, is asking anywhere from $140K to $170K. Figuring on 20% down, that leaves mortgages of $110K to$140K, for high-maintenance apts where assessments run $300-400K a month and that are suitable only for one person occupancy. A single person usually makes $35K-$55K at most financial and white collar occupations here in Chicago. We are talking units in neighborhoods that still have “problems” even though they are not slums. So, while this might sound cheap to the denizens of SoCal, it is not cheap if you consider that 2.5X your income for a mortgage is the most you can safely go when you are adding high maintenance and escalating taxes.
A two-bed condo here, in a ‘marginal’ neighborhood, that is barely big enough to contain a couple, and cramped with a kid or two, is priced at an average of $300K. If it is in a GOOD neighborhood, it is more like $375K.
Townhouses are priced at an average of $450K. We are talking places with no kind of yard, a short driveway, often located on dismal, semi-blighted streets right next to the el train right-of-way.
And detached SF homes are unaffordable. $375K will buy you an old bungalow on the northwest side, far from public transit and retail, that needs a lot of work and has an old kitchen.
An SF of any size, say 1800 sq ft 1910 era two story that needs much work, is priced at around $650K, in an area that, though very pretty and with many urban amenities, is still burdened with crime and pockets of blight. You can’t let your kids out to play unsupervised around here and you certainly wouldn’t send them to public schools. We aren’t necessarily talking great architecture, either- we are talking a plain 2-story brick box with stodgy, vaguely “prairie style” styling. If the place has real architectural distinction, tack on an extra couple hundred thousand dollars.
I often “visit” other city areas via the realtors.com site to see how they are priced, and the story is the same across the country. If the prices are cheap, beware! That means the city is a place where you can’t make a decent living and/ or has no cultural or recreational amenities of any kind and probably has skyrocketing crime and that industry and capital are fleeing, like Detroit or St. Louis or Cincinnati.
So, Irvine does not look overpriced compared to the country overall, though I know it is and I know for sure my area is.
Absolutely everything everywhere is shockingly overpriced relative to the local economy and to the incomes of prospective buyers.
Also, a word about the income:mortgage ratio.
Prior to the 80s, the acceptable multiple for the mortgage was 2.5X the borrower’s income. My own mother bought in 1971, with a downpayment fully 40% of the selling price, and her mortgage was only 1.25% her income. In other words, her mortgage was only slightly larger than her yearly income. Yet I remember we were sort of “sqeezed” that first year of ownership, even though Mom had no car payments.
In the 1980s, when I remember seeing the first adjustable mortgages, 4X your income became an acceptable ratio, even though the interest rates were horrifying. A young couple I knew bought a huge house for exactly that multiple of their income on a 16% mortgage, and I’ll let you guess how long it took them to lose thier center-hall colonial.
4X your income may seem conservative by modern standards but it is really much, much too high a multiple. Remember that you will be responsible for many expenses that as a tenant you never had to bother your head about. Plus, most folks now have multiple car payments and massive CC bills.
We should return to the 2.5X income standard. A “no down” fixed mortgage would be acceptable with this kind of ratio. 4X your mortgage is a huge load, especially in areas with high taxes, or if you have other debt and/or a large family. As for “no down” , it might be better for a buyer to go “no down” on a 2.5X income mortgage, and keep their savings in reserve for sudden expenses and surprise repairs, than to put all their cash into the down payment and have no reserves.
“the BEACH is just a latte away”
I hope the carnival barkers selling glamor get foreclosed on themselves, and are forced to move to bitter cold Cleveland.
Now I think I’m going to vomit.
With a 20% downpayment and a 4X home price, the loan is just over 3X. We had a post a few days ago that showed lenders are still willing to loan 5.5X. This is down from the 7x – 8X you could obtain during the bubble (actually 10X or more if you went liar, I mean stated.)
At least you have pockets of affordability in Chicago. We don’t in Irvine. I suppose you could find something affordable in Santa Ana, but I think I will pass.
Sorry, but Boston was a nice band, but strictly commercial (as Frank Zappa did say in Apostrophe). The kind of band that would have a Sears Poncho… not a real Poncho (again, Zappa in Apostrophe).
For a real guitar duet… Freddie King Live, circa 1977, check out Freddie King and Eric Clapton on Farther on Up the Road. A live recording on LP….
And if you want one of BEST ever guitar solos…. ZAPPA in APOSTROPHE…. I believe it’s either on Kozmik Debris or at the end of Montana (“I may be moving to Montana soon, to become a dental floss tycoon”).
Back to Freddie and Eric… I actually blew a midrange on my old ADS 810s being driven by a gargantuous Sansui 200 watt receiver ( this would be around 1980).
The factory was so impressed that anyone could blow a midrange that they wanted it back for inspection and paid for the replacement.
You see…. Freddie is on the left, Eric on the right, and they play off each other and end up together.
They start at 9, move on to 10 and then blast past 11 to a full 12 that would make Spinal Tap jealous.
Oh.. why would someone want a detached home? Simple, if the guy next door has a pair of ADS 810s and a 200 watt Sansui and a copy of Freddie King Live, you most definitely DO NOT want to SHARE a wall.
“Tucked away just outside the gates…”
I guess the word “nestled” does not work anymore, so now they say “tucked away”.
At first glance this condo looks very nice and it has some things going for it – attached garage and no common walls. The problem for me is that it is just too small.
This should be a starter condo at about 250k. But who knows – I hear the fed is busy deciding on how big a rate cut to give.
Chicago is a huge City. Irvine would be but a neighborhood in Chicago.
Think of OC as Chicago, and then you can see that OC does have pockets of affordability and ghettos. Think Santa Ana, Stanton, Garden Grove and Anaheim as the “affordable”, “working class” areas of OC.
Soon to be affordable again will be Huntington Beach, Costa Mesa, Westminster, Fullerton, Yorba Linda, El Toro, Laguna Hills, Mission Viejo and Tustin.
Historically, Seal Beach, Newport and Laguna have been the most expensive. Irvine was in the second tier -pretty much by itself. The cities “soon to be affordable” were in the third tier and the “currently affordable” were always the bottom tier.
The South County Cities were always cheaper than Irvine because of the El Toro Y. Even today, they are cheaper.
“…Two SEPARATE MASTERS plus COMPUTER NICHE…”
What, you were too lazy to put shelving and doors on the COMPUTER NICHE and turn it into a cupboard?
Shame on you 😉
I’d pay $200,000 for that. On second thought it is Irvine, so maybe I’d go as high as $250,000.
I’m not trying to troll here. For anyone who comes back and says “but there are high incomes in Irvine to support high prices so we’ll never see $200/sq ft,” I urge you to consider the economic principle of supply and demand.
This market is ultimately going to come down to supply and demand. When there are five times as many homes for sale as there are buyers, prices will come down. If economic growth slows down and no more jobs are being added (and maybe some are lost), demand for housing will fall and people might even be forced to move away, adding to the inventory of homes for sale.
tonye,
Can you find a link to either an audio or a video for the duet you mentioned? I would like to hear it.
I agree with joesixpack, supply and demand is the key. If only buyers could get through their heads that if they don’t pay the high prices, sellers would be forced to lower these extreme prices. IMO the prices were driven up by greedy RE people and homeowners. If buyers would only stick to their guns, then we would see prices go down to resonable levels. But you know there is always a dumb sucker out there that will pay the price, then pay later too.
This is a great website! In fact it is a daily stop for me since I discovered it. I recently sold my house in Talega before the blood letting really started happening. I missed peak by a year and I was able to get out with minimal loss. I know this site is for Irvine, but I have to tell you all that Talega is really destined for a blood bath. Similar homes in size view and appointments to mine have sold for 20% less just three months later. it is down right scary how close I was to losing my shorts. Talega with its distance to good jobs and the fact that they are still building and the fact that many of the residents have jobs dependent on the housing market is destined for a blood bath. Almost every listing mentions a short sale. Some that are not short sales even have to say that they are not short sales because people just assume that they are.
Does anyone know of similar site to this with regard to Talega/San Clemente. I ultimately would like to return to the San clemente area because I do think it is a great place to live especially for a beach lover. I am high on the long term of San Clemente.
On another note of which you probably already know. Tempo has put a cap on the number characters allowed in the property description. Hence, the use of pix in lieu of pictures. The Realtors are just trying to pack as much info as they possibly can given the contraint.
I saw an ad for a subdivision where there are a few repos and many of homes are still for sale by the builder, it read: “few neighbors, low traffic….”
LOL
Get rid of the mortgage interest and property tax deductions and we’ll be back down to 2.5x income. These over-extended households (> 4x) will suffer greatly.
But you may be preaching to the choir here. It’s hard to plan everything you want to achieve (and have some freedom) and pay more than 2.5-3x your household income on a home.
Exactly,Tonye.
For example, my area is one of the pockets of “affordability” on the north side. My area is very pretty, with great architecture and wonderful tree-lined streets.
My area is also sometimes very scary. Our crime rates are unacceptable to many middle income buyers, especially those with kids.
For real “affordability” you either have to go to an absolute slum on the south or far west side, or to a pocket of the city so remote the nearest rail line is 2 miles away. I could get a GREAT one-bed for about $80K down at 79th street, if I dare go there.
It stacks up a lot like OC, and so does every other city area I view. They might seem cheap compared to this burg, but when you peel the onion on “cheap” locales, you see no business base, steep unemployment, or a total dearth of accessibility , retail, and/ or cultural and recreational amenities.
That reminded me of an ad I saw for portola springs that called it “conveniently located” – to what? Dead brush? Dirt paths? It’s about as far away from convenient as you can get.
You could try http://caliguy2699.blogspot.com
He does alot with south OC, but not sure if there’s been alot on Talega specifically
We have thought about launching a website covering all of Orange County, but I don’t have the time to write for both.
Yes, Talega is going to be destroyed, and it will happen before Irvine. First Talega, then Ladera Ranch and Rancho Santa Margarita. The wave of destruction will move north until it wipes out Irvine.
I might have given the realtor the benefit of the doubt on saving space if she hadn’t thrown in the BS about the latte…
ipoplaya,
I only know what it is worth to me…….if someone wants to pay north of 500K to live in a 1,000sq. ft. crackerbox in irvine……thats their business.
Give em hell laura !!!!!!!
But for someone drinking Kool Aid, the beach is right next door… LOL 🙂
For the record, the bass guitar in Apostrophe is played by Jack Bruce (of Cream fame). It’s considered one of the best bass performances of all time.
I was looking at Zip the other day and I saw a condo that was listed at about $297 sq ft…………We will see lots of properties at $250 sq ft by this time next year.
As for the fools that think that because they live on a hill with quails their places are worth more………they will have the greatest surprise of all.
Talega is a gorgeous area. The pricing seems to be similar to newer developments in Irvine, but you get hilltop and ocean views (something commenters here repeatedly remind everyone Irvine lacks). But it takes a lot for me to consider commuting up to Irvine for work for 30+ minutes. Maybe pricing there will soon negate this concern…
Too Funny!
The numerous reasons not to live in Chicago are entirely unrelated to housing prices.
Prices won’t come down until someone agrees to take the financial hit. If you are $100k upside down and can tread water, you will in hopes of better times ahead. The banks aren’t exactly lining up to drop prices either. Since no one is eager to place that big red entry in their balance sheet the process of deflating prices will necessarily be dragged out over time.
Just as democracy needs informed, responsible and engaged voters to function properly, capitalism needs informed, responsible and engaged consumers.
This is depressing, you see, as small and “Tucked away” this place may be, it’s apparently not small or tucked away enough for potential Buyers like PeterUK, you see, I don’t qualify as a first time buyer because I earn more than $109K yet I don’t quite earn enough ($147K in this case) to qualify for the Morgage….I either need to ask for a pay cut or a raise. Methinks the former would be a piece of Cake 😉 “Cold and lonely, tired and bored just like the Day before, missing out on Life’s rewards, of that you can be sure” Nik Kershaw.
LOL!!!
For those interested in seeing more bank REO property, Wells Fargo’s site is http://www.pasreo.com.
The list pricing offered by WFHM on Irvine properties appears to still be very poor in terms of per sf numbers. From what I hear, banks are sticking to their guns still on offers. Spoke at length a couple of weeks back with an REO realtor that does a bunch of business with CW and he said Countrywide has been holding out for 99-100% of their computed list prices.
It is only a matter of time……….the march downward will be led by long term homeowners with lots of equity. Homeowners that need/want to sell in a hurry…..and will make a good profit when selling 30% below 2006 comps.
Then what happens is the auditing firms make the banks write down their real estate holdings……then the fun begins. Another year or so before we see real downward pressure on home prices.
What’s with the funky wallpaper?? I thought people in SoCal had better taste.
🙂
skye
Is it me or does it seem that we (bears) are always saying that the prices are going to fall any minute now? Next spring or next summer. Sigh. I hope so. I still can’t believe that I would have to make $147K to afford a cramped 2B condo with over $100K in the bank. I know that there is no fundamental reason for this but I still can’t shake the feeling that the normal market price will be 4X to 5X income. Essentially, making us slaves to our banks and lenders for a lifetime.
How much did that place sell for when it was new?
Because it sold new in 2004, and whatever it sold for then, it’s going to come close to bottoming out at again. Take that number, and if you are optimistic, add 10%. But that’s about it.
The homeowners with ‘lots of equity’ are going to drive the prices down. Isn’t this only a very small portion of homeowners?
Who exactly is in control of the pricing collapse right now? The struggling subprime owners, the bank repos or the long term homeowners?
Call me old fashioned, but for more than a half of a million dollars, expect more than two bedrooms and a computer niche.
I agree that this is a place for a single. A couple would merely be biding time in it.
Median household income in Irvine is $82,827. However median income for year round workers, individuals, is lower. Males – $78,986, Females – $53,130.
The buyers and investors.
No CDOs, means banks have to hold their loans, means tougher loans.
Buyers being pinched on loans, will continue to pinch the sellers.
Eventually the banks will give up the ghost on the REOs. Probably going to be lead by San Diego and Sacramento where monthly volume of REOs going to the bank are half the size of the volume of homes being sold on the MLS and rising.
You could probably devote a whole site to an area like Santa Ana, where there’s four years of inventory on the market and counting.
Talk about your subprime disaster.
IR, I found it interesting that you addresses the condo verses SFH issue. I’m currently renting a condo and the notion of owning my unit is extrememly unappealing. For me it comes down to privacy, physical separation from my neighbors and of course much enhanced sense of satisfaction from ownership. The idea of being financially tied to an apt where I will with regularity need to deal with rude neighbors and their barking dogs, loud late night music, Televisions just turns me off. For me Condos are just apartments, granted some can be quite nice but they are still apartments that expose you to all the potential irritants and hassles that apartment living brings. I’m just aghast at what people have been willing to pay for “Apartments” here in OC. I have always viewed purchasing a condo as a huge compromise that should come at a significant discount compared to an SFR. I don’t care how upscale a condo is, all it takes is one inconsiderate neighbor on the other side of that common wall and you are screwed. I have ridden my bike through QH and yes these buildings look OK from the outside but these are from my perspective just rows and rows of apartments. If I am unable to get into an SFR I would much prefer to rent one of these upscale condos and retain the option of fleeing with 30 days notice.
N Cty,
There are plenty of homeowners in Irvine sitting on big equity positions. Not everyone bought in 2004 or later.
Northwood and Harvard Square are populated by many that bought new in 1996-1999. They will have made a substantial profit. West Irvine and NorthPark were sold in 2001-2003, and people there are still comfortably ahead based on today’s pricing. I bought in ’01, and even with a 12% decline in prices so far this year, I still have over 75% appreciation. That number is falling everyday, but it’s a slow process to unwind years of double-digit appreciation and you can still sell a home if you price it aggressively.
Plus, some buyers didn’t get the memo about the correction. They get dropped off by the Sucker Bus and buy up to what they can qual for today…
Nice tribute to Brad Delp…and the rest of NYC today, of all days. And I liked that guitar duet, too.
Other than the weather, I think Chicago has a lot going for it. Great food, a world class symphony, good culture, the Cubs, the Bears, the Irish…. in many ways I do like Chicago.
It’s just that I couldn’t handle the cold “breeze” coming from the lake in winter, or the sticky hot weather in the summer.
I can’t even afford to rent this place
It’s on CD.
http://www.amazon.com/Apostrophe-Frank-Zappa/dp/B0000009SI
Also, lookie here… ( you might wanna watch your wallet and make sure the ‘Central Scrutinizer’ doesn’t get ya )
http://www.zappa.com/fz/discography/index.html
You might also want to listen to Joe’s Garage (parts 1 and 2)
“It’s shaped like a Telefunken UB47”
And of course, the immortal lines in “Dancing Fool” in “Sheik Yerbouti” (one of his funniest -by far- and commercial albums):
“…
The disco folks all dressed up
Like they’s fit to kill
I walk on in ‘n’ see ’em there
Gonna give them all a thrill
When they see me comin’
They all steps aside
They has a fit while I commit
My social suicide, I’m a
Dancin’ fool, I’m a
Dancin’ fool
The beat goes on
And I’m so wrong
The beat goes on
And I’m so wrong
The beat goes on ‘n’ I’m so wrong
The beat goes on ‘n’ I’m so wrong
The beat goes on ‘n’ I’m so wrong
I may be totally wrong, but I’m a
Dancin’ fool, I’m a
Dancin’ fool
Youwsa, youwsa, youwsa
I got it all together now
With my very own disco clothes, hey!
My shirt’s half open, t’show you my chains
‘N’ the spoon for up my nose
I am really somethin’
That’s what you’d prob’ly say
So smoke your little smoke
Drink your little drink
While I dance the night away, I’m a
Dancin’ fool, I’m a
Dancin’ fool, (etc., etc.)
I may be totally wrong, but I’m a
I may be totally wrong, but I’m a
I may be totally wrong, but I’m a
FOOL-uh!”
And let’s not forget “Jewish Princess”…
“…
with garlic aroma
that can level Tacoma”.
I love Frank Zappa’s music.
This is a compilation that has the live performance.
http://www.amazon.com/dp/B000026PLA?tag=unlockaustin-20&camp=14573&creative=327641&linkCode=as1&creativeASIN=B000026PLA&adid=0YE247ZSN8P0ZQ46VAFR&
By and by you can not go wrong with Freddie King’s live concerts.
He was a real blues giant. More of a rocker than Ray Vaughn and BB King and he held his notes a bit longer than Clapton -who sort of picks- but not so long as BB King who makes Lucille hang those notes for dear life.
Excellent tunes. They’ll get your mind off RE for sure. 😉
I love Chicago, as I am a lover of large, dense old northern cities. Love the architecture, the “look” , the bustle, the amenities. I could also easily love SoCal, a very different sort of place, for the scenery and style and people. Everyone here talks about the “narcissism” and “materialism” of the SoCal crowd, but it couldn’t be any worse than what I encounter among trendoids here in the midwest, who mortgage thier condos for Porches and plastic surgery. People are all alike.
But the place has become bubbleicious and so has every other locale in the u.s.
I give you the comparison only to tell you that your area, while bubbly, is in keeping with the rest of the hyper-inflated U.S. housing market in having unsustainably high prices on homes purchased with criminal mortgages, helped along by cash out refis and ludicrous debt:income multiples.
We are in bad, bad trouble as a country. We haven’t really sensed the depth of the housing bezzle, and won’t until the trillion dollars or so worth of resets that are coming on this fall happen.
The nastiest part of all this is that so much of our economy nation-wide is tied to housing. The financial sector for example- Chicago is almost totally supported by the financial industry this day. The various subsectors of this field always were laughably overcrowded, and I tremble at the thought of what will happen to me and thousands of others in this burg when the inevitable hemorraghing of financial sector jobs starts to happen. The 40,000 jobs lost in the mortgage industry so far are nothing compared to what will be lost in all divisions of financial as the effects of the mortgage fallout cascade through the rest of the economy.
Because, my dears, we as a nation have very little left outside housing to support ourselves with. We gave our manufacturing away long ago. We can only hope that the activity shifts into other sectors- that we start to relocalize our manufacturing and revive our rail transit. I’m pinning considerable hope on the rails, and consider it a good sign that Buffet has shoveled over $700 million into rail stock. I hope I’m not reading too much into that.
dum
dum
dum dum duuum dum duuumm
dum dum
dum
dum
dum dum duuum dum duuumm
Dream I was an eskimo…
Yep… an extremely great intro.
The other one I can think of is Keith Richards playing the bass in Sympathy for the Devil. He played the lead with the bass for a big chunk of the LP.
I think IR needs to expand his musical universe.
Sympathy for the devil would be a great song too for this website.
“…
Please to meet ya
Hope you know my name
I’m the lender
with your new mortgage terms… “
You should consider using “Tragic Kingdom” from No Doubt as the background theme. 😉
Are you kidding? Chicago’s a hellhole. The traffic is terrible. There is no reverse commute because the old people live in the burbs and work in the city and the young people live in the city and work in the burbs. Even shopping on the weekend is a nightmare since the traffic is so heavy in local neighborhoods. There are no left turn lanes in the city – it’s just expected that when the light turns green 2 or 3 cars will peel out at top acceleration to make a left and 2 or 3 more will go when the light turns yellow. And people create traffic jams themselves for no reason. Once I got stuck in a jam that appeared to have been created by a couple of guys who had stopped on the side of the highway to throw a football back and forth.
The weather’s even worse. You know the old saying – There are two seasons in Chicago: winter and road construction. Either you feel like you’re buck naked underneath arctic clothing when you go out because of the damn wind in the winter or you’re sweltering in the humid summer heat.
As for crime, the week after I moved back to CA my former roommate was attacked from behind and choked until she was unconscious so the attacker could abscond with her purse. Luckily she didn’t sustain any permanent injuries. I was extremely fortunate never to have been attacked since I tended to work late and come home late – maybe because of my size I look like a hard target.
And, to boot, most of it is old, rundown, and really ugly. Especially in the winter when that nasty gray snow is piled up everywhere.
I wouldn’t live there again if you GAVE me a house.
NO F’NG WAY!! This is place is right across the street me. In fact I was walking my dog yesterday, and the owner (or owners wife) was outside. I casually said hello as I walked by and she walked inside. I remember looking at the home and seeing it was for sale. I didn’t grab a brochure, but when I saw the asking price above, I almost choked on my lunch.
It is one of the nicer looking ones in the general area. All of those units though are cunched in there like sardines. There are no yards, except the homes that back to Quail Ridge PWKY, and even then the backyard is just a patio.
..trying to type and eat at the same time
That’s an interesting comment about how we’re going to support ourselves. I completely agree with you. I’m in tech, which has obvious problems in that area, what with all the high tech companies importing H-1B’s if they aren’t just flat out hiring overseas. It’s BS that we don’t have enough high tech people here – companies just don’t want to pay what they’re worth or train them for anything. You have to already have experience in that particular product/language before the company will even consider you. I have almost 15 years experience and have put my resume out numerous times with no response. Luckily I have a pretty stable job already – I just keep looking to keep in practice interviewing in case of the worst. Eventually I’ll have to stop doing what I love – programming – and start managing.
I was just reading in BusinessWeek that China is losing low end manufacturing to other lower cost countries (and because of quality problems). What comes around goes around. Ha ha ha. I don’t mind fair competition, but right now it isn’t fair. Low cost countries don’t treat their workers properly and don’t allow their currencies to float like they should. Maybe when that happens it will be cost effective to bring the factories back here and we can all get hourly factory jobs.
We as Americans are responsible for this. We have to stop voting with our dollars at places like Wal-Mart that encourage these conditions.
Things will really only change when corporations stop seeing third world countries as cheap sources of labor and materials and start seeing them as sources of customers. It’s starting to happen, but not fast enough.
In this site”Talega Real Estate – Homes and Property For Sale “:
http://www.isocal.idxnetwork.com/401831w/index.php?main=filter02
there are 153 entries.
The supply and demand curve is different than most commodities. We are not talking about something that you “buy.” People (even rich people) finance their homes. This makes supply and demand a function of financing available. The financing available is a function rates and guidelines. Those two factors are in complete disarray right now.
The demand for homes could go through the roof, but if people can’t get financing they can’t get a home.
I don’t really agree with the IT statements by Patience above. Even at those working at IT companies, it’s hard to find a really good computer programmer. Among random interviewees, it’s much much harder to find 1 that can do a decent whiteboard answer on a coding question.
I myself, self-taught w/o a Comp Sci degree, managed to eventually break in & keep a software developer job with a leading software design company. The industry is deperate enough to value talent (ie. can you code? how’d you do on the whiteboard quetsion) wherever they can find it regardless of degree, country of origin, immigration hassles, etc.
Come into the games industry. I’m a graphics programmer and I’m CONSTANTLY hounded by recruiters to join their companies, and these aren’t recruiters who work for little shady firms; they work for the actual game development companies. The salaries are good, but the hours still get a bit crazy every now and then. The last time I actually had to look for a job it took me 2 weeks to get hired. I’ve been doing this for 7 years, granted, but the industry is strong, even down in OC.
Keep doing what you love doing. There will always be demand for it, even if it requires you to learn some new tricks.
Really interesting article regarding banks & REO sales
http://sacramento.bizjournals.com/sacramento/stories/2007/09/10/story1.html?b=1189396800%5E1517107
Be patient, these things take a long time to unwind. Look at the downslope on the other side of the .com bubble; it wasn’t instant. Stocks are WAY more liquid than houses are. Crack open a brew, sit back, watch the show and enjoy.
As a rule of thumb… you’re forced into management or -if you’re lucky like me- into SW and System architecture.
I still prototype and then give to the poor younger schmucks who have to turn my stuff into a product while lauding my brilliance and sheer audacity at designing world class algorithms and designs that can jam as much CPU into a single line of code.
Of course, the poor schmucks then mush the whole thing into some newfangled C++ or Java interpretation so that I have to give them a new (you know what) at Peer Review time.
Aaah… life’s good. If you can’t do it with a UINT32 or a void cast then it ain’t worth doing.
And yes, I do agree about the wholesale import of indentured developers and exporting of work to China an India. It’s a fact of life. I has been for longer than 20 years.
It is still very difficult to find good IT talent these days in OC and LA. I am the CFO of an IT staffing firm, mostly programmers, engineers, biz analysts, proj managers, and DBAs. Our problem is still on the recruit side, not the job order side. We have many many requirements from great local companies that simply can’t be filled due to lack of qualified candidates.
Many companies have learned that offshoring the kitchen sink doesn’t work. You need good communicating developers and analysts here in the US to control and manage the dev cycle if you want a quality product. Too many lines of buggy code come back from India and the offshore PMs are nowhere near as good as experienced ones here…
Heck, even Countrywide is still looking for good technical people, and they have somehow managed to keep paying their bills at under Net 30.
Realtors: Home price slump through ’08
Home prices are likely to end 2008 below last year’s peaks as slump is now seen as worse than previously forecast.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/09/11/news/economy/realestate_outlook/index.htm?postversion=2007091110
COUNTRYSLIDE
MORTGAGE LENDER’S SHARES PLUNGE; SEEKS 2ND BAILOUT
http://www.nypost.com/seven/09112007/business/countryslide.htm
Wow, the NAR thinks prices will recover by late 2008… Everyone run out and buy right now!
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/stories/DN-homes_11bus.ART0.State.Edition1.35ab4ef.html
Freddie Mac surveys show that almost 60 percent of home foreclosures in this country are primarily the result of job loss or illness.
…
Almost a third of home purchase mortgages scheduled to close in August were canceled, according to a new poll out Monday.
…
And about 60 percent of mortgage brokers surveyed said they could not refinance adjustable-rate mortgages with increasing rates, according to the poll by Washington, D.C.-based Campbell Communications.
The survey also found that a substantial number of fully approved loan commitments made by lenders were not being honored.
I’m listening to it right now…
A 24/96 recording from my LP at home with my “audio computer” using a Linn/Grado Master/Grado phone preaap/CJ PV9 preamp/M-Audio 24/06 Delta card to a WAV file in a hard drive (about 1.4 GB for both sides of the LP).
Playback: USB hard drive/M-Audio Transit/Grado battery powered headphone amp/Grado SR325i phones.
Dude… Freddie’s on my left ear…… while Eric just teases him on the right…. on and on…
And Mr. Zappa awaits on another bunch of files.
What RE crash? – ooh… there they go…. Freddie and Eric…… oh OH OHO HOHO…. It’s cranked up to 12 now…. You gotta run and get this…. ;-D
I’m listening to Apostrophe right now.
You’re quite right. He plays the bass with a bit of edge distortion like a madman while Zappa plays a very clean guitar tone.
And they play off each other. With a really percussion/drums beat on the background.
I guess I never paid enough attention to this song as it’s instrumental (I must have like listened to it a couple of thousand times at least).
Time to put my son, the aspiring bassist, on this one. Of course, he’ll want a new pedal too.
Back to your Real Estate forum.
“Just as democracy needs informed, responsible and engaged voters to function properly” –Very few exist, this is why the U.S. is not a democracy.
Mortgage brokers say 57% of customers couldn’t refi
http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2007-09-11T133803Z_01_N11406461_RTRIDST_0_USA-HOUSING-BROKER-SURVEY-URGENT.XML
That response was the equivalent of, “I’m just sayin'”
The fact is these houses are selling for 500K right now. Yes, we will likely see more declines, but to think it will drop another 50% is just rubbish.
I for one would like to see a little more follow up on properties that are profiled on this blog (as time permits and information is available of course) to put some of ridiculous assertions in perspective.
Washington Mutual Sees Housing `Near-Perfect Storm’ (Update3)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVd5WiPryyok
Who Cares about Starbucks? I bought an espresso Machine 3 years ago I pull shots now for pennys on the dollar.
What an incrediabal rip off. I’d like a four-Buckachhino Please.
I think any real espresso drinker should get a Machine.
O.C. home prices seen 25% too high
http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2007/09/10/oc-home-prices-seen-25-too-high/
IrvineRenter, this website is truly great, especially the Analysis section. I’ve recent started my own site that will focus on the Federal Reserve’s role. You set a very high bar for analysis and ground-level detail. I’m setting off on a two-week trip, so when I get back my work will be cut out for me.
I have a question for you: I read this write up (your style just cracks me up, by the way) and see that you used a multiple to turn the likely rent ($2,400) into a value. Maybe I didn’t read the right article in the Analysis section here, and if so then I apologize. I’m curious as to how you arrive at the multiple.
I’d also like to know what you think of the CEPR Housing Cost Calculator. I’ve been putting house prices in and using a 10-year holding period to come up with values based on rental equivalents. If it’s a really depressing like box, such as a 600 sq ft condo, then I’ll use a 5-year holding period. With a 10-year holding period, it spit out $320K for the condo you highlighted, but that doesn’t take the monthly fee into account.
Something else occurs to me: Markets overshoot in both directions. Seems to me that the analysis thus far assumes that housing will bottom out at its intrinsic value, but I actually wonder if that might not wind up being overly optimistic. What do you think?
Family Guy…………
As the market turns and prices start to drop you will be shocked at what happens…………many of these homes will end up on the banks shelves for years to come. Eventually the banks just sell them for anything that people will pay. A co-founder of one of my companies picked up a condo in Houston that was originally selling for 1.4 million……he paid 125K.
Fear and Greed…………….
While I wish the 50% sky-is-falling plummet would happen, I am with you FG. I think another 15-20% could happen, depending on how much the government intervenes, and sure hope it does. It would be great to pick up a currently $1M house for $800K.
Another 20% decline puts my place down to the high $400Ks, low $500Ks, which would be roughtly equivalent to an inflation-adjusted 5% appreciation rate over the past six years. That doesn’t sound particularly bubble-like, although there were a few years of run-up before I got in the game…
Square footage prices in the $200s, especially on smaller places, doesn’t sound very probable. One can always hope for such a bargain! I have seen some larger homes sell recently in low $300 range, like $310-320, but they were north of 3,000sf. There is one 3200sf place out there now with a low list price at $305 per sf.
I too live across and down the street on Rhythm. This is another dinky
2 Bdrm. Rent would be about $ 2700.00. Almost ZERO yard. The Garage is a bonus. But the living room is tiny. Whats up with the chair
and the sofa ? This thing will sit on the market till the cows come home at this price. It is a nice area but not that nice. Its tiny at 1150 Sq/Ft.
Price needs to be about $ 400K Max. Poor people that bought at the top are going to get crushed hard.
This web site publishes the sales volume and inventory for Irvine.
http://www.ochomereview.com/homewp/chart/
About a year ago 160-200 homes were selling in a month. This site says that 11 homes closed so far this month……we are on track to sell 40 homes or less in Irvine over in the month of septmeber. If the site is correct and there are about 1200 homes on the market…….the inventory in Irvine will be about 30 months at the end of september………….
This is going to get ugly……..really ugly…………..it will be amazing if prices fall by only 50%.
OMFG!
If that’s accurate we are in for a monumental sh*t storm.
When, Where, and how much is it worth now?
Comparing that figure to the historical number presented on the chart 11 looks to be right in there. In fact the chart presented on that page shows sold properties in Irvine over the past year over 5 day periods, and I can’t see a single-day period with more than 15 sales.
Considering we just had Labor Day and the start of school (both would be downward adjustments when trying to indentify any trends), this is probably meaningless.
Please note that Sales were extremely low around Christmas and New Years last year, even lower than now.
The Total Inventory figures chart on the other hand is more interesting. Though the total numbers are spiking, the overall figures are still off the highs of late 2006 (it would be nice to see a longer history). The interesting part is how much more jagged the line during the uptrend that started in May ’07.
Additionally, the spike in Rental Rates over the past few months is extremely interesting. Using the data, it seems larger units are being offered for rent at a higher rate. Is that seasonal?
We need longer data series to make any real inferences.
To all of you that don’t know how this works…..read this washington mutual article……..
See the ……..”one-time write down”…………that means that the banks are starting value their holdings at less than the thought they were worth. We call this a ….”get out of jail free card”…..its when the mangers proclaim they made a mistake………. As this happens they start to lower the expected value of homes that they own and guess what…….they start to sell them for much less than they thought they were originally worth.
We will see lots of “one-time write downs” over the next 5 years. Every once in a while the senior manager get fired for haveing too many one-timers and the new senior managers get a new shot at the…..”one-time write down”.
Nobody ever wants to face up to the ugly truth of what is really going on…….
Sounds low….I rent it for a heartbeat for 2k a month. My rent in quail hill for 2 bd 1 bth 1 car garage 1000 sq ft is 1785.
The inventory numbers are right Nano. There are 1204 places on the market in Irvine right now. That number was running in the mid to low 1300’s for a good bit, but a bunch of people pulled their listings in recent weeks.
I run the same search everyday, of 2200+ sf homes in Irvine, built after 1980, up to $1.1M. I think I have only seen 6-7 go into escrow over the past month. So few, I can almost remember each of their addresses. I am pretty religious about monitoring this search. Normally see 4-5 price reductions per week. The list drops have been small though, normally $10-20K. People just trying to entice more traffic, not really get a deal done.
Wells Fargo REO just came online in NorthPark at $383 per sf, $980K for 2,600 square feet. Recent comps are on this same exact model home at more like $890-925K. Appears that they priced according to other listings, not what the few relevant comps suggest…
IPOPLAYA – I think there are many people out there that think like you do. Everyone knows RE is bad right now, but at some point in the decline money will come back into the game. It’s all about perceived bargain, and sooner or later the fear that exists right now will be outweighed by the perception of a value. Like it or not, the inflated bubble highs set a psycological bar in people’s collective minds. People would see a house that once sold for $600K now selling at $300 as a true bargain. I believe the floor on this thing is higher than others would lead you to believe.
Where do you get the 160 – 200 homes figure?
I was in a meeting most of today. I heard rumor at this meeting that new home sales for LA, Orange and Riverside counties totalled 116 for the last 30 days. This is the lowest 30 day total ever recorded.
Lendingmaestro called in in our forum on August 8:
http://forums.irvinehousingblog.com/discussion/576/9/most-important-post-ever/
FamilyGuy,
I feel the anguish and anger this market situation is creating for you. It comes through in some of your postings. For your sake, I hope you are right and this correction does not turn into a full scale collapse. Good, hard-working people like yourself who were just providing shelter for their family shouldn’t get hurt this way.
Check out this site:
http://www.orange-county-real-estate-coach.com/weblogirv.html
When times were good this RE agent used to publish all of the closed homes….it was normal to see between 30 and 50 homes a week close.
Also, check out theis site:
http://orangecoastrealestate.com/irvine/irvine_real_estate_trends.htm
and add the homes plus the condos.
By the way, someone has to tell the realtors that when you use the word “classy” in an ad, it tells potential buyers that the place is a spiffed-up trailer park.
I can’t speak for IR, but I think intrinsic value is way over optimistic.
There are two sites with this info….i’ve been trying to post them but they will not post……..
“Banks are allowed to own their premises and offices, but they cannot invest in speculative real estate. Any property that a bank takes back as collateral for a bad loan is OREO or REO, and it is property a bank is supposed to sell. How quickly it has to be sold is debatable, but it must be sold. ”
Does anyone know what the “debatable” time limit is from a regulatory standpoint? I would think that if you marked when the resets on Arms occured and went 90-120 out from there and then added on the regulatory limit of days the bank could hold the property without it being considered speculating, then you may get a timeframe when a pricing decrease may occur…does this seem logical?
If it’s so difficult to find IT talent, why don’t these companies offer some training for programmers in other languages to switch over? My experience is unfortunately in 3 dead languages – COBOL (actually, I just don’t like this one), PowerBuilder, and mostly, ugh, Visual FoxPro. I’ve been with the same company for almost 11 years now – survived at least 3 rounds of layoffs due to my versatility and proven value to management.
If you are intimating that I’m a less than stellar programmer, Anonymous for the moment, let me give you an example from the start of my career. When I first started interviewing for jobs I took a written test at one company. The interviewer gave me an A on the test and then proceeded to tell me that even though I had done better than most experienced programmers and even though I had a degree in Comp Sci and he was impressed with me, his company couldn’t take a chance on someone without experience. I don’t think much has changed since then.
If jobs are so damn plentiful here, why haven’t I even gotten interviews after talking with 3 different recruiters? (I’m not talking about jobs – I’m talking JUST INTERVIEWS.) Oh wait, sorry. I was offered an interview for an instructor’s position.
I am about to get some experience in C#. I’m betting that will turn things 180 degrees.
And thanks for the tip about graphics programming, Genius. Unfortunately, I’m a knucklehead when it comes to visual layouts. My web pages look god awful. As long as someone else lays it out I can code it. But my nephew is graduating with a degree in Comp Sci in December – I’ll tell him.
LMAO tonye, good stuff. I’ve been working a bunch with the ps3 over the past couple of months. It’s good to be back down close to the metal.
By the way, Anonymous for the moment, I’m betting you haven’t looked for a job in recent years, have you? You’ve been employed with the same firm for quite a while right?
And what salary are you offering for the people you are interviewing? I’ve found when responsible for interviewing that this relates directly to the quality of the applicants.
I would assume around here there would be some decent UCI grads looking for jobs. This isn’t the case?
I’m liking the espresso machine I have now as well – you’re right, much cheaper. I’m also fortunate they provide free coffee at work.
Starbucks is good, but I see it as more of a once-in-a-while type place.
Hi IR – I appreciate your sincerity. While I will admit to a small amount of anxiety, I certainly do not feel anger or anguish.
I am simply the devil’s advocate on this board – that is my role. Many posters get a little carried away with the predictions, and I feel compelled to challenge them.
For example, my wife and I purchased in August of 2006. I actually saw the exact same floorplan sell for $15K more than we paid in July of this year. How would you interpret that data point? You may say…well, that is one data point… Which is exactly one of the points I have brought up. Many of these properties that are featured are singular data points and may not be totally reflective of the market as a whole. But, I digress.
I agree 100% that aggregate declines are in still in front of us, but I don’t agree that we are in store for another Great Depression.
FG
realtwhore alert!
IR…if you deem inappropriate u can delete
http://www.redskins.com/cheerleaders/profile.jsp?id=472
http://www.redskins.com/cheerleaders/profile.jsp?id=467
Priceless!!!
I’m curious, but either way I wouldn’t be too surprised at a shockingly low number this month. BUT, let’s not forget that one point does not make a line.
I haven’t seen many “for sale” signs in TR.
The only home in my neighborhood for sale needs a new roof badly, they want like a MIL for it, it was bought two years ago and it’s been on the market for three months.
Knowing the history of that house, I’d give them $700K because it has a pool and a nice inside lot. But all in all the current owners did not take care of the house.
I know the long term owner that sold six years ago took very good care of the home and added a nice addition to the master bedroom. The next owners were flippers who timed it right and did diddly squat to the house. The current owners are getting hosed.
I drink Trader Joe’s Kona and Kauai’i beans only.
We do grind them fresh with our Starbucks grinder though. It does a fantastic job of uniformly grinding the coffee and you taste the difference… Of course, I don’t put any of that foo foo stuff into my coffee.
Only a Starbucks grinder and purified water comes between me and my Island Bean.
BTW, have you ever tried Peabody Kona beans?
Starbucks coffee at the coffee stores is for the would be aficionados.
Real coffee nazis make their own coffee, drip or french press.
Aloha.
REO pricing shouldn’t be surprising anyone yet. The banks aren’t being pressured to dump the non-performing assets yet and just like most everybody else, they are hoping (literally) the market this year is simply a blip and that everything will be fine again by next Spring.
We’re talking the denial stage still. Most of our friends, neighbors, heck, our communities are the very same people working in these institutions and nobody wants to believe the market has changed so dramatically. Nobody wants to believe their house is worth only what somebody will pay for it.
We’re on a rollercoaster and sitting at the very peak where momentum has virtually stopped (no sales), but the pressure behind will eventually push us over–it is just that nobody wants to be sitting in the first car. However, first car or last the kool-aid drinkers are in for a heck of a ride.
I have listened to Frank Zappa’s Joe’s Garage. At the time (this was before rap) it was the only music full of cursing and references to sex acts. Being the age I was, I thought it was really cool.
Patience,
Companies don’t hire based on training in current languages. They are looking for productive on-the-job experience, and sometimes wait longer to find someone in that spec to hire than if they would have hired a good COBOL guy and got him some good training.
It sucks, as it is hard to find good C, C#, or .Net guys, but no one has the “patience” to train and develop. Companies hire based off immediate need usually, not talent or long-range value. It’s not like a sports franchise that can draft a rookie and pay to develop him for years based on potential. It usually about getting projects done ASAP or getting a product out the door.
I have a few guys in a similar situation as you, one a great COBOL programmer who we had take a bunch of .Net classes. He then interned for super cheap somewhere as a junior developer so he could get paid dev experience in his new language on the resume. After six months of that, we were able to place him into a more senior level position at another company. He was able to take almost a year off with pretty much no salary though, which many can’t do.
I sometimes see companies looking for PowerBuilder people, but that is very seldom. I just searched all the job requirements we have (150+), which span four different states, and COBOL, PB, or FP did come up in any. Java came up in 12, .Net in 6, and C# in 5…
Sorry, that was suppsed to be a “did not come up in any”…
What and when was the previous low?
I haven’t worked awhile (now slumming at home with the kids), but where I worked, was at the time considered a premium (if not the premium) software development company everyone wanted into with compensation and screening to match. There was no lack of applicants. I was surprised that after finally managing to get hired there, it was not all geniuses roaming the halls as I had expected (there were some, but not everyone as I had previously thought).
My remarks are towards what the hiring managers (ie. your future boss or bosses boss) are looking for. Unfortunately, if you don’t know them directly, you have to go though the HR department who typically have no idea how to code, so they screen with dumb questions like “how many years experience with language X do you have”, so it’s kind of hard. Network – try to find someone already inside who will pull you an HR bypass (or find a good recruiter who has those relationships already) to get your resume to the hiring managers desk.
Also, go get a copy of hot language X or Y and write some code. Code sample goes a long way when you finally get to talk to the hiring manager. If you can write something you can run on a webpage, better still, go put it on your homepage and link it in your resume.
Good luck! Persitance pays off – took me 5 years to get hired at my dream job, but you can do it! Just keep knocking on doors.
A realtor, a dancer and a cheerleader…
I imagine she is a good closer…
I don’t know. It was a statistic our CEO heard through the grapevine. When you think about the population and the number of homes for sale in the 3 county area, 116 is a very low number for new home sales. Very low…
I have seen similar calculators which show the impact of depreciation. It paints a pretty grim picture. Of course, it assumes you sell at the bottom which may not be the case. I think it is a reaction to all the BS realtor calculators that always show it is better to buy.
The gross rent multiplier was discussed here:
https://www.irvinehousingblog.com/2007/03/03/how-inflated-are-house-prices/
And yes, we may very well overshoot fundamentals to the downside.
Right, so we agree.
This means that there are qualified people out there. I find it disingenuous to say that there’s a shortage of talent when there really isn’t. Making outsiders think that we need all those H1-B’s. It’s just that there are only short-sighted employers hiring. (By the way, hear about MicroSoft promoting cricket in order to attract Indian employees? How ’bout spending that money on some talented Americans with potential?)
I don’t think I intimated that companies hire based on training. (I have several classes in C#, .NET, and PM under my belt.) I agree they hire based on experience in a particular language. So if you’re talented but don’t happen to have the right keyword on your resume for the automated search, sorry, you’re SOL.
And as for developing someone for years, a decent programmer will only take a couple of months to become proficient in a new language. As shown by your COBOL programmer who interned for only 6 months before being able to find a more senior position.
My dilemma is very like your COBOL programmer with the exception that I have a cushy, well-paid position where I can work from home. So I’m loath to leave just to get experience in a more desirable language. I figure I can wait ’til they kick me out the door with a nice severance. Which at this point doesn’t seem likely. I’ve been waiting for us to upgrade our technology for the past 4 years and it looks like, thanks to MicroSoft murdering V FoxPro, I may finally get some marketable experience in the next 6 months. At least I hope so, I’m getting a little old for the disco cage.
But I do appreciate your taking time to research this and respond. Working from home (my department is actually in NoCal) I get a little lonely for tech talk.
(BTW, my comments directly above were for ipoplaya. I just took too long to write them.)
Good God! 5 YEARS, Anonymous? I’ll be a fat, bloated Homer Simpson-like corpse by then.
Actually, I have a stable job. And due to nepotism I have a second job on the side where I’m learning more current stuff.
I just DESPISE all the corporations bemoaning the lack of talent when they just aren’t willing to pay for it.
Size of New Homes Starts Shrinking As Builders Battle Housing Slump
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118955679788724507.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
Glad to see people out there use M-Audio gear… I did some of the electrical design on the Transit (and multiple other M-Audio products). Many of the guys around here are huge Zappa fans – we even had a viewing of the Baby Snakes here at the office last year.
Keep up the good RE discussions guys – I really enjoy reading them!
“…with all the high tech companies importing H-1B’s…”
I don’t have a problem with US companies hiring foreigners to undercut the pay of the local citizens.
However, I think we should be allowed to have foreign lawyers represent us in court (lower the cost of litigation) and be allowed to elect foreign politicians (to compete with the ones that legistlate allowances for all the foreign born workers).
Very funny, Major. But I think you’re a little behind the times. CA’s governor case in point.
BTW, did you know that the largest users of H1-B’s are foreign companies such as Tata? They just love beating us at our own game.
That’s classic – perfectly indicitive of the past few years’ real estate market.
I won’t ask how you found this web page lendingmaestro…
Irvine is a planned community. That’s why it never ceases to amaze me when I see these cramped little updates of Sleeping Beauty’s Castle on the outskirts of Disneyland: they planned that?
what if you could only deduct, say, the first 10k of mortgage interest?
get Illy E.S.E. Pods about .65 each compared to a 1.75 at starbucks. I Illy beans are better but now I have Lavaza box of 150 pods at .40 each. very good no grinding going on on know thats even cheaper but what a mess.
I believe the governer is a naturalized citizen, but I was somewhat joking concerning the foreign politicians.
However, we should be able to tap into another country’s brain power in our courts of law. I’m pretty certain that only American citizens can practice law in our court system. So, I say let’s let other foreigner’s practice law here too (or even remotely) – just like the engineers. I believe the medical field is going in this direction, as I’ve read/heard about radiology tasks being outsourced to foreigners.
Time to undercut the lawyers.
“Generous relocation package”
Have 20+ years experience doing firmware – Been working at current job for 2 years – but was out of work 6 months before being hired. When I was looking, over half of the people who interviewed me were not born here. I also at one time worked for a start-up that I was the only non Indian engineer.
Its true, any good programmer will pick up another language in a couple months.
I juggle three jobs including being a realtor, a part owner and dance instructor at me and my sister’s competitive dance studio Woodbridge Academy of Dance, and cheerleading and staying involved in the local Professional Dance Company The Capitol Movement Project.
Didn’t she mean that she jiggles three jobs? Besides, with this real estate market, wouldn’t that be two and a half jobs?
By the way, tonye, up here in Seattle we consider Starbucks strictly for amatuers. The afficianados, myself among them, roast their own. It’s surprisingly easy: a hand-cranked popcorn popper works best.
My faves:
– Ethiopian, roasted light
– Blend of equal parts Central American (light roast), Sumatran (medium roast), Columbian (French roast).
Overrated and overpriced:
– Home ownership
– Hawaiian Kona beans
Sometimes I drip it. Sometimes I steam it in the espresso maker and then add hot water. Sometimes I use a Chemex pot. Sometimes I use a French press. It all depends on my mood.
How to roast in a hand-cranked popcorn popper:
– Medium-high heat on the burner
– Use the crank to insure an even roast
– Use a range hood, because roasting coffee smells like burning popcorn
– Remember the Rice Krispies jingle, snap crackle pop? Coffee beans go through two “cracks.” The first crack sounds like the “snap” and the “pop.” Just like popping popcorn. You let it go all the way to the end of the first crack no matter what. The degree of darkness depends on how far into the second crack you go. The second crack sounds like the “crackle.”
– Light roast = the very beginning of the second crack.
– Medium roast = about 25 seconds into the second crack
– French roast = about 45 seconds into the second crack
You know the heat’s too high if:
– There’s no time interval between the first crack and the second crack. Ideally there should be a pause of 15 or 20 seconds between the two cracks.
– Your coffee catches on fire and burns your house down. If you’re upside down on the loan, consider it a gift!
When you’re done roasting:
– Pour the coffee into a metal strainer or collander and toss it to dissipate the heat. I usually walk outside while I do this, to better dissipate the smell, too. (Which, by the way, I find pleasant in small doses.)
– Once it’s cooled down (not smoking or crackling), pour it into a container.
– Leave the container lid partly open for five or six hours to let gases escape.
– Light roasts can be drunk right away. Dark roasts need to sit for a day and a half or two days. If you drink a dark roast too soon, it won’t be awful or dangerous, it’ll just taste thin and metallic.
– Someone told me that I should let the Ethiopian light roast sit for a couple weeks before drinking it, but I lack the patience!
Can I send these links to “House Hunters” with a suggestion that they need a DC episode, pronto — and if they care at all about ratings, they should definitely feature this Real Estate Professional and her clients. Watching the husband try to play it straight while he asks”is there hardwood under that carpet?” would be priceless entertainment!
Mortgage Brokers say 57% of clients couldn’t refi in AUG.
http://thegreatloanblog.blogspot.com
Keep up the great work irvinehousingblog. One of my favorite reads.
Is this where we all get awkwardly silent?
I’m wondering if Irvine Renter’s bubble analysis should not be required reading before posting. Some of these posts suggest this bubble is still deep in the denial stage. I can only imagine what the changing real estate landscape must look like to people who have only been watching for the last four or five years (or less).
I do not want to bring fear to people, however, from my own experience lurking on this site I can tell you this:
Back when IR and others talked about how these exotic loans were going to go away and the only way you were going to buy a house was going to be with a significant down payment, I found their remarks outlandish, ridiculous, a little bit of an over-reaction. I mean after all, these companies are in the business of making loans, and even if the buyers get messed up, how does that affect the brokers who made the loan in the first place? They’re free and clear by that point. Why shouldn’t things continue as they have always been I wondered.
I wish I could tell you when I read those comments, I know this though, they were at least 3 months before the turmoil. But they were right, and look where we’re at now. Clearly, I had a misconception about how things worked because subprime is simply gone. Those exotic loans. Gone. It’s hard to be politely quiet for the sake of someone’s dignity when we are heading into completely unchartered territory.
Prices must be sustained by something. They don’t simply float up into the heavens. Just as the collective force of irrational mania drove prices above reasonable prices, the force of irrational fear is going to drive them below reasonable prices. How is that possible? Go read the bubble analysis article and learn. I’m not kidding. As unpleasant as it sounds, you owe it to yourself to consider where we are at right now in the bubble curve.
As for you Irvine Renter, from your musical selections I feel like we must have gone to High School together in the early 80’s. Whether that is true or not, I have enjoyed your combination of music and housing analysis. I thank you for sharing with us your insight (especially in the face of all the bulls that used to come in here). I have learned much from this site and am thankful to have come across it.
That said, I marvel at some of the language used on this site. Perhaps I’m just a prude (can a guy be a prude?). I’m not fond of the use of OMG, WTF, and FB. I don’t think abbreviating bad words really makes them okay to use. I’m certainly not suggesting you came up with these terms, and I have to admit they have a high-frequency on the internet (though rarely does one find them on news sources and other professional writing). And to be fair, we’re all adults. At the same time, the rest of yoyr writing is so balanced that these terms seem a little out of place. I’m occasionally shocked to see one pop up in the course of a sentence.
I guess the point I’m trying to make is that your writing comes across as intelligent and well-worded, so I’m left wondering why you would ever use these terms. Yes, I’ve seen the asking prices. Yes, I know the plight of unlucky borrowers. Couldn’t we call them UBs here? I guess that’s just not a cool enough term.
I’m also left wondering at what point the Jim Jones saga became a source of amusement instead of a stern warning. Again I realize “drinking the kool-aid” has been tossed about for a number of years. I don’t blame you personally for using the expression, but I do question the decision to do so. Don’t get me wrong, I think you have an excellent sense of humor. It may just be me.
Don’t get it,
The rule of Californian real estate development is to name a subdivision after what was destroyed to build it. Hence Quail Hill, Oak Creek, Rolling Hills Estates, etc. etc.
Carl
Tonye,
Do you live in the Broadmoor? It was harder than HELL to sell my Broadmoor home last year. Everyone hated the floorplan and the damn atrium. I wish I had one of those rebuilt houses, they are quite beautiful.
I had to leave for a new job, and was owning two houses for a while. It took a brutal price cut to move the house. And this was after I initially priced it BELOW what the Realtor suggested.
What is funny about TR is so many of these houses are sitting around but a dramatic 10% price drop would move the house and the owner would still net an obscene profit.
Carl
WaitingToBuyByAndBy,
Thank you for your post. I appreciate your kind words. I will admit to feeling a sense of satisfaction to seeing my vision of events come to pass; while at the same time, I feel a sense of sadness for the ramifications of it all.
I have been questioned on the use of colorful language before, and I have given it considerable thought. The edginess of this language reflects the emotional intensity of the issue.
I don’t know if you have ever done any “inner work,” but I can tell you it is not a place for political correctness. By using these expressions (hopefully in an inoffensive way through abbreviations,) it taps in to the deeper emotional issues surrounding the housing bubble. Without this emotional context, the whole discussion becomes academic and banal.
You will not find me using these expressions in a gratuitous manner (well, maybe sometimes) but rather to jar people into examining their own feelings about these issues. It is easy for people to stay in their heads and ignore their real beliefs and feelings that reside in their emotions. I want to have a discussion that fully engages the individual, not one that merely bats around intellectual concepts.
Yes I do.
We kept the atrium and built around. We like it because we put in a two barrel water fountain and a table with chairs. We eat out there quite often in the summer and it’s the designated table top korean BBQ spot.
Plus it’s a great place to smoke cigars.
Next year I’m going to put a 40 inch flat LCD display there too… I’m just waiting for Costco to sell a Bravia for 1200 bucks or so.
I suppose the difficulty on selling would be on how it’s presented and which floorplan you have. Most of the floorplans have the master bedroom on the atrium. We put a second story (with a heavily reinforced 600 sq foot second story deck where we have an 8 foot inflatable pool) and move the master bedroom up there. So that helped with our privacy.
We also changed the layout internally so it flows better.
And yes, most of us have owned this homes for ever. So the most neighbors don’t seem in much of a rush to sell.
We rebuilt ours from the studs, removed the aliminum wiring, all new plumbing, kitchen, baths, etc… and the location is very near the schools… And there’s a move a foot nowadays for many folks to expand their homes. The Broadmoor is the ONLY place in TR where you can buy a single story and add second on top. Most of Irvine is already two stories, or like the TR Terrace, you are limited on height because of view lots behind you.
HOw big was your house? A plan 1. 2, 3?
Was it upgraded? The non upgraded homes are now 40 years old and plagued by slab leaks, non AC’s, with insufficient amperage and aluminum wiring here and there.
In most of Irvine, you have lots of long term homeowners. Just so long as they didn’t HELOC or refinance with huge cash outs, they are sitting on tremendous equity.
This blog makes a lot of noise about the NEW developments where prices are indeed the most volatile because most everyone bought at the peak, with weird mortgages and now are seeing the need to refinance or sell.
But those new developments are still a small portion of Irvine.
Also, I don’t think the “long term” owners with equity will drive prices down. I think those owners will simply not play the market unless they see the opportunity to snag a “move up” chateau up the hill for an obnoxious price.
And, remember too that long term owners pay very little RE tax because of Prop 13. So I got the feeling that most long term owners will leave their houses only when they die.
And then the house will stay within their estate and family… because the estate inherits the tax benefits.
I think this is how Irvine is slowly becoming “old” money… by virtue of inheritance of long held homes with gobs of equity.
Of course, this won’t happen in the newfangled villages for a looooong time, and will take 20 years to start in Woodbridge, but in TR it has already started.
Tonye,
My house in the Broadmoor was upgraded somewhat. Granite countertops, remodeled bathrooms, cherry floors, recessed lighting, etc. But the Master was in the front of the house with sliding doors to the atrium and people didn’t care for that. I put central AC into the house when I moved in (I can’t believe it didn’t have it for 30 years) but it just didn’t want to sell. Most of my competition to sell has since been pulled from the market. There is very little turnover in TR right now. Our house was a somewhat expanded (back two bedroom and den pushed out 10 feet) plan 1. it was 2010 sq ft. We got $440/sq-ft for it. What a coup… I think the buyers are probably going to have to wait a long time to make a profit.
I agree TR is an awesome neighborhood. I hope I can afford to move back someday. It was the best place to walk my dogs I’ve ever seen. If my old house were upgraded to two stories it would have a peek-a-boo ocean view… I used to go out on the roof with my wife and look at Newport.
One thing I’m not thrilled about is the curb appeal of the original homes. Hello giant garage with no set back. The Broadmoor is definitely following the lead of Harbor View in Newport, but this housing debacle will probably delay the conversion a few more years.
One thing this whole episode made me think of is why are sellers still so greedy? I mean I dropped my house $100k and STILL got a ludicrous profit. Of course I would have preferred to get more money (who wouldn’t), but what is the deal with Realtor’s saying lowball offers are insulting when you are offering to give the seller several hundred large in profit for sitting on their asses? My next door neighbors were a retired Irvine police officer who bought the house new and a teacher who bought in the late 70s. They aren’t going anywhere. There were two other analog designers on my street that bought recently but I would imagine they have the resources to ride it out if things go south.
Carl
Let me see if I interpret this correctly Waiting, you believe that intelligent people would not use profanity (abbreviations thereof) or exclamations such as “Oh My God”?! I’m sorry my friend, but you must have led a very sheltered existence…
I too was in high school in the 80’s, and had to worry about Crips and Bloods beating up on me or my friends because the color of clothes we selected. We didn’t say to them, “Excuse me Mr. Hoodlum, please refrain from directing your socio-economic angst against me.” You can bet I was saying “Get the F away from me!” as I was running for my life.
Somehow I managed to still go to college, get a couple degrees, work in management for a number of years in a Fortune 100, and amazingly, be entrusted completely with the financial and legal health of a company with a 100+ employees. Along the way, in classrooms, boardrooms, and yes all over the internet, I have encountered what I could consider as many intelligent and thoughtful people that used expletives on occassion to convey their ideas, thoughts, or emotions.
I think your view is quite myopic, although I could just be a dumb MF that don’t know $hit…
Still a datapoint without (1) confirmation (2) related data for comparison is meaningless. Though it does sound like a very low number.
I would expect the number to be low given the complete meltdown in the mortgage market. The market is holding its breath waiting for the Fed to act, and the LIBOR curve to normalize in relation to Treasuries. Both of these things will happen. When they do we will see a marginal improvement in fundamentals, and a temporary improvement in confidence.
The next move will be a dead cat bounce.
You’re right, Major. I was kind of joking, too. But we are already outsourcing some legal work:
http://money.cnn.com/2004/10/14/news/economy/lawyer_outsourcing/index.htm
not to mention financial analysis and other work done by highly educated people:
http://www.news.cornell.edu/stories/July07/ILRKuruvilla.html
Just do a search on which jobs are outsourced to India and you will be surprised. Wasn’t there a stink recently over some LA area newspaper outsourcing local government coverage to journalists overseas?
Anyway, all this will hit a wall eventually. Even though India has a billion people only a small fraction of them are educated enough to do what we need them to do. Already in tech there’s high turnover and increasing wages over there as companies steal employees from one another. With my department’s development partner in India I think we’ve had 50% turnover in recent years.
You’re right, Major. I was kind of kidding, too.
But we already are outsourcing some legal work: http://money.cnn.com/2004/10/14/news/economy/lawyer_outsourcing/index.htm
Not to mention loads of other high tech jobs. Just do a search for which jobs are being outsourced to India – you’ll be surprised. Wasn’t there a stink recently about an LA area newspaper outsourcing coverage of local government/city council meetings to journalists in India?
Sorry bud… My sister works at Doctor Evil’s HQ a few blocks South of Safeco Field (yep… we got a Rally Monkey down here…. )
We both like Kona Roasts. Medium roast, high caffeine (dark roastshave less caffeine) and no hint of bitterness.
She does get all kinds of crazy stuff from work to try out ( they get a free pound a week) and Christmas time I get all kinds of fun stuff to try.
I do like the Xmas blends.
Then, down the street, my neighbor’s husband works for Dr. Evil’s legal empire and he also gets coffee…
As I said, Xmas time we’re buried in a sea of Coffee and Evil Paraphernalia.
The problem with those roasts is that they are all blends. The trick is to get the Estate Grown Coffee from small farms. You can get Kona over the Internet.
Our ( wife and I ) plan is to buy a coffee state in Kailua Kona (from the 2500 to 4000 level) and grow peabodies in our Heavenly Highlands Caffeine Estates for the rest of our lifes.
No more shoes… just slippahs…. and watch out fo’ the spiders.
An open air toilet like Sir Richard Branson’s. Hang loose bruddah! Fo’ real.
BTW. Xmas in Kailua-Kona is highs of 80, lows of 72. Xmas in Seattle… don’t ask.. even Irvine gets cold at night in December. Brrrr..
Aloha.
Was that a three bedroom, Plan 1?
Ours was a four bedroom Plan 2 with two bedrooms, bathrooms and dining room on the atrium.
By now, of course, it’s something quite different and our old master bedroom is my office/second guest room.
Yes, if you got 440 bucks per square foot on a slightly expanded and renovated home you got a killing. I’ve always thought that 400 bucks per square foot was a lot for my chateau. But then, I tend to be conservative and never understood the bubble and 500 bucks was inconceivable.
A lot of people who have almost stock homes think (want) to get as much per square foot as those of us who have rebuilt from the studs… Oh well….
Other than that, you’d be surprised as how much interest there is on second floors. The builders are suddenly looking for work. I spoke with a neighbor that got quoted 800 bucks per square foot on his second floor addition. I told him to wait a year… but from the sound of it the builders are dropping their prices fast.
And many homeowners sitting on big equity positions and low mortgages don’t seem to have problems coming up with $200K or more to do the construction.
Oh well.. someone’s gotta keep Pacific Sales humming. And Home Depot should have sales on lumber and drywall soon enough.
I’ve had that same idea, then I realized, I can’t go through life that wired from testing my own coffee all day to make sure the roast is right. I then started day dreaming of retiring to a little vineyard and can to the opposite but same conclusion.
This reminds me of that coffee house in Nawlins that roasted their own. It was just up the street from the Bignet & Coffee place that shares the building with the Oyster place near Jackson square. Cripes, I can’t remember the name of a single place, but can still remember the coffee from both places. Sadly the bignets too. I wonder if they’re still there?
Cafe du Monde?? – great coffee and beignets
That’s the one. The other was up the street that ran along the open air market there. Can’t remember it’s name.
Forget the coffee… there used to be a real good brewery down there.
Their golden ale and IPA pints were great before going back to the Bremerton Ferry.
Sadly, I don’t remember seeing last Christmas (come to think about it, I don’t remember seeing it for a few years now).
A lot of firmware worked got outsourced to China when we started importing boards from them. Good luck trying to write thing on them as the “local factory rep” is usually some chinese guy living in Yorba Linda and working out of his house.
The moment you ask him about the ioLib interface or the POST code he’ll babble like Fu Man Chu and give you some phone number in China. If you dial that number, you’re guaranteed a visit from local security or Homeland security ( the former if you work aerospace, the latter if you do commercial).
Then layer 4 and above is done in China ” Hello, my name is… Ryan… may I help you?”…. Yep… they got these shells companies in the US where four of five indian americans manage to ship requirements to Bangalore.
Mind you, I’m sort of jealous of some of these guys because they make gobs of money and live in TR.
Then you get the COBOL, .net, C#… folks… let’s get serious. That work NEVER paid well. You could not be a programmer in those fields and afford a house in Irvine.
Forget it.
Microsoft and Web weenies… forget it…. It doesn’t pay much.
As far as experience is concerned… go to UCI’s Extension Program and read books. With a PC you can learn tons too. When I started in this field, you literally needed a PDP or VAX to get experience.
Powerpoint programming though? Oh Dear…
Bottom line, anyone can learn a new language reasonably well in two months.
But it takes years to learn the trade. If you have spent years in COBOL, don’t expect to become a master at web design or in embedded/BSP/kernel code.
It’s not the language, it’s the subfield of software that matters.
Gotta go…. time to buy a house…. 😉
Correct me if I am wrong, but it seems to me that as vacant properties are added to the rental market, they create more supply and competition in rental market in addition to the supply they create in the sales market. Is it possible these additions will affect both the sales and the rental markets, thus decreasing prices in both?
The term “Floplord” is beautiful.
There seems to be a common sentiment that if the owner can just manage to hold on for two more years, the market will have recovered.
I wonder how many of these owners are renting out and waiting for the two years? Awgee, I think you are going to see downward pressure on rents, too. It is the old supply/demand thing and it is going to stretch people to the breaking point. This all will not end well.
This property for $514 sq/ft is just crazy. A condo. not even 1.2k sq/ft.
Insanity!
Well, it’s not as small as this place in Toronto:
http://www.t-six.com/showthread.php?p=161538
Now that’s “infill housing”.
I agree.
I bought a Tecnovrom Mocha Master and get bitter everytime I am out of town and have to pay for a cup of coffee that isn’t as good and costs 80x as much as what you can make at home.
If the $300 machine is too spendy and you REALLY want a good cup of coffee buy a french press and boil your own water. The MochaMaster is the close second, but second none the less.
Irvine Renter (and other principals of this blog) — Wow, over a hundred comments? How about an open thread so those of us without a life can nitpick each others’ comments?
And with these … tens of fans, you must be raking in the advertising pennies. Nickels, even! If you are at a loss at how to invest those piles of loose change, I’m sure one of your regular commenters will be happy to suggest a piece of property or something… Up, up, up! Excelsior!
That is a good suggestion. Let’s try it.
I wish we were making tons of money off the blog. Blog revenues are not very high, plus we don’t burden the site with too much advertising, so we are not getting rich — unfortunately.
We grind our beans in a Starbucks grinder and then make the coffee with water off our water filter set up. We use full Kona or Kauai beans and the medium body brew is wonderful. No bitterness at all.
Per cup it’s expensive but I’d rather drink less coffee anyways. So we just make half a mug and love it.
Expresso wise we buy the Starbucks expresso shots in those paper disks. Since we use it for Capuccino or Cafe Au Lait we are not fascist about our expresso coffee.
Yep… if you want to go from Quail Hill to Laguna in a summer evening, specially in a weekend, you better pack a half gallon thermos of late for your drive. What a bogus RE line.
A half gallon of coffee on the Laguna Canyon road drive? That will seem like an eternity, spent looking for public bathrooms.
That’s why we never go to Laguna in the summer time, only in the winter. The locals all know that the Laguna might as well be 200 miles away from Newport or the 405 in the summer time.
The RE agent should know, but then they are not wont to be quite honest with their descriptions.
Maybe they figure that if you can afford to pay their price you could afford to rent a helicopter and fly from Quail Hill to Laguna… then it’s indeed a short latte to the ocean.
Bogus….
Not only did Brad Delp die last year but he killed himself. He was a friend of mine. it’s terrible. I still am not over the horror of his death.