With prices falling during the prime season, market watchers are looking ahead to steeply falling prices this fall and winter.
Irvine Home Address … 10 ROCKWREN Irvine, CA 92604
Resale Home Price …… $999,900
Memories made in the coldest winter
Winter, winter
If spring can take the snow away
Can it melt away all of our mistakes
Memories made in the coldest winter
Kanye West — Coldest Winter
In frontier times if you didn't prepare for winter, you died. The economic cycles has seasons, including a winter. The housing bubble was the endless summer of easy money. The declining market of fall lead to the economic crash and the long cold winter we are enduring now. It seems like the spring thaw will never come, and for most loan owners it won't. The overindebted are not fit to survive the winter, and overly-indebted real estate sellers will endure a very cold fall and winter to come.
Home prices notch third straight monthly gain
A key index of home prices in 20 metropolitan areas rose 1.1% from May to June. Real estate experts say the improvement is seasonal and that prices could fall again as sales slow in the fall and winter.
August 31, 2011– By Alejandro Lazo, Los Angeles Times
With an uptick in June, home prices in major U.S. cities have recorded three consecutive months of gains. But the glimmer of improvement is almost certainly seasonal in nature, real estate experts said, and prices could begin to fall again when the slower sales season begins.
The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 metropolitan areas rose 1.1% from May to June when left unadjusted for seasonal variations. Prices fell 4.5% from June 2010.
Remember last April and May as buyers hurried to obtain the $8,000 tax credit? With prices down 4.5% any benefit obtained was washed away by falling prices in the aftermath.
Prices often increase in the warmer months because of changes in the types of homes selling, particularly in parts of the country that have harsher weather than Southern California. Foreclosures make up a higher proportion of sales during the winter as families take a break from home shopping and cash-rich investors dominate the market. Higher sales volumes in spring and summer also push up prices.
“A seasonal kick accounts for the recent strength in the indexes,” Patrick Newport, a U.S. economist with IHS Global Insight, wrote in a note to clients. “This kick will wear off in the fall, when demand weakens and sellers have to give way on price, and prices will start dropping again.”
Yes, that is exactly what will happen. During the winter buyers are scarce. The properties remaining on the market are sellers who missed the prime selling season. Many will take their properties off the market and wait until next year, but those who don't represent the most motivated sellers. When the market is characterized by a shortage of buyers and a plethora of motivated sellers, lower prices are sure to follow. That's the main reason prices go down in the fall and winter. This year, the circumstances are exaggerated because the GSEs will be selling whether or not discretionary sellers get into the act.
The Case-Shiller index also includes data that is adjusted for seasonal variations, but the experts who publish these numbers have cautioned that the large number of foreclosures on the market have distorted the statistics.
Foreclosures distort nothing. The liquidation of foreclosures are part of the market, and they will be for the next several years. A foreclosure-dominated market is not the old norm, but it is today's reality.
There were some signs of hope.
None of the cities tracked by the index posted new lows. In March, home prices dipped below their recession-era low of April 2009, confirming a much-expected double-dip in home prices, but that was short lived as the selling season pushed prices back above that mark.
This fall and winter the double dip should take out the 2009 lows in any remaining markets. Any signs of hope will be crushed.
Many experts, however, say that the level of job creation needed for steady home price gains is still elusive. For prices to make sustained gains, the market needs a steady supply of buyers and sellers. Holding people back from making purchases, experts say, are factors such as unemployment and the difficulties that people with less-than-stellar credit have getting mortgages.
The buyer pool is seriously depleted because so many have gone through foreclosure or short sale. This is what makes Las Vegas such a great cashflow property market. The disparity between the cost of ownership and the cost of rental is sending a huge buy signal, but since most of the potential buyer pool with jobs has poor credit, they have no choice by to rent. This keeps rental rates high even while the cost of ownership continues to plummet.
In addition, the decline in home equity brought on by the bust has discouraged move-up buyers, a traditional source of housing-market oomph.
Discouraged is the wrong word. It implies move-up buyers still have the equity necessary to move up. They don't. The move-up market is frozen because the ongoing price decline is removing the equity from the household balance sheets of all homeowners. This is more than discouraging, it is debilitating. There will be no move-up market until prices find their natural bottom and prices sustain appreciation for two or three years. Only then will buyers from the bottom have enough equity to cover transaction costs and move into a nicer home — assuming they make more money to afford a larger mortgage.
Although foreclosures have slowed, repossessed properties continue to represent an unusually large proportion of home sales, and those houses tend to drag prices down. The number of foreclosures could increase again if the economy worsens and if banks pick up the pace after working through negotiations with regulators over their repossession practices.
Nineteen of the 20 regions measured by the Case-Shiller index were up in June over May, according to the data released Tuesday. Eight cities remain above their April 2009 bottom, including all of the metro areas in California: San Diego, San Francisco and the Los Angeles region, which also covers Orange County.
Home prices in the California cities are considered relatively healthy, despite the state's high unemployment rate, because they are markets that are close to job centers and near the ocean — where overbuilding was relatively constrained and demand remains healthy.
Wrong! The only reason these markets look healthier is because the foreclosures and resulting REO have not been processed here. Coastal California is the king of shadow inventory. A study by Foreclosure Radar has demonstrated that squatting time increases as loan balance increases. Since coastal California has the largest number of large loans, lenders are simply not foreclosing here in hopes a market rebound will magically produce enough buyers to absorb the inventory waiting in the shadows. It won't work out that way.
The index does not track prices in California's Central Valley or the Inland Empire, where housing is still weak.
“These shifts suggest that we are back to regional housing markets, rather than a national housing market where everything rose and fell together,” David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at Standard & Poor's, said in a statement.
No. These shifts have shown that the uneven foreclosure behavior of lenders is bifurcating the maket by separating the squatters with large loan balances form the recently foreclosed who used to have less expensive properties.
Recent turmoil in the nation's stock markets also has shaken the faith of consumers in the future of the U.S. economy. A separate economic gauge released Tuesday underscored this fear. That measure of consumer sentiment dropped to its lowest level in more than two years.
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index now stands at 44.5, down from 59.2 in July, a drop of nearly 15 points. The last time the index was near this low was in April 2009, just after the financial crisis had sent markets into a free-fall that had ended that March, when it stood at 40.8.
The group's present-situation index, which tracks how people feel about the current state of the economy, fell to 33.3 from 35.7. The big decline came in people's views about the future of the economy, with the expectations index dropping to 51.9 from 74.9 last month.
Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics, said that consumer confidence should improve now that the gyrations of the stock markets have eased.
“The expectations number is always sensitive to stock prices, so it should now stabilize if the market remains close to current levels,” he wrote in a note Tuesday.
Many analysts have tried to tie the lack of housing demand on consumer sentiment factors. I don't believe it. Very few people delay their home purchase decisions based on macro-economic factors. Perhaps many readers of this blog have, but the cautious readers of this blog are a small minority of the general homebuying population. Most people buy for emotional reasons because they are ready to do so. There are not legions of fence sitters waiting to buy at a later date. The fence-sitter meme is a realtor fantasy, not a market reality.
With prices falling below rental parity in many neighborhoods — even here in Orange County — many buyers will take advantage of the low cost of ownership caused by low interest rates and buy distressed property this fall and winter. It probably isn't the bottom, but for those with a longer holding time who can wait out the decline, taking advantage of the cost of ownership lower than comparable rent may be the right decision.
Paying for someone else's dream
During the bubble the easy access to HELOC money prompted many people to renovate their average homes into palaces. Everyone who creates their dream home falls in love with it and assumes everyone else shares their ideas of what makes a perfect home — and these owners expect others to be willing to pay a premium for it.
In the real world, for every dollar spent on a renovation it adds about seventy cents in value. For those who go overboard and customize everything to their tastes, the actual value added drops off significantly. Of course, owners don't accept this, and most people in Irvine who spent money on renovations believe they added two dollars in value for every dollar they spent.
The owners of today's featured property started with a $473,800 first mortgage, and by the time they finished their renovations, they had a $555,000 first mortgage and a $150,000 HELOC. Of the $231,200 in mortgage equity withdrawal, at least some of it was spent on improvements. The owners hope that between the added value and the residual air of the housing bubble they will still make a profit on the deal.
Is this property worth a million dollars?
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This property is available for sale via the MLS.
Please contact Shevy Akason, #01836707
949.769.1599
sales@idealhomebrokers.com
Irvine House Address … 10 ROCKWREN Irvine, CA 92604
Resale House Price …… $999,900
Beds: 4
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 2300
$435/SF
Property Type: Residential, Single Family
Style: Two Level, Traditional
View: Pool
Year Built: 1979
Community: Woodbridge
County: Orange
MLS#: P794914
Source: SoCalMLS
On Redfin: 1 day
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CALIFORNIA DREAM COME TRUE! Better than a New Model! This home is a rare gem!! Located on the corner of two very quiet streets. Totally remodeled in 2006 with nothing left out. This Sunny open floorplan welcomes you with custom features throughout. Travertine floors. High End Remodeled Kitchen with everything you can imagine: Large Island, Professional 6 Burner Gas Stove with 2 ovens & griddle, Wine Cooler, Bar Ice Machine, more Refrigerator Drawers in Island, Miele Espresso Station, Granite Counters with Tile Backsplash, even Dutch Doors to outdoor dining area! Butler Pantry with sink, disposal, 2nd Dishwasher & storage shelves. Open Dining Room with custom pillars. Custom Fireplace with Marble Hearth. Custom Swimming Pool & Large Spa with Pebbletech surface & Waterfalls surrounded by colorful raised flowerbeds. Large lot provides lots of backyard entertainment area with Large BBQ Island with sink & refrigerator. All bathrooms remodeled, New windows. .More, more, more. .Just come & see!
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Proprietary IHB commentary and analysis
CALIFORNIA DREAM COME TRUE! Better than a New Model! This home is a rare gem!! — We now know a great deal about the egos of the owners. They probably believe those statements.
Resale Home Price …… $999,900
House Purchase Price … $592,500
House Purchase Date …. 11/15/2000
Net Gain (Loss) ………. $347,406
Percent Change ………. 58.6%
Annual Appreciation … 4.8%
Cost of Home Ownership
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$999,900 ………. Asking Price
$199,980 ………. 20% Down Conventional
4.26% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate
$799,920 ………. 30-Year Mortgage
$197,330 ………. Income Requirement
$3,940 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment
$867 ………. Property Tax (@1.04%)
$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)
$208 ………. Homeowners Insurance (@ 0.25%)
$0 ………. Private Mortgage Insurance
$83 ………. Homeowners Association Fees
============================================
$5,098 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays
-$927 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)
-$1100 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment (Amortization)
$307 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)
$145 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves
============================================
$3,523 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership
Cash Acquisition Demands
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$9,999 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%
$9,999 ………. Closing Costs @1%
$7,999 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan
$199,980 ………. Down Payment
============================================
$227,977 ………. Total Cash Costs
$53,900 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves
============================================
$281,877 ………. Total Savings Needed
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Thanks for the great post, I look forward to reading more from you in the future.
Payday loan spammer.
I expect that my landlord’s house will be sold at a foreclosure auction in Santa Ana today. The auction has been postponed 12 times, each month since 2010.
He hasn’t paid the mortgage since 2009, but he’s paid to lawyers.
I wonder what a tenant should do after a foreclosure auction. I read that he can stay for 3 months. How can he recover the deposit?
You’re right about the decision to buy being based on circumstances rather than macro economics. My husband and I would LOVE to buy a house, our children aren’t getting any younger and having a family home is important to us. Renting with a family, although smarter financially, is a pain when it comes to having pets, keeping the kids in the same schools, etc. The only thing that has kept us from pulling the trigger on a house is the notion that we fear we’d be immediately underwater at the prices we see here in OC and stuck. I know this isn’t anything that hasn’t been said here a million times. It’s frustrating to feel we’re missing out while waiting for the market to correct.
Yeah, same situation here. So frustrating.
It’s getting close, I think, for us. If the homes we’re looking at come down even another 10%, I think we’re happy with that value.
Whether that’s full corrected, I’m not sure, but it would put us in a home we could be happy with long term (excepting a forced relocation or some such).
Even though it has been said before… there are many who don’t understand the difference children make when considering renting vs. owning.
We’ve been looking to buy in a different neighborhood for the last few years but now that our kids are going to our area school, we either have to stay put or have our kids become “commuter kids”.
In the past I’ve downplayed the importance of continuity when it comes to their schooling but for many it’s a very important factor.
My wife and I have contemplated moving to South County off and on over the last several years, but we don’t want to leave the Irvine school district, so we stay here.
My husband and I keep (half) joking that once the kids are in college we should just pick up and move somewhere more reasonable to live with crappy schools.
Hold the presses! Are you saying that you rented in Irvine? Are you saying that you don’t need to buy a house for your kids to attend Irvine schools?
No, you don’t have to buy a house for your kids to attend the district school. Your rented home is your primary residence, and your kids attend the school in the area of your primary residence. I am renting only because I want my kids to attend the most reputable schools in the SF Bay area, otherwhise I would buy home few blocks down (but different school attendance area).
I get the feeling most (not all) of the people on these boards are older and a bit more settled so kids don’t really become a factor.
My parents were renters and I think the longest I was in a school was 2 years or so in the 80s-early 90s. My kids have been in the same schools since kindergarten and second grade and (6th and 8th now) and the idea of moving them really gets to me. They’ll survive if we move out of the area but it will weigh in heavily in any decisions we make.
I’d prefer to move into our own home rather than another rental but with things going the way they are who knows…
I don’t want to be one of those people who rants all over the board to strangers but… I can’t help but feel cheated. My husband and I are both professional people and we’ve paid our dues and would like to buy and settle. We got approved for a mortgage recently (side note: it’s insane how much banks are willing to lend. More than enough rope to hang ourselves with.) But I still can’t make the numbers work. It just doesn’t make sense to spend 3x more on a house to live in OC. I was sure that in 2011 things would have come down enough but I’m starting to believe that the squatters and banks might be able to drag this on for several more years before we get back to some sort of normal. By which time my family may be grown.
Teri, you are correct that this current generation with growing kids got the short end of the stick. Throw in the biggest housing bubble in history and the largest recession in modern times and you have some serious challenges.
While you might feel cheated by the events that transpired, there are plenty of people who are in much worse shape (trust me). My best friend is about to lose his house that he bought back during the bubble. He and his wife both took big cuts in pay and their house is about 150K underwater. All this and two young kids. I have to say this generation got SCREWED! These are professionals who just wanted to enjoy the dream of owning a house and raising a family…their future is far from certain.
Teri,
Welcome to the club.
Doing the math, it doesn’t make sense to buy, unless you calculate another Ponzi/inflation schemes occurring. I’ve been renting and saving for many years. Was living in a “almost a million dollar McMansion” new house for $2600/month for 4 years (2004-2008). The house did go up in price, but the payments would of been a killer. I should have bought, but that was only in that city. Other neighboring cities, which co-workers purchased, were killed (dropped 35% $1.2million to under $800k and still dropping). I did run into some honest realtors that said those towns were unsuitable for my kids’ education. I just don’t see buying a small shack for over $800k and having high HOA to boot.
Schools are a main factor for me, so that’s why I’m renting and not throwing my money away by buying an overpriced Ponzi house.
Yes, I’m sure your generation has had it rough as well. Don’t forget the generation limbo too though. The kids who are graduating today that can’t find a job and are having to move back in with parents. They probably won’t even have enough for a down payment even after the crash does correct the prices. Hopefully prices will stay sane for awhile though.
if you blame banks or squatters for lost time, you do not get it.
you should have really blamed the enablers, that’s our elected official, that’s right President, congressmen and senators.
They’ve enabled lenders(suspended mark to market) to delay foreclosures and slowed down house prices reaching the bottom by giving help and hope to homeowners while nothing to renters.
so it is your Government you and your kids should really thank for that.
We rented for six years in the same neighborhood where we recently bought. Renting made absolutely no difference in the schools or school district. What a load of hooey!
Granted, there are many people who find it easy to rent for extended periods of time, but there are certain areas where it’s not that simple, at least in Irvine.
We rented for about a year but it was very expensive and comparable properties were the same. Like Teri, it’s tough to find quality SFR rentals that allow pets, especially in the range we were looking. At the monthly we were paying, it didn’t make sense to continue renting because it wasn’t a significant savings over buying. We could rent a smaller place, but in this neighborhood, 3/2 condos were going for $3200… bleh. And while it was our preferred school (which was closed to enrollment from other neighborhoods), we just couldn’t find a rental (or purchase) that was financially reasonable for us. In addition, the rental we were in was not only expensive, but the owner stopped paying his property tax so that’s another issue we had to worry about (not to mention after we moved out we had problems with getting our deposit back).
Renting does work for many people (IR himself has been a longtime renter) but for many others, it’s difficult (esp in Irvine with some areas still inflated in both home prices and rental rates and a stricter boundary enforcement of schools).
Right now I could buy the house 2 doors down from my rental at full asking price and pay $500 less a month than my rent. Same floor plan and they have a slightly larger yard. In a lot of decent areas rents are really expensive IF you can find a house to rent in the first place. It’s annoying to me that people seem to think renting is always so much cheaper. I’m no snob and I’ve yet to find house for less than I am paying now that’s comparable.
Could I rent cheaper? If I move to a crappier neighborhood (I’m in an OK but not fancy neighborhood) Honestly I wouldn’t want to buy here. I am thinking about moving up to a bigger house with a larger yard in a nicer neighborhood for near what I am paying now.
My landlord may be foreclosing on the home they currently live in so renewing my lease is very much up in the air. (they may move back in to my place) Everything is coming to the point where we have to start making some decisions.
Reason I still haven’t bought? I think prices may come down a bit more and in this economy I am worried about not being able to sell if something happened. In the nicer neighborhoods the monthly nut on a house is starting to become on par with renting with interest rates as low as they are.
It’s not as black and white as some of you seem to say.
I never said that renting was always cheaper than owning. I said that the school issue is a BS! You can rent a home anyplace you can buy a home. You can rent a home in any school district that you can buy a home. IHO’s soliloquy is a long winded strawman argument which does not tell the truth, which is that you can rent a home anyplace you can buy a home, so the school issue is a bunch of hooey!
I notice that you constantly feel the need to defend/rationalize your purchase of your home.
We just bought a home; closed today. Ya know why? Cuz we wanted to own a home. Will home prices continue to decrease? Is renting still cheaper than owning, generally speaking? Yes to both. Would renting still be cheaper than buying for us. YEAH! WAY! Do I care? Only a little bit.
Congrats awgee!
Awgee, who said you couldn’t rent in the area your kids were going to school? The only thing that was said is that it’s a drag to try and find a rental in the same area as you’ve been living. Either way this is a subject that evidently gets your blood going.
We had less difficulty finding a rental than we did a purchase in the neighborhood we were looking in.
Thanks Zov.
I bought late last year very well knowing the risks. Similar houses are now selling for about 5% less and probably will sell for even less coming winter. In my opinion there is no question that anybody who buys know will be underwater for a while.
That said, my family has really enjoyed the house so far. My young son really enjoys the space and the yard. My wife and I have been able to accommodate large numbers of guests during various occasions with ease now. We are free to do what we want with home improvements etc.
So, my feeling is it makes sense to buy if
1)You do not stretch yourself crazy and buy around rental parity
2)You are certain that you would not mind trading the benefits that ownership brings with potential loss of downpayment.
If you cannot stomach a loss of downpayment (hopefully temporarily) then do not buy.
We might head down that road if we can’t renew our lease. I’m glad your family is enjoying your home. That’s what is should all be about. 🙂
I agree, owning a home is really about customizing it to your tastes and lifestyle and then enjoying it with your family.
I think where a lot of people got into trouble was
1) Stretching themselves too much and/or ignoring rental parity.
2) Putting all their savings into down payment
I really believe you must make reasonably conservative financial decisions so that it does not affect your enjoyment of your home.
After all what is the point in buying a nice house if all you can think about is next month’s mortgage or the vanishing downpayment.
Same old rationalizations for overpaying for a house.
Mental note: skip the annual BBQ with so-called friends and save 65% on housing by renting.
As long as you can get something around or under rental parity it is at least worth considering purchasing.
I am not advocating buying overpriced houses which Irvine and San Jose probably have in plenty
My sister locked in a 4 year lease.
I’ve been living in the same place for 3 years. Prior place was for 4 years.
My renters have been renting from me for 6+ years. Just because you rent, doesn’t mean you need to keep moving. But it does allow you to move it needed.
I hear loud and clear the comments regarding kids and school. Today was the first day for my kids (2nd grade & Kgarten) in Irvine Unified. Due to the economy and work changes we were in Sherman Oaks last year. Last year my wife called me crying about the situation she encountered (even after some decent research) there when dropping our oldest for her first day of 1st grade. Today she called me happy – the complete opposite.
Through some foresight and good luck we sold our OC home in 2005. We rented in Irvine the following year while the kids were infants and toddlers. During that time I liked Irvine, found it convenient, etc. but never thought I would want to own here. We’ve since been out of state and back. Unfortunately, I am now more dependent on my employer than they are on me. The outlook for jobs in my industry is OK but the need to relocate always looms in order to get an equivilent or better position. The outlook for CA, in general, is not too good.
So while I would like to buy, the factors mentioned in previous posts as well as the job situation keep me renting and moving when necessary.
Same here.
My last 3 employers’ HR asked if I owned or rented a home. Neither. I just rent a house. I think they had a bias in hiring someone who owned and needed to commute back on weekends to home.
Renting and not throwing my money away by buying an overpriced Ponzi house.
O.C. homes still triple the U.S. cost
http://lansner.ocregister.com/2011/09/08/o-c-homes-still-triple-the-u-s-cost/122181/
good to see buyers are realistic about future housing prices.
in 2005, it was a bunch of people claiming prices never fall.
in 2007/2008, huge argument over whether it was a slight dip before prices would shoot up again.
in 2009, people calling bottom.
finally, after 5 long years, people have a sense of where prices should be. some are even predicting price declines which is refreshing.
of course many sellers are still in denial, but that doesn’t matter since the buyers won’t touch those overpriced properties.
took long enough for people to catch on.
people are slow (and many sellers are even slower).
The idea of people taking a while to catch on is critical to the understanding of bubbles. There is a large group of economists that believe that prices on assets are correct all the time. Markets use available information to make on aggregate accurate price decisions. A fundamental flaw to this is that nothing happens instantaneously. Look at delinquencies and foreclosures. Someone stops paying on their mortgage and it is many months to over a year before the property becomes available to someone else, pushing prices down. Also those bonds linked to bad mortgages. Were they instantly downgraded when their payment stream started to trickle? You should notice when a stream has less volume, not just when it runs dry.
The psychology behind bubbles is interesting and not getting the attention it deserves.
I am SO glad that I’m childfree by choice!
I’m sure you’re childfree by choice for better reasons than saving on your housing costs 🙂
Yes, much better reasons, lol! Kids are great but not for me. Luckily, my childbearing years are behind me and I don’t have to worry about an “oops!”
I have eight children and I couldn’t think of life without them. No kids by choice? Sounds like a lonely life. Every year our children enrich our lives and we have new experiences that we never would of had without children. Yes, some experiences are challenging but most are rewarding and uplifting. 28 years of marriage and eight children, life is not only good it is great!
Lonely? Bullshit. I have a great life with my partner, friends and family, traveling whenever I want, got an advanced degree, etc. Glad you enjoy your children, but they are not for everyone! Don’t you dare pull a Bingo on me. Plus, don’t you think eight children is a little irresponsible in this day and age?
You are right, children aren’t for everyone. Having eight children isn’t irresponsible if you can afford and plan for them as we did. I haven’t asked you or anyone else for money. No oops in our family.
Best to you and yours. 🙂
Another child-free person here. If what the 8-child breeder calls a ‘a lonely life’ is a life without screaming children or fearing for their future, then bring it on! I’m 55 and have no regrets preferring cats over kids.