Turtle Rock has some beautiful homes, but do any of you think prices have appreciated there more than 30% since 2005? WTF?

Irvine Home Address … 10 KEPLER Irvine, CA 92603

Resale Home Price …… $2,290,000

Risin'up back on the street

Did my time, took my chances

Went the distance now i'm back on my feet

just a man and his will to survive

so many times it happens too fast

You trade your passion for glory

Don't lose your grip on the dreams of the past

You must fight just to keep them alive

It's the Eye of the Tiger

It's the thrill of the fight

Risin'up to the challenge of our rival

And the last known survivor

Stalks his prey in the night

And he's watching us all

with the Eye of the Tiger

Survivor — Eye of the Tiger

IHB News

I was recently asked in the astute observations for an update on the operations of the IHB.

Since I returned from vacation on July 6th, blog traffic has been tremendous. We are now averaging between 3,500 and 5,000 unique visitors each weekday. On July 29th, the post Another Ignorant and Misguided Attack on the 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage was picked up by a major political blog and we set a four-month traffic high with 6,696 visitors on that one day.

July's traffic will surpass June's. Below is a modified screenshot from Compete.com. They have only recently begun tracking the individual blogs at the OC Register, and I have no idea how accurate their data is.

As you might expect with a name like Irvine Housing Blog, the majority of the traffic is local readers. The traffic stats below come from Clicky.com, and they reflect unique visitors over the last 30 days. Interesting that the blog is popular in New York City.

Ideal Home Brokers has been doing very well this year — thanks primarily to the good work of Shevy Akason, George Ross and Rana Swedan. Shevy, George, and Rana have closed 15 sales for IHB readers and referrals this year, and as our testimonials relate, their work is well received. Additionally, Shevy, George, and Rana currently have 16 escrows scheduled to close in August and September. I am thrilled with the work the team is doing, and we are all looking forward to continued growth in that business.

The poorest kept secret on the blog is the formation of an investment fund composed primarily of IHB readers. I am pleased to announce that I have enough cash in the fund account to buy the first property — not that I am planning to buy one before September — so the fund is large enough that it will certainly go forward. Last Sunday's event was attended by about 40 people, and 25 of them signed up to receive more information on the fund, and most stayed through at least one of my informal presentations. Further, I have answered over 40 email requests for information on the fund and I have personally met with about a dozen potential investors individually. Two of my advisor-friends have congratulated me on the fundraising efforts. As professionals in finance and law, they both have relayed the difficulty many hedge funds have experienced raising capital over the last 18 months. Perhaps the success in fundraising signals the bottom of the recession. Let's hope so. BTW, this report is in no way a solicitation to anyone to invest in the fund. I am merely reporting the facts.

I have not reserved the room yet, but we will probably have one more IHB event on Sunday, August 22nd. Stay tuned for more details.

Housing Bubble News from Patrick.net

Fri Aug 6 2010

Morgan Stanley Sees San Francisco Housing Double-Dip, NY Gains (businessweek.com)

Million dollar California foreclosures — 35 examples (doctorhousingbubble.com)

The Return of the $1,000 Down Mortgage (washingtonindependent.com)

"Too many houses, not enough buyers" WRONG! Prices still too high (blogs.wsj.com)

Sellers' satisfaction plummets as buyers get better prices (lansner.ocregister.com)

There's Still This Huge Housing Bubble Yet To Pop In Australia (businessinsider.com)

Fannie and Freddie to be used to harm new buyers? (blogs.reuters.com)

Could the government create a backdoor bailout? (marketwatch.com)

Bailout of Housing = Bailout of Banks (Charles Hugh Smith)

Housing limbo: Owners won't pay, banks won't evict (kansascity.com)

Housing ATM Empty: HELOC Abuse Hits Record Low (irvinehousingblog.com)

Foreclosure Fee Feast (sandiegoreader.com)

The rich and the rest of us (salon.com)

Richest 400 (avg $340M income each) pay only 17% tax; middle class pays more (huffingtonpost.com)

Estate tax bills take aim at growing 'aristocracy of wealth' (news.yahoo.com)

Debt Cemetery (bullionbullscanada.com)

Senate reform: Lazing on a Senate afternoon (economist.com)

Freshman Dems Push To End The Filibuster, Face Dem Opposition (talkingpointsmemo.com)

Credit history fraud: 2 charged in first-of-its-kind case (washingtonpost.com)

Fighting parents' eviction, student wins rounds against Deutsche Bank (latimes.com)

Free Trial of the Property Finder

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Thu Aug 5 2010

Solve Our GSE Problem: Abolish Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac (businessinsider.com)

Housing price drop in San Diego predicted (signonsandiego.com)

Los Angeles: Bel Air 90077 Prices Melt Down (westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com)

Vancouver sales plummet 47% compared to same month last year (fvreb.bc.ca)

Beijing billionaire sees no housing bubble (or doesn't want to) (brisbanetimes.com.au)

China's overhang of empty apartments (marketwatch.com)

Foreclosure reduces a house's sale price 27% (benefitting buyers) (physorg.com)

Rise In Foreclosures Burdens States, Economy (And Benefits Buyers!) (gpb.org)

Government Refi Program Would Kill Housing Market (and benefit buyers) (bayarearealestatetrends.com)

Did Low Interest Rates Cause the Great Housing Convulsion? (economix.blogs.nytimes.com)

The Art Of Tax War (finance.yahoo.com)

Pension fund knew about high Bell salaries but didn't stop them (latimesblogs.latimes.com)

Private employers' hiring weak in July (jan.ocregister.com)

Corporate Hiring No Longer Improving; American Less Optimistic (Mish)

Can the Federal Reserve Prevent Deflation? (buygoldandsilversafely.com)

How to ask for a rent reduction (patrick.net)

Deflation in pay (nytimes.com)

Deflation in food: Del Taco to sell 59-cent tacos for 39 cents (fastfood.ocregister.com)

Free Trial of the Property Finder

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Wed Aug 4 2010

How far from reality are MLS photos allowed to be? (patrick.net)

It Is Too Soon To Buy-And-Hold Housing (bayarearealestatetrends.com)

Pending Sales of Existing U.S. Houses Decrease 2.6% (bloomberg.com)

Pending Houses Sales Hit New Record Low Again (housingstory.net)

Condos that cost less than cars (money.cnn.com)

How to Lose $2,650,000 in Irvine Real Estate (irvinehousingblog.com)

Real estate agent accused in 'builder kickback' scheme worth $5 million (builderonline.com)

Countrywide Financial agrees to pay $600 million to settle shareholder lawsuits (latimes.com)

The biggest lie about U.S. companies (marketwatch.com)

John Paulson Will Be Wrong This Time (lewrockwell.com)

Personal Income Flat, Private Wages and Salaries Decline in June (Mish)

Commercial real estate maturities will peak in 2012 – $350 billion coming due (mybudget360.com)

Landlord deal prolongs housing crisis for NYers (greenwichtime.com)

Stop Blaming US For Housing Bubble (businessinsider.com)

Steroids for Government's Housing Manipulation? (theatlantic.com)

The Foreclosure Crisis That Will Not Go Away (huffingtonpost.com)

Hostile foreclosures: are you liable for damaging your own house? (ksl.com)

Be careful what you say. Freedom of speech? Going… (news.cnet.com)

Free Trial of the Property Finder

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Tue Aug 3 2010

Winning bid on mortgage buys family heartache (sfgate.com)

Foreclosure Inventory May Pull Down Prices To Bottom In 2011 (nuwireinvestor.com)

Housing: Still Flooded (finance.yahoo.com)

5 reasons why California real estate market will weaken (doctorhousingbubble.com)

How Housing Bust Helps Get Disadvantaged Families Into Plush Houses (npr.org)

China's Shark Loan Ponzi Finance (israelfinancialexpert.blogspot.com)

Jim Rogers: The Next Bubble Is Bond Market (news.yahoo.com)

BP Spill May Cost Gulf Coast Houses $56,000 Apiece in Price (bloomberg.com)

Banks failing at a faster pace (news.cincinnati.com)

Banks wouldn't do things that are sleazy and illegal, would they? (chicagonow.com)

Governments remain not just beholden to banks, but scared of them (atimes.com)

Affluent counties evade property tax better than poorer ones (latimes.com)

Property taxes make it hard to justify buying (patrick.net)

America's system is broken, unless you're already rich (theautomaticearth.blogspot.com)

Congress cares about taxes on richest 1% of population, not about the unemployed (nytimes.com)

America is 234 Years Old Today – Is It Finished? (philstockworld.com)

Free Trial of the Property Finder

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Mon Aug 2 2010

Foreclosures spread across Maryland (washingtonexaminer.com)

Foreclosures hurt Hawaii condos (and help buyers!) (staradvertiser.com)

Chicago foreclosures mean falling prices, good news for buyers (suntimes.com)

Houses keep falling into foreclosure as gov't programs fail to harm buyers (mcclatchydc.com)

Ownership Subsidies: Dream Houses or Disasters? (newgeography.com)

Housing subsidies should be reduced, says Hank Paulson (washingtonpost.com)

Greenspan Says Decline in House Prices Might Bring Return of Recession (bloomberg.com)

US Now Openly Fabricating Statistics (bullionbullscanada.com)

Slight 2.4% GDP growth signals slowing economy (latimes.com)

With Recovery Slowing, the Jobs Outlook Dims (nytimes.com)

Housing figures don't tell full story (redding.com)

Builders' pricing strategies aimed at creating deceptive sales urgency (latimes.com)

What Would Roosevelt Do? (nytimes.com)

US Treasury Bond Issuance Graph (prudentbear.com)

What about China's "Nuclear Option" of Dumping Treasuries? Can Global Trade Collapse? (Mish)

Wealth, poverty and compassion: The rich are different from you and me (economist.com)

Further Evidence Of Stock Quote Manipulation (zerohedge.com)

House listing on Craigslist, but delisted from MLS. Why? (patrick.net)

Old Debts That Won't Die (nytimes.com)

Robber says he did it to go back to prison for medical care (signonsandiego.com)

Irvine Home Address … 10 KEPLER Irvine, CA 92603

Resale Home Price … $2,290,000

Home Purchase Price … $1,680,000

Home Purchase Date …. 6/29/2005

Net Gain (Loss) ………. $472,600

Percent Change ………. 28.1%

Annual Appreciation … 5.9%

Cost of Ownership

————————————————-

$2,290,000 ………. Asking Price

$458,000 ………. 20% Down Conventional

4.57% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate

$1,832,000 ………. 30-Year Mortgage

$451,229 ………. Income Requirement

$9,359 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment

$1985 ………. Property Tax

$0 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)

$191 ………. Homeowners Insurance

$274 ………. Homeowners Association Fees

============================================

$11,808 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays

-$1622 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)

-$2382 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment

$781 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)

$286 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves

============================================

$8,872 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership

Cash Acquisition Demands

——————————————————————————

$22,900 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%

$22,900 ………. Closing Costs @1%

$18,320 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan

$458,000 ………. Down Payment

============================================

$522,120 ………. Total Cash Costs

$135,900 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves

============================================

$658,020 ………. Total Savings Needed

Property Details for 10 KEPLER Irvine, CA 92603

——————————————————————————

Beds: 4

Baths: 2 full 1 part baths

Home size: 3,400 sq ft

($674 / sq ft)

Lot Size: 9,000 sq ft

Year Built: 1985

Days on Market: 153

Listing Updated: 40248

MLS Number: P724857

Property Type: Single Family, Residential

Community: Turtle Rock

Tract: Cs

——————————————————————————

EXQUISITE HOME WITH 180 DEGREE VIEWS! UPGRADED VIEW HOME W/4BEDROOMS & 2.5 BATHROOMS. MASTER BEDROOM W/SITTING AREA & BALCONY TO ENJOY VIEWS. ROLLING HILLS, CITY LIGHTS & RESERVOIR VIEWS ARE ALL MAGNIFICENT FROM THE MASTER BEDROOM. MASTER BATHROOM IS REDONE W/GRANITE, BUILT IN VANITY & SEP. TUB/SHOWER. LIVING & FAMILY ROOM FEATURES FIREPLACES & IS THE PERFECT PLACE TO ENTERTAIN. FAMILY ROOM IS THE PERFECT PLACE TO ENJOY UNOBSTRUCTED SUNSET VIEWS ON A CLEAR DAY. GOURMET KITCHEN REMODELED W/GRANITE, CENTER ISLAND & AN AMAZING EATING AREA. FORMAL DINING ROOM OFFERS DIRECT ACCESS TO BACKYARD. OVER $500K IN UPGRADES INCLUDE:BRAZILIAN WALNUT WOOD FLOORS, CUSTOM WINDOWS, CROWN MOLDING GORGEOUS STAIRCASE & MORE. ALL OF MAIN FLOOR & MASTER BATHROOM BOASTS HEATED FLOORS. ENJOY LUSH GREENERY, WATERFALL & FAUNTAINS. THE GORGEOUS WATER FEATURES ADD TO THIS BEAUTIFULLY DESIGNED BACKYARD. THIS TURTLE ROCK HOME IS A TRUE GEM W/THE THOUGHTFUL LAYOUT THAT MAXIMIZES ALL THE BEAUTY OF THE SURROUNDINGS.