The housing ATM is closed, and pretenders must pay their bills. They must sell their houses to do it.
Asking Price: $1,089,000
Address: 8 Saintsbury Irvine, CA 92602
{book2}
The ice age is coming, the sun’s zooming in
Meltdown expected, the wheat is growing thin
Engines stop running, but I have no fear
London Calling — The Clash
The people with prime properties in Irvine certainly do not show any signs of fear; denial rules the day. These properties, many of which were purchased in 2002-2004, will ultimately end up underwater, but for now, they are asking double what they paid. Today’s featured properties are both large, single-story homes backing on to major arterials — asking over $1,000,000. WTF?
I have written many screeds on HELOC abuse and the lifestyle of pretending with borrowed money. This lifestyle has become so common and so widely accepted that few people even see it for the pretending it is. If everyone is pretending, doesn’t it take on a reality all its own?
First, I should define what I mean by pretending. Financial pretending is the process of borrowing from potential future earnings to spend today as if you make or have more money than you really do.
To see what I mean, imagine a scene at a local high-end restaurant. Two groups of people come in to eat dinner. One party is being treated by a very wealthy individual, and the other party is being treated by a pretender. At the end of the meal, the wealthy person pays the bill out of accumulated savings or current income; he incurs no liability for his consumption. The pretender pulls out a credit card and pays for the meal with a promise to make enough money to pay the credit card company later. The pretender cannot truly afford the fancy meal, and he is only able to obtain it because the credit card company accepts his veracity on the matter of future payment. What happens if the pretender’s promises are no longer believed?
The wealthy need to convince nobody of their ability to pay; they have cash. The pretenders need others to believe in their willingness and ability to make future payments in order to obtain the objects of their desire. It should be obvious who really has power and who is only pretending.
{book2}
When pretenders go on long term borrowing sprees and continue making their debt service payments, they eventually come to believe that someone, somewhere will always believe in their promise to pay in the future; borrowers believe creditors will always extend them new credit. California Personal Finance: Ponzi Style is born.
From the outside, pretenders look rich and powerful, but in reality, they are weak and dependent — their lifestyle cannot exist without some other party to give them money and power. In times of credit contraction like we are experiencing today, pretenders are exposed for what they are. As Warren Buffet noted, “You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.”
Asking Price: $1,089,000
Income Requirement: $272,250
Downpayment Needed: $217,800
Purchase Price: $531,500
Purchase Date: 10/24/2002
Address: 8 Saintsbury Irvine, CA 92602
| Beds: | 3 |
| Baths: | 3 |
| Sq. Ft.: | 2,200 |
| $/Sq. Ft.: | $495 |
| Lot Size: | 4,826
Sq. Ft. |
| Property Type: | Single Family Residence |
| Style: | Contemporary |
| Stories: | 1 |
| Year Built: | 2003 |
| Community: | Northpark |
| County: | Orange |
| MLS#: | S570974 |
| Source: | SoCalMLS |
| Status: | Active |
| On Redfin: | 80 days |
Gorgeous Rutherford one-story home! Beautiful maplewood floors and
berber carpet throughout. Spacious family room with granite-face
surround fireplace and built-in entertainment niche. Gourmet oversized
kitchen with a large granite countertop island, upgraded cabinetry and
top-line stainless steel appliance. Romantic master suite with Corian
countertop & walk-in closet with organizer. Custom paint, epoxy
coating on garage floor, custom draperies and french door.
Professionally designed front landscape with iron gates, private
backyard with ponds, custom fountains and tropical plants. Convenient
inside laundry with lots of cabinets. Association features pool, spa
and Gym.
A classic pergraniteel home.
- This property was purchased on 10/24/2002 for $531,500. The owner used a $424,950 first mortgage and a $106,550 downpayment.
- On 1/24/2004 he refinanced with a $530,000 first mortgage and took out his downpayment.
- On 9/27/2004 he opened a HELOC for $169,000.
- On 9/12/2005 he refinanced with a $817,000 Option ARM with a 1% teaser rate.
- On 10/31/2006 he refinanced with a $856,000 first mortgage.
- On 3/9/2007 he opened a HELOC for $105,000.
- Total debt is $961,000 assuming he maxed out the HELOC.
- Total mortgage equity withdrawal is $536,050 including his downpayment.
Anyone “keeping up with the Jones’s” during the bubble had some serious HELOC competition from guys like this one.
Think about what this guy has done. First, he has created a lifestyle where he gets about $80,000 a year in untaxed income to finance his lifestyle. The housing ATM is turned off, so he has doubled his debt load without doubling his wage income (unless you think his wages matched the increase in his mortgage). Now he has to learn to live without that extra $80,000 a year in spending money, AND he has to pay back the loan with a much larger percentage of his income.
Are you surprised that he might want to sell and eliminate that debt? You shouldn’t be. He and everyone like him selling to eliminate their debts is what is going to crash high end prices.
Asking Price: $1,199,000
Income Requirement: $299,750
Downpayment Needed: $239,800
Purchase Price: $612,000
Purchase Date: 10/30/2003
Address: 46 Whitford Irvine, CA 92602
| Beds: | 3 |
| Baths: | 2 |
| Sq. Ft.: | 2,850 |
| $/Sq. Ft.: | $421 |
| Lot Size: | 5,662
Sq. Ft. |
| Property Type: | Single Family Residence |
| Style: | Contemporary/Modern |
| Stories: | 1 |
| Year Built: | 2002 |
| Community: | Northpark |
| County: | Orange |
| MLS#: | U9000821 |
| Source: | SoCalMLS |
| Status: | Active |
| On Redfin: | 137 days |
Exquisite single-story Triana home in the gated community of Northpark.Stunning designer upgrades include travertine flooring, venetian
plaster, beryl wood entertainment center and built-ins. Kitchen
features bull-nosed granite counters and backsplash, thermador cook
top, kitchen-aid built-in refrigerator. All bathrooms designer
appointed to include tumbled marble, travertine and slate.
Professionally designed and landscaped to include a custom fountain and
firepit. Owner spared no expense on this designer model home.
I gotta have those bull-nosed granite counters.
- This property was purchased on 10/30/2003 for $612,000. The owner used a $489,350 first mortgage and a $122,650 downpayment.
- On 9/14/2004 he opened a HELOC for $200,000.
- On 5/8/2006 he refinanced with a $791,000 first mortgage.
- On 6/26/2006 he opened a HELOC for $100,000.
- On 1/31/2007 he opened a HELOC for $225,000.
- Total property debt is $1,016,000 assuming he maxed out the HELOC (sure looks that way).
- Total mortgage equity withdrawal is $526,650.
Both of these owners took out over $500,000 in mortgage equity withdrawal and spent the money.
Purging the kool aid from California is going to be painful. Financial pretending through mortgage equity withdrawal has become deeply embeded in our culture, and it contributes to the desirability of homes and the extreme kool aid intoxication of people who live here. The fact is that lenders are not going to enable another real estate bubble here in California any time soon; they lost too much money. The housing ATM is permanently broken, and people are going to have to get used to living without it.
I have been seeing bank closures by the FDIC that cost about $5 million dollars from its insurance fund. I wonder “they had what, 30 mortgages in LA/OC?” Or may 10 in Irvine? 4 in Newport Beach?
Perhaps they had a portfolio of credit default swaps from AIG?
Only $5,000,000? That doesn’t seem like much of a loss for an insolvent bank. Something doesn’t seem right.
I’ve changed my assessment of how much farther down my area has to drop. Unfortunately, the outlook is not good.
I’ve spent a couple of hours checking out the housing market on Siesta Key, which is prime real estate in our area. Siesta Beach is a Top 5 rated beach, and the Key is home to many many high end properties. I spent the 4th at the home of a longstanding icon of the area, watching fireworks from his beautiful Gulf view home. On Monday I checked the public records for the place. Current value, according to the tax collector was ~$2.5M. The tax collector’s numbers are always low, but that’s a good estimate.
This guy was a smart businessman, and his RE investments were no different. He bought the house in 1978. Paid $125K!! The home, conservatively priced, is worth 20 times that right now, in this market. That was the first sign of worry. Even for the most high end properties (this is no mansion, but also not a hovel), that seems like a huge rate of return. Unsustainably huge. According to the inflation calculator Blueberry Pie posted yesterday, inflation from 1978 to 2009 is 236%. So if $125k in 1978 is worth $297k today, why is a $125k house worth $2.5M?
There are currently 775 properties for sale on Siesta Key. That’s a huge number for that area…shockingly huge. The Key has always fetched a premium, which is one reason it was prone to so many in-spec-ulators. Even though it is a big vacation spot, the Key is primarily made up of SFH, many of them 2,000 sqft and larger.
I can’t see our market here reaching bottom without a huge correction from CURRENT PRICE. I’ve been telling my clients for months that we have another 20% further to fall. Now, unless something extremely positive and unsuspected happens, I think the high end has 50% or more to fall. And if the high end still has a price collapse coming, the mid and low end still has further to fall. Maybe the drop from here will only be 30%, but why would anyone be willing to put their own money into a market with that large of a drop built into it?
Question, do you have a feel for how many of those 775 are 2nd/vacation homes? If they are I would assume many would have been purchased using a standard mortgage made up with HELOC money from their primary residence.
Like I said, much of the Key is SFH, with some high rise condos. I’m sure many of them were purchased as vacation homes, but for the most part these properties are family properties. We’re not looking at hundreds of 500 sqft bungalows.
Places that have a lot of investment, vacation, or other 2nd+ homes will see worse falls than more owner occupied areas. Investors will be much less hesitant to try to stick it out – a feature the ‘walk away forclosure’ study didn’t touch on. The people that actually live in an area set a better floor other investors/vacationers. You’ve seen sharper falls in hotel prices than in apartments.
For vacation/rental props – if you were cashflow positive, you’ll have less rentals and at lower rates, but could ride it out. If you were counting on appreciation, you’ll be stuck with a loss. That is the case for anywhere & any property class though.
If somebody loses their job or otherwise is in trouble financially, they will sell their vacation home long before their primary residence. I imagine there are more of such on the market (percentage-wise) than more standard properties, simply because they are a luxury that is easy to do without.
Typo – I agree investors & 2nd home owners will dump faster than fulltime residents
You are seeing the same thing I am when I look at beach properties here in OC. The runnup in prices was so obscene that only a 65% crash brings them down to reality. It is going to be very ugly.
I agree, and it sort of has to be ugly. We can’t afford the prices as they are. Look at the chart from the Glenn Beck video the other day. We’ll need a depression-like crash FROM THESE LEVELS just to get back to the historic norm.
The only other option is inflation (and a lot of it). One way or another, we’ll find our way back to historic norms.
Residents of Seal Beach, with a 1% distressed property rate… here we come with a 65% correction… brace yourselves!! Please do us a favor and run off a cliff en masse before we arrive.
You do realize that the distressed property rate is a function of the ridiculous asking prices, right? If you ask enough, even a mountain of unsustainable debt can be paid off without it being a short sale.
I suppose I should thank you for coming here and being so smug. When prices do crash where you are, everyone here will remember you and feel a warm tingle of schadenfreude….
I’m sorry a person of your talents and public charisma resorts to wishing good people ill fates, although I don’t tie my happiness with the price of my home, but in the condition of being debt-free and watching my neighbors enjoying the same reward from years of planning and frugality.
Please read my comment to Blueberry Pie, at
2009-07-08 04:10 PM, regarding the Schadenfreude condition which you shamelessly prize.
I pray you use your amazing talents for constructive social ends. And your end, to be a homeowner, however noble, does not justify your means, humoring human misery and stigmatizing victims and the unique story from each and every case that you parade here. You’ve managed to win yourself a menagerie of people addicted to reinforcement of pathological beliefs, is that really the “fulfillment” you were searching for in life?
Heloc abusers are NOT victims.
And you think EVERYONE profiled here was an abuser of choice. That’s stigmatization. Why don’t you pull up next to their homes en masse and jeer them as they move out? Or put special signs on their doors? Is it really any different jeering them here?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
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NANCY ~ YOU’RE A GOD DAMN VILLAGE IDIOT! YOU’VE BEEN WRONG FROM THE VERY BEGINNING, AND YOU’RE IN DENIAL RIGHT NOW!
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
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Exactly. In this blog, I’m an outcast. And I love my condition. Enjoy visiting this blog day after day after day….
The fulfillment and nourishment of a typical troll. Is this what you are searching for in life?
Actually, your trolling is epic. The blog hasn’t had this many comments in ages.
LOL – I visited 3x today because of Nancy.
There’s no such thing as bad publicity.
The richer the community, the longer they can afford to prop up their property values. Time will tell.
Yes, and the richer the community, the less they desperately gamble with their homes, the less they are likely to SELL their homes and create an unsustainable Supply that depresses their values.
I don’t know about that. In South OC there are lots and lots of “rich” people who are short selling after buying at the bottom of the last down turn. The gambled to live large like the really wealthy but lost.
Have you never seen the $1M+ heloc abusers? Rich, middle class, doesn’t matter, they all gambled.
65% crash. I see you are getting closer to my projections from last November.
By the way, I’m now projecting 70% off peak, if interest rates stay under about 7%.
I am also projecting that by 2011, on net, CA real estate will be underwater. Those loans which are upside down will more than cancel out those with equity, and those which have no mortgage at all. This calculation is frustrated by the speed of foreclosures being uncertain. A typical foreclosure takes you from an underwater mortgage(s), to a REO who has some equity. A different way of saying this is 2011 market values will be less than 2007 loan blanaces on the same homes.
This is for single family homes. Wouldn’t be surprised if the pattern repeats for office, retail, and hotels.
Some parts of California are already 60% or more off peak. Riverside (and the greater Inland Empire in general) certainly is-I personally paid 62.5% less than the last guy did on my house.
As for your California real estate being net underwater by 2011, I doubt that, mainly because much, if not the majority, of the most underwater houses would have gone into foreclosure and resold at a lower price by then (meaning they would no longer be underwater).
Some consider my projections very pessimistic. However, of the 7.5 million owner occupied housing units in CA, I project about 2 million will be foreclosures or short sales between 2007 and 2015. Thus, the majority will not go to foreclosure.
This problem will have a long tail on it. There will be a lot of people able to make payments for years. Then, health problem, job loss, relocation, etc. Finally, they give the keys to the bank.
You would also have to include credit cards and family borrowing. People will go to incredible lengths and I don’t blame them.
What I wonder about though is how much equity destruction are we witnessing and how many people who would’ve moved up the real estate ladder now cannot move up? That and the economy will govern what happens moving forward.
“This problem will have a long tail on it. There will be a lot of people able to make payments for years. Then, health problem, job loss, relocation, etc. Finally, they give the keys to the bank.”
I have always wondered if there would be a true capitulatory clearing or if there will be many people enduring being underwater for a decade or more. I find it amusing that people actually believe we are at the bottom and prices will go up from here.
I have been thinking on this very problem. Are we extending the down turn to give time to those that matter (i.e. the rich) to off load the debt on to those that don’t matter (the stupid) just long enough so that the banks won’t have to contend with the huge losses on the really big loans? Think about it. It so easy to manipulate people into thinking they are getting a deal of life time. What happens when average joe decides not to buy? We can’t have that.
IrvineRenter beat me to it. I spend a week down in Sarasota area each year and I see OC’s future happening down there. There are so many empty houses that even with the big rental market in that area of Florida, they can’t fill up.
This year I rented an oceanfront condo in Naples (south of Sarasota, but also on the gulf) from a woman that had failed to execute the flip. The location was perfect, but the condo was typical of a rental flip: high end everything, and nothing worked! No one had ever made a profit off the place, so no more money was going in to fix it. What a mess.
She had two of these units, and admitted to hemorrhaging money on both. She’s desperate for renters to slow the bleeding, but can’t fill the gap. I imagine that she’ll lose them eventually.
The difference between SW FL and Irvine is jobs. Broadcom is the one huge employer that has high quality jobs. Median income difference will cause some price difference. Also, I would guess there are far fewer vacation homes in Irvine – at the beach, maybe different.
I thought the difference is our large share of cash-rich, house-mongering Chinese who settle and never leave (and multiply profusely?)
Nancy, Your racist is showing. Today Chinese. Smear the Welch (prior post). The Chinese on before. You’ll need to make some comments on the Black too. What about Mexican? Hopefully no one in those groups do business with you.
Another RE at an OH was saying “the bottom is less than 2% lower. Everybody agrees on the 2%.”
My question: Will you or the REA make up for any loss beyond the 2%?
Newbie, do you ever get seasoned?
Just to assuage you, my best friends are Chinese.
All I want to know is if you ever found your sister’s slipper?
Seen the painting “American Gothic?”
I bet you didn’t see the sequel… the one with the woman burning on the stake, burned by those who envied her land. I recently saw a documentary on PBS regarding the story of Salem trials. With this blog’s particular attacks on independently-wealthy-females, it appears the Puritans have found new and creative ways to continue carrying out their “envisioned” burnings.
I wish a flying monkey would use a bucket of water to put out those flames.
And I wish the ones who received those lands just “lived” with their conscience. Is land and ownership really worth such lowness? Some of the victims were the mothers of those who complained against them in court. You believe that? Pray, save the human race.
“My best friends are Chinese”
The overused backpedalling statement of a racist.
“Misanthrope” is putting a faceless stigma on people you don’t know, generalizing that they fall in the same category, assuming that they have subhuman status in your blogs, then taking joy in their misery.
Nancy has got to be Kirk in disguise.
I’m of the opinion that “she” could be a tool to keep people from paying attention to your work.
e/best/only
Its ok to disagree. Its not nice to be disagreeable.
Just because Nancy is right about you home haters doesn’t mean it’s me. I find it apalling that you refuse to acknowedge that she is right. I also find it apalling that a woman has forgotten her role in society and is blogging instead of looking after her kids.
If your best friends are Chinese, you should know we do not multiply profusely.
I find it hilarious when people make degenerative comments about The Other and then claim to be best friends with them.
Un-bloodly-likely.
Kirk,
You really should write a book about blog trolling. You are on a par with Sacha Baron Cohen.
Awesome.
I believe in the Salem era people were very “ill” due to Lead Poisoning… correct me if I’m wrong…
I was up in the Madison, WI area a couple of weeks ago and took a stroll through a really nice small village about 30 miles to the northwest where there are some houses on a small lake.
The prices are between a ridiculouis 500K and 1M; the houses look pretty much like 80’s vintage and not McMansions so it’s painfully obvious that the boxes were being speculatively bid up as vaction homes by people that most likely live in the big city down south as I cannot imagine that many big-ticket jobs in the village.
Areas like these are going to be flattened when the debtors can’t hold on and have to start liquidating their vacation properties in order to make ends meet.
Still a ways to go.
You weren’t in Wisconsin Dells by any chance, were you? I grew up 60 miles north of Madison. Central Wisconsin is very beautiful at the end of June, and with with 18 hour long days, you can really enjoy it.
That’s funny. I was running around Sauk county. I was in Baraboo and also took the ferry across the Wisconsin river into Merrimac. I was very impressed with this area of Wisconsin – at least in the summer.
If the prices were realistic, I would definitely consider buying a vacation home out here someday.
http://www.crackthecode.us/images/merrimac.jpg
http://www.crackthecode.us/images/merrimac2.jpg
I have been on that ferry.
Did you get to see Devil’s Lake?
If you missed Wisconsin Dells, then you missed the real fun in Central Wisconsin.
I didn’t get a chance to see Devil’s Lake, but I saw it nearby on the map. I didn’t have a whole lot of time, but I plan on going back and checking out the area some more in the future. I’ll remember to check out the Dells too.
Michigan prices are hitting rock bottom, but very similar terrain. But I would get depressed living in Michigan.
Ya Hey Dare! Gotta love Wisconsin, #1 in the nation for binge drinking. My parents have been looking at lakefront vacation homes up near Minocqua, but the prices are still insane. Hopefully the next few years will bring some better deals.
Woodruff and Minocqua are really beautiful in the summer. I would retire there if the winters were not so brutal. Once you get north of Wausau, there are no more farms, so the countryside is all forests. It is very peaceful.
Yes, Chicago people only bought second homes in Madison because they were priced out of Lake Geneva, which has been a very high end area for 90 years and became too expensive for almost anyone during the bubble years.
Madison is a great place,a college town with a mind of its own and full of great people, but it doesn’t compare with Lake Geneva as a fashionable, luxe summer retreat. And even Geneva is experiencing slow sales.
Sorry I didn’t read the blog until now and missed the Wisconsin talk! Those expensive homes on the lake are likely owned by people from Chicago who invade Wisconsin with their fancy cars and their money and buy up the vacation properties. Wisconsin natives refer to them as FIBs…F*cking Illinois B*stards.
I love that inflationdata.com website. So many interesting things there.
Sales are happening there? Any sales.
Nothing over 300k is moving here, except short sales where the bank is losing 100s of thousands of dollars. Here being South Florida. We are now about 50% off peak and starting to drop even faster, to my anecdotal eyes.
The sales are still 40% below historic norms. The low end stuff is selling here because it is affordable. Very little is selling at prices over $500K.
According to the inflation calculator Blueberry Pie posted yesterday, inflation from 1978 to 2009 is 236%. So if $125k in 1978 is worth $297k today, why is a $125k house worth $2.5M?
It’s because the real inflation rate is much greater than what the gub’ment tells us.
Money supply increase is much greater than inflation.
Twenty times greater? I don’t think so.
Bull-nosed counter? Never seen that one before. Googled and came up with “Bullnose” not “Bull-nosed”. Either way it’s a pretty stupid name for a counter top; “smooth rounded” would have worked just fine for me and been much more intuitive than the visualization of a bull with a nose-ring.
QandAs:
What is a Bull Nose Counter?
Answer:
One of the more popular edges is the bull nose counter edge. The bull nose counter edge has a nice rounded profile, offering a clean, smooth transition from the top of the counter to the underside.
There are no sharp edges or harsh corners with a bull nose counter, making it a perfect choice for a more modern style kitchen. Most counter materials offer their own version of the bull nose counter profile, including the less expensive laminate options, so no matter what your budget, a bull nose counter is available for you.
Bull nose is standard, lowest-end. Comes with the granite at no extra change. If a contractor charges you per linear foot for bull nose, they’re ripping you off.
Thanks for straightening us out Dealeo. Now we understand for the million plus price tag we get standard, lowest-end Bull nose. At least they could have upgraded the Bull nose to something better. Maybe “Angus Bull nose.
Your a peach, thanks for the entertainment.
I just had lunch with my husband and shared with him the bull nose deal. He’s too busy for even reading a blog, no matter participating, but he has the most perceptive mind overall, that I adore and respect him with all my being.
He said the expression “granite counter-tops come with bull nose” is like saying we have a door and it comes with a lock. Or, the walls have switches.
He then said maybe the agent was from Afganistan. Abduallah, need a light? Here you go, light up this grenade.
š š š
And I’ll bet you have an “Afghani friend” too.
Wha? Huh? Raving.
No, but that must be a bad thing, Evil, I gather from your tone.
It seems as if they’ve taken 46 Whitford off the MLS. Redfin isn’t showing it as listed.
Maybe they sold it for that WTF price?
Redfin will show houses that are under contract if you check that option. It’s not showing at all, so they could have just delisted it.
In RE listing speak is:
1. Under contract = price agreed upon, but not yet sold
2. Accepting back up offers = either no offers or I want more.
3. no info = removed listing because of IHB ?
I think it had become very clear by the fall of 2006, something was very, very wrong with our local real estate market. Yet that didn’t stop the banks from loaning more HELOC money to the idiots above in 2007.
Top house ~ On 3/9/2007 he opened a HELOC for $105,000
Bottom House ~ On 1/31/2007 he opened a HELOC for $225,000<--WTF These loans were taken after the habitual home-debtors had borrowed until their LTVs were in the gray area. LOL ~ All I can do is laugh at this bullshit now. LMAO
You are approaching acceptance. I noticed in my own writing that I have become much less angry about the whole thing. After a while, you just shake your head in disbelief and laugh about it.
I can feel that way about individual homeowners, and I can even feel that way about the banks (to a degree), because hey, the “smart people” said it was safe and we all make stupid mistakes. What I can’t stop being angry about is our government’s response to this whole thing. And I’m not being partisan about it. I happen to lean conservative, but the Republicans and Bush were behind this nonsense nearly as bad as the Dem’s and Obama. The whole messy lot of them have gone crazy!
Why don’t they just let this thing run its course? People made mistakes, so OK, let them foreclose, go bankrupt, take their financial lumps individually, and move on. We all learn a hard lesson, some harder than others, and we move forward wiser for the experience. Let the banks get clobbered, let the FDIC take over a bunch of them, and then let’s dig out of this hole after the dust settles. However, this propping up of the housing market, reckless deficit spending on useless fluff, and bailing out of irresponsible borrowers and lenders is outrageous! I get MORE angry when I think about that, not less.
-Darth
Soon, you will come to accept that too….
Are you also offering a 12-step program for the audience, too?
Never thought I’m subtly receiving my daily dose of free blog-o-therapy.
Or is it like another delusional book, “Secret,” which taught positive thinkers materialize their pursuits (a bunch of lunacy well received by the naive impulsive crowd addicted to living large); except this book teaches the reverse… the author believes that by emanating negative mentality through such a medium, he can affect the desired negative outcome of the market?
I just came across a $1M house for sale the other day that listed in March of this year. Two months after the owners listed, they opened a $530K HELOC. That’s May 2009.
(To be fair, they only had $150 in debt on the place when they opened the HELOC.)
Oh yea.
http://www.crackthecode.us/images/Irvine_Kingdom.jpg
Jesus is a friend of mine!
I’ve been jesusrolled by Lee.
ZAP!
I come for the analysis, but I stay for AZDavidPhx
LMAO
Buddy Christ, can you please just let the market crash instead of the 10 to 20 years of stagflation we’re facing?
Couple of Jesus-inspired wars will get the economy going again.. so fear not.
We manage to create enemies despite being the holiest and most beneficent nation on this earth. š
Sometimes we create enemies, sometimes enemies create themselves. King of the mountain always has enemies.
Or if you have heard the writing on the wall in the book “1984” – the enemies are just posited to ensure the real enemies within never rise to challenge the state. Therein lies the irony in the phrase “Patriot Act” and everything else the fundamentalist right-wingers coin.
Fellows, how was the Jonestown cult created? “the reason for choosing Guyana was the Temple’s view of creeping fascism, the perception of the dominance of multinational corporations on the government, and perceived racism in the U.S. government.” Mr Jones was actually popular with politicians before he was deemed nuts.
Say now, who’s drinking kool-aide?
Jesus-inspired war — Showing your anti-Christian under tones?
JJ was an anti-Christian bisexual who was said to rape both men and women while in the Bay Area. Politician did like him. JJ was got the Carter’s state department to help him out to move to Guyana. Guyana govt didn’t want JJ in Guyana.
See how you think? No, you don’t. Don’t know what you don’t know. Can’t blame you.
If you were a homeowner exactly in my position, I bet you’d have sold by now believing you’re about to crash. And lived with regrets later, thinking IR is now the biggest Evil of the world.
… and that’s why I say invest in neighborhoods where the real fundamentals are strong…. there is really just one fundamental: IQ. In fundamentalist terms, all else pretty much emanates from it.
So the prices in your neighborhood are not going to fall because the buyers there have high IQs?
ROFLMAO!
I should pay you to keep stopping by…
I do not have a high IQ, but we did sell our home on Naples Island at the top of the market. We will buy again at the lows. But, unlike you, I am not so smart.
Wow, both of these places need to drop in price by 50% or more. Ridiculous how much these people are asking, can’t we just get on with the purge and get prices to a normal level!
Can’t do that as long as there is excess cash from the bubble lining the public’s wallets. That excess has to be burned through somehow.
This is feeling like a classic depression setup at this point. A big crash, followed by a flat to slight incline where all the excess money comes in, just to get knocked out by…the second large leg down.
People brush off the numbers sometimes, but we’re looking at YEARS of continued decline.
The cash buyers prancing out to play in the minefield are oblivious to the For Sale and For Rent signs everywhere: far too many signs for all the available cash to take down.
Among my earliest memories are the words “inflation” and “Saigon” on the car radio each time my father drove around town with my toddler self in the passenger seat. Inflation has continued to be a news item every year since, even though the panic peaked in 1980.
We could actually come to miss inflation. Deflation is ugly – debt everywhere chasing too little cash. What with the shaky Treasury auctions, the dollar does not look healthy, yet there’s all this debt bawling lustily to be fed with dollars. Yuk!
So far we’ve not had a failed Treasury auction as UK has.
Once long-term treasuries get cheap enough, guess who’ll be first to buy them back? China, Japan, Russia.. same countries that dumped the long-term.
It’s called playing the markets. If, savvy investors, hedge funds, pensions have learned to make money driving up commodity prices, then make money driving down commodity prices, why can’t the Sovereign Wealth Funds do the same?!
Like they say, the bears make money, the bulls make money… the pigs (sitting on the sideline) always get slaughtered, while they gape in awe of market forces.
Not very intellectually honest of you Nancy. The pigs in that phrase are the ones who hold without realizing gains. Not people on the sidelines waiting for a more advantageous time to buy.
OK so now we’re calling Irvine Homeowners Pigs? What a slick move, you win the argument!
BTW, do you miss your last governor and what he did to your pension funds while he served as consultant to Lehman Brothers? Let me give you a hint… around him you will hear oinking and everything that those Fundamentalists of Great Honor and Value touched turned into royal sh_t.
Stealing of pension funds occurred twice under brother piggie (see below), not once… reminds me of a saying about fools.
First stealing:
http://www.rense.com/general19/FLpensionAL.htm
Second stealing:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102×3908775
When Fundamentalists come around telling me how decent & righteous they are and the rest of the world is all Evil or unworthy (or HELOC abusers per this blog), I don’t WALK, I RUN to the closest door.
You have a generous definition of the word “stealing”.
The bigger wow was that they appraised so high to get all that heloc/refi money out. In Broward Co., FL I’ve seen homes that were bulit in 02/03 double, and now sell for less than they were new. That makes sense to me – you got exactly what you wanted, I want something different, plus it was new when you got it. I’ve also seen other homes built in 06/07 selling for far below their new prices. These are neighborhoods with former MLB managers and gold medal olympians living there. I see homes like this eventually going for less than their new prices – eventually.
Ex1: 386 new, 680 bubble, FC, sold 326 REO.
EX2: 770 new/06, 950 soon after, FC, sold 470 REO.
Builder is stuck with lots and new inventory that has to compete with reo’s. The area was so overbuilt, it will be a long time before building picks up. So much of the economy was building, RE marketing, and RE financing the it will snowball.
When will people understand “new” is not always better. “Big” is not always quality? Never.
I have been having a good laugh at these new renter shows that are popping up on HGTV.
All these young 20-somethings “looking for their first place” and they all show up expecting the world. They all want “newer” construction as though I building that is 5 years old does not have the same ability to provide shelter as one that was built 1 year ago.
What is hilarious is watching them check out these condo buildings that have been crapped out by the builders over these past few years who figured that they could design these units to house sardines and cattle. Bedrooms with no closets that connect to kitchens that have no counter space. No storage space of any kind.
You see them walk into the living room and I say to the TV “And here we are, standing in the closet”. The places are all covered in pergraniteel though and that is apparantly enough to make all these kids feel good about themselves. You wouldn’t want to invite your friends over for an afternoon of wine tasting and cheese doodle munching and have them be confronted with some alien non-granite material of which the cheese tray is sitting upon. That would be very embarassing.
The places are expecting people to pay rents between 1600$-2000$ per month and some even charge extra for the parking space. It is unreal how you can throw granite into the place and sell a lower standard of living to people who would be better off finding a building that was constructed in the 80’s when the name of the game was not maximizing every last square inch and more emphasis was placed on living space.
Yep, practically anything I buy new has lower quality than older models. It’s how manufacturers/builders keep prices down in a country that has outsourced manufacturing in exchange for WallStreet products and positions.
Perhaps it’s a form of gradual and unnoticeable euthanasia of the middle class. Gradual change is not noticeable… especially when dressed up in lipstick.
The Saintsbury folk must be Irish.
Bull-nosed countertops AND “beryl” wood?
No shortage of stone in this fabulous listing. Sign me up!
http://www.burlwood.org/
Can someone tell me what this statue from the Saintsbury property is doing?
http://media.cdn-redfin.com/photo/46/bigphoto/974/S570974_5_0.jpg
LOL! IrvineRenter you have a sick sick mind.
Maybe using a sword on one self. Maybe a bandjo. We need a close up picture.
I found the missing part of the statue out in the backyard. Now it makes a lot more sense. Hope that clears up the confusion.
http://www.crackthecode.us/images/wanker_statue.jpg
Playing a guitar and/or knitting while using the commode?
Great post at Calculated Risk on Mortgage fraud:
FBI: U.S. Mortgage Fraud “Rampant” and “Escalating”.
“Mortgage fraud trends in 2008 reflected the overall downturn in the US economy … the mortgage loan industry reported a spike in foreclosures and defaults; and financial markets continued to contract, diminishing credit to financial institutions, businesses, and homeowners. These combined factors uncovered and fueled a rampant mortgage fraud climate fraught with opportunistic participants desperate to maintain or increase their current standard of living. Industry employees sought to maintain the high standard of living they enjoyed during the boom years of the real estate market and overextended mortgage holders were often desperate to reduce or eliminate their bloated mortgage payments.”
“…fraught with opportunistic participants desperate to maintain or increase their current standard of living.”
And this is different from gangbangers knocking over a liquor store? Hmm…
I enjoy the description of “steal” as “maintain or increase [one’s] current standard of living.”
There is never a bad time to be a white-collar criminal in the financial services sector.
If he sells the house he bought for $531,500 on 10/24/2002 for $1,089,000, I don’t think it will crash the market!
All of the people like him who must sell creates a situation where he will not get his asking price, and it will crash the market. Prices don’t crash from the activities of discretionary sellers; markets crash because people have to sell at whatever price the market will bear.
As somebody who wants to buy a home, sometimes I feel like the floor traders of Enron profiled in “The Smartest Guys In The Room” when they are watching the fires in California and saying “burn baby burn!”
I feel giddy every time I see a house being sold for significantly less than its purchase price.
You will find a lot of friends here.
But I must admit, it’s no different than watching a person get run over by a car, then jumping in joy and celebration, the person celebrating being a cripple.
Schadenfreude is a mental disease, not to be invigorated and fed. Read the Wiki pages on the word, it mentions that all major religions warn their subjects not to engage in it. It ranks up there with sociopaths and misanthropes. Animals do not engage in schadenfreude and mass killings, only humans are capable of it.
And formulas and false generalizations justify it here. Heloc abusers exist, bailouts just helped the banks, so we feel joy in the misery of those who are forced to sell at the worst times in their living market history.
There is no difference between the behavior of this mod here, and the mob that gassed the Jews in the 40’s. Absolutely, no difference.
Don’t feed the sociopaths.
That’s crazy. We aren’t wishing them physical harm.
Nancy,
if this blog is a mob of angry renters that are jumping in joy and celebration watching poor citizens suffer, what are you, your majesty, doing here every day for the past several weeks?
Making sure the mob realizes, we’re watching, and we remember.
Nancy, I don’t take pleasure in other people’s misfortunes, but I definitely DO take pleasure in watching prices fall back to affordability. Maybe, in another year, when I feel my own income is stable and reliable enough, I can buy the condo I wanted but moved quickly away from me in price the minute I was poised to buy it.
I’m still smarting from the insufferable smugness of buyers in my area who condescended to me because I couldn’t afford the quickly inflating prices of decent condos in my area with a 30-year fixed. Now, thanks to the collapse of this asset bubble, I can. Well, now I know how THEY were affording them- they were taking out mortgages for 7X their incomes! How can I not laugh at the fools who borrowed and gamble so recklessly, while piling scorn on the more prudent and honest?
Why shouldn’t some people get a few yuks from the misfortunes of all the smug idiots who bought the bill of goods and borrowed beyond their means. After all, we’re all paying for their recklessness now.
And the HELOC abusers and foreclosure “victims” should take it on the chin. For, after all, they got to live high on money they never lifted a finger to earn, but which the taxpayers at large are being forced to pay back. The foreclosure “victims” are living rent-free in homes that were always way beyond their means for 6 months, 9 months, or sometimes longer. Let me tell you that my rent is within my means, and the day it isn’t, my landlords will move very quickly to evict and will get the job done within 60 days.
I don’t laugh at the REAL victims, such as the millions of jobless people who are losing homes they bought honestly within their means, but can no longer afford because they have been jobless for a year or more, and have run out of savings and employment. I would do anything within my limited power to help these people keep their homes, which would mean help them get jobs. I don’t laugh at the people who have diligently contributed to their 401K plans for years, who are finding themselves at age 64 at the edge of desitution because their money managers invested their funds in an array of swindles based on housing debt, engineered by maniacs on Wall Street- who have gotten away clean, $40MM bonuses and Hamptons mansions intact- with one of the biggest swindles in the history of civilization. I don’t laugh at the denizens of cities like Detroit or Cleveland, where the industries that made the U.S. great have been replaced by financial scams and asset pumping, and are left with no legitimate way to make a living.
The housing rampage benefited no one but the financial houses that engineered it. It drove housing not only out of the range of affordability not only for buyers but for renters as well, as the rapidly inflating house values drove up rents and priced low-wage people out of any kind of rental housing in major cities. It drove up property taxes, resulting in people who struggled for 40 years to honestly own their houses, being blown out of them by property taxes. Interest rates were driven so low that people dependent upon the income from investments were forced into highly risky investments as the income from their safe investments dwindled to near-zero.
Therefore, you can figure that most of the people posting in here were in one manner or the other injured by the speculative rampage that has left our financial system in collapse and the taxpayers saddled with bills no one will ever be able to pay back. So are we really so horrible for taking just the tiniest bit of pleasure in the amply-earned “misfortunes” of reckless borrowers like the two homeowners Irvine Renter features on today’s post and so many others? Look at the borrowing history on these two houses- these folks had one hell of a good time on their way to foreclosure and bankruptcy, and the worst they’ll suffer is a blot on their credit score. Why should we NOT take a little joy in watching them get their butts kicked?
Laura…well done.
Outstanding Laura.
The silence from the troll is deafening.
After all, those WTF loanowners DESERVE to be cashed out at the expense of any discretionary income.
It is right and it is good to spend more money on housing to prop up values, especially for the Nancy’s of the world who bought in 2002. Keep that cushion in tact. No fear Nancy. None at all. Let’s be honest … it’s fear that brought you here. You’re not trying to convince US of anything.
“There is no difference between the behavior of this mod here, and the mob that gassed the Jews in the 40ās. Absolutely, no difference.”
Ahh, yes. Good ol’ Godwin’s Law at play here. Careful, Nancy…now you’re becoming textbook.
Hm… maybe what I consider PRIME is not what IR considers prime. This is NOT PRIME and established in my classification.
Such developments are extremely new (less than a decade?) and carry the “luxury premium” that depreciates fast; they are exactly what attracts pretend spenders, a point on which I’m in full accord with IR.
PRIME is *not* built on less desirable land, and the recent developments in Irvine all got the leftovers, the undesirables. Take Colombus Grove for instance, built on a SuperFund from the nearby concrete company pollution, has a recycling plant and a commercial bus parking lot which will annoy you with their 5 AM beeps while the buses back-up. The developers were promising prospective homeowners Irvine Schools, and they built them a mobile home park for schools?! Stonecreek, is it? Check out their ratings… not quite what I consider “PRIME.” In their open houses we said the same concerns to a few prospect buyers, and they probably thought we were discouraging them to get an advantage over them. Sad, when people are deaf to plain reason.
Now this property has the TUSTIN school district and is right next to a major road. What exactly qualifies this as PRIME… I’m at a total loss to understand. Perhaps those who understand things that I don’t should help bring an eye-opening epiphany to my pessimistic delusions.
When will ya give me a real case of prime property collapse?
Meh: Tautologies are tautologies.
I’m guessing that your definition of prime will be limited to those neighborhoods which have not yet cratered.
Simple enough: each community which drops substantially will be struck off the sacred list of prime neighborhoods with laser, X-ray, market-defying superpowers. As this group of ultra-superhero neighborhoods shrinks to only a handful, it can only reinforce your belief that those who bought outside were “pretend” spenders.
The only flaw in this categorization? If all neighborhoods tank, or your neighborhood tanks, then you have classed yourself among the fools who did not buy in the easily-identifiable superneighborhoods which never collapse in price.
BTW, what’s a “pretend spender”? Are these the folks who spent real money on a non-graceful home outside the sacred ring of market-immune communities, and do not have families, or at least the right sort of family and a loving marriage? Is the money they spent somehow not real, or are they simply not the right sort of family, and therefore subject to severe market losses on their non-graceful home?
Say “Good night,” Gracie.
There’s no point arguing with fundamentalists of any sort. The world is black and white in their view.
I only advise you that when you get a property matching your “fundamental value” just make sure you check what’s behind that big wall next to the property.
OK, so who approved Dealtracker’s IHB account?
-Darth
That first one has some serious pergraniteel, interestingly combined with a sort of jungle look. And nothing says “Romantic master suite” like “Corian countertop”
In retrospect, what do you think was better. Buying a house at a high price, heloc’ing the heck out of it, defaulting on the mortgage and staying rent free for a year or so till the govt bails you out or you leave due to a foreclosure at the taxpayers(renters) expense. As opposed to investing the downpayment in the stock market in safe mutual funds only to watch them fall by 30-40%. The second option does not include a bailout for joe renter like me.
BTW – my realtor tells me that the Irvine market has bottomed out, you will see an increase going forward…wtf kool aid never stops flowing. who knows Irvine is different.
If the government were to put a $1 tax on every realtor who called the bottom, we would have enough money to pay off the bad loans caused by people overpaying due to the bad advice given to them by realtors.
When I bought in 2002, I expected a 35% drop in value – the recent price increase seemed execessive.
That didn’t discourage me from buying versus renting where the upstairs tenant used to jump up and down at odd hours of the night, probably high on some drugs.
I evaluated what I can afford comfortably and expected short-term depreciation, rather than market timing.
And I didn’t abuse HELOC – instead I paid cash into the loan and refi’ed it at an amazing rate with a 15 yr loan.
Did I live to regret it? No.
Do I care if my home goes down to 1998 levels? No.
In the meantime, I’m gonna go around the block and meet my new Asian neighbors.
You seem to be a sensible homeowner. You purchased what you could afford and worked hard to pay off the mortgage. I wish others did the same. I have the following questions for you.
a)As a sensible homeowner do you feel angry that the banks and heloc abusers created a situation where your house is not appreciating in value at a reasonable rate? Do you feel that the wild swings in prices are ok.
b) What is wrong if your asian home owners are purchasing homes in your area, you should be happy, their significant downpayments and purchases are creating a false bottom for you.
c) Do you feel bad that asians are snapping up properties or the fact that abusers lost their properties or you are merely stating facts with no opinon either way? (you mention ‘asian’ after every 2-5 posts)
“false bottom” – or “false fundamentalist ideology” ? We won’t know, until we know. But we all THINK we know. And there are those who know that they don’t know, and unfortunately, there are those who don’t know that they don’t know. Those blow their horns the hardest, history seems to teach us.
Homes values are a function of supply and demand. What figures into supply and demand is VERY complex, much like the question of why is the dollar worth such and such Euros. Fundamentalists have an opinion and formula, but how often are they right?
Banks will give loans to prudent buyers going forward; what makes you think the supply of distressed homes, the only ones coming into the market recently, will extend forever? What makes you think the fabric of the town will deteriorate further? What makes you think the ones buying 100% cash right now are buying to flip in a few years? Where do you think the people settling and raising a family right now in my town, can go to, if they sell their home “for a profit?” In the 2006-7 timeframe we practically never saw a for-sale sign in our block, that’s what NORMAL looks like in good areas such as Westside, and that’s what NORMAL might look like once the deadwood clears out of the market; we will see very LOW supply; how does that impact prices? People buy to stay and raise their family here, not entertaining thoughts of gambling with their homes when they go up or down.
60% or more of our local school is Asian and it seems to have increased this year – that is not to say they’re better than others, but to say the majority of those moving in are high-cash Asian buyers who seem to manage money prudently. I admire responsible renters and homeowners alike, of all cultures and origins. It’s character that counts in my book.
No one can predict the bottom or peak, we just make educated guesses based on our own assumptions. I call it a false bottom because there is no way in hell that a family with an Irvine median income afford an Irvine median home. One could give a certain amount of premium to the joy of home ownership but it defies logic that people are spending more than 50 – 60% of their take home pay on mortgage/hoa/taxes. I just refuse to believe that Irvine is full of millionares.
I did not imply that people purchased homes to flip them. They purchased homes based on false assumptions of affordability and rate of increase. The could be a few genuine cases but most were just plain greedy. Most fencesitters were forced to commit by realtors and mortgage brokers…it was (and probably is) buy now or be priced out forever.
Would you buy a Lexus or a ford fiesta if you were told that both had monthly payments of $300. Prudent buyers would look at the cost and duration of the loan, the insurance, the maintenance and the need before making the purchase. Most homebuyers were simply looking at the monthly payments, now they are suffering. Should i be forced to pay for their bailouts…i dont think so.
I based my assumptions on the state of the economy. I dont disregard you opinion, you maybe right. At the moment I am just not comfortable enough to commit a my hard earned money towards a downpayment.
I never buy a Lexus because it’s not the cost of ownership that turns me off, it’s the cost of maintenance. Each tire rotation, oil change, new tires… they suck the luxury premium from you, and make the money at that point, not at purchase time, necessarily. That’s how pigs gets dressed up & sold with lipstick in this land of ours. Luxurious large homes are no different. Try getting a quote for a simple plumbing job on a luxury home. When the contractor smells money, he’ll be sure to milk it.
I’ve been about a median earner in Irvine since I moved in. And I saved significantly despite my higher-than-average payments on the 15 year mortgage. We didn’t spend like the people in Corona Del Mar. We knew our place in society and lived below our means, frugal and humble lives, but rich with happy moments and healthful habits. We invested compulsively, but NEVER is stocks. And now, we reap the rewards with no apologies. I can’t imagine how people COULDN’T have saved all along the last era of exorbitant EASY money. Some of that money will always be locked into assets, we can’t naively assume things to return to level 0 – the Fed will ensure it will not happen. I learned this lesson seeing the East Bay prices go from low-400K in late 90’s, to 800K in 2001, and over 1 million now. Will they return to 400K? No need to fetch my crystal ball.
Certain cheap money in the past GreenSpan era will remain in our pockets and assets. Those who used capital prudently, will reap the benefits.
BTW, will you ever hear that the 30-year Treasury yield going down within the next month being paraded on this blog. But you hear its going up, making the blog headlines (end of May). There will be an opportunity to refi or lock in good rates. For others, they will forever remain in permabear, until the hourglass runs out.
A wave of distressed homes will come into the market but the Fed will ensure there will be buyers for them, by lower long-term Treasuries and buying more GSE debt, and further stimulus packages.
“and unfortunately, there are those who donāt know that they donāt know. Those blow their horns the hardest, history seems to teach us.”
So that’s why you made 100 astute observations today…
This woman is weird. To be honest she seems to make sensible points that get my ears perked every now and then, but then blows the whole things out on the next sentence with some weird clumsy and irrelevant side rant.
Unfortunately she’s too erratic to be classified as anything but a troll. Sigh.. I’d rather wish we had serious people presenting the opposing view sometimes, not just caricatures. I find the Schedenfreude a bit much myself sometimes.
Just as the WTF bubble purchases increased the value of your home, their exit from the market will have the opposite effect.
Incidentally, I have the same feeling you do, only add to that the issue of having kids in school. We were in a rental that foreclosed and the available properties in the area that met our criteria ended up feeding an alternate school.
There is value in putting down roots, but not at the risk of overextending. That is why values have to align with incomes. It’s a positive thing, because it will attract people like you back to the market.
Regarding Asian buyers… didn’t the Japanese buy up a ton of distressed assets back in the 80’s and 90’s? I seem to remember their investments getting decimated in the process.
BS that you foresaw a drop in value. You only say that now as you look in the rear view mirror and feel the need to brag. And how many times are you going to tell your “story” about 15 year loan, blah, blah (incidentally, no loan equals no mortgage deduction). Yawn.
Dearest Federal Lawyer, not to be personal, but isn’t it against Federal Law to use taxpayer time to be blogging?
Not when I’m not on the clock smart aleck. I have maxi-flex. Get a clue. Maybe you have so much free time b/c you are an unemplyed real estate agent.
And I’m using my personal PC, Ms. Nosey. Why don’t you shack up with Dealeo on Lansner’s blog and leave us alone?
Leave you to your quiet desperation? No chance.
BS: There’s no way in H you expected a 35% drop in 02.
I verily did. Here’s exactly how I operate in a nutshell: Expect the WORST, hope for the BEST.
That has been my precept throughout my life. I listen to the most negative of analysts, trash what I don’t believe in, absorb any good advice that already in my bag of precepts, and then I move on with my life. I don’t sit on sidelines waiting for the heavens to fall. For millennia false prophets have been calling for the end of the world. And they reaped plenty of supporters just mentioning calamities from the last war or disaster. What did these prophets want, ultimately? Fame, notoriety, whatever Mr Jones wanted? Your contributions? Just an innocuous “support” network?
False prophets have also promised heaven and earth to those who have faith in what they are selling. Good for you for ignoring their claims during the bubble years. Too bad fewer people are like you; they believed the promises and drove up housing prices. Their behavior shaped the market, not yours, since there were more believers like them than there were skeptics like you.
There’s lots of bad advice coming from the “just believe” peddlers and there always will be.
What makes IHB different is that it backs up its claims with data. IHB readers are the opposite of fundamentalists, Nancy. You ought to retract your prior name calling.
You know George Soros once had a job in the Agriculture department of the Nazi administration to divvy up lands of the fleeing Jews to the Righteous and Deserving. Just how convoluted history is, amazing.
Did you actually read IrvineRenter’s comments to me here? I think it’s somewhere below.
Soros was thirteen years old in March 1944 when Nazi Germany took military control over Hungary[12]. For two days, Soros worked for the Jewish Council[5], which had been established during the Nazi occupation of Hungary to forcibly carry out Nazi and Hungarian government anti-Jewish measures. Soros later described this time to writer Michael Lewis:
The Jewish Council asked the little kids to hand out the deportation notices. I was told to go to the Jewish Council. And there I was given these small slips of paper…It said report to the rabbi seminary at 9 a.m….And I was given this list of names. I took this piece of paper to my father. He instantly recognized it. This was a list of Hungarian Jewish lawyers. He said, “You deliver the slips of paper and tell the people that if they report they will be deported.
Taken from wikipedia. I’m done debating you, Nancy. The only responses you deserve are ones like these, shining the truth on your vitriol.
I disagree. I read this blog weekly primarily because I find the content of the posts and comments informative and educational. Troll/counter-troll is not what I signed up for, so I will skip over any Nancy-rich areas. If they become more widespread, I am less likely to return.
You are a freak. A narcissistic loon.
And what if you had bought in 2006 instead of 2002. My guess is you’d be profiled here sometime soon.
And even if you weren’t, you’d be kicking yourself for buying a home you could afford at a stupid time to buy.
IR,
Is it true that in CA refinanced mortgages are recourse loans?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/147018-new-affordable-fhfa-loan-program-sounds-like-predatory-lending?ref=patrick.net
Okay, I’ll try again with no links… In California, the original loan(s) (the 80/20 two loan method counts) to pay for the house is considered PURCHASE money, so it is non-recourse. If you refinance, that money is officially paying off the first LOAN, not buying your primary dwelling, so it becomes a recourse loan.
I read about it not long after I moved here and was confused (more) why everyone thought that refinancing was the answer.
Refinancing is the way. All depends on what the goal:
1. Refinance your way into lower rate and hope prices go back up to sale at break even or
2. Give refinances to make recourse loans and have indentured servants.
Remember, the “best and brightest financial minds” who have lead and are leading the financial policy.
Thought it was worth mentioning for the out of area folks that the yard photos of the first home (Rutherford) are showing you the entire yard– these homes were built on small lots- and being a single story– they take up virtually the entire lot. Imagine a $1M house with no yard?
I noticed the same thing when I saw the overhead view. I guess you just get used to that in Irvine.
Typical Chinese Irvine family HELOCing the shit out of there house trying to be excepted in the community. What pisses me off is I feel somehow I’m going to have to pay for these idiots. I love the Buddha spitting out water, maybe if they prayed hard enough he will spit out some cash.
“maybe if they prayed hard enough he will spit out some cash.”
It already spit out over $500,000. How much more can we ask of it?
Well, you said it exactly right – they’d be very “excepted” by their community if they spent profligally.
I was really on a roll today. When will you learn that the only real estate that matters is West L.A. West L.A envy is all over this blog. As you can see I love this blog. I can’t stay away. š
LOL “I was really on a roll today”
Classic. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-78hfZOu_s&feature=related
Great movie, cool clip
lol. I imagine that to be Nancy, but instead she is saying “I will troll this blog today” as she fervently types about her kool aid intoxication.
IR has let his dogs out… the above is another hacker.
actually, IR hasn’t let his dogs out. We were all chilling around in his yard and you ran under the fence and started yapping at us. Some of us are going to want to defend the yard and end the yapping. Some will sit back and think the yapping is entertaining. I personally think it’s a little entertaining. To each his/her own.
That’s exactly what it is – entertainment, amusement, but with claims to being a Science and a confused followership waiting for the Holy Signal.
If only people didn’t take themselves so seriously so as to believe in their own formulas and Laws of Market Timing.
Now go back and enjoy the schadenfreude, it’s healthy for your psyche.
Yes, it is true. The original loan (even if you do something like the 80/20 two loan thing) is considered PURCHASE money, going to pay for the house, so in California it is a non-recourse loan. If you refinance, that money is officially paying off the original LOAN, not buying the house, so it becomes a recourse loan.
http://www.bills.com/blog/california-recourse-loan/
http://piggington.com/recourse_and_non_recourse_clarification
The recourse aspect only becomes relevant if the lender actually pursues the borrower for the shortfall.
What’s the story so far in California? In practice are HELOC lenders exercising their recourse rights?
Clearly pursuing judgment and bankruptcy against tens of thousands in California will be a complete mess. The ones you’d want to go after – the richer more educated type with actual assets – would also be the ones who would fight the hardest and hire attorneys etc.
Nancy, I’m confused. I think you said you live in Irvine. But why do you talk about West LA so much?
Did you move to Irvine from LA?
Westside (not West LA, necessarily) is an example of where fundamental laws have no bearing. 80% of people in Brentwood retain their home for 30 years. It’s an example that some people readily get. The ones who practice Real Estate Fundamentalism need not even contemplate affording there.
Nancy is beginning to scare me. I just read what she wrote at 4:10pm today. Now she’s talking about the Holocast. Her writings today remind me of how a friend speaks when he is manic.
Funny the word is even German. What amount of Schadenfreude must have been going on when people were leaving their homes, the ones who were *clearly* and *doubtlessly* responsible for the social calamities of their time and age, in Nazi Germany?
I guess those who do not learn from history are bound to repeat it.
I hope this adds a new dimension of confusion to your otherwise solidly framed thoughts in this blog.
Sickos are just sickos, we’ve seen them in Nazi Germany, and we see them today in blogs; they come in all kinds of flavors, but their substance is alike; you notice they rarely go public about their schadenfreude at work or among friends, they take comfort in the anonymity of such blogs.
i’ve missed you… Kirk..
He could teach an advanced course in internet trolling. This is some of the finest I have seen. Every comment is designed to get engagement; they are just outrageous enough to get attention without being over the line. The sophistry is subtle, and the persona is maintained through shifting subjects and paradigms. Classic.
I wonder if people get paid to troll like this.
Can a companay like Google pay some people to troll MSFT sites all day?
Summer is half over. Soon, smart people will start price dumping, hoping to get out alive before the buying season is over. Others, in a few weeks, will be stuck with the albatross perhaps until next year. Somehow, the ugliness is a fitting counter-point to the beauty of bull nosed kitchen counters. Have fun, people.
IR, Nancy bothers some people, but she has crossed the line for me. Good luck with the blog- – you do a great service. And even better luck getting a piece of the sales when things bottom and you can help the smart folks here on your blog. I won’t ever be back, thanks to Nancy. She’s sick and has ruined it for me. I have to go spend some time protecting what cash I have so I can join in the fun in a couple of years. Thanks for the ride.
I see my time here has not been in vain. This blog is really low stuff.
I may have liberated at least one person from this daily addiction to pathological schadenfreude.
In case you have any doubts, I’m genuine, never used any other alias and never visited any other blogs.
You’re my first adopted and beloved child.
Nancy..you are one sick chick. Although I do think you are a man. I can’t go one on one with you. But, I have no desire to anyway. I can match (or beat) you in my home purchase. We bought in 1993 after renting for 10 years.I’ve lived in Irvine since 1983. This is the only home we’ve owned and we have been responsible homeowners. I didn’t even know what a HELOC was until I started to read this blog earlier this year. Enjoy yourself with your posts. They don’t bother me, but your thoughts do scare me.
Let me not deny you your daily dose of schadenfreude delivered fresh from IR’s esteemed mind. I’m sure they will keep flowing as steadily as they have the past years. Just understand the ultimate consequence of such mentality, it’s not pretty. It started slow in Germany, and it grew steadily and surely into heinous ends.
People who believe the end justifies the means will just pump up the image of their Devil in order to justify the ugly means by which they kill their envisaged devils.
As I read somewhere…:
“FAN THE FLAMES OF HATRED PEOPLE, YOU ARE DOING A GREAT JOB!!!”
In that case,, have you ever had an orgazm?!
Just ignore what the woman writes, it’s simple, whenever I see one of her posts I just skip over it. There is no reason to read her nonsense, it’s just a waste of time.
Since your world of Truth is limited to the undisputed facts of Wikipedia, let’s add an excerpt:
David K
June 15, 2009 at 1:51 pm
Shortly after George went to live with Baumbach, the man was assigned to take inventory on the vast estate of Mor Kornfeld, an extremely wealthy aristocrat of Jewish origin. The Kornfeld family had the wealth, wisdom, and connections to be able to leave some of its belongings behind in exchange for permission to make their way to Lisbon. Baumbach was ordered to go to the Kornfeld estate and inventory the artworks, furnishings, and other property. Rather than leave his āgodsonā behind in Budapest for three days, he took the boy with him. As Baumbach itemized the material, George walked around the grounds and spent time with Kornfeldās staff. It was his first visit to such a mansion, and the first time he rode a horse. He collaborated with no one and he paid attention to what he understood to be his primary responsibility: making sure that no one doubted that he was Sandor Kiss. Among his practical concerns was to make sure that no one saw him pee.
For Nancy’s sake I hope she is a robot and not real.
If she is real it’s pretty easy to figure her out:
clearly unemployed, manically depressed, and in some way related to the real estate industry
At first it was entertaining, now it’s just sad and a bore like the rest of the statistics from the deflationary death spiral.
Thank you for this information!