Tonight is the night. We are scheduled to have an IHB Block Party on Monday, March 9,
2009, at J.T. Schmids at the District.
This is a special invitation to lurkers. I always enjoy meeting the silent majority who read the site but otherwise stay in the shadows. Please come out tonight.
In California, we are concerned about picking the bottom because prices are so volatile. In normal real estate markets, the bottom is not a price point; it is a condition of price stability.
Formerly million-dollar properties offered at a 35% discount are pretty rare in Woodbury. It is a sign of things to come.
Asking Price: $650,000
Address: 94 Rinaldi, Irvine, CA 92620
{book2}
Rock Bottom — Eminem
A-yo!
This song is dedicated to all the happy people
All the happy people who have real nice lives
And who have no idea whats it like to be broke as f@#$
I have written about the conditions and circumstances at the market bottom on other occasions including: The Market Bottom and Fundamentals at a Market Bottom. The obsession we have in California with picking market bottoms is an unusual but necessary function of the extreme volatility in our real estate market. Not long ago I wrote Timing Does Matter.
When prices are extremely volatile, as they are here in California,
proper timing of a real estate purchase is very important. However, if markets were to stabilize and remain stable, picking a bottom would be unimportant. Stable markets are always at the bottom.
A stable market, a market that is at the bottom, is a combination of psychological and technical factors. Psychologically, in a stable market, there is an absence of belief in appreciation. When people believe prices are going to rise significantly (faster than wages or other investments), markets become unstable because people buy to speculate on appreciation rather than to provide shelter for their families. This buying constitutes the self-fulfilling prophecy of irrational exuberance and kool aid intoxication. Technically, in a stable market, loan terms limit price increases to the level of wage growth. Affordability products destabilize markets by allowing prices to rise faster than wage growth.
Cause we see them dollar signs and let the cash blind us
Money will brainwash you and leave your ass mindless
Stable markets are always at the bottom. Nominal prices are going up, so it isn’t a bottom from a pure price-point perspective; however, real prices–prices adjusted for wage inflation–are not going up. When real prices do not go up, you are at the bottom, irrespective of the increase in nominal prices. In terms of the percentage of income people have to put toward housing to obtain the same quality of life, nothing changes.
For example, if you make $100,000 a year, with low interest rates and a sizable downpayment, you may be able to afford a $400,000 property (most stable markets actually trade at less than three-times income). Next year if you get a 3% cost-of-living adjustment raise, you would be making $103,000, and you would be able to afford a property that is 3% more expensive. You could finance a $412,000 property instead of a $400,000 one putting the same percentage of your income toward housing. This effect of increasing bids with increasing wages is why house prices rise with wage inflation in a stable bottoming market.
In California, our real estate markets are not stable. Prices often rise here in excess of wage inflation. This occurs because irrational exuberance takes over and people become convinced prices will rise forever. When this cultural pathology is enabled by lenders through affordability products, lowered lending standards, higher allowable DTIs, and other methods, our prices take flight.
As I mentioned in another post Affordability Mortgage Products Make Prices Unaffordable, Lenders enable people to bid up pricing. Increasing prices engage the cultural pathology of kool aid intoxication, and an unsustainable rally begins. Since affordability products result in high default rates and foreclosures, these products are withdrawn from the market, prices crash, and psychology turns bearish.
I feel like I’m walking a tight rope, without a circus net
I’m popping percocets, I’m a nervous wreck
I deserve respect; but I work a sweat for this worthless check
Bout to burst this tech, at somebody to reverse this debt
If we eliminate affordability products–something the financial markets are doing anyway–our real estate market will be stable. Of course, we still have to endure the price crash down to stable bottoming price levels; although, once we are there, if affordability products are not brought back again, houses will be affordable, and the market will always be at the bottom.
The real estate cycle is an interrelated series of changes in credit availability and market psychology. Affordability products are the root of the problem because they are inherently unstable. When financing is unstable, market pricing is unstable. Our recent experiment with affordability products was a failure. This isn’t our first attempt; we tried in the late 80s and, and we failed. I hope this most recent failure seals the fate of these loan programs. When you consider how painful the second strike against these products has been, if we take a third swing, there will be no joy in California–the mighty Homedebtor will strike out.
My life is full of empty promises
And broken dreams
I’m hoping things will look up
But there ain’t no job openings
Today’s featured property is a hugely discounted and relatively new home in Woodbury.
Income Requirement: $162,500
Downpayment Needed: $130,000
Monthly Equity Burn: $5,416
Purchase Price: $1,010,000
Purchase Date: 8/27/2006
Address: 94 Rinaldi, Irvine, CA 92620
Beds: | 4 |
Baths: | 3 |
Sq. Ft.: | 2,104 |
$/Sq. Ft.: | $309 |
Lot Size: | 3,000
Sq. Ft. |
Property Type: | Single Family Residence |
Style: | French Country |
Year Built: | 2006 |
Stories: | 2 |
View: | Hills, Mountain |
Area: | Woodbury |
County: | Orange |
MLS#: | S565927 |
Source: | SoCalMLS |
Status: | Active |
On Redfin: | 3 days |
across from one of the beautiful parks in The Woodbury Commons. Not
only is the home loaded with builder upgrades it is also in one of the
best locations in Stone Tree Manor. This four-bedroom, three full bath
home has decorator hardwood floors throughout. The livingroom has a
great fireplace, large viewing windows and oversized french doors. The
designer kitchen has a wonderful office nich, breakfast bar,lots of
counter space and another two sets of french doors. There is a main
floor bedroom with custom built-ins and full bath. Upstairs there is a
nice sized laundry room, the spacious master bedroom has a private bath
and separate shower with a large walk-in closet complete with
organizers. Another full bath upstairs with two additional bedrooms,
one with a mountain view. This ‘never lived -in home’ is located in the
village of Woodbury, walking distance to schools,shopping and dining in
the Commons.
Never lived in? Unfortunately, I cannot locate the property records on this property. Is this the builder dumping it? It this a flipper bailing after two years of bleeding cash? I don’t know.
According to Redfin, the owner paid $1,010,000 on 8/27/2006–right at the peak. I do not know who owns it or what financing they have in place. Given the $360,000 discount of its purchase price, if there is financing, it is likely a short sale. If this sells for its asking price, and if a 6% commission is paid, the total loss will be $399,000; let’s call it $400,000. Ouch!
For as painful as this loss is going to be, the people who must really be freaking out are the comparable properties. If you look at the list at the bottom of the sales page on Redfin, you see all the similar properties in the neighborhood that are for sale. The asking prices range from $775,000 to $888,000 with an average cost per square foot of $396. Today’s featured property is undercutting them by over 15%, and the asking price is $309/SF. Those other sellers just witnessed their own doom. Any potential buyer is going to have great difficulty obtaining financing with this new low comparable in the area.
The crash of the high end is gaining momentum.
{book3}
A-yo!
This song is dedicated to all the happy people
All the happy people who have real nice lives
And who have no idea whats it like to be broke as f@#$
I feel like I’m walking a tight rope, without a circus net
I’m popping percocets, I’m a nervous wreck
I deserve respect; but I work a sweat for this worthless check
Bout to burst this tech, at somebody to reverse this debt
…
Cause we see them dollar signs and let the cash blind us
Money will brainwash you and leave your ass mindless
Snakes slither in the grass spineless
That’s Rock Bottom
When this life makes you mad enough to kill
That’s Rock Bottom
When you want something bad enough to steal
That’s Rock Bottom
When you feel you have had it up to here
Cause you mad enough to scream but you sad enough to tear
My life is full of empty promises
And broken dreams
I’m hoping things will look up
But there ain’t no job openings
Rock Bottom — Eminem