The spring selling season is sporting sales declines in 78% of MSAs surveyed, and the prices nationally have fallen 4.5% in the last year.
Irvine Home Address … 3101 SCHOLARSHIP Irvine, CA 92612
Resale Home Price …… $880,000
Rise up this mornin'; smiled with the risin' sun.
Three little birds pitch by my doorstep
Singin' sweet songs of melodies pure and true; saying,
“This is my message to you-ou-ou.”
Singin': “Don't worry about a thing,
‘cause ev-ry little thing gonna be all right.”
Bob Marley — Three Little Birds
Is everything going to be all right? Every press release from the National Association of realtors would lead you to believe so. Remember the post on how realtors spin data? 
Data: Factual statements that present statistics or some measurable phenomenon. Presenting data is ostensibly the reason for a real estate press release. However, the real intention is to spin the data or otherwise manipulate the interpretation.
Spin: The offered interpretation of data that forwards the agenda of the organization issuing the press release. Spin is usually a plausible interpretation that is most often taken out of context, knowingly, by the authors.
Bullshit: An interpretation of data that is either not factual, or the data itself is not factual, or an interpretation that is not plausible based on the data. Bullshit is an obvious lie an organization passes off to a gullible public in hopes that nobody catches on.
The color coding of text above will be used to help decipher the nonsense that follows.
Because the current data is so bad, the NAr set the spin cycle on high for their first quarter report.
Existing-Home Sales Rise in Most States in First Quarter; Metro Area Prices Mixed
Washington, DC, May 10, 2011
Existing-home sales continued to recover in the first quarter with gains recorded in 49 states and the District of Columbia, while 22 percent of the available metropolitan areas saw prices rise from a year ago, according to the latest survey by the National Association of realtors®.
Home sales did not recover in the first quarter. In fact, they are off considerably. While it may be technically factual that gains were recorded in 49 states, it only takes one reporting location to make that statement true. Nearly every state and the nation as a whole saw declines in sales and in prices. Further, if only 22 percent of MSAs saw prices rise, then 78% saw prices go down. The NAr bullshit doesn't pass the giggle test.
Total state existing-home sales, including single-family and condo, rose 8.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 5.14 million in the first quarter from 4.75 million in the fourth quarter, and are only 0.8 percent below a 5.18 million pace during the same period in 2010.
Sales always rise from the 4th quarter to the 1st. Leading off with that spun data point leads them to the far more damaging reality that sales are down from last years anemic levels.
Also in the first quarter, the median existing single-family home price rose in 34 out of 153 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) from the first quarter of 2010, including four with double-digit increases; one was unchanged and 118 areas showed price declines.
That is one of the most egregious statements of bullshit I have seen the NAr put out. If prices are falling in 118 out of 153 MSAs, that is 78% of the market. Prices are falling in 78% of the markets surveyed. Read their statement again. Didn't is sound positive? The bullshit lead discusses how many MSAs where the prices are going up. Unbelievable… well, actually this is the NAr.
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Now let's hear from the master bullshitter, Lawrence Yun.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said home prices are all over the map. “The reading of quarterly price data can be volatile because they are based on the types of homes that are sold during the quarter. When buyers principally purchase distressed properties in a given market, the recorded prices will be very low, which is what we’re seeing now in much of the country,” he said. “Annual price data provides a better guide about the direction of the market in those areas.”
The national median existing single-family home price was $158,700 in the first quarter, down 4.6 percent from $166,400 in the first quarter of 2010.
I think Yun forgot to proofread his own press release. He was trying to spin the data by saying the annual price change is a better guide, but then he followed with the fact that house prices are down significantly from last year.
He's right about this one. The momentum from last years declines will likely carry forward to the foreseeable future.
The median is where half sold for more and half sold for less. Distressed homes, typically sold at a discount of about 20 percent, accounted for 39 percent of first quarter sales, up from 36 percent a year earlier.
That is some very bad data. How do you think he will spin it? 
To clarify, Yun said lower priced homes have seen the best sales performance. “The biggest sales increase has been in the lower price ranges, which are popular with investors and cash buyers,” he said. “The preponderance of sales activity at the lower end is bringing down the median price, so what we’re seeing is the result of a change in the composition of home sales.”
First he is spinning the data by discussing investors and cash buyers. The reality is sales are higher in lower price ranges because that is what people can afford. Affordability is driving sales away from bloated high-end properties toward affordable low-end ones.
He is suggesting in his bullshit that the median home price is artificially low due to a change in mix and things are not as bad as they seem. The fact is high-end prices are too high, credit availability is low, and the buyer pool is seriously depleted. High-end homes will continue to sell slowly until the prices are lowered to affordable levels.
Although sales are slightly below a year ago, the volume of homes sold for $100,000 or less in the first quarter was 8.9 percent higher than the first quarter of 2010, creating a downward skew on the overall median price. The share of all-cash home purchases rose to 33 percent in the first quarter from 27 percent in the first quarter of 2010.
Investors accounted for 21 percent of first quarter transactions, up from 18 percent a year ago, while first-time buyers purchased 32 percent of homes, down from 42 percent in the first quarter of 2010 when a tax credit was in place. Repeat buyers accounted for a 47 percent market share in the first quarter, up from 40 percent a year earlier.
The tax credit definitely pulled forward first-time homebuyer demand. The decline in sales to first-time buyers is not a good sign for a housing market that needs household formation and first-time buyers to mop up the REO inventory.
“The rising sales trend in nearly all states is a part of the healing process to clear off inventory. Sales need to rise before prices can firm up,” Yun added.
Another damaging truth he forgot to spin. Sales do need to rise before prices can firm up. That's why declining sales during a period of the year when they should be increasing is worrying to market analysts.
NAR President Ron Phipps, broker-president of Phipps Realty in Warwick, R.I., said strong sales of distressed homes are exactly what the market needs. “The good news is foreclosures, which account for two-thirds of all distressed homes sold, are selling very quickly,” he said. “Short sales still take far too long to get lender approval, but it appears the inventory of distressed property is peaking and will be gradually declining next year. This means the market should slowly return to balance. We are encouraged that recent home buyers are having exceptionally low default rates.”
If two-thirds of sales are distressed properties, prices are going to go down. He spins the data by saying these are selling quickly, but based on the data above, that is bullshit.
If the inventory of distressed homes won't peak until later this year and begin to decline next year, what is the urgency to buy?
Recent home buyers are not having exceptionally low default rates unless you are comparing their default rates to the garbage loans underwritten at much higher prices during the 00s. Current default rates are still elevated well above historic norms even for the newest vintage of loans because prices are still falling and most recent buyers with low down payments are already under water.
The rest of the report is data, so I will spare you the green text. I have highlighted the interesting facts to bring them to your attention.
According to Freddie Mac, the national commitment rate on a 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.85 percent in the first quarter, up from a record low 4.41 percent in the fourth quarter, but below the 5.00 percent average in the first quarter of 2010.
In the condo sector, metro area condominium and cooperative prices – covering changes in 53 metro areas – showed the national median existing-condo price was $152,900 in the first quarter, down 10.4 percent from the first quarter of 2010. Eleven metros showed increases in the median condo price from a year ago, one was unchanged and 41 areas had declines.
The condo market is a shambles. Prices are down more than 10% year-over-year, and prices have declined in 77% of the MSA polled. That is horrible. 
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast increased 0.8 percent in the first quarter to a level of 800,000 but are 7.3 percent below the first quarter of 2010. The median existing single-family home price in the Northeast declined 5.0 percent to $234,100 in the first quarter from a year ago.
Existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 7.9 percent in the first quarter to a pace of 1.09 million but are 5.0 percent below a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the Midwest fell 5.3 percent to $124,400 in the first quarter from the same period in 2010.
In the South, existing-home sales increased 8.5 percent in the first quarter to an annual rate of 1.96 million and are 2.8 percent higher than the first quarter of 2010. The median existing single-family home price in the South slipped 0.6 percent to $141,800 in the first quarter from a year earlier.
Existing-home sales in the West jumped 13.5 percent in the first quarter to a level of 1.29 million and are 2.1 percent above a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the West fell 4.7 percent to $197,400 in the first quarter from the first quarter of 2010.
Did you notice that in every region prices declined? Sales were mixed, but the price drops were uniform. Nothing in this press release was encouraging, and for an organization dedicated to creating false urgency in buyers, it's very difficult to spin to their advantage. Perhaps someday, they won't try? I'm not holding my breath.
$1,093 HOA dues
Today's featured property is a flip in Avenue One, an Irvine high rise that never should have been built. It's a standard flip from what I can tell. My data source does not have the purchase record on this property. I was surprised by this seller believing they could fetch a price that the previous seller could not get last year when prices were higher. Perhaps he believes the property is now more valuable because he owns it. Or perhaps he is a delusional fool who will either lose money or fail to sell the property.
Property History for 3101 SCHOLARSHIP
| Date | Event | Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 04, 2011 | Listed (Active) | $880,000 | ||
| Dec 30, 2010 | Sold (MLS) (Closed) | $700,000 | ||
| Dec 23, 2010 | Pending (Backup Offers Accepted) | — | ||
| Oct 22, 2010 | Price Changed | $798,500 | ||
| Oct 20, 2010 | Price Changed | $799,500 | ||
| Oct 06, 2010 | Price Changed | $829,500 | ||
| Jul 15, 2010 | Listed (Active) | $849,500 | ||
The HOA dues in these towers are shocking. With monthly cash outlays exceeding $5,500 and a cost of ownership exceeding $4,300 per month, why would anyone buy one of these?
Oh yeah, prices are going back up…
Irvine House Address … 3101 SCHOLARSHIP Irvine, CA 92612 
Resale House Price …… $880,000
House Purchase Price … $700,000
House Purchase Date …. 12/30/2010
Net Gain (Loss) ………. $127,200
Percent Change ………. 18.2%
Annual Appreciation … 56.2%
Cost of House Ownership
————————————————-
$880,000 ………. Asking Price
$176,000 ………. 20% Down Conventional
4.62% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate
$704,000 ………. 30-Year Mortgage
$155,033 ………. Income Requirement
$3,617 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment
$763 ………. Property Tax (@1.04%)
$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)
$183 ………. Homeowners Insurance (@ 0.25%)
$0 ………. Private Mortgage Insurance
$1093 ………. Homeowners Association Fees
============================================
$5,656 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays
-$868 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)
-$907 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment (Amortization)
$305 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)
$130 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves
============================================
$4,316 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership
Cash Acquisition Demands
——————————————————————————
$8,800 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%
$8,800 ………. Closing Costs @1%
$7,040 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan
$176,000 ………. Down Payment
============================================
$200,640 ………. Total Cash Costs
$66,100 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves
============================================
$266,740 ………. Total Savings Needed
Property Details for 3101 SCHOLARSHIP Irvine, CA 92612
——————————————————————————
Beds: 2
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 1715
$513/SF
Property Type: Residential, Condominium
Style: One Level, High or Mid-Rise Condo
View: City Lights, City, Faces West
Year Built: 2008
Community: Airport Area
County: Orange
MLS#: U11001952
Source: SoCalMLS
Status: Active
——————————————————————————
A perfect 10! Located in one of Irvine's most exclusive, prestigious and sought after communities, this 2 bedroom and a den stylish 10th floor, high-end luxury high-rise home boasts the picturesque city view during the day, and gorgeous city lights view at night; this home will absolutely take your breath away. A jaw dropping gourmet kitchen with granite counter tops, marble flooring and all built-in Viking appliances. Community ammenties include rooftop pool and firepit, a large oversized clubroom with full gourmet catering kitchen, outdoor bar-b-ques, indoor gym, and a wine room with private storage locker, 24 hour lobby attendant and concierge service. HOA dues includes: internet, TV, water, gas, trash, insurance, 2 parking spaces, storage space and numerous guest parking. With so many upgrades throught out this home, this hidden gem is a must see. Call for appointment today!
ammenties? throught?
Have a great weekend,
Irvine Renter
Everyday I drive by and look at these “things”, I wonder what has happened to the american psyche? This type of living I only pictured for myself when I was old and feeble, where you are dependant on others, and cannot take care of your own property. These units are the sister to the NKT just down the street. On a good day with wind conditions, you get to be blessed by the sewage treatment plant that lies a few hundred yards away….yummy! However, it *IS* Irvine excrement being treated so it doesn’t really stink.
For $1,000 a month in HOA, they should have staff readily available to pleasure me once a week.
What would a unit like this rent for? There has been a lot of press on the benefits of renting vs. buying and that has been a strength of this blog too.
Realtors push buying. Think about the commissions if this property changed hands 3 times in 3 years, vs having 3 different renters? It’s nearly $150k difference to the realtors.
The 6% off the top is much easier to handle in an inflationary environment, when even 2%/yr appreciation makes up for the commission after 3 years. I think you’d necessarily see sales slowing with lower levels of price appreciation solely due to the transaction costs being a bigger portion of the selling price – buying price margin.
I’m suprised no one has made a “non-profit” company to buy and sell real estate….kind of like how credit unions stick it to the banksters.
How nice would that be …”Real Estate Credit Union”….enough fees to keep staff paid, no where near billions of profit, however, this is america and corporate whores will win out in the end. Unrestrained capitalism…it’s what many of you spout, how do like the effects of corporate greed? I knew you would.
I helped a friend of mine lease a property in The Plaza, it was just under 1400 square feet, 1 bedroom, plus an office/den for $2400 in 2009. He has solid income, good credit, and got married about a year ago. His fiancé now wife was encouraging him to buy at the time and I know would still like to purchase something soon.
However, they really like this building and as a result they have been patient. They are looking at a completely different property type to raise a family when they buy. However, some people really like The Plaza and based upon past analysis I’ve done renting makes a lot more sense than owning one of these, particularly given the potential for huge assessments down the road.
We get a lot of calls for the Marquee and Plaza because we come up in search engines when people are looking for these buildings, when I tell people what a mess the HOA is, particularly in the Marquee most people decide against it or that if they really want this location and property type and choose to lease. I have not run an analysis on these units in over a year; however, the last time I ran one it was not even close to being worth owning. Moreover, with the potential for huge assessments, possibility that financing will not be available in the future due to high HOA delinquency, and overall high down side risk versus upside potential, I have to believe that those buying in these building are not given an accurate picture.
“We get a lot of calls for the Marquee and Plaza”
Amazing. Simply amazing.
Aye crazy that people want to make a commitment to $1k monthly HOA fee, but a nod to Shevy for giving them more accurate information to make a decision by, THAT quality is rare. Nice to hear, well done Shevy.
P.S. I never hug anyone’s nuts…even mine LOL!
“What would a unit like this rent for?”
At Essex Skyline (just one exit up the 405) in what is arguably a nicer hi-rise (2bdrm/2bath, similar size, granite/wood floors/Viking, walls of glass, killer views, etc.), one can rent for $2700.
Essex Skyline is a failed condo tower that was turned into successful rentals after sitting empty for 2 years.
Why would one pay $5500/mo to buy, when you can rent for awhile (saving $30k/yr) and then move on?
“just one exit up the 405”
That’s a great euphemism. Not that this condo tower is really Irvine but still a great euphemism.
How about:
“just a few hundred points from being accepted at an Ivy league school.”
“just one good parent away from not going to prison.”
“just a few hundred thousand dollars away from buying a home in Irvine.”
You are so stupid. It is one exit.
Avenue One is on Jamboree/405.
Essex Skyline is on MacArthur and Main.
It’s “4 miles” which would make them seem incomparable, had I said “4 miles away”, but they are not. Essex Skyline carries a Santa Ana address, but is right on the city line. Close to performing arts center, South Coast Plaza. No kids here (it’s a 1 or 2 bdrm hi-rise), so no one cares about the school district. The buliding/neighborhood is actually far superior to Avenue One (actually more urban, which hi-living should be).
Anyway, the point bring made is what you CAN rent for vs. Buy!!
Yes it’s one exit, but it’s more like a thousand miles away.
PR, it may be irvine, but it’s zoned for SA schools. Is the bi-lingual education your kids will get for $880k also a benefit ?
LOL classic.
I would much rather rent here: http://skylineocrentals.com/
Then pay $880,000 for Avenue One.
Why are you renting in Santa Ana? Isn’t it far cheaper to buy there now.
I wouldn’t live in either condo tower. If I wanted that life style I would leave this area.
I guess this is where people have to agree to disagree as real estate choices are about personal needs:
a) Cannot “leave the area”
b) Always loved modern hi-rise living (from NYC)
Hence, I can rent in a modern SantaAna hi-rise or buy in a place like Ave One. That explains: my nic SantaAnaRenter 🙂
I hear the point yer making PR, but in this case, they are right…it’s one exit. Of course, you have the taint of Santa Ana out your backside, but hey, it’s CLOSE to Irvine.
Not one of these units appeals to me, unless of course, I get a free library of EVERY Lawrence Welk taping. One of the requirements of moving in; you should be incapable of wiping your own a$$. Requirement, not an option. For those who can take care of themselves, they should not be allowed to live in “assisted living” area such as these retirement towers.
“Another working day has ended
Only the rush hour hell to face
Packed like lemmings into shiny little boxes
Contestants in a suicidal race”
You should check out the upscale condos near the Staple center or in more premium areas of LA. They may meet your needs better if you are looking for that life.
However I expect you’d be happier moving to a different city all together.
you are mistaken…this is not avenue one. avenue one is the low rise condo complex right in front of it that is like the watermark”e”.
i think he is talking about how hard it is to get in and out of that complex.
The watermarke, avenue one and these towers all feed into it with every small access points. It takes forever to get into the complex.
🙂
For those who can take care of themselves, they should not be allowed to live in “assisted living” area such as these retirement towers.
Santa Ana Renter has a point. The area he speaks about is far more walkable. The point of living in these types of high rises is to park your car when you get home from work and leave it in the parking garage until you have to work again. You should be able to walk to the store, to entertainment and to shopping. None of the Irvine condos have this luxury. Trying to walk to mothers from the North Korea Towers amounts to taking your life in your hands through that parking lot.
Aren’t these high rises in Irvine geared toward college kids going to UCI or Chapman?
Eventually they’ll change the name and address to:
FCB Plaza
888 UCI Dorms
Check your bag of gold at the door
They should use that in their press release.
I doubt that. In not too short a time, US education will fall well behind other nations and Europe. So instead of people coming here for the high standard of education they’ll send there kids elsewhere. The only instutions that will hold any water will be private schools. In a generation or two, public university education in the US will be regarded as second tier. Bank on it. Just like the HS diploma is today.
What?!?!? How dare you infer that the free market will not automatically result in the very best of everything!
Remember, socialism is the DEVIL, even when it benefits you, please vote down your own interests by voting democrat or republican, I thank you, and your ignorant and broke offspring thanks you.
You know what would fix the education system? Loans that cannot be defaulted on and instituting the Univerity of Chevron or Halliburton School of Cement Technology. Damn socialists, I vote for ripping up every road and damn built any government. Social Security needs to be abolished as well. How dare ANY of you collect checks from evil social institutions, lazy slackers.
tenmagnet- I do not think that the target is college kids. They are relatively nice and I believe that they shoot to be viewed as luxury living,they are relatively successful at this, at least compared to where I lived in college and even when just getting out into the real world after college. I would estimate that they are geared more towards young professionals.
It has a feel of living in an upscale hotel with more space.
First, this isn’t Ave 1, its the PLAZA. I live in Ave 1 and this 4story complex sold 2B+loft for 700k at one point to people wanting to live in a luxury product. Problem is that everyone is underwater and desperate now so instead of luxury living, it has become UCI+right out of college rentals.
Today I doubt any UCI’r is renting in PLAZA but its just a matter of time until the owners of these underwater units get desperate and offer a 2B to 4 college kids.
This is the Plaza. There are 2 buildings. Its in the same boat as its Big Brother up the Street the Marquee. $ 1100.00 Dollar HOA Fees. I have seen the 2 bedroom units at the Marquee rent for as low as $ 2500.00 a month. Only issue is you got to hope and pray the owner is keeping up on the Mortgage so you dont get booted out when it sells at the Court Steps. The High Rise experiment in Irvine has been a total disaster since the Collapse that started in 2006/7.
The original Buyers got creamed unless they flipped them quick back in the day.
We call the Marquee the North Korea Towers locally. Maybe we need a new name for the Plaza too.
Supply is rising and rental parity is now well established for SFR’s inside the Woodbridge loop. Well, at least for the cottage SFR’s, and I expect that we’ll see some overshoot on those before the bottom is in. We can expect to see rental parity, at the
Brand new listing today, 6 Silkleaf: http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/6-Silkleaf-92614/home/4691467. It’s a short sale listed for $495K.
This makes 4 listings, 3 of them model matches, on the same block. There is already a recent model-match sale comp on this block at $480K. All of this should be enough to scare the pants off of all of these owners, but it should especially frighten the owners of the open house at 24 Wayfarer that I looked at today: http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/24-Wayfarer-92614/home/4692458. Since that property first listed back in March, they have reduced their price by $95,000, but they are still way above these nearby comps and potential comps. Wayfarer is a beautifully upgraded property, but those improvements still aren’t going to get them anywhere near their current asking price of $600K. Basically, this is a race to the bottom, and 24 Wayfarer is currently running dead last.
I am seeing nothing but price reductions, increasing supply, and desperation across the board in Woodbridge. I don’t watch the other neighborhoods as closely, but I suspect the same is true throughout most of Irvine.
-Darth
P.S. Rental parity for the Carmel plan cottage SFR’s at 1,571 sq. ft. is based on sale price of $495K, rental comp of $2700/mo, HOA+insur of $213, conventional financing with 20% down, and NOT taking the tax advantages of ownership into account. Not accounting for the tax advantages of ownership is a more conservative comparison that compensates for me also not factoring in the opportunity cost of the down payment money and not factoring in ongoing maintenance costs (both have too many variables to accurately calculate).
Hmm, looks like I forgot to complete one of my sentences. Or it got chopped somehow.
In any case, for the last sentence in the first paragraph above, I meant to say: “We can expect to see rental parity, at the very least, for the non-cottage SFR’s.”
-Darth
It will probably happen. Redfin is now listing Irvine available homes/condos for sale just below 900.
Let’s see if another Bernokio QE will help the housing price 😉
Falling house prices mean more hardships for owners
Centerville, Virginia (CNN) — The fallen value of Nancy Logan’s home is making her chances of keeping it seem next to impossible. So the single mom sought an audience with the president of the United States.
Logan, who raised her plight with President Barack Obama last week during a CBS News town hall forum, is being laid off from her job with a government contractor. In January, her monthly mortgage payment will rise by $1,000 because her temporary loan modification — made the last time she needed a break three years ago — will expire.
Like millions of Americans, thanks to falling U.S. home prices, she is “underwater,” owing more than the house is worth. This means she can’t clear her debt by selling, and another loan modification — which she says she needs to keep the house — appears unlikely.
“My question to you, Mr. President, is do you have any plans to help improve the housing market so hardworking Americans like myself don’t lose their homes?” Logan, of Centerville, asked Obama during Wednesday’s taping in Washington.
***** Ponderlay Dr
Centreville, VA 20120
Zestimate®: $304,500
Price History
Date Description Price
04/26/1999 Sold $143,250
Am I the only one who senses that the article is leaving something out?
“Like millions of Americans, thanks to falling U.S. home prices, she is “underwater,”
What do falling house prices matter? She bought before the bubble even expanded.
How can she be underwater if she bought in 1999 for $143,250 and Zillow estimates the “fallen” price to now be at $300,000?
I would imagine that even unemployment insurance would cover the payment on a 143K house with 12 years worth of equity in it.
I wonder if the author of the article is leaving something out; “medical bills” perhaps?
AZDave, how can you be such a heartless, cruel person? This is probably a case of medical bills for the children. There is no way any owner would liberate equity from their home if it wasn’t for such an important issues. 🙂
medical bills for the children
Yes! Tell me, Mr. Obama – what are you going to do to help house prices for hardworking Americans with children and medical bills?