Sometimes neighboring properties can set their own pricing standards and comp themselves into believing their own fantasy pricing;
Greed on Display.
Asking Price: $698,000
Address: 2 Del Italia Irvine, CA 92614
{book6}
In the streets there’s no wrong and no right
so forget all that you see
It’s not reality
It’s just a fantasy
Fantasy — Aldo Nova
People’s fantasies about their property’s value can be contagious. A few weeks ago, I profiled The Crooked House, Del Italia, Westpark, Irvine. The owner of the house was kind enough to stop by and join in the comments. At $679,900, we all thought his property was a bit overpriced, but he later lowered his price to $649,000 and is now in escrow.
It appears that his neighbor wanted to cash in a lottery ticket of their own, so today we have 2 Del Italia being offered for $698,000 after the flipper paid $552,000 about a month ago. Good luck with that.
Apparently the $552,000 foreclosure did not phase the buyer at 4 Del Italia. Either the comp was not considered for financing, or the buyer stepped up with cash. A $649,000 price is doing very well for them.
Can the flipper get $50,000 more?
It doesn’t seem likely that a bank is going to loan 80% of $698,000 to make the deal happen, so a buyer is probably going to need to put 30% or more down to get the property. Since many have speculated that foreign cash buyers are buying all the inventory, perhaps this flipper is not living in a fantasy world after all. Will someone pay his price for this little piece of Irvine?
The kool aid is still flowing.
Asking Price: $698,000
Income Requirement: $174,500
Downpayment Needed: $139,600
Purchase Price: $552,000
Purchase Date: 6/18/2009
Address: 2 Del Italia Irvine, CA 92614
Beds: | 3 |
Baths: | 3 |
Sq. Ft.: | 1,762 |
$/Sq. Ft.: | $396 |
Lot Size: | 5,000
Sq. Ft. |
Property Type: | Single Family Residence |
Style: | Contemporary/Modern |
Stories: | 2 |
Year Built: | 1987 |
Community: | Westpark |
County: | Orange |
MLS#: | P697185 |
Source: | SoCalMLS |
Status: | Active |
On Redfin: | 2 days |
living room, Open floor plan, Excellent property condition, Large back
yard. Additional parking space for guest, Cul-De-Sac end private house.
Super Clean & Bright and Excellent School District. Spacious
Kitchen space and Walking distance to Community Pool&Spa. Must See.
Move in Condition NOW.
L@@K A Must SEE. Must SEE. L@@K
Must See.
Move in Condition NOW. I will wait until LATER.
The previous owner of this property paid $750,000 on 8/19/2005. She used a $600,000 first mortgage, a $150,000 second mortgage, and a $0 downpayment.
Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 04/16/2009
Document Type: Notice of Sale (aka Notice of Trustee’s Sale)
Document #: 2009000186164
Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 01/13/2009
Document Type: Notice of Default
Document #: 2009000013961
The lender lost about $231,120 at the time of sale.
The property was purchased by its current flipper on 6/18/2009. If it sells for its current asking price, and if a 6% commission is paid, the total gain to the flipper will be $104,120.
Will this flip succeed? or it is just a fantasy?
{book2}
Since the title of today’s post was “Fantasy,” I wanted to share with you some excellent fantasy writing on TV. I was looking for a show I could watch with my son, and what I found got me hooked. I have always been a science fiction fan (I know way too much about Star Trek), and I recently discovered the Star Wars Clone Wars cartoon series. George Lucas has created these cartoons set in the time period of the Clone Wars between the second and third Star Wars movies (actually the 5th and 6th movies, but that is another story). Lucas does a very good job; I particularly enjoyed Episode 1: Ambush and Episode 10: The Lair of General Grevious.
So, wait a second, they cleaned it? And they want 100,000 for a cleaning project?
Does in escrow mean under contract, or has it closed? In either case congrats Property Owner.
Thanks Cara. Our home is under contract and will close at the end of the month. There was FCB money involved in the deal. In the several offers we received, it seemed like FCB money was a part of all of them (very large down payments) except one which looked like an FHA (less than 15% down).
The first house to start this round of selling in our neighborhood was 3 Del Roma. The family there was nice. If what they told me they got for the house is true, they made out like bandits. Their contract price is what influenced us to have our initial asking price. Initially we were going to price at $649K until we heard what they sold at. After 3 Del Roma, we put our house on the market. Then 2 Del Italia went on the market and now 25 Del Perlatto is on the market. 25 DP are a very nice family that has outgrown their space as well (from DINKS to 2 kids).
FCB? foreign cash buyer?
Anyway congrats, how’s the new house search going, or is that already done?
Well technically the money was wired from out of the country to escrow but the buyer has resided here for some time. So I am not sure if that is the classic definition of a FCB here.
The house hunting is frustrating. We have been outbid several times already.
Wait till after the new school year starts?
That has crossed my mind. The worry is that the crazy train will continue into the fall.
The market has become so ‘heated’ that sellers agents are starting to get attitudes if offers do not come in very close to asking. My agent actually received a tounge lashing from the sellers agent for presenting an offer 97% of asking. The agent said the seller would not even consider countering the offer and we need to present a better offer of at least asking if we want the house. They apparently are tired of buyers presenting offers too low for what they believe their house is worth.
Guess what, I scratched that house off my list.
The house has been sitting on the market for almost 80 days so far.
Just hang tight. There will be plenty more where that one came from.
Insanity.
So, do you have an interim plan? We’re sitting in a short-sale contract right now partially to insulate ourselves from the craziness. And because it was the best value in our market, i.e. the one we liked best, sigh). We’ll see if this plan works out any better. Best of luck. The craziness has to abate someday.
The realtor lists one Special Feature: “No common walls” WFT? It already says its a Single Family Residence. Is it a special feature if a SFR doesn’t share a common wall with the neighbors? I would have thought that’s a requirement.
WFT? What Frightening Trash?
A year of non-payment would add close to another $60k to the loss to the lender. Mortgages are debt instruments and their interest payments have a huge impact on their value. A 6.5% loan on $500k is worth a lot more than a 4.5% loan for the same amount. Anybody in finance know what the price difference would be for either a mortgage or MBS at those different coupon rates?
Likewise, all the loans being written now, at record low rates will be worth less when interest rates inevitably rise. You’ll have little to no refinancing because rates are higher and appraisals lower. Their collateral risk is going down, but their exposure to interest rate risk is huge. I think this is a pretty easy risk to understand, and wonder if banks are just packaging the loans and selling them off in bonds – transferring the risk, or are keeping the loans on the books – holding the risk.
I basically agree what you said , but could we get a figure clearly showing the relationship between housing price and morgage rate for several years(1980~2008)?
In the short term, on the contrary, most people
tend to think low interest rate increases their affordability.
Try looking here
1yr CD ~ 1%, 30yr FRM 5.5%, net interest profit for a deposit funded mortgage, held by the bank of 4.5%. CD rates go to 5%, and net profit drops to 0.5%. Say a bank has $100B in deposits funding that amount of FRM’s. 4.5% interest rate profit -> $4.5Bln profit, while the drop to 0.5% IRP will shave $4B off profits. A bank holding 5X that number could see profits shaved by $20B, or more than nearly any bank’s profits!
If this is the way banks are going to ‘earn their way out of the crisis’, we’ve got trouble ahead.
The value of the mortgage and the value of the home are not necessarily related. There is significant interest rate risk held by the issuer or buyer of fixed-rate mortgages at these historic low rates.
Having problems leaving a comment.
Obviously that worked.
If you haven’t seen it, check out HGTV’s Real Estate Intervention show. It’s hilarious watching these homeowners get smacked in the face with reality when the expert shows them how not-special their house really is.
Definitely hilarious. I love how one spouse or the other is the defensive one, searching in vain for ways to differentiate their house from the comp (“well, ours has crown molding, so that totally justifies the $20,000 price difference”). None of the people on the show seem to follow his advice either, but they end up selling at or below the price he recommends, after keeping the house on the market an additional 2-3 months.
That crown molding lady was hilarious. Never mind that the comp’s master bedroom was twice the size of hers. “But we have crown molding.”
I’ve been on a crown molding kick lately. It’s a pet peeve of mine, when they point out how something has (or doesn’t have) crown molding. Those piece of crap shutters are the same thing.
They are functionally worthless, only aesthetically pleasing when placed appropriately. A 900 sq ft apartment does not need crown molding.
Besides, exactly how much does it cost to stick some wood to the corner of the ceiling? Not bloody much. If you like crown molding, just add it.
I saw a foreclosure judgement in SoFL and then took a couple minutes to check the loan. In July 2007: 80% option-arm 1st, 10% heloc 2nd. Put 10% in, but didn’t make many payments. Wamu both, and for a 2nd home/rental/flip. How much of this wamu originated loss will JPM eat, and how much will we eat? How was a system where these loans were not out of the ordinary considered stable? What made some markets different so that these most toxic loans are so concentrated?
Just curious, when did the foreclosure sale occur? Sometime in ’08? Trying to figure out how much free rent this guy (or girl) got out of the deal.
Judgement was this past week, sale scheduled for Dec. Judgement listed unpaid interest from June 2008. 1st loan was an option-arm, so there’s no way to tell if it’s interest balooning the principal, or if they stopped paying in June or if they just lowered their pick-a-payment.
“Judgement was this past week, sale scheduled for Dec.”
That’s starting to happen quite a bit. Usually, the sales are 30-45 days after the judgment. Pushing it off till December is quite a nice bonus for the homeowner.
It’s a 2nd home, so they shouldn’t even care. There should be some accelerated FC process when the defaulter doesn’t live there.
Dan: If my understanding is correct, Florida is a judicial-only foreclosure state, unlike California and some others. As a practical matter, how is this affecting the time frame of an eventual foreclosure from NOD to trustee sale compared to non-judicial foreclosure states? Are judges overwhelmed indefinitely at this point?
And does this mean that virtually every individual undergoing foreclosure needs an attorney; i.e., atty’s fees will usually be less than potential losses without legal representation?
Actually I believe it was their 4th home bought in a year’s time.
Do the banks keep paying the property taxes for these failed properties or do CA taxpayers have to suck it up?
Sorry if this has been covered already. But I just see a lot of businesses being treated like Welfare Queens – with the burden being shifted to the rest of us all the time.
I like to know the answer too. Do banks get penalized for holding onto houses indefinitely to control the slide? Taxes or fees or whatever?
Well, I dont know about all cases, but my mother just closed on a house in San Diego. It was an REO, and the bank paid all property taxes for the year, paid _every_ cent of the closing costs, but my mother put 50% down. She wasn’t even the highest offer, but the higher offers were either FHA or less down, so they went with her.
-GM
I believe property taxes take the first position upon the foreclosure sale, so back taxes are paid first, then the 1st lien holder, etc…
As long as the bank owns it, they pay property taxes/keep it current.
Usually on a flip like this, the seller would at least replace the appliances (typically with low end GE stainless appliances). I see a black stove, a white range hood, and a white refrigerator from 1993. And for that, you are supposed to pay 10% more than comps? I don’t think so.
Post from Calculated Risk: Farmland Values Decline
There is a great chart of farm values going back to the 1960s. You can clearly see a bubble where prices went up around 400% in 8 years and then cut in half in 6 years. The peak-to-peak cycle was 20 years, and it took 14 years after it bottomed as prices put in an “L” shaped recovery.
This is a fantastic case study in real estate market bubbles. This isn’t the first time.
Farmland is one of the dark horse bets of the future. Fertilizer has huge fossil-fuel inputs, which might cut its use, making farmland less productive per acre, and hence much more valuable over the next 30 years. It could be a real jackpot investment – food never goes out of style.
After prices unwind to sanity levels, I’ll be sorely tempted to bite.
A counter interpretation is that our country exports food because our large scale fossil fuel methods are more efficient than labor intensive third world countries. Increasing our costs puts us at a less competitive position and they have room to increase their production and reduce imports, squeezing US farmers.
“making farmland less productive per acre, and hence much more valuable over the next 30 years.”
I think you have your economics mixed up. Less productive is less valuable. Otherwise, desert would be the most valuable cropland.
I concur on the Star Wars cartoon. Imo, another good show for the kids and adults beside them is Avatar: The Last Airbender. You should start with the first season (on DVD, Netflix, etc.) as the storyline builds from the beginning.
Eh if you like cartoons I suggest some anime.
Start off get Ninja Scroll and watch it in it’s original language of course.
I am not sure that Ninja Scroll would be appropriate for children. I own the dubbed and the subtitled version, and was amused at the differences in translation.
Vampire Hunter D is another good one imo.
Let me just say thank you for selecting Aldo Nova’s Fantasy and not Maria Carey’s Fantasy song. By doing so you’ve saved my brain from short-circuiting this week.
That Aldo Nova song reminds me of spending a summer afternoon on my uncle’s boat waterskiing. I think it was 1982.
The Recession America Needed
“The cause of the recession is often blamed on financial firms that took astonishingly large risks with the goal of multiplying their earnings at unprecedented levels and consumers who were willing to aggressively borrow against inflated home values that were not sustainable. Government policies might have prevented this if regulators could have looked ahead in 2005 and seen the danger in financial firms trading in exotic financial instruments and offering homeowners loans based on rapidly rising home prices that, in some cases, were doubling every three or four years. Prescience, born of powerful deductive skills, could have caused regulators to sound alarm bells, but the collapse of the over-leveraged system was seen by very few experts until it was on top of the economy and in the process of ruining it.”
On p1 the author misses a crucial point when they say ‘overly tight regulation’ could ‘perhaps destroy the system’ of credit allocation. That system would have actually been destroyed by itself had bank bailouts not occurred.
Where regulation is required is where bailouts or government insurance programs will happen. FDIC institutions need to be tightly controlled because of the guarantee.
Too-big-to-fail institutions need to be addressed differently. We can
(1) let them fail
(2) bail them out haphazardly & possibly multiple times
(3) break them into ‘allowable to fail’ sized units
(4) regulate them differently than atf sized bankes.
I dont’ think the folks at AIG took excessive risks because they thought the corporation would get a govt bailout. They wouldn’t be on the hook for corporate losses to begin with! They either felt they weren’t taking risks, or the reward today outweighed any potential risk that might come up tomorrow.
We’re already doing #2
Is that the best way to do it? I’d rather not repeat #2, and if it takes tighter regulation, so be it. Think of the costs of this banking/housing crisis and weigh it against negatives of increased regulation. I don’t see the scales tipping towards the same or a lower level of regulation.
“The government does not need to tell banks something that shareholders are certain to say with great force.”
Is that guy kidding? What did LEH, BS, ML shareholders say regarding leverage? It’s real easy to compute leverage total assets/net assets. You can find that at finance.google.com.
China stimulates its economy by buying US debt. It could be govt, agency, or bank debt, or even equities or real estate. Buying dollars with Yuan limits the increase in relative value of the Yuan. Chinese goods are cheaper in the US than they would be otherwise. This helps their export sector.
A danger could exist where China sells its dollars, buys Euros, and primes Europe as its next export market. Virtually all US imports would rise in price, which helps domestic manufacturers, but hurts retailers counting on cheap low-margin imports.
I think someone has done a lot of work on China, and concluded that only the U.S. has a big enough market (and can generate enough debt) to adsorb Chinese extra cash. Sorry I can’t remember who, but I got the link from Paul Krugman’s blog. So probably we and China are stuck with each other, and Europe is not a contender.
“The hundreds of thousands of workers who have been fired…may not be able to find permanent unemployment.”??? ‘permanent UNemployment?
Has newswek fired all its editors?
It is difficult to understand the rationality of buyer and sellers in Irvine. Last month a flip on Montelegro was purchased at 620k and flipped in one month to list at $799. It was sold within a week. 2 weeks ago another house was listed on the same street for 689k, it was sold in 3 days.
Similarly 4 homes in northwood on lewis, carson and carver, were all sold within days of listing. Infact just today a house on freemont, listed for 675k went into backup within 3 days.
All valuation engines appraise these properties at least 5-10% below list price but people are buying, inventories are low. Banks will bleed the market slowly to make the most. Kool aid flows freely.
Are prices still crazy…i think so. Why are people snapping up houses in Irvine, i dont know… The houses that are not selling are the short sales where banks are not budging from their expectations or overly priced homes like the one reviewed today. I will probably end up buying a better priced home in Aliso Viejo or Ladera Ranch.
Essentially I think we are seeing the “Kool-aid” echo. The frequecy of the quick sales at above asking and high cash offers encourages even more bidding up in a panic also homes (I feel) are listing more even in areas that aren’t prime due to this effect. We will probably see this happen through October since the end of the free $8K for first time buyers is the end of November. The question is, will they extend the free money and keep interest rates low through to next year?
Westpark is outta control. 1150 sq ft uglies like 8 Andissa and 33 Finisterra selling at $600,000 and up; 25 Del Perlatto is listed at $549 a sq ft; I heard that 47 Del Carlo is going into escrow at all cash above the $575,000 asking price. Just ridiculous.
Maybe it has to do with school starting in one month. Westpark students go to University High. Plus the Irvine school district verified home addresses in the spring for the 2009-10 school year. Maybe they didn’t live in the Uni area, but now have to.
In the long run i feel that westpark homes in that area will be assigned to Woodbridge High. Everything after 405 should be University High.
all cash offer for 47 Del Carlo..wow. Where do people get this sort of money from and why buy something like 47 del carlo when you have so much money…
I think I should say Westpark students on that side of Barranca go to Uni. I’m pretty sure the other side of Barranca goes to Woodbridge. Nothing wrong with WHS. My daugher went there and then graduated from UCLA.
Well, in my neck of the woods the kids go to Uni and then UCI.
The other side of barranca(oak creek) does go to WHS, I have nothing against any school in Irvine. All are equally good. Most are hyped and will continue to be hyped.
My feeling was that woodbridge has an older population, hence over a period of time IUSD will have to change the areas supported by WHS.
I was told that westpark has a premium because the assigned school is Uni High and i was trying to understand why…i realize that it is a waste of time to figure these things because there are so many things in Irvine that dont make sense 🙂
Well a 2500 sf condo REO. The for sale sign was up for about a month, then the sign when down without a sold, under contract, etc.
I went by and asked the workmen what was going on. It looks like almost a large remodeling and they been at it for 2 weeks and still going. It’s under escrow now. So it looks like the bank with only a $1000 under asking made big concessions in repairing the the property while it under escrow.
The sale with only $1000 under asking looks like a hot market, but with more than 2 weeks of a remodeling crew, the sale is going to cost the bank another pretty penny.
It the remodeling under the bank’s dime the new way to keep prices high? BTW the property was actually stucturally okay during the showing, just not my taste. Remodeling by bank to suit the new owner taste?
Another location in North Korea: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090801/ap_on_re_us/us_lonely_highrise
Hey IR, Which email address do I use if I wanted to ask you something privately?
Besides email, you may also send a private message to IR. Follow this link and click on “PM”:
https://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/member/6/
That takes you to the private message feature through the forums. I hope this helps.
Property Owner’s comment about most buyers bidding on his house being FCB’s is probably not an isolated case. I have heard anecdotal tales like that as well. When a 1700 SF house is still selling for over $600K you begin to wonder whether this price level can be supported by local median income buyers – even with 5% mortgage rate. And we all know the lending standard has become much tighter. FCB’s do not face the same income and credit constraints and their buying motives could be quite different from local buyers.
While the US housing bubble has been deflating for the last 2 years, similar bubbles in other parts of the world are still alive and expanding. Chinese government, for instance, is creating a RE bubble (by forcing their state run banks lend out money like there is no tomorrow) that in many respects dwarfs the one we just had in the US. Some large coastal cities saw apartment price went up 20% in a couple of months. Too much easy money is being made as a result of liquidity pumping all over the world. I won’t be surprised if some of these easy profits find their way into Irvine housing market. For many FCB’s all they need to hear is that Irvine has “great schools, nice weather, and a large Asian community” (Yes, I do believe a large number of FCB’s in Irvine are Asians) to jump in with both feet.
The only way to scare away FCB’s is a massive dumping of shadow inventory by lenders – not very likely event in the near term. IMHO foreign cash will keep Irvine market at artificially high level for quite some time.
Intended constructively IR, I love this blog, it’s ‘faze’ rather than ‘phase’.
(An innocent mistake likely brought on by all those recent ‘stunning’ images of Captain Kirk).
That is true! Kool-Aid is still flowing…
Not in this part of the world (The good old U.S. Of A.) but in the other parts.
A few friends of mine are leading several group of wealthy individuals from Asia on real estate tours of Southern Cal., Arizona, Nevada.
I’m sure they’ll take serious look at Irvine.
In fact, I would not be surprised if most if not all of the recent R.E. transactions in Irvine are all-cash or 30%-90% downpayment transactions.
They are also interested in the $500K for greencard program.
That’s how your money goes to work, for them. It’s the money you spent to buy cheap import stuffs.
It’s the money from corporations shifting their operations offshore.
The good old U. S. Of A. of ours is no more!
Let’s welcome our foreign masters!
We heard the same mantra of Asia buying the US in the 80ies when the Japanese started buying US real estate (was it Rockefeller center?) and companies at inflated prices. The same is the case here. Let’s use this bear rally to sell this overpriced stuff to the FCBs and buy it back in a few years for half the price. Only because you have money and are a foreign buyer doesn’t mean that you are a smart investor in the SoCal real estate market!
Not all asian buyer are FCBs, both my wife and I are highly educated professionals, we make twice as much as Irvine median, we have about $300k cash sitting in bank’s saving accounts, yes, we came from China, but that was not where the money came from and it was more than ten years ago, our money was accumulated through years of saving and investing here in US, every single penny is after-tax. Some of the asian buyers might be FCBs, but I know many friends are in similar situation like us ready to buy. I would be a large-down-payment-asian-buyer if there is another 10% haircut.
BTW, this is my first time to post my comment, though I have been reading this blog for quite a while, I would like to take this opportunity to thank IR for his great work keeping this blog, it is alway my first thing to read every morning.
Thanks for saying all that. I know a lot of non-recent immigrants in the same boat, ready to buy with money they’ve carefully saved after YEARS of education, work, and saving. Too bad so many commentators out there are willing to jump on the racist bandwagon (I’ve never seen complaints about rich Russians or Eurotrash buying up all the goodies, e.g.). But that seems to be par for the course in tricky economic times. It was anti-Japan in the 1980s, and it’s anti-China now. Of course it’s anti-Mexican all the time. Alas.
I never said all Asian buyers are FCB’s. What I said was that a large number of FCBs in Irvine seem to be Asian buyers. Irvine seems to attract foreign cash buyers because of its good public schools and large Asian community.
First generation immigrants who live and work in the States and have large savings are not FCBs. They are part of the local economy. If Irvine were insulated from outside world the residential RE price would be determined solely by local demand, which is based on income, employment rate and rental market. But if you add FCBs to the mix the aggregate demand expands and pushes the equilibrium to a higher level.
I’m Asian-American, been here for years and Caucasions are still amazed that I speak English without an accent…I think the Majority is always jealous or any minority that wants to improve themselves.
Heaven forbid that you save instead of buying season tickets for the Angels or Ducks or maxing out your credit for Louis Vuitton bag or that Seedoo or Extra Large RV…or dinners and lunches at Claim Jumpers with dessert of course.
Hell hath no fury……..as a jealous upset “American” in my opinion.
Sorry if I sound racist, but I’m sick of the ching chong jokes and the pulling of the eyes insult.
Good thing I’m a citizen and I’m here to stay!
Hell, at least we are good neighbors.
We live where other Asians live because we don’t have to deal with the covert or overt racism that exists especially if you’re a male…you know your neighbors either like or hate you for you…not for the color of your skin or religion.
Plus when our kids go to school they don’t have to deal with a-hole kids taught by their parents to be racist and they have a chance for positive social interactions…Nothing like constant insults to torpedo one’s self esteem. Have you ever met a kid that was the only minority in his or her class? They seem to have ton of self esteem issues.
True Story – my daughter was the only white kid in her Irvine Montessori class – the rest were Asian. The rest of the girls teased her that she did not have black hair and eyes, and she would come home crying. After talking to the teacher (also Asian), who didn’t want to do anything, we yanked her from the school.
Asians moving to Irvine (both foreign or 1st, 2nd generation) are coming for the homogenous nature of the place and create their own racism (note the above commenter says “taught by their parents to be racist” is a blanket statement, treating people by their race and not individuals).
Actually, a lot of FOB chinese are very racist and they tend to concregate in their own neighborhoods. The end result is that there are parts of Irvine that are becoming High Priced Chinatown Ghettos. Just look at the area around Walnut and Jeffrey. They took down our favorite cheap Mexican joint.
OTOH, American Chinese are not racist (and they know how to drive) and do not build Chinatowns.
Also, I’ve noticed that taiwanese that have lived in the US for a long time are pretty cool as well.
There is a very fundamental difference between the FOB from Mainland China and the rest.