13 thoughts on “Black Friday”

1. Freetrader November 27, 2009 at 6:18 pm

   They make the gates out of security guards? Wow, that must be expensive.
   1. dirk November 27, 2009 at 6:53 pm

      Irvine is to The OC as Green Zone is to Bagdad.
2. AZDavidPhx November 27, 2009 at 6:28 pm

   Let the hype begin!

   http://www.crackthecode.us/images/lets_shop.jpg

   Happy Buy-Nothing Day everybody.
   1. IrvineRenter November 27, 2009 at 7:19 pm

      LOL! Another great Photochop.
3. AZDavidPhx November 27, 2009 at 6:32 pm

   .
   http://www.crackthecode.us/images/YouNeedCredit.jpg
4. Sue in Irvine November 27, 2009 at 8:56 pm

   I’ve never gone shopping on black Friday. I hate shopping. We’re putting up our lights today.
5. scott November 27, 2009 at 10:04 pm

   This is from today’s LA Times…I don’t mean to speak ill of Ms Willison but, if I had been recently laid off, I can get wanting the Cabbage Patch Kids doll for $9 for her daughter, but why the side trip to the Coach outlet to get a $330 purse?

   “Becky Willison, 31, of Covina was one of them, standing watch over a boxed Cabbage Patch Kids doll. She hoped to nab the $9 item for her 15-month-old daughter Mackensie because “it’s smushy,” she said.

   The former middle-school English teacher, who was laid off in June, saved $550 of her unemployment checks for Christmas shopping.

   “You’ll never know when you go,” she said. “It’s really bad, and just really slow.”

   But Willison had been out shopping for hours, starting at 4:30 p.m. on Thanksgiving Day at K-Mart, before detouring home for dinner. She then struck out for the Coach factory outlet in Ontario at 10 p.m., where she picked up a $330 red purse. Next was the line at Toys R Us, which she abandoned at 1:30 a.m. for the Wal-Mart queue.

   “No guts, no glory,” explained her partner in crime, mother-in-law Carol Garnett, 57, of Covina.
6. avobserver November 27, 2009 at 11:22 pm

   As languished sheeple flock to their nearest shopping malls (love AZDavidPhx’s photo work) on this beautiful black Friday, the legs that support their false hopes are getting wobbly. For those who confuse stock/commodity bear market rally with a genuine economic recovery may get their little surprise not too long down the road … Here is a wonderful article from Barrons this morning titled “Dubai Debt Woes May Mark End of Risk Trade”.
   ————————————————–
   THE IMPACT OF THE UPHEAVALS in Dubai extends far beyond the middle eastern emirate. Indeed, it may be the beginning of the end of the global risk trade, if it isn’t over already.
   While U.S. markets were closed Thursday for Thanksgiving, bourses abroad plunged after the government of Dubai asked to extend payments on the massive debt taken on by Dubai World, the government’s flagship corporate entity.
   More importantly, the currency markets have shown unmistakable symptoms of a flight from risk. While the dollar edged higher against most currencies, the yen soared.
   ……………………………….
   If the debt standstill by the emirate were the only sign of rising risk in global markets it could be overlooked. But it is no aberration. Earlier this week, the Chinese government reportedly sought to have its banks to raise additional capital, a move that effectively reins in credit for China, the main engine that is pulling the global economy out of recession.Even sovereign debt securities — the bunker to which skittish investors traditionally hide — have come under pressure.The cost to insure Japanese government bonds has jumped in recent weeks amidst growing concerns that nation’s debt burden had become insurmountable. Similarly, Greek government bond prices plunged and their yields soared in reaction to that nation’s growing economic crisis. In theory, as a member of the eurozone, Greece’s government debt should trade near parity to that of Germany, Europe’s largest economy. But the risk premium on Greece’s government debt has widened since riots broke out over in Athens in late summer over the worsening decline in the Greek economy.
   ………..with liquidity shut off from the real economy, it has flowed into asset markets and into the so-called carry trade — borrowing at the near-zero interest rate resulting from the Fed’s federal-funds target of 0-0.25% to invest in anything else that provides a higher return. And with the dollar losing value steadily against foreign currencies, it has literally paid to borrow to invest in anything else, with the key exception of the Japanese yen. Since it became cheaper to borrow in dollars than yen, greenbacks have become the key funding currency for carry trades.
   …………….
   But those trillions have not cured the underlying debt deflation at the root of the economic crisis. In past cycles, the reliquefication by central banks could be counted on to pump-prime the economy. Borrowing and lending would resume after having been restrained by tight monetary policy, and a new cycle would start.
   After the bursting of the debt bubble, the process isn’t working. It may have stoked a speculative binge in commodities, currencies and risky securities, but the real economy continues to labor.
   As it does, grandiose projects such as Dubai World collapse under the weight of their huge debts. Risk, previously suppressed successfully by policy actions, begins to increase.
   That, in turn, forces the curtailment of risk positions, from hedge funds to Wall Street proprietary trading desks. Hedging costs rise, forcing further reductions of positions in a vicious circle. As year-end approaches, the willingness to hold risk positions is reduced still further, exacerbating the process.
   …………………..
   It appears the end game for this market phase has begun.
   1. Woodbury Renter November 29, 2009 at 9:53 am

      Very insightful observation. Think about how Goldman has made billions in profit this year. They produce nothing and only a fraction of this revenue comes from client engagements. The vast majority is pure trading profit – money conjured from thin air through leverage and favorable government interference in markets. All of these schemes can turn on a dime and cause massive trading profits. Of course by then the traders will have cashed their huge bonus cheques.
7. tonye November 27, 2009 at 11:28 pm

   Funny about Steely Dan. That song has been going through my head all week. But, I’ve always thought that the “Black Friday” they meant was Oct 25th 1929 ( the second day of the Stock Crash of ’29).

   I mean the lyrics all make sense:

   Grey men jumping from tall windows.
   Taking all the money you’re owned and cashing out.
   Taking off before the rest.

   I’ve always wondered why anyone with a sane mind would appropriate such a derogatory term to a shopping day that is supposed to be good for retailers.
   1. cara November 27, 2009 at 11:39 pm

      It’s the day they go from being in the red to in the black.

      Just guessing.
      1. tonye November 28, 2009 at 12:35 am

         I understand that description… it’s the appropriation of a name with dismal -dire indeed- economic connotations for a day that is supposed to be a harbinger of good news.

         Imagine if Toyota were to have a “December 7th” sale.
8. newbie2008 November 28, 2009 at 12:38 am

   Was a the District on Wed night. Lots of cars and people — parking lot was 85% capacity, but not much buying for my informal bag survey.

   Maybe better today.

   The decade’s economy has been built up of a “service economy” model and new debt refinancing old debt. Now the mantra is to blame China for having a low cost manufacturing based economy for the US’s debt. The USA needs to get kick the debt habit and produce something other than hot air from polictical hacks, Hollywood and get back to manufacturing real goods (not virtual revenues and virtual profits).

   RE bubble is a legal Ponzi scheme because actual goods are traded. Even if house prices go up, you need to put more money into your trade-up house (unless you cash out and move out of the area. Bernie is a newbie compare to WS and the Feds with their Ponzi schemes. Be thankful that the streets are not in anarchy.

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