A million dollar dream of 2005 turned into a trap for many buyers in 2009 with the properties in that area selling for a discount of around $200,000. With the chatter of the possible bottom in the ‘Summer of 2012’, the Camelia tract of Northwood II saw a lot of activity despite of good location, and excellent schools. Now that ‘Summer of 2012’ is almost here, I wanted to go back in history and see if those that bought in the frenzy of 2009 made a good decision. So, instead of comparing two identical properties for sale in the same village, I will compare a property on the market now with a property that sold in 2009.
The property I have picked is 52 Secret Garden in Northwood. Karen covered the open house in her blog post last week. Also, a discussion on Talk Irvine validates interest in the property.
Here is the sales history of six years for identical properties in the same tract. The selling price seems to be stable around $300/SF. The peak was in 2006, at $381/SF. The bottom so far was at $275 in 2009.
|
Year Sold
|
Address
|
Sale Price
|
Price/ SF
|
|
2006
|
25 Grape Arbor
|
$1,180,000
|
$381 – Highest
|
|
2008
|
26 Teak Bridge 26 Grape Arbor 42 Secret Garden 61 Secret Garden
|
$1,075,000 $939,000 $942,000 $950,000
|
$350 $306 $301 $301
|
|
2009
|
59 Fire Thorn 71 Secret Garden 25 Grape Arbor 62 East Bamboo 64 Secret Garden 27 Secret Garden
|
$940,000 $843,000 $855,000 $915,000 $865,000 $949,000
|
$306 $275 $276 – Lowest $291 $279 $309
|
|
2010
|
27 Torrey Pine 60 Corn Flower
|
$900,000 $939,000
|
$290 $300
|
|
2011
|
56 Fire Thorn 61 Crab Apple
|
$921,500 $905,000
|
$297 $292
|
|
2012
|
32 Torrey Pine 30 Secret Garden 61 Secret Garden
|
$957,000 $965,000 $979,000
|
$309 $301 $306
|
For comparison I chose 71 Secret Garden sold in 2009. It defines the bottom for the Camelia tract so far at $275/SF.
|
Address
|
|
|
|
Listing Price
|
$969,000
|
$843,000 (Sold)
|
|
Original purchase price
|
$1,008,000 Sept, 2005 $1,018,000 Nov, 2008
|
$1,130,000 April, 2005
|
|
Price/ SF
|
$313
|
$275
|
|
HOA Dues
|
$142
|
$142
|
|
Monthly Mortgage
|
$3649 (30 YR Fixed, 3.875%)
|
$3724 (30 YR Fixed, 5.25%) Source: CNN money
|
|
Down Payment
|
$193,980
|
$168,600
|
|
Property Tax (1.0595%)
|
$10266
|
$8674
|
|
Mello Roos
|
$3336
|
$3336
|
|
Annual Tax + Mello Roos
|
$13602
|
$12011
|
|
Monthly expenses
|
$4924
|
$4866
|
52 Secret Garden
71 Secret Garden
Similar homes in the area have rented for $4200-$4300. In my opinion, it hasn’t made much difference considering the plunge in mortgage rates.What do you think? Was the worst over in 2009, or is it yet to come? Will the Camelia tract go below $290/SF again?
Discuss below or on the Talk Irvine thread.
As to price, I don’t know. But that is one ugly house – at least from the outside.
If prices are merely stable in the face of declining mortgage rates and declining monthly payments, then it seems demand is softening. I think the market looks gloomier and gloomier.