Even as today's featured property emerges from the shadows, the future inventory of foreclosed homes and distressed real estate continues to grow.
Irvine Home Address … 42 POTOMAC Irvine, CA 92620
Resale Home Price …… $535,000
I shut and lock the front door.
No way in or out.
I turned and walked the hallway, and pulled the curtains down.
I stayed where my last step left me.
Ignored all my rounds
Soon I was seeing visions and cracks along the walls.
Oh. They were upside down. Oh. Oh.
Pearl Jam — In Hiding
I was caught completely by surprise by the squatting and the shadow inventory phenomenon. During the last housing crash, banks did not let delinquent borrowers stay in their homes for years without paying. In fact, lenders have never allowed borrowers to keep houses they are not paying for. This time they are.
Yesterday, we looked at the 25% strategic default rate in Las Vegas. The Las Vegas market was dominated by subprime, so it was crushed along with other subprime dominated markets from 2007 to 2009. Lenders learned from Las Vegas that if they foreclosed and processed properties according to standard loss mitigation procedures, they push prices back to mid-90s levels and hold them there while the entire housing stock turns over due to strategic default. Determined to avoid a repeat of the same in every housing market across the country, lenders chose not to foreclose when their prime customers began to default.
Shadow inventory is largely a banking problem. Private investors in mortgage-backed securities either privately or through the GSEs have already taken most of their write downs. They don't have the luxury of mark-to-fantasy accounting like our major banks do. The banks amend loans, extend terms, and pretend the loan will get paid in the end. In the process, they accummulate shadow inventory.
Banks grip on prime shadow inventory growing: Morgan Stanley
Whether they like it or not, the nation's banks control most of the country's shadow inventory, according to a report Friday from Morgan Stanley.
Even more, properties in imminent default are typically cheaper homes with prime mortgages. The analyst adds that their findings buck conventional wisdom that these homes are either concentrated in the slums of Detroit, or prevalent amongst cardboard cutter McMansion neighborhoods.
I wonder if blogs like this one or stories like Profiles in Squatting: Ladera Ranch, California, have created a “conventional wisdom” that says foreclosures are prevalent in McMansion neighborhoods. They are, but more on that later.
The shadow inventory, they say, is the biggest problem for average Americans living in the nation's major cities.
And, what's more, the homes are more and more being controlled by the banks, as opposed to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or private securitization trusts.
“While agencies certainly maintain control over a large portion of the shadow inventory at just over a third, we can see that the majority of the control over delinquencies is in the hands of the banks, and their share has increased over the past year,” reported Oliver Chang, James Egan and Vishwanath Tirupattur (see chart below):
“This may be because borrowers are becoming delinquent at a faster rate for bank-held loans, but checking transition rates for each controlling party, we do not see a significantly larger change in transitions into delinquency for bank-held loans,” they added.
Of the shadow inventory, 75% are valued below $250,000, showing that McMansions have a small share of delinquencies (see below chart):
Let's take a closer look at their data and see if it really supports their contention that McMansions are not a big part of the problem. First, in many markets you can find McMansions for under $250,000. Their dividing line is somewhat arbitrary. Since the national median is about $170K, it isn't surprising that 75% of houses fall below $250K whether their owners are delinqent or not. The data fails to establish a baseline of the total percentage of homes in those price categories for comparison.
If they wanted to establish that McMansions are not the problem, they need to define what a McMansion is, and then they would need to demonstrate that foreclosure statistics among McMansion owners is lower than or equal to the rates of other borrower classes. The data above establishes none of that.
Also, it's quite concievable that the total dollar value in loans is actually greater in the top 25% than in the bottom 75% combined. It takes ten $50,000 mortgages to equal one $500,000 mortgage. it is also unclear whether the amounts refer to current value or the value of the loan as shown on the bank's books. How many $400,000 loans are on properties in shadow inventory worth $170,000?
Despite this weakness in their analysis, there is clearly a lot of shadow inventory, and it is going to crush all price points.
Further, the shadow inventory is growing across all of the United States. The analyst expect that more than 8 million liquidations are in order over the next five years before housing stabilizes.
“While hard-hit cities represent a more than fair share of shadow inventory, its distribution broadly encompasses all corners of the country,” said the analysts.
The liquidation of subprime early on in the recession is now being replaced by later delinquencies in prime collateral.
First subprime, then prime. I think that has been discussed before:
The avalanche of foreclosures caused by the subprime ARM resets flattened the housing market. The avalance of prime foreclosures is being held in shadow inventory pending the banks deciding it's time to clear out the squatters.
The shift in collateral is making the supply imbalance worse for the best part of the credit spectrum.
CoreLogic said in September that based on the shear number of prime mortgages in the market, that foreclosure and delinquency rates would steadily tick upward. Compared to the less than 3.5 million subprime, there are about 40 million prime loans in the marketplace, 6.2% of which were 60 days delinquent in June 2010 and 3% of which were 90 days delinquent.
“We do see a slowdown in liquidation rates of bankheld loans, suggesting that the increasing share of shadow inventory is due to banks holding onto their delinquent loans longer than agencies or private securitization trusts,” they said.
Follow him on Twitter @JacobGaffney.
Shadow inventory is now in the hands of the banks, and how the banks dispose of their shadow inventory will determine what happens to house prices.
Irvine prime shadow inventory hits the market
We don't serve subprime in Irvine. Out of shadow inventory and into the light of the MLS. Today's featured property is an example of the shadow inventory the article is talking about.
Prime borrowers took on debt loads that were too large because they ddin't believe they would ever have to pay off the debt. They would continue to add to their mortgage every year as free spending money and pass that debt on to the future buyer of their house when they finally wanted to move. The owner of today's featured property had only owned it for about three years when they had already cleared a quarter million dollars in HELOC riches.
Since clearing a quarter million dollars, he stopped making payments in early 2008, and he is still listed as the owner on title.
Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 06/08/2010
Document Type: Notice of Sale
Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 09/24/2008
Document Type: Notice of Sale
Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 06/17/2008
Document Type: Notice of Default
This family doubled their mortgage in three years. Do you think their household income doubled? The families just like this one all over America are what make up the huge shadow inventory.
Irvine Home Address … 42 POTOMAC Irvine, CA 92620 
Resale Home Price … $535,000
Home Purchase Price … $348,000
Home Purchase Date …. 1/31/2002
Net Gain (Loss) ………. $154,900
Percent Change ………. 44.5%
Annual Appreciation … 4.8%
Cost of Ownership
————————————————-
$535,000 ………. Asking Price
$107,000 ………. 20% Down Conventional
4.84% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate
$428,000 ………. 30-Year Mortgage
$108,768 ………. Income Requirement
$2,256 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment
$464 ………. Property Tax
$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)
$89 ………. Homeowners Insurance
$90 ………. Homeowners Association Fees
============================================
$2,899 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays
-$383 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)
-$530 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment
$199 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)
$67 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves
============================================
$2,251 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership
Cash Acquisition Demands
——————————————————————————
$5,350 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%
$5,350 ………. Closing Costs @1%
$4,280 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan
$107,000 ………. Down Payment
============================================
$121,980 ………. Total Cash Costs
$34,500 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves
============================================
$156,480 ………. Total Savings Needed
Property Details for 42 POTOMAC Irvine, CA 92620
——————————————————————————
Beds:: 3
Baths:: 3
Sq. Ft.:: 1535
$0,349
Lot Size:: 3,500 Sq. Ft.
Property Type:: Residential, Single Family
Style:: Two Level, Traditional
Year Built:: 1985
Community:: Northwood
County:: Orange
MLS#:: S645158
Source:: SoCalMLS
Status:: ActiveThis listing is for sale and the sellers are accepting offers.
On Redfin:: 6 days
——————————————————————————
Great Irvine Home – Short Sale subject to lenders approval. Featuring 3 Bedroom, 2.5 Baths, 1535 square feet, 2 car Detached Garage. Family room with fireplace. Largest model in the tract. Short walk to Brywood elementary school and park. Great Northwood home with assoc. pool, spa, and tennis
Rejoice !!!!! At $2250 monthly cost of ownership, today’s featured property can be purchased below rental parity. A middle class Irvine family can afford this and little Sally and Johnny can have their very own yard to play in. Middle class values are not dead.
“Short Sale subject to lenders approval.”
Lets not schedule Sally’s and Johnny’s birthday parties until the bankster approves.
In the mean time little Johnny can dream of making 10 free throws in a row, and winning an NBA title in his driveway with a last second shot.
Kids in the slums of Detroit can do that. In fact, those slums most likely give more fire to dreams then the easy living in the paradise of Irvine.
What’s that I hear? The sound of moving trucks heading from Irvine to Detroit for hoop dreams.
Little Johnny (asian or white) is shaking in the back seat, tears running down his face anticipating his new life free of comforts but fueled by a new found hunger to be a gun slinging baller.
Sort of off topic but still an interesting observation. We recently went on a Disney Cruise and it was interesting to see that at least 50% (crude estimation) of the families onboard had gramma and grampa along for the ride. Now, one could argue that this is how the majority of families vacation together but I have never seen that high of a percentage of grand parents. Could it be that the ATM at the house no longer spits out money but many still feel entitled so they hit up mom and dad for the vacation? It was just too high a percentage not to notice. Just wondering…
The local parks in Irvine are a much better place for kids to shoot hoops or have birthday parties.
Perhaps, perhaps you could have a better game on a perfectly manicured, police enforced, highly educated Irvine public court.
But would you get the same love oozing out of this angled down hoop, ball bombarded roof, slopped court, dual functioning arena???
So true PR.
In certain areas, the City of Irvine will allow you to reserve your own area.
Irvine SWAT will even show up if kids not affiliated with your party wander over and enter your kids bounce house.
The small premium is worth the piece of mind.
You two clowns should get a room so you can climax over your Irvine lovefest.
You two clowns should get a room
Preferably a room at the North Korean Towers.
Wow, I can only imagine the talent that would be attracted to the NK Towers, plenty of 10 models. Grenade whistle not required.
“You two clowns should get a room so you can climax over your Irvine lovefest.”
I am still laughing….
This 3BR SFR would have easily sold for over $750K during the bubble, and perhaps much higher than that. Now it’s selling a short hop from PR’s long-derided price point of $499K, and he’s cheering?! What happened to all the chest-thumping proclamations about cash-heavy FCB’s chasing all the middle-class whites from Irvine and driving house prices into the stratosphere? My, how PR’s tune has changed!! Did your broker send out a new meme or something?
-Darth
P.S. Or do FCB’s turn up their noses at any Irvine property without a 3CWG?
A majority of FCBs chase premium product.
They want to brag to their friends back home and not suffer the life long shame attached to buying this fixer/throwback from the ‘80s.
In this vicinity, they’ll over pay in Northwood Pointe, Northpark and Woodbury.
And the tune changes…
First, it was “Irvine is immune”.
Now, as the beasts of shadow inventory, strategic defaults, expiring Option ARM’s, and ever-descending home prices eat further into the promised land, the new line is “well, parts of Irvine are immune”.
If I were in a truly upscale locale (NOT Irvine; the next rungs up the ladder would be CdM or Newport Beach), I’d be getting nervous watching the previously-immune lose their immunity.
Quote most likely spoken recently by any given Newport Coast [r]ealtard: “FCB’s chase premium product. They would never suffer the lifelong shame of buying in Irvine. They’ll overpay in Newport Coast.”
IRVINE IS NOT IMMUNE!
-Darth
Don’t worry, PR and ten, once interest rates collapse again prices will soar and you will have the last laugh. I am certain of it. Keep stroking yourselves and be strong.
David, WARNING, make sure you don’t have any sharp objects in your had or within arms reach when you read the next line:
The DOW closed above 12,000 today.
Money continues to fall from the sky. Try not to get too depressed.
Why would I care one way or another if the DOW closed at 12,000 today? Ohhh, the magical 12,000 “psychological” mark. Wooo, here, watch me stroke myself. ErrEEE ErrEEE!
Fed passes China in Treasury holdings
By Michael Mackenzie in New York
Published: February 2 2011 00:01
The Federal Reserve has surpassed China as the leading holder of US Treasury securities even though it has yet to reach the halfway mark in its latest round of quantitative easing, according to official figures.
“Or do FCB’s turn up their noses at any Irvine property without a 3CWG?”
More like older homes.
Not a single 2010 New Home Collection SFR had a 3CWG yet they sold every one faster than anyone expected.
And there are more to come… next on tap, the 2011 New Home Collection… also overpriced but for some reason in demand.
iho: “Not a single 2010 New Home Collection SFR had a 3CWG yet they sold every one faster than anyone expected.”
Of course they did! They were priced BELOW the CURRENT market! They were still overpriced compared to historical economic fundamentals, but they were underpriced compared to the market price at that time. (which is still falling)
iho: “And there are more to come… next on tap, the 2011 New Home Collection… also overpriced but for some reason in demand.”
BZZZZZTTTT!!! Got some examples for us? Care to share any? If demand is high, you can bet the properties are priced below the current market. The OC Register and your [r]ealtard cheerleading blog will, of course, conveniently omit this factoid as you trumpet “The Return of the Housing Market!”
-Darth
Priced below market? Are you sure you are including the $12,000 to $20,000 per year these properties require in large HOAs, mello roos taxes, not to mention upgrades that are piled on? Priced below market, yeah right.
Vader: “Of course they did! They were priced BELOW the CURRENT market! They were still overpriced compared to historical economic fundamentals, but they were underpriced compared to the market price at that time. (which is still falling)”
Not really. In raw square footage maybe, but if you include lot size, cost to landscape, MRs etc, a 3br/2.5 bath traditional SFR for $805k for a Sonoma Plan 1 is overpriced compared to resale 3br/2.5s in Irvine. In fact, there were multiple Portisol 3/2.5s that closed ranging from $750k-$790k in the last 6 months in Woodbury alone.
Anakin: “BZZZZZTTTT!!! Got some examples for us? Care to share any? If demand is high, you can bet the properties are priced below the current market.”
Sevilla Phase 1 sold out just this last week… in one week. That’s a detached condo project ranging from the mid $500ks and up. Remember, IR has said that it’s not low prices that cause high demand. So why is Irvine in high demand? There are many new home communities in Orange County that are priced below current market but none have sold at the pace the Irvine ones have. Please explain that to me with your buzzer.
Personally, I don’t think they are underpriced, they are just easier to buy (no worrying about short sale approval, competing bids or previous homeowner issues) and have that New Home Smell™.
Luke’s Father: “The OC Register and your [r]ealtard cheerleading blog will, of course, conveniently omit this factoid as you trumpet “The Return of the Housing Market!”
Easy… I’m not cheerleading any return of housing… just delivering the news. I’m actually hoping the market softens further with all this new product so prices can come down even more. I had wished that would happen with the 2010 Collection but all those FCBs proved me wrong (and hence TIC kept raising prices EVERY phase).
But there are only a limited number of buyers according to AZDave so this bodes well for more price drops in 2011 and onward (plus Lennar’s Great Park seems to be hurrying TIC into releasing homes sooner than later).
Maybe if you read the forum (it’s not a blog) you would see that most of the members still think Irvine is overpriced.
But there are only a limited number of buyers according to AZDave
Let the lemmings keep on marching in. For their sake, I hope they are buying with cashed out bubble equity rather than their own “hard earned” savings.
TIC is top tier.
Their villages/communities are the gold standard.
The Great Park by Lennar will be the equivalent of VOC.
Look how well that turned out.
Why do any of us care about prices today?? What is important is what is pricing when we need or want to sell 5,10, 20 yrs from now….???
If you buy now just be prepared to stay and pay, and hope you don’t need or have to sell in the next decade. Prices will be the same or lower…
BD
I used to think that employers should have no right to perform credit checks as part of an interview process. But the last couple years have changed my mind.
So I am curious about what other readers here would do. If you were interviewing two candidates for a job with similar resumes, and one had a default in their credit report, and one did not, would you prefer the candidate who had the clean history?
Is your answer different if the position involved handling a budget? What if it involved evaluating vendors and productions and making cost benefit analysis?
It isn’t a matter of a candidate breaking the law, or doing something immoral, it is just a default, right?
But then an employment relationship is just business too… In an at-will employement state, as long as an employer follows their severance rules, and as an employee gives his 2 weeks notice, then all is good, right? But most employees want an employer that has some amount of loyalty, and vice versa.
To turn the question around, if you are interviewing for a job and are evaluating a company to see if you want to work there, does it’s credit rating matter to you?
Despite what others may tell you here, I can confirm that financial history and credit definitely factors into employment decisions.
I have seen candidates rejected due to poor credit and poor financial discipline. Some may argue this is unfair, but it is reality. There are ramifications the debtors will need to deal with.
This fear is the only thing keeping a friend of mine from strategically defaulting. You just don’t want to give any reason to an employer to pass you over today. If you have some valid sob story you can sell, that’s one thing.
I highly doubt that a mortgage default will raise too many red flags in the current environment as it can be easily explained away. They are looking for things that demonstrate irresponsibility. If you defaulted because you lost your job and the bank would not work with you, not a big deal. However, if you refi’d your house and bought a dozen houses to flip and walked away from them all when the market tanked – that’s another story.
PR makes it sound like if you have a credit score below X then you are blacklisted which is hogwash.
The importance of credit history varies by industry. If you want to work at a reputable financial outfit you better have ok credit, and any default on any loan obligation may be grounds for elimination from consideration.
Because no reputable financial outfit has ever defaulted on any one of its own obligations.
It can definitely keep you from getting a security clearance.
Free service: measurement of lot size
I found many mistakes of lot size in listings. And many mistakes are in public record.
For example:
28 vienne, irvine, listed size is 7950 sq.ft. actually it is 6950 sq. ft.
2585 schooley dr. Tustin, firstly listed as 3971 sq ft.(from public record) and helped the seller’s agent change to 4971 sq. ft.
12440 HAZELTINE Dr, tustin, listed at 7000 sq ft. Actually is less than 6000 sq ft.
If you are not sure of your lot size I can help you to measure it immediately using high tech.
I could really use this service! My wife is constantly ‘mis-measuring’ my lot size!
Pay you to measure lot size? Google Earth can do the same with a reasonable amount of precision without ever leaving your desk. If you’re willing to actually visit the property, a measuring tape plus 8th-grade algebra skills can complete this task with greater precision. For a square lot, it’s just length times width! A $150 laser measuring tape can speed up the task and leave you with a fun toy to boot!
Are people actually paying money for you to measure square footage?!?! And to think I wasted all that time and money on an engineering degree!
-Darth
P.S. On the other hand, you can’t really expect the average [r]ealtard to perform this task for you. After all, just because the California school system gave them a H.S. diploma doesn’t mean they can do H.S.-level math. Just look at all the Californians with H.S. diplomas that can barely read or write, and these [r]ealtard’s poorly-written property descriptions make a lot more sense.
Darth, good to hear a fellow engineer on the board. The math skills of your average “college eduacated” adult in this country are absymal. I would be willing to bet that most people with non technical oriented degrees would fail middle school algeba or geometry…it’s that bad! We are going to get eaten alive by the Chinese and Indians. They actually value technical degrees and their governments encourages people to study them. Here in this country, engineers are laughed at. Why go through all that hard work when you can make more money selling houses, cars or insurance?
wheresthebeef,
True, engineers are laughed at, but not nearly as much as machinists. There’s a group that takes almost as much higher-level math as many engineers, has to buy their own shop tools, AND gets to ruin their body with backbreaking work. For a few more engineering classes, you can sit behind a desk, sip your coffee, get paid more money, and you can still walk when you’re 55. With this kind of perverse system in place, it’s no wonder that we can’t compete in the manufacturing space!
-Darth
P.S. The sit-behind-a-desk part is, of course, the raw deal for most engineers. On most days, I think I’d rather not be able to walk at age 55 than have to spend 30 years behind a desk. ;-D
P.P.S. I missed the “free” part on my first read. If you’re not charging, I guess I don’t object to the solicitation, but it does seem pathetic that the average person can’t do this for themselves.
-Darth
What a supersmart guy!
If it’s a square or rectangular lot, we’re talking about a single multiplication problem: length times width. How hard is that?
Even if it’s an odd-shaped lot, you don’t have to be that smart. How smart do you have to be to partition a lot into a bunch triangles and rectangles, multiply length times width for each (halving the triangles), and add them all together? Is this beyond the ability of the average American? That’s sad if it is.
-Darth
Your lot dimensions will rarely be exactly what you see on the deed on parcel map.
Irvine holds a special fascination for me…as an adult, I’ve known several parents who dreamed of an Irvine home so their kids would be safe and secure; their child’s future success assured by high test scores and good schools…and as a young adult I met many kids who grew up in Irvine who so thoroughly loathed the conformity and boredom of the place they counted the days until they could finally escape “the People’s Republic” forever.
It’s always about the children, isn’t it? It’s never about running on the hamster wheel and keeping up with the Joneses.
Parents are drawn to Irvine/South County, approved by friends and family for making the right choice. Local schools produce high test scorers, children who undoubtedly become winners. The neighborhood block party is a level playing field; Dads form a circle to discuss sports, Moms debate which local bakery produces a superior cupcake. Here comes a delivery truck…someone bought new stainless appliances! Neighbors gather to discuss granite versus marble countertops. Whew.
No one I knew who grew up in Irvine stayed on-moved to LA, SF, out of CA. I recall jokes about if a garage was left open a certain length of time, parents were afraid a warning letter might arrive. But prices remain high-people must desire this lifestyle.
Hi everyone…I’m just catching up with old posts I’ve missed for the last few weeks. You see I’ve been busy moving…we listed our Woodbridge 3/2 condo in December 1, went into escrow on December 20 and closed the deal January 28.
Sorry IR and Shevy, we went with a different realtor.
We’re now renters.
Yippeee!!!!
Congratulations! I hope you are enjoying your new place and your new circumstances.
Are you still going to watch the market and read the IHB?
Congratulations, Sue! Must feel good.
You write a check and it goes against your and there is not money in the bank you get a bounch check fee. When a bank writes a check and there is no money they call it a loan.
Friends,
Those of you sitting there scratching your heads as to why this is all happening…well I offer you this free video that will literally change your life. Watch when you have at least 2 hours.
youtube(dot com)/watch?v=fYYiv0w9Vk0&playnext=1&list=PL4FDFA323AAFE4C2D
Take notes… this stuff can be hard to understand.
Watch again if needed.
Then pass it on to those you love.
Believe me, two hours later..you will be in a much much better place.
The cat is out of the bag…it is never going back in.
Sort of off topic but thought it to be interesting. We recently took Disney Cruise and I couldn’t help noticing that at least half of the families on board had granny and grandpa along for the ride. Now one could argue that this is how most families travel together but I don’t ever remember seeing so many grand parents traveling with mom, dad, and the kids. Could it be that the ATM at home no longer spits out money but people still feel entitled so they hit up grandma and grandpa to spring for the trip? Just wondering…It was too high a percentage not to notice.
Low rates prompting more ‘cash-in’ refinances
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/01/AR2011020105892.html
Isn’t the squatting what is keeping the economy “afloat”. They are not paying any rent/mortgage etc. and are using the extra wealth to keep their style of life going. I mean how many of these people are actually making the hard choice of using this extra cash to pay off all their bills if we are seeing rising retail sales? Not many I suspect. Doesn’t the real crash come if/when the banks are forced to deal with their squatters? And of course the squatters are forced to deal with their reality. Considering this has gone on for as easy four years now, we could be well on our way to a lost two decades in the housing market. Do we actually know how much shadow inventory there is or, is this a just another updated WAG? The utter annihilation of the industry.
Yes, you are right AZRed it is difficult to find out how much shadow inventory is out there. But, honestly it is about people´s financial discipline. I know that to have a regular income is important and definitely less frustrating comparing to be unemployed. I believe that everything is possible to sort out if you communicate with bank or lender. Together you can always find the right solution. I know what I´m talking about from my own experience.