It never rains in Southern California, right?
Irvine Home Address … 88 CANOPY Irvine, CA 92603
Resale Home Price …… $799,000
Seems it never rain in Southern California
Seems I've often heard that kind of talk before
It never rains in California
But girl, don't they warn ya
It pours man it pours.
Albert Hammond — It Never Rains In Southern California
Housing Market News
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Fri Dec 17 2010
House sellers still slashing prices in San Francisco (bizjournals.com)
Sacramento prices continue to decline (sacbee.com)
MLS forbids Redfin from telling true asking price history in Sacramento (blog.redfin.com)
Orange County still largely in a housing bubble (doctorhousingbubble.com)
CA foreclosures ease, but sales sag because prices still too high (pe.com)
California's house price recovery could be faltering (latimesblogs.latimes.com)
US house prices continue to plummet (centralvalleybusinesstimes.com)
Shadow Inventory Dampens Winter Market (nytimes.com)
Americans living on financial fault lines (contracostatimes.com)
Where does our money go? The Cost of War (costofwar.com)
Mortgage servicing suffers from endemic principal-agent conflict (4closurefraud.org)
WikiLeaks: “Systemic Insolvency Is Now The Problem, Global Bank Bailout Needed” (dailybail.com)
Banks Push Fed to Curb Borrowers' Right to Rescind Mortgages (bloomberg.com)
Mortgage loan foreclosures slowed by robo-signing scandal (ourbroker.com)
Geithner: National foreclosure moratorium would hurt house prices (housingwire.com)
Advantages of house buying explained to you (patrick.net)
Thank You Kenneth M. ($50) for your kind donation.
Thu Dec 16 2010
Southern California housing market falters in November (latimesblogs.latimes.com)
Housing recovery slips — sellers slashing prices, says report (centralvalleybusinesstimes.com)
Where House Prices Are Falling Dangerously (realestate.yahoo.com)
House sales slow in November (blogs.pe.com)
Mortgage Applications decline, Mortgage rates rise sharply (calculatedriskblog.com)
Strategic Foreclosures are Increasing (africanaonline.com)
Are Mortgage Defaulters Getting a Pass? (curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com)
House builders still gloomy, new data show (msnbc.msn.com)
Moody's sees more foreclosure delays in 2011 (bloomberg.com)
Moody's May Cut US Rating on Tax Giveaway To Richest (cnbc.com)
Market alarm as US fails to control biggest debt in history (telegraph.co.uk)
He's a renter: Facebook billionaire CEO Mark Zuckerberg (gawker.com)
Man Dares Bank To Foreclose Unless They Reverse Bad Fees, Wins (consumerist.com)
Ron Paul: “Bernanke Is The Greatest Counterfeiter In The History Of The World” (dailybail.com)
Will the Fed be able to survive Ron Paul? (finance.fortune.cnn.com)
Greeks upset about being sold into slavery to pay bankers' debts (Mish)
Give Up on the Estate Tax — Make Inheritance Income (nytimes.com)
Does Inequality Cause Financial Crises? (theatlanticwire.com)
Mapping US Census Data – very cool! (projects.nytimes.com)
Wikileaks To Take On Bank Of America (theonion.com)
Thank You Marten T. ($100) and Remington L. ($30) for your kind donations.
Find home security systems and low cost monitoring from ADT. (Ads by Patrick)
Wed Dec 15 2010
Foreclosures are down but not because housing market is up (mercurynews.com)
Yahoo to lay off 600-700 (contracostatimes.com)
For Rent: 1/1 at 380 Talbot Ave, Pacifica, CA 94044 (patrick.net)
OC's distressed houses now at 39% of market (mortgage.ocregister.com)
Despite price cuts, sales tough at Evanston project (chicagorealestatedaily.com)
Housing-market reports remain mostly bleak (azcentral.com)
Pixie Dust Loses Magic as Foreclosures Slam Utopian Disney Town (bloomberg.com)
Foreclosures Expected To Top 1.2M This Year; 2011 Will Have Even More (consumeraffairs.com)
Strategic defaulters opt to continue paying on second liens (housingwire.com)
US foreclosure-prevention program fell short (washingtonpost.com)
What's a house worth? Pick a number, any number (Compare it to renting, fools!) (news.yahoo.com)
Bloodbath in Muni Bond Funds; Reasons for the Selloff; Will it Continue? (Mish)
Munis Hit As Market Braces for BABs' End (online.wsj.com)
Student Riots and Protests in England (hubpages.com)
Want To Ruin Your Own Country? Assume Your Banks' Liabilities (gonzalolira.blogspot.com)
And ANOTHER $900 billion put on federal tab as gift to very rich from middle class (huffingtonpost.com)
10 Years of the Dollar vs. the World (forbes.com)
Happiness doesn't increase with growing wealth of nations (guardian.co.uk)
Thank You Patrick A. ($40) for your kind donation.
Find the real worth of property, based on rents (Ads by Patrick)
Tue Dec 14 2010
New Rent vs Buy Calculator (patrick.net)
Calculator discussion (patrick.net)
Time For Real-Estate Watchdogs To Start Howling Again (blog.niemanwatchdog.org)
Housing Market on Edge as Lenders Get Tougher (online.wsj.com)
Fewer U.S. Houses Were Under Water — Because Foreclosures Rose (bloomberg.com)
Wells Fargo cuts 137 East SF Bay jobs (contracostatimes.com)
Buying a hillside house? Be careful (ocregister.com)
NY Brokers Prepare for Wall Street's Bonus Season (nytimes.com)
Virginia house sales plunged 41% in November, compared to November 2009 (dailypress.com)
US role in housing market makes it harder to predict end of crisis (philly.com)
Fed Research Paper Concludes Loan Modifications “May Increase Strategic Defaults” (Mish)
Will Obama's tax deal hurt housing prices? (curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com)
Mortgage-Bond Slump No Fun for Housing as Rates Increase: Credit Markets (bloomberg.com)
America's Economic Illness: We've Got a Bad Case of Baumol's Disease (dailyfinance.com)
What's Causing U.S. Personal Spending to Drop: Job Losses, Fear or Both? (pbs.org)
China's Army of Graduates Struggles for Jobs (nytimes.com)
Candians worried about clear title to US foreclosures (nationalpost.com)
Australia is different (australianhousehunters.com.au)
Do people really click on these things? (Ads by Patrick)
Thank You Harry A. ($25) for your kind donation.
Mon Dec 13 2010
Luxury house prices are still heading down (latimes.com)
Jumbo loan market completely evaporated (doctorhousingbubble.com)
House values lose $9 trillion since 2006 peak (moneycentral.msn.com)
Housing inflation years off, poll says (journalgazette.net)
Main player in high-end mortgage fraud scheme due in court (blog.cleveland.com)
1.6 Million Put Off Retirement (blogs.wsj.com)
Markets defy feds bond buying push (finance.yahoo.com)
Bond Massacre Hits Treasuries; Is Bond Bull Finally Over? (Mish)
Recession Lasting Until 2018 Worth Exploring (bloomberg.com)
Commercial real estate company runs on no-mortgage philosophy (nctimes.com)
Banks allowed to let foreclosures rot, empty (dailyfinance.com)
A Secretive Banking Elite Rules Trading in Derivatives (nytimes.com)
Wells Fargo opposes banks on mortgage-risk rule (sfgate.com)
Chanos again warns on China's bubble economy (unconventionaleconomist.com)
Record land price in Shanghai (shanghaidaily.com)
Democrats Should Disregard Clinton's Endorsement of Obama's Tax Deal (robertreich.org)
Estate Tax Cutoff Draws Special Fire in Congress (nytimes.com)
Vast majority of wealth is INHERITED. Only “negligible fraction” is earned. (PDF – kotlikoff.net)
Chase Bank ransacked house of man on his death bed (komonews.com)
Why pay bridge tolls if you have government license plates? (mercurynews.com)
Find the real worth of property, based on rents (Ads by Patrick)
Got their $100K
The former owners of this property paid $605,000 on 9/19/2003. Within nine months, they had their downpayment back, and by the time they stopped HELOCing this place, they had $712,323 in mortgage debt for a mortgage take of over $100K.
Aren't Irvine houses great?
Irvine Home Address … 88 CANOPY Irvine, CA 92603 
Resale Home Price … $799,000
Home Purchase Price … $605,000
Home Purchase Date …. 9/19/2003
Net Gain (Loss) ………. $146,060
Percent Change ………. 24.1%
Annual Appreciation … 3.9%
Cost of Ownership
————————————————-
$799,000 ………. Asking Price
$159,800 ………. 20% Down Conventional
4.87% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate
$639,200 ………. 30-Year Mortgage
$163,001 ………. Income Requirement
$3,381 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment
$692 ………. Property Tax
$150 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)
$133 ………. Homeowners Insurance
$247 ………. Homeowners Association Fees
============================================ 
$4,603 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays
-$822 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)
-$787 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment
$299 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)
$100 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves
============================================
$3,394 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership
Cash Acquisition Demands
——————————————————————————
$7,990 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%
$7,990 ………. Closing Costs @1%
$6,392 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan
$159,800 ………. Down Payment
============================================
$182,172 ………. Total Cash Costs
$52,000 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves
============================================
$234,172 ………. Total Savings Needed
Property Details for 88 CANOPY Irvine, CA 92603
—————————————————————————— 
Beds: 4
Baths: 2 full 1 part baths
Home size: 2,100 sq ft
($380 / sq ft)
Lot Size: 4,000 sq ft
Year Built: 2003
Days on Market: 33
Listing Updated: 40527
MLS Number: S639085
Property Type: Condominium, Residential
Community: Quail Hill
Tract: Laur
——————————————————————————
TREMENDOUSLY UPGARDED WITH BAMBOO WOOD FLOORS, CUSTOM DESIGNER CARPET, GARNITE COUNTERS, STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES,CUSTOM PAINT, FIRE PIT, BEST SUN EXPOSURE ON THE PLANET! LESS THAN A STONES THROW TO AWARD WINNING ELEMENT5RAY SCHOOL, FANTASTIC RETAURANTS AND EASY ACCESS TO ROADS. THIS WILL GO FAST, SO HURRY! ASSOCIATION AMENTIIES ARE INCERDIBLE – GYM, POOLS, TENNIS, SOCCER, RUNNING TRAILS!
UPGARDED? AMENTIIES? ELEMENT5RAY? GARNITE?
BEST SUN EXPOSURE ON THE PLANET!
Check out this satellite imagery of the housing bubble in China:
http://www.businessinsider.com/pictures-chinese-ghost-cities-2010-12?slop=1#slideshow-start
“The former owners of this property paid $605,000 on 9/19/2003. Within nine months, they had their downpayment back, and by the time they stopped HELOCing this place, they had $712,323 in mortgage debt for a mortgage take of over $100K.
Aren’t Irvine houses great?”
Yes they are, this home will sell for $780-$800K with a $200K cash down payment.
Oh yeah and let me stress this, since nobody wants to talk about it:
NEW BUILDING AND PLANNING CONTINUES IN IRVINE.
Sorry for the bold all caps in advance, but nobody want to talk about this, and buyers are stepping up with 20-100% cash. I guess in Irvine if you build it they will come. What recession.
PR has been irritable since interest rates started jumping.
he’s always irritable
Irvine houses are great. I am actually very curious where this one will close. 380 a square foot seems to be a strong support level in QH for detached product.
“NEW BUILDING AND PLANNING CONTINUES IN IRVINE.”
So what? New planning and building continued in Riverside County in 2007-2008. It didn’t mean that prices weren’t declining.
This quote made me smile today:
“Abusing a home equity line of credit – This one is hard to accomplish these days, as banks have really tightened the reins on home equity loans.” 🙂
http://www.mainstreet.com/article/moneyinvesting/credit/debt/more-retirees-going-bankrupt
The idea that rising incomes would raise the price of existing home stock assumes negligible amounts of new construction or home improvements. Say someone moves to a town who makes well above the median income. Ideally that person would add a home to the stock of a price above the median. While the median home price has changed, the value of the other homes should not have.
If there is a supply constraint, you could see an increase in the value of land, but the structure should not appreciate. The flip-side is true if there is an excess of supply.
As much as I don’t want to admit it (I’m one of those waiting on the sidelines – waiting for prices to go even lower in Irvine), there is evidence to support PR:
http://irvinehomes.ocregister.com/2010/12/10/home-sales-strong-at-irvines-newest-community/15664/
http://irvinehomes.ocregister.com/2010/12/08/irvine-homebuying-bucks-countywide-trend/15654/
http://irvinehomes.ocregister.com/2010/12/14/which-irvine-zip-saw-a-30-median-home-price-jump/15674/
Ok, if you don’t want “pr article out of the irvine company”, go take a nice drive to Portola Springs – they are still building out there. No freaking way I would buy there – it’s right under a huge landfill:
http://egov.ocgov.com/portal/site/ocgov/menuitem.02b739dec30413a69add603d100000f7/?vgnextoid=a43cb0d5a553a110VgnVCM1000005b00610aRCRD&vgnextchannel=0cb245f36dce8110VgnVCM1000005b00610aRCRD&vgnextfmt=default
Of course, as you drive around Irvine, you’ll also notice the abundance of empty land, which shows you how good TIC is at controlling their development in order to generate maximum profit.
So, who cares about the huge ass landfill, as long as the schools are great and the weather is good (for the most part).
Personally, I really do wish TIC and OCR are making up all of their numbers and prices crater 80% overnight once people find out. If that ever happens, I’ll be more than happy to kick and fight thru the ocean of Asian people rushing to buy in Irvine.
So, I say to the Fed and the ‘powers that be’, jack up interest rates, and stop bailing out the banks and let them all reorganize under bankruptcy, reinstate mark to market accounting, and eliminate the mortgage interest deduction, and let free market forces do its magic on the housing market.
Ho Ho Ho – Merry Christmas!
1. Irvine Co. owns the land,
2. Constuction prices are historically low and very cheap.
3. Irvine Co. probably dont even need financing to build new constrution.
4. Blame it on banks who are holding thousands of homes in shadow inventory which is giving Irvine Co. a good chance to sell to suckers at high profit margins. As a business, Irvine Co. is doing the right thing.
5. If anyone argues that Irvine is not in distress, get a trial membership of RealtyTrac and look up all distress homes in preforeclosure, foreclosure, Auction, and REO that are not on markets yet.
Prices will fall, but not until banks release inventory. 2010 was election year and its now passed. 2011 could be the year where you can clense the system without jeorardizing elections in 2012. We could see a big dip in next 9 months and then some recovery leading to 2012 elections.
If you are unaware of the building and planning in Irvine or what detached QH is going for then you aren’t serious about buying in Irvine.
If you want to see an even stronger local market check out Manhattan Beach. The recession never happened there.
PR, I wouldn’t compare MB and Irvine. Commoners can live in Irvine, never in MB. I think the median is still over 1M there.
As far as MB real estate goes, it is super sticky but is still coming down. What makes MB special: beach city, safe, good schools, older entrenched money, great climate, 15 minutes from LAX, close to downtown and close to many job centers, easy freeway access and no more land to build on. There are many two income professionals who desire this area, not to mention there is still tons of bubble wealth from the last 10 to 15 years where prices went ballistic. This is all fine and dandy; however, your generation will NEVER be able to afford this area without a big drop in prices.
This area is similar to Newport. Unless you make really good money or have rich parents, forget about it. You can still buy a decent place in Irvine with a 150K salary, don’t even look in MB making that chump change.
I was saying that Manhattan Beach has been even more impressive than Irvine.
We agree, deal with it.
The performance of Manhattan Beach and Irvine tell the economic story of the well to do and wealthy if you care to listen and accept the reality.
My generation? I have friends who bought in MB with cash. Personally I don’t desire MB, I would never live there even though I can afford it. Crap boxes for over a million within a short drive to slums. To each their own. I do agree there is plenty of money that wants to live in MB. There is limited supply and tons of money in LA.
I grew up in MB, have been watching the MB Confidential blog, and I do not get the prices. The schools and the teachers are wonderful, but Irvine schools are just as good and Irvine homes are much less. Unless you live on The Strand, your views are always obstructed by overhead power and telephone lines. Why the film and television industry chose the beach cities is not something I understand.
If you are on the strand I get it, but otherwise I can’t see why people choose MB.
Awgee it’s amazing how MB has changed since you were a kid. It’s the reality of American capitalism that at one time only three decades ago blue collar folks could own there.
PR, like I mentioned before you can’t lump MB and Irvine together. In Irvine, a 150K salary gets you a nice place. You probably need double that in MB. I would not consider a family income of 150K today wealthy or well to do if you want to live in premium parts of LA or OC.
I listed many of the reasons why MB is retaining its price. This is no different than many parts of West LA. I personaly hate Santa Monica, but many people obviously love it and it has quite a premium if you want to own there.
Given all that LA has to offer, I question why Irvine has the price premium it has. In the end, Irvine is a suburb. You still need to drive quite a distance to get out of that bubble and enjoy the many things this area has to offer.
What you are missing is that many people want nothing to do with LA and don’t view MB and SM as being all that interesting. MB and SM will always have a greater premium than irvine. A crap box in MB goes for $900K while a crap box in Irvine can be had for $300K.
… When I was a kid …
many of the dads were aerospace engineers, and there were pilots and stews. Don’t get your _______ all in a wad. That is what they called flight attendants back then. The beach area was a bit run down and lots of single folks lived there. Nobody was as yet tearing down the beach shacks and building three story places that fill up the lot. I doubt if any beach shacks are left.
My next door neighbors and I would carry, barefoot, a nine or ten foot log about a 1/2 mile down to the beach and take turns learning how to surf. The ones not board surfing would ride blow up surf mats. Does that tell you how old I am? We would fill up our mats with air at the Shell station on the corner of Marine Ave. and Manhattan Ave. and we would split a burger from Macs at Marine and the Strand for $0.50. My paper route was on the hills from 8th St to 18th St. It was brutal on a bike with paper bags. I threw the Herald Tribune. Most of my friends went to Laurel and then Center. I went to Martyrs. On Saturday we would go to Joe’s Candy Cottage and then to the matinee and the LaMar. You could get hang ten shirts and cords from Young Gentry and my dad’s two favorite places to take me for breakfast were The Wooden Shoe and The Koffee Kart. We did not hang at Uncle Bills cuz that was for posers. Beckers Bakery was da kine.
Why would anybody want to live in Sa Mo? Gross.
The newly arrived engineers from Michigan or wherever driving their Corvettes from Champion Chevrolet and drinking Harvey Wallbangers would think they were real cool by saying, “There’s no life east of Sepulveda.” Well, they couldn’t surf and to let them know just what kind of posers they were we would respond, “There’s no life east of Manhattan Ave.”
Awgee, thanks for the cool story. MB has changed so much you wouldn’t even recognize it. Go down MB Blvd. near the pier and you’ll find Paris Hilton wannabes and young MILFs parading around having lunch while the nanny is home with the kids. The singles/dating scene is beyond pretentious…it’s all about materialism, plastic (not credit cards) and money.
Awgee nice stories, and I agree I wouldn’t want to live in SM even MB is not appealing I will take Laguna Beach any day.
I know I really do love OC but, the houseing is a tremendous disaapointmet only offset by the weather.
I’m wondering how many of you have actually seen “nice housing” in other parts of the country? Where I grew up in the MidWest is soooo much nicer it is hard to describe. I grew up in a 6000 square foot house on a two acre wooded lot. It is nicer than anything I see here until I hit the $2M dollar mark in Coto…
BTW, my childhood home would sell today for about $500K.
…just a question and observation. Most in SoCal and OC don’t really know what nice is IMHO. They overpay for very, very, little.
BD
Yup, an acquaintance of mine looking for a house in the San Jose area told me, “anything below $1.5 million is garbage here, and I’m not interested in a million dollar mortgage for the privilege of living here.”
Well he can always leave his $350k per year job and get the hell out of Cupertino. The choice is his. I’m sure some one will want to take his place.
What happens as these IT/engineering rock stars continue to be outsourced out of CA, or the US?
My spouses six figure IT job vaporised when they closed the CA operations. Most of our former coworkers are currently UE, underemployed at much lower pay, or chose to relocate out of California with their current employer to keep their job.
Cupertino and Manhattan Beach real estate goes like hot cakes. It’s cream of the crop premium. It’s like the recession never happened. The wealthy are doing just fine.
I rent a in a beachside town in OC, many neighbors are old timers, own multiple rentals, local businesses, etc. We talk…multiple unfilled vacancies, lowered rents, lowered RE values; one neighbor lost over a million when WAMU imploded. Many of their adult children are UE/underemployed and have moved back home or live in one of Mom and Dad’s properties. All the “wealthy” are not doing “just fine”. Many I know are very worried about the US economy, especially California.
I wouldn’t consider Cupertino, Manhattan Beach or Irvine “cream of the crop premium” but that’s just my opinion. Best of luck to you.