32 thoughts on “Kick in the …”

1. Freetrader November 4, 2009 at 2:55 pm

   The development is reasonably nice for rental condos, but living there you truly will experience the ‘corporate lifestyle’; since there are nothing but business parks and the airport nearby, and few stores or amenities.

   But buried in the fine print is that whopping HOA fee: $395 per month! That knocks about $50k off the price right there. Add property taxes of $3,000 per year and cost of ownership is getting to about 50% of the potential rental income (a place like this should rent for, what, $1500/mo.?).
   1. rkp November 4, 2009 at 7:59 pm

      I think rent would be more like 1800 to 2000. My IAC rental was 2000 for 950 sq ft. I saw these units before I rented with IAC and I liked it a lot. The higher ceilings make it seem bigger and proximity to airport is a big plus. With todays low interest rates, this looks to be a positive cashflow property.
      1. IrvineRenter November 4, 2009 at 8:27 pm

         When I computed the cost of ownership for this post, I don’t think I caught the higher HOA. I used $100 instead of $395, so the true cost of ownership is closer to $1,500. I imagine this would rent for $1,800, and at this asking price, it is cashflow positive.
         1. Jwinston2 November 4, 2009 at 9:08 pm

            $1,800? You can get a 2br/2B next to the ocean, Dana Point, right now for that price. Why would anyone pay $1800 for this?
            1. Walter November 4, 2009 at 9:34 pm

               Simple, UCI and lots of jobs are not in Dana Point.
            2. thrifty November 4, 2009 at 9:46 pm

               You’re right. They are not. But the broader point is that dropping rents in adjacent areas will eventually bring about the same in Irvine. It’ll just take time – of which there is an unlimited amount.
            3. rkp November 4, 2009 at 11:14 pm

               What was the Dana Point 2b going for a few years ago?
            4. tkaratz November 5, 2009 at 11:00 am

               Definitely not a college student friendly community. I’d avoid this one at all costs.

               Buying is a definite no no as they have construction defect
         2. Barren_Irvine November 5, 2009 at 4:15 am

            Right now I am renting a 3 bed 2.5 bath 1600 sq.ft apartment with a garage in west park for $2200. I don’t think you can beat that.
            1. Chris November 5, 2009 at 8:47 am

               Apartment? It’s a bit high.

               You can probably get that with SFH nowadays.
      2. bltserv November 4, 2009 at 9:44 pm

         Did you just step off the wayback machine ?
         Its not 2006 anymore.
         Rents are in the tank. Too much supply.
         I am paying $ 1600.00 for a nicer place with attached single car garage IAC in Quail Hill.

         With that HOA the only thing thats “positive” is your going to lose money trying to rent this thing out if you buy it.
         1. rkp November 4, 2009 at 11:13 pm

            I moved from Irvine to SM a year ago so my numbers are dated. I just looked at IR2’s lease spreadsheet and 0 1 2 bedrooms under 1100 sq ft avg $1.68 per sq ft in Sept (figured closest comps) which puts this close to $1600. I take back my $1800-2000 estimate and put this around $1600. Man that is cheap – my SM 2b/2b is $2500!!!
            1. Contango November 4, 2009 at 11:47 pm

               My friend who lives in Irvine is paying about $1650 for an apartment the same size, and I am paying 1330 in aliso viejo for the same size apartment.

               I think it would rent quick for 1500 to 1600. Anything more than $1800 a potential renter would weigh their opportunity cost. Even if you did rent it at a premium cost the owner would have to account for a greater percentage of vacancy in the long term.
2. Dirk November 4, 2009 at 6:07 pm

   So when is the Uni High 40th Anniversary Edition coming out… the big party is Nov 7th.

   http://www.uhs40.com/
   1. brea November 5, 2009 at 7:40 am

      Thanks for the info. I am class of 76. I could not beleave 40 years when I first saw it, but then I did some math. I wonder how many readers are original settlers from the early 70’s. Irvine High’s first graduating class was 79, so everyone went to Uni in the beginning. In the very beginning they were bussed to Mission Viejo High and using some of their classrooms.

      Thanks
3. thrifty November 4, 2009 at 8:40 pm

   Today’s WSJ has an article with the following interesting observation:
   the International Monetary Fund cited “a risk” that surging Hong Kong asset prices are being driven by a flood of capital “divorced from fundamental forces of supply and demand.”

   Behind the trend are measures such as cutting interest rates and pumping money into the financial system, which have left parts of the world awash in cash and at risk of bubbles, or run-ups in asset prices beyond what economic fundamentals suggest are reasonable.

   Nice thumbnail sketch of where the U.S. is as well. I’d be very careful making assumptions about the direction of rents which are closely tied to property values. I think there are years of pain to go.
   1. newbie2008 November 5, 2009 at 5:09 am

      N. Roubin has an assessment on the reasons for the rising prices and on the bubbles BO and the Feds are making. He predicting a possble burst in 6M to a year if they don’t get their act together.

      IMHO: Most of the country has adjust to more reasonable Price to Income, so CA house prices will be hit hard.
   2. AZDavidPhx November 5, 2009 at 5:24 am

      I think there are years of pain to go.

      Irvine is not going to escape this. Right now everyone is pretending that it is all getting better.

      The government is announcing Mission Accomplished : Recession Is Over.

      Of course we all know that it is not over.

      Notice how all of your friends are still out of work?

      Notice how low interest are?

      Notice how the government is trying to trick people into throwing their money away in a market that (they know) is declining?

      Irvine reminds me of the “upper middle class” who are currently pretending that they have felt the pain and optimistic that it only gets better from here.

      Kick back and get ready for the fireworks show of exploding ARMs next year. The party is just getting started out in your neck of the woods.
      1. newbie2008 November 5, 2009 at 7:30 am

         Recession is over for WS’s investment banks. Record bonus for some.
         Too bad Main Street will be at record unemployment.
         With record unemployment, WS can squeeze the working man for the lowest wages and highest output. Also many people that should be hourly are on salary, so no overtime for 50 to 60 hour per week.
4. Kelja November 4, 2009 at 10:21 pm

   Oh, Obi Wan —

   Love the zen-like phrase:

   “Capitulation is painful; it is subordinating your will to the Will of the Market; it is the collapse of entitlement; it is the abandonment of dreams.”
5. rkp November 4, 2009 at 11:24 pm

   I wish redfin would give more detail on the closed sales like sq ft and b/b. All the info is there when the listing is active…why hide it as soon as the listing is closed?

   Looks like there were 6 sales in the last 6 months:
   #305 – $405K
   #104 – $365K
   #119 – $360K
   #104 – $340K
   #311 – $270K
   #208 – $254K

   Really hard to estimate what this will close at without knowing the sq ft of the previous sales.
   1. Geotpf November 5, 2009 at 12:02 am

      I think Redfin takes those items from the listing when it is active but from public records when there is no active listing, and the public records for much of Irvine (especially for condos) are lacking, to say the least. This is less of a problem in most other cities.

      I think the specific reason for this is due to MLS rules; Redfin can’t share that info after the listing is no longer active, just like they delete asking prices after the listing is closed. Other websites which get MLS data indirectly, such as Zillow, may have better info.
6. AZDavidPhx November 5, 2009 at 2:35 am

   IrvineRenter –

   The photo of the dog being kicked in the mouth was clearly over the line. It is one thing when it is just a cartoon, but using photos of real dogs is taking it to a whole new level.

   It is obvious that you are offending your canine readers (myself included).

   How can a dog hater be trusted, I ask you.

   Please cease and desist at once before the children see it.
   1. IrvineRenter November 5, 2009 at 3:37 am

      When I first saw that image, I laughed so hard I got tears in my eyes. The wide-eyed expression, and the carefully placed paw to the jaw that releases a shower of dog slobber… I am laughing to myself even recounting it…
      1. Sue in Irvine November 5, 2009 at 3:51 am

         Kitty takes on a pit bull.
         LOL 😆
   2. camsavem November 5, 2009 at 4:14 am

      Well, after selling my house in 2001 and being priced out for 8 years, I am finally giving up the ghost. My kids are almost done with high school so there is really nothing more holding me in the OC.

      I will be taking the money I have saved and moving out of this mis managed over priced state. Don’t get me wrong, I love the weather, entertainment, beaches etc., but not enough to pay three times as much to live here.

      I know people that have not made a mortgage payment in over 16 months and are still in their house. It is going to be a long drawn out affair with no end in sight. It’s not just the property values it is also the lack of our states leaders to do what is neccessary to make California affordable….Taxes will keep rising and services will get worse and worse.

      I am closing my business here and moving to Arizona sometime in the next year. I have waited over three years for things to get better or to even see them moving in the right direction, but it’s not happening, everyone just keeps kicking the can down the street until it is hopefully someone elses problem.

      I am sure I am not the only one thinking this way and finally capitulating.

      So David, you may have a new neighbor soon….So where isthe best place to get the Escalade detailed and buy granite? LOL
      1. thrifty November 5, 2009 at 4:33 am

         You’ve deliberated for some time. I know nothing about income, sales and property taxes, insurance, etc in Arizona. Am curious to know if you considered other states and why they were eliminated?
         Good luck!
      2. AZDavidPhx November 5, 2009 at 4:55 am

         You will like Scottsdale (mid to north – no South).

         There are some nice places in my neighborhood down to about 400K now. If I saw myself in AZ 10 years from now, I might be getting ready to grab one – but for now I am going to keep saving.

         I see Escalades on the road going by my apartment daily, you will love it. Just enough pretenders to make Californians feel right at home!

         Just don’t be in desperate need of a job. The economy is very shaky out here since the majority of our economy is based upon golfing tourism and other various forms of wasteful spending which is down now.
   3. Chris November 5, 2009 at 10:05 am

      The cat lovers are loving it every single second 🙂
7. LC November 5, 2009 at 4:39 am

   “since there are nothing but business parks” — correction: nothing but half empty business parks nearby.
8. newbie2008 November 5, 2009 at 5:00 am

   My coworkers are renting in that area. One has a 1bd from $1500 and the other 2bd for $1600. It looks as if the later arriving tenants go a lower rent. Another just rented in CDM/NB for $1600 for a new lux. 1bd (super nice place).

   Even it you get rent parity, an increase in interest rate will cause the price of the unit to drop. So there can be actual depreciation to consider in the buy/no buy decision.

   The Trend link showed Irvine unemployment going up last month and lots more in FC process. Is there a trend map for total unemployed (including discouraged workers)?
9. pi1ot November 5, 2009 at 8:05 am

   I’m renting a 2br/2ba w/ attached 2 car, 1700 sq ft, condo in Quail Hill, $2200/mo.

   Whoever said they’re paying $1800-$2k for 965 sq ft never bothered to check comps before renting.

   I’ve been paying this rent since early 2007.

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