Market value of a property is subject to what a buyer is willing to pay the seller given the current local, regional and national market conditions. Irvine inventory is reaching a new low. Last April there were 807 properties for sale. Six months ago there were 780. A month ago 534. Today, we have 507 properties for sale in Irvine according to the Irvine Housing Blog chart. (506 according to www.movoto.com, 258 Single Family Residences and 248 Condominiums). Robert Shiller, the co-creator of the Case-Shiller Index has been quoted saying “the market has a chance of rebounding even though the downward momentum in the real estate market has accelerated in the past five years”.

With the low inventory, and a low unemployment rate (6.0% in Irvine), is it time for Irvine home prices to rebound? Will the summer of 2012 become the turning point in the Irvine real estate market?

While we can’t predict what future holds, but here is a look at the inventory and corresponding data in the past five years.

	Inventory	Median Sale price	Sale Price/SF	Sold for loss
July 2007	1279	$714,000	$413/SF	7.62%
Dec 2009	448	$574,000	$344/SF	32.12%
June 2011	891	$548,000	$345/SF	36.42%
February 2012	568, and slid to 507 on April 15.	$495,000	$311/SF	43.52%

If that was the data for the City of Irvine, let’s see what data shows for specific villages of Irvine. The house I profile today was built in 2006, the so called peak of the housing market. The property I compare it with was built in the same village, has the same floor plan, same corner location, same school district and shopping district.

One of them is 59 Midnight Sky, and the other is 28 Rising Sun.

The Village of Woodbury has 26 homes for sale, and the inventory is down 39.7% on a year-on-year basis, and down 12.5% on a month-to-month basis. But the median price/SF is down to $289/SF and the median sold price is down to $678,000.

28 Rising Sun was sold for $986,500 on June 26, 2006.

59 Midnight Sky was sold for $875,000 on August 25, 2006.

59 Midnight Sky was listed on 26 June, 2011 for $839,000.

It was sold for $722,500 on November 25, 2011.

28 Rising Sun was listed at $828,888 on November 11, 2011.

MLS Listing:

28 Rising Sun, Irvine CA 92620

Listing Price	$828,888
Beds/ bath	3 Beds/ 2.5 Bath
Area	1949 SF
Price/ SF	$425/ SF
Levels	2
Year Built	2006
Floor Plan	Builders Tract Name: Portisol Builders Tract Code: WDPT Builders Model Code: 2
Type of Sale	Standard
Elementary School	Woodbury Elementary School
Middle School	Sierra Vista Middle School
High School	Irvine High School
Down payment	$165,778
Monthly mortgage, assuming 20% down payment, and 30 YR Fixed at 4.125%	$3,166
Home Owner’s Dues	$105
Mello-Roos	$4597 Annually $383 Monthly
Property Tax (1.0595%)	$8782 Annually $732 Monthly
Fixed Cost of owning	$4386 Monthly

Floor Plan:

The main door opens into an entry room/ foyer. On the left is the staircase, and the powder room. One the right is the coat closet. The hallway from the entry room leads to the Great Room. An arch visually divides the living space and the dining space. The right wall of the dining space has a work desk, pantry, oven and refrigerator. The back wall has an L-shaped kitchen counter with a central island. Fortunately the dishwasher is on the far end of the counter making it easy to cook/ prep. Some of the newer houses have a kitchen layout where you can use only one appliance at a time. Coming back to the Portisol house, the garage opens into the kitchen. Upstairs, there is a small lobby to host a small home office, or a homework station. The Master bedroom is on the left with ample windows. There are two walk-in closets for the Master suite. One is big, and one is small. Talk about gender discrimination! I am sure the Architect has a simpler reason. The sinks, the tub, the laundry rooms were laid out to meet the specific size requirements first, and whatever space remained between that and the Master bedroom became the closets. YAY for laundry room upstairs! Also, it is housed within the cluster of bathroom and closet walls making it easy to relax in any of the bedrooms when washing a load of jeans. The secondary bedrooms are of a decent size. I like the flow of the floor plan. It is perfect for a family with school age children.

Here is the historical data of the Portisol home price/SF since they were built in 2006.

Year Sold	Highest Price/ SF	Lowest Price/SF
2006	$477	$360
2007	$439	$413
2008	$425	$345
2009	$468	$324
2010	$446	$344
2011	$398	$332

59 Midnight Sky sold at $370/SF.

28 Rising Sun is listed at $425/SF.

Here is more specific data. These are the Portisol Model 2 houses (1949 SF) sold since 2008:

2011: 59 Midnight Sky at $722,500

2010: 80 Loganberry at $870,000

62 Rising Sun at $790,000

2009: 59 Midnight Sky at $710,000

2008: 50 Rising Sun at $799,231

62 Rising Sun at $830,000

74 Loganberry at $770,000

There have been no changes in the list price of 28 Rising Sun after listing. It is an unusual move given the market conditions and the comparable property sale. A quick look at the pictures on the MLS listing does not reveal any upgrades amounting to $106,388- the price difference between the list price and the sold price of the comparable property.

I am hoping the ex-model status and low inventory will account for the premium! Also, as the historical data reveals, buyers have paid $870,000 in 2010 for the same model. End of the day it comes to what a buyer has to offer. As an Irvine home owner, I would love for things to get better and my neighbors to sell their homes for a profit. I hope the sun rises on the better housing market!

Discuss below or on Talk Irvine.