Topaz — B-52s
Topaz is a beautiful and somewhat rare mineral that comes in a variety of colors. Our housing market also has its somewhat rare counterpart: a 2003 rollback. We will see many, many more of these before this crisis has past, but for now, each one is duly noted as another milestone on our way to the bottom. If any of you have been following ocrenter’s blog at Bubble Market’s Inventory Tracking, you know he has been consistently calling for 2001 pricing at the bottom. Many properties in San Diego County are already at this price level. They were a year ahead of us on the way up, and they are also a year ahead of us on the way down. Assuming we do not have a collapse of incomes and rents in the upcoming recession, pricing in Irvine should bottom out at 2001/2002 price levels. There are downside risks if interest rates rise dramatically, or if foreclosures balloon out-of-control. We have been resting on price support at 2004 price levels for months now, but with the recession deepening, and the prime selling season behind us, prices may resume their downward decent.
Today’s featured property is owned by a HELOC abuser who borrowed every penny of equity as quickly as it accumulated. As many before him, he is leaving the bills for someone else to pay off.
Asking Price: $370,000
Income Requirement: $92,500
Downpayment Needed: $74,000
Monthly Equity Burn: $3,083
Purchase Price: $380,000
Purchase Date: 8/4/2003
Address: 169 Topaz, Irvine, CA 92602
| Beds: | 2 |
| Baths: | 2 |
| Sq. Ft.: | 1,200 |
| $/Sq. Ft.: | $308 |
| Lot Size: | – |
| Property Type | Attached, Condominium |
| Property Style: | Other (See Remarks) |
| Year Built: | 2001 |
| Stories: | 2 Level |
| County: | Orange |
| MLS#: | M08077585 |
| Source: | MRMLS |
| Status: | Active |
| On Redfin: | 160 days |
 Unsold in 90+ days
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condo located close to schools, shopping, freeways/toll roads, and
employment centers. Seller is very motivated to sell the property.
I call BS on that one. Why would the seller care anymore? There is no equity in the property, and unless he believes a short sale is somehow better for his credit, he should just let it go into foreclosure and enjoy the free lodging for a while.
Some HELOC abuse stories are more outrageous than others. This property is not a record for amount, but the owner certainly did not let any equity go unliberated.
- The property was purchased for $380,000 on 8/4/2003 for $380,000. The owner used a $304,000 first mortgage, a $38,000 second mortgage, and a $38,000 downpayment.
- On 8/31/2005 he refinanced with an Option ARM with a 1% teaser rate for $448,000. He also took out a $56,000 stand-alone second.
- On 3/12/2007 he refinanced again with a $480,000 first mortgage and a $120,000 stand-alone second.
- Total property debt is $600,000.
- Total mortgage equity withdrawal is $258,000 including his downpayment.
This borrower is the quintessential example of a kool aid intoxicated fool. An Option ARM with a 1% teaser rate? Taking mortgage debt from $342,000 to $600,000 in 4 years? Brilliant!
If this property sells if its asking price, and if a 6% commission is paid, the total loss to the lender will be $252,200.
If the appraisal used to obtain the $600,000 loan is accurate, this property is being offered for 38% off its peak appraised value. Quite a gem.
{book}
New cities by the sea
Skyscrapers are winking
Some hills are never seen
The universe expanding
We’re gazing out to sea
Blue dolphins are singing
Minds swim in ecstasy
Clear planet, ever free
Topaz
Our hearts are traveling faster,
Faster than the speed of love
Straight through a tear in the clouds
Up to the heavens above
Bright ships will sail the seas
Starfishes are spinning
Some hills are never seen
Our universe is expanding
Moonrise upon the sea
Starships are blinking
We’ll walk in ecstasy
Clear planet blue and green
Topaz — B-52
Honestly, topaz isn’t all that rare. It is often heat treated to change the color or painted with other chemicals to give it some exotic look like “Mystic Topaz”.
In other words, it is the perfect gem to characterize the mortgage mess: cheap crap painted up to look like something valuable.
that is a comment quite worthy of being called ‘an astute observation.’
Ha ha ha…good one.
“Assuming we do not have a collapse of incomes and rents in the upcoming recession…”
Just leased a 1540 sq ft house in Northwood for $2250 ($250 below asking price). The neighboring sales have not been more than 20% below peak (about 2004 pricing) so I decided to enjoy life a couple years before buying. Apartment life with noisy neighbors got to me. I had hoped 2009 would have been a good time to buy but there is still too much Kool Aid sloshing around, especially in more desireable areas of Northwood.
Do you think you got such a good price because the owner’s desperate? i.e. Is it possible the owner has an exotic mtg and might stop paying it while you’re leasing the home?
That would be my only concern.
Speaking of $250,000 I think that’s what this place should be…
This blog used to get lots of comments like this… i think this place should sell for —–.
Then these comments kinda dried up.
I wonder if we will see an upturn in price predictions.
I don’t want to ursurp the discussion, but I wonder what Jesse and Al are going to do now that the case for race pimping just got much, much weaker.
Maybe they can become mortgage brokers…
Given the way Jesse and AL both trashed Obama in the early days of his campaign, I’d say that these guys will both become even more irrelavent to most African-Americans than they already were.
The run of African-Americans that I personally know, which number quite a few dozen, have zilch respect for these two losers. They seem not to speak to or for the vast majority of African Americans anymore.
I hear ya…did you see Jesse crying on TV last nite? Probably just wanted to get on camera.
Did it ever occur to you that in spite of the great personal animosity between Jesse Jackson and Barack Obama, that perhaps, just perhaps, that Jesse might have been crying because this is something that he dedicated his life to, and fought his whole life to see?
Don’t forget, Jesse Jackson was literally standing right next to MLK when King took one to the head in Memphis. That might, perhaps, have affected him just a little bit. Maybe, just maybe, last night was kind of a big deal to him.
Actually, Jesse Jackson was NOT “standing right next to MLK when he took a bullet…” He was in a completely different room in the same hotel and ran into the room after MLK was already dead.
You said it.
“Maybe, just maybe..”
Nope. Not possible. Jesse Jackson is a shakedown artist.
What would be interesting is to see what the required income for the first mortage and what the required income would be for the outstanding balance.
Using a simple 3x income for instance.
For the first loan the required income after down payment would be about $114K for the outstanding balance it would be about $200k.
Obviously the owners income did not increase by 86k per year or they wouldn’t be in this mess.
If I were the owner I would chain myself to my home and call up the local news.
I have a feeling there is going to be a vast social gulf between those who indulged in the orgy of borrowing, and are left with it’s scars, and those who didn’t. Will there be a culture of people moving and changing their identities to evade debt? Will there be an entire segment of employment devoted to tracking them down and getting something from them? How many people will be in bankruptcy at the same time? And the effect on families? One day, a middle-class Shangri-la, the next a cheap room, or maybe the car.
Those of us not involved in this will be marginalised. We will be subjected to the endless tales, a litany of objects bought and lost.
Will they set marks for themselves? Will they swear that, by God, they will have granite countertops again one day?
And what we will, the walking unindebted, have to contribute? Nothing. Nervous will be the new “cool”. Relative financial security will be looked on as a kind of obesity, and it won’t be long before studies show it’s related to heart attack and diabetes. Oh, it already is? Sorry, just musing.
Are you kidding? Democrat or Republican in office, the minute these bunch of self-entitled losers start crying about how they lost their homes, lost their cars, might lose all of their stuff, the government will rush to their rescue with some kind of financial package. And those of us who played nice all along get to help pay for it.
ULESS…..
We yell and scream long enough and loud enough that our Congress and our President listen. If they think they have a significant number of votes to lose, maybe they’ll at least modify their legislation.
duh, meant UNLESS
I don’t understand the “scars”
Anyone who’s already spent this money on other things will just leave the house to the bank, rent a place somewhere and continue with their life.
These “poor, poor” people caught up in all this will just go back to being rentals, keep all their toys and vacation memories while WE the tax payer bailout the loans.
Sounds pretty good to me…I only wish I would have bought and HELOC’d during this gold rush.
Not only that, but they’ll be better off – meaning, at least their balance sheet and cash flow should improve by having a rental payment less than the total housing ownership cost.
“You are what you owe” will become the way to define yourself.
“Seller is very motivated to sell the property.” It bears repeating again.
As we count the remaining proposition votes, let’s take a look at the real numbers. There are over 36 million Californians alive today. Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_population
Using standard statistics, that means there are approximately 3.6 million Californians that could be affected by Proposition 8 passing. Conservatively assuming that they all decide to marry another Californian, that is about 1.8 million marriages that will, if proposition 8 sticks, go outside of California. Not including the honeymoon, but presuming a modest ceremony, guest travel, and party total cost for a low-guest-count marriage of about $10,000 that comes to:
$18 Billion dollars leaving California.
All in one shot this generation, also not including second marriages. Although this might seem like a low number to some of you mathematicians in the audience, whichever way you slice the equation, this is still a significant amount of revenue that California could lose to Massachusetts, Canada, most of Europe, Asia, etc.
In the interest of full disclosure, and for the sake of the Californian economy, I voted no on 8.
–And to put the numbers in perspective, $18 Billion is enough to build _two_ completely separate bullet train systems between Southern and Northern California.
Can you name one country in Asia that has legal same sex marriage? A country in Europe? I didn’t think so…
But, I did vote No on Prop. 8 as well.
Asia? Not that I know of. But the Netherlands was the first in 2001, and Spain was the first in 2005 to make it fully legal under the exact same status and terminology. (by legistlative action no less)
So yes, California is behind the times not the bleeding edge.
And Germany!
While you may have an axe to grind by inflating the number of gays, the 10% figure you quote from the Kinsey report’s estimate is considered too high.
Better estimates are 3-6% for men with a lower prevalence in women.
Just setting the record straight (no pun intended)
alan, you may be right but I agree in principle with Hard_Numbers…our state could use all the $$ it can get…
But, now that Prop. 8 has passed, most gays won’t have the opportunity to be miserable like the rest of us married folks…lol…j/k
Boy, was that off-topic! Can we bury Prop 8 finally and move on? Who gives a frick about stats! We already know – and you know we know – what’s going to take place. It will go to the courts, all the way to the Supreme Court and will be rejected. Gays win on the civil liberties argument and that will be that.
Back to the original topic at hand…. thanks IR for the other Blog info. I gotta keep an eye on what San Diego is doing… wow!
Just because someone is from California (or marries a Californian) doesn’t mean they will get married in California.
Also there is a myth (some say perpetuated by the liberal media some say) that 10% of people are gay and its wrong…the average statistics of the main studies that have been done say about 4.1% of males and 2.0% female.
http://www.familyresearchinst.org/FRI_AIM_Talk.html
Wait… first of all, 10%??? PUH-LEEZE-
Second of all, that is 10% of every man, woman and child in CA., right? Are they all really eligible/likely to marry in the next year?
Well, I guess if marriage to whomever I want is a “civil right” then I can marry a nine-year old or a horse or two or four 14-year-olds or WHOEVER right?
I mean by God if they’re old enough to decide to get an abortion without parental notification or input they’re certainly old enough to marry me, right?
Anyways that was informative.
I have a better one that’s actually based in reality.
Take the 5000 highest- paid families/couples/individuals in California and increase their tax rates a million a piece. Like you would even if they only made $2 or 3 million a year, which actually isn’t too rare.
As a result they leave or set up a shelter in another state/country (it’s EASY!!!)
How much has the state lost?
CORRECT!!!
$5 billion!!! Which was exactly how much the deficit was last year!
CONCLUSION: Save the millionaires save the world. Or state, anyways.
And that’s REAL, homie!!!
Not sure who the fool is……I didnt buy and invested my extra money in securities. I stayed away from financials and anything related to construction…In the end it didn’t matter. Now I am down a large percentage and it will take years to make the money back.
At least this guy got a free 300K
Sure my credit would be trashed, but by the time I re-earn all the money that wall street has taken there will be plenty of willing lenders.
This is an interesting point that I have also pondered. If you resisted the urge to buy and instead put your savings in the stock market, your account is now worth 20%-30%+ less depending on where you invested. Would it have been better to overpay for a house and take the hit on the property value? Probably not, because if your house is now worth 20% less then your down payment money has essentially disappeared, but if you lost 20% to 30% of your savings in the market decrease then you still have 70% to 80% of it!
But….your downpayment money has purchased 100% of an asset, which still has value and will appreciate…eventually just like securities.
To be honest, I think the stock market has fallen by a larger percentage then real estate from its highs.
Everything I was invested in: commodities, video games, energy, and emerging markets has taken between a 40%-80% dive over the last couple of months. That’s a much larger loss than real estate has taken.
The difference is that I expect my stocks to recover over the next few years. I can’t say the same for real estate; illiquid assets swing much slower. Then again, my investment record as of late isn’t exactly what I’d define as stellar.
You may want to check out this blog and the comments. They expect a 30-40% additional decline in equities and seem to be people who know as good as any. Similar predicted by Nouriel Roubini who is a top economist that predicted the current downturn.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
You could hedge your bets by keeping your quality stocks that you don’t think are going to backrupt in the coming depression and go short with the rest using ETF’s like EEV or SDS…
Hopefully you can stop investing (gambling) with your gut and common sense. That has cost me a lot over the years so I hope I’m getting the right info. now.
Thanks for the advice. I’ll check it out, it sounds familiar…
I pared my losses with ultrashort ETFs to about half. Still hurts like hell though.
Some of us astute observers realized that similar forces of leverage were driving up both stock and real estate valuations. I got out before the crash, and was mostly out a year before.
It’s wild watching the prices of the assets I might buy go down by 40-50%. Depending on how you view it, it’s like a massive real rate of return.
I looked at these places a few years ago. Strange layouts and really close to the toll road. Plus, no IUSD.
Is it just me, or does San Diego always seem to be a leading indicator for the real estate market in Orange County? I have no evidence to back this up, but I remember during the run up that San Diego seemed to be leading the way.
Anyone else agree or disagree?
I don’t know if it always has been, but it has since 2000.
Totally OT, but I just can’t help myself – I’d like to dedicate Obama’s victory to Kirk and ShinyAD. Two class acts. Nobody deserves what’s coming more that you guys!
Some interesting charts on San Diego and La Jolla.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20081102-9999-1h02peak.html
This place is nothing but a 2 bedroom apartment. It’s way overpriced.
Let me get out my checkbook. That’s a great price for a two bedroom pre-forclosure.
WHATEVER.
Ref: “Assuming we do not have a collapse of incomes and rents in the upcoming recession…”
Rent-collapse is already here. Significant exodus in Quali Hill out of IAC apartments and into bigger/cheaper QH private-party rents. Nobody seems to be worrying about “maybe the house will be foreclosed and I’ll get booted”.
San Diego not OC. San Diego has a huge transient Navy population which is highly inflationary.
Not at all clear that the upturn will occur at “own = rent” prices. Barriers to “mortgage approval” are significant (actually getting worse as the pool of “quality people” dries up).
Nope. Not possible. Jesse Jackson is a shakedown artist
Please send me the bill for anything Jackson shook you down for. I’ll pay it, every cent.
And let me mention please, that you are a premeir shithead.
I GUARANTEE that your money would generate maximum returns by buying AR-15 parts, especially the lowers. GUARANTEE.
And you better get ’em soon as the price is rising VERY rapidly!!!
Ref: “Investing in AR-15 parts”. Brilliant! Yesterday I was at a gun shop in Ridgecrest, bought a .22 rifle and some 9mm ammo. All gun shops booming!! “Hottest sellers” (parts) are 30-round magazines for semi-auto rifles. “Combat” style auto-pistols also scarce.
YEWS Paul P
Long after Bernankebucks and bullion have lost their glitter 22LR will be the universal currency-
Now got to Prado and get some practice-