Burning Down the House — The Talking Heads
Today’s featured property is a very rare find in Irvine — a vacant lot on which you can do what you want. You wouldn’t have total freedom, this is still Irvine, and you would have to deal with the Turtle Rock HOA, but you would not have to deal with the Irvine Company or one of its approved builders. You could create a custom home exactly the way you want it, without having to buy an existing house and demolish it. Our challenge today is to figure out what this lot is worth.
Asking Price: $549,900
Income Requirement: Depends on Structure
Downpayment Needed: $549,900
Address: 19441 Sierra Chula Road, Irvine, CA 92603
| Beds: | 4 |
| Baths: | 2 |
| Sq. Ft.: | 1,796 |
| $/Sq. Ft.: | $306 |
| Lot Size: | 5,940
Sq. Ft. |
| Property Type: | Single Family Residence |
| Style: | Cape Cod |
| Year Built: | 1970 |
| Stories: | 2 Levels |
| View: | City Lights, City |
| Area: | Turtle Rock |
| County: | Orange |
| MLS#: | P635243 |
| Source: | SoCalMLS |
| Status: | Active |
| On Redfin: | 46 days |
IS A VACANT LOT. THE STRUCTURE WAS LOST DUE TO THE FIRE LAST YEAR.
First, a refresher on how to value a lot from Land Value 101:
Individual Lots
The market value of a individual lot is equal to the revenue it
could generate minus the cost of creating that revenue. Sounds simple
enough, but what is the potential revenue and what are the costs?
Sales revenue will largely be determined by what can be built on the
lot and how much that house would sell for in the market. The
dimensions of the lot, building codes, and the local zoning ordinances
will all create constraints on what can be built. Most often there will
be some variety in choices available to construct on a given lot. Each
of these options will have a potential revenue and an estimated cost.
The combination which yields the greatest profit is the product that
should be built.
Imagine a 6,000 Square Foot lot that is 60′ wide by 100′ deep. A
typical lot such as this would have a front setback of 20′, side
setbacks of 5′, and a rear setback of 30′ leaving a 50′ wide by 50′
deep envelope for the house foundation. This site could comfortably
accommodate a 2,000 SF house (some area is lost by not making the house
a perfect rectangle.) For the sake of making the calculations easy,
let’s say this house could sell for $1,000,000 (peak prices).
An individual speculator would be paying retail prices for house
construction. This would be upwards of $150 SF. The cost of
construction would be around $300,000 (2000 * 150 = $300,000.) There
would be a 6% sales commission (1,000,000 * 0.06 = $60,000), plus
financing costs, overhead costs, and other miscellaneous costs which
will add up to about 10% of the project cost (1,000,000 * 0.1 =
$100,000.)
Therefore,
your revenue minus expenses would be $1,000,000 – $60,000 – $100,000 –
$300,000 = $540,000. This is how much money would be available to pay
for a lot at the breakeven point. Since a speculator would want to make
a profit, the lot is discounted from $540,000 until an amount is
reached to compensate for the risk and the headaches that go along with
the project.
Perhaps the speculator would want to make $120,000 (approximately
12% of sales price) in order to do this work? If so, the speculator
would be able to offer $420,000 ($540,000 – $120,000 = $420,000) for
the lot. If they are the highest bidder, they get the lot, and the
project is theirs. (BTW, this same basic calculation also works for
tear-down projects — often called “scrapers.”)
.
Interesting that the example above written almost a year ago is so close to what a buyer would be dealing with on today’s featured property.
To value this lot, the first task is to estimate the final value of the property after the structure is built. IMO, Turtle Rock will hit bottom near $250/SF, maybe $275/SF for a typical 2,000 SF home like the one that could be fit on this lot. New construction might command a premium of $25/SF, but not much more. That would put the final value near $500,000. Of that, $300,000 is going to go for construction of the house. Since this would be an owner-occupant, the remainder could go toward land making this lot worth about $200,000. Of course, you might want to put a larger house on this lot, and that might justify a higher lot price, but the old structure was only 1,796 SF, so a smaller structure might be in order. I suspect the surrounding neighborhood probably averages about 2,000 SF.
The interesting thing about this calculation is that you see just how sensitive the price of the lot is to the price of the house that sits on it. The $549,900 asking price might be warranted in today’s market as houses are still going for $900,000 in the area. As nearby prices fall, the value of this lot will fall right along with them. The difference being, there isn’t much of a floor beneath lot prices. If house prices in Turtle Rock fall $400,000 in this area, so with the value of this lot. If this lot doesn’t sell soon, it may only be worth $150,000 a couple of years from now. If you don’t believe the price of lots can drop that much, I can tell you that lots in Riverside County already have. Finished lots are going for less than replacement cost there. When you are stuck with an asset nobody wants, the price is only what some buyer is willing to pay. With speculative real estate, that isn’t very much right now.
If you really want to drink the kool aid, buy this lot. You will get every dollar of the change in prices in the surrounding neighborhood — up or down, and you wouldn’t have to deal with renters, maintenance, or other issues associated with the “box.” Of course, few lenders will loan money on something like this, so you would probably have to do it with your own cash. At the bottom when they are going for $150,000, finished lot deals like this one will be the real “home runs” of the next speculative real estate cycle.
.
Watch out
You might get what youre after
Cool babies
Strange but not a stranger
Im an ordinary guy
Burning down the house
Hold tight wait till the partys over
Hold tight were in for nasty weather
There has got to be a way
Burning down the house
Heres your ticket pack your bag: time for jumpin overboard
The transportation is here
Close enough but not too far, maybe you know where you are
Fightin fire with fire
All wet
Hey you might need a raincoat
Shakedown
Dreams walking in broad daylight
Three hun-dred six-ty five de-grees
Burning down the house
It was once upon a place sometimes I listen to myself
Gonna come in first place
People on their way to work baby what did you except
Gonna burst into flame
My house
Sout of the ordinary
Thats might
Dont want to hurt nobody
Some things sure can sweep me off my feet
Burning down the house
No visible means of support and you have not seen nuthin yet
Everythings stuck together
I dont know what you expect starring into the tv set
Fighting fire with fire
Burning Down the House — The Talking Head
My first inclination was 150-200k. Thanks for the analysis. Prices are really crazy out there.
http://www.crackthecode.us/images/TurtlePower.jpg
Priceless.
The tax assessment of $186,000 is pretty close then.
IR,
So you think this pocket of Turtle Rock still needs to fall nearly 45% ($900k to $500k) to find a bottom?
Backs right up to Culver. The original home burned down in a fire.
Are these obvious feng shui problems which would eliminate some asians from the potential buyer pool?
Thank you for the thoughtful analysis.
We considered and rejected that street in 2003.
Culver is now 4 lanes there, on a significant grade, with a 55mph limit, i.e. high traffic noise. A huge and hideous new private school building complex looms from a hill 200 yards away. At night, the backyard is brightly lit by huge traffic lights controlling the Culver/Shady Canyon intersection.
Comparables should include only nearby homes backing up to the highway. This area is not as peaceful as the rest of Turtle Rock.
Hello All –
Is a 30yr fixed really in the %7.53 range?
http://www.bankrate.com/
What kind of financing can you get for a simple lot?
BD
NONE” for the most part, however some lenders have been known to loan 50 % on vacant landl, but don’t count on it…
If a house on this lot would sell for $1mm (or whatever), the lot would sell for between $280k-$350k.
The rule of thumb in residential construction is 28-35% of final sales price. However, the 28-35% is used for a finished lot, ready to go, with curbs, gutter, light, permits, entitlements, etc.
An average builder builds to a 8-12% margin. A builder would underwrite to a 12% margin today, given the slow market.
There’s no way this lot is worth $540k if houses sell for $1mm. Much less as housing prices fall.
Thanks IR. We learn something new here almost every day.
What is that thing that looks like a rock?
A rock?
I like the rock outcropping, and this would be an interesting place to build something with really interesting architecture.
But I’m afraid the nabes wouldn’t approve of what I’d like to build.
I’d like to make a minature mockup of stonehenge.
That way when the aliens come down, they’ll know how to find irvine…
too funny 🙂
The rock in the picture is a bad view of the actual Turtle Rock that the community is named for. It is actually about 1/2 mile from this lot.
IIRC, you go straight up Campus, past Culver, and the “Rock” is in a park on your left hand side a few blocks up.
I never thought it looked like a turtle. It looks more like a giant Turtle Poop. Hey that’s what they should call the area, Turtle Poop.
I can remember when the Laguna Beach fires (was it ’92 or ’93?) ravaged parts of Turtle Poop. There were only a limited number of outlets in Turtle Poop that people could evacuate through as the fires approached. The news was showing both left and right hand lanes crammed with cars going the same direction – out.
It reminds me of the Phallic rock in Hawaii. 🙂
Gosh I really started something.
A typical ” delusion of limited perspective”. Remember there are virtually no hills in Florida, so to me this looked like a big rock on a small lot, not a really really big rock far away, with a valley inbetween. I was wondering why the rock hadn’t been smoothed away by the builders when they were preparing the lot for development. I was wondering if some piece of the house had melted down somehow. . .
Turtle Cock?
Sorry, I couldn’t hold back on that one.
Interesting continued downward trend on the Irvine inventory graph. Shows 857 units today, which is around 30% less than last year at the same time. If we go below 854 units, we’ll be at a 14-month low in available inventory…
May sales per DQ were down vs. last year around 30% as well, despite it being the strongest month in the last 6-7 in terms of sales volume, so it would appear our current inventory situation is very similar to a year ago in June.
Prices weren’t falling much last year at this time.
Latent supply
Answer:
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2006-08-07-close-san-francisco-usat_x.htm
The rock in the picture is Turtle Rock so named by early inhabitants of the area because it resembles a turtle… Halucinatory drugs probably helped that observation along a bit. Geez people, this the IHB and you don’t recognize possibly Irvine’s only natural landmark – Turtle Rock? 🙂
Hey, I’m from Florida.
Let’s see, the owner had a home. It was destroyed in a fire. The owner, who probably knows the property best, decided that it was NOT WORTH IT TO REBUILD.
I have no idea of the challenges of the property. But the owner did. And with their insurance money, they decided that the highest and best use of the property (that they know better than anyone else) is a vacant lot.
Any alarm bells going off? Hello — potential buyer — the prior owner took the insurance money and RAN! McFly? Anybody home? McFly?
Great post.
I’m a child of the 80s and love the original, but find myself spellbound by the irresistable Nina Perrson in this version.
Tom Jones Burnin’
SCHB
The lot is worth around $400K. Lots in Shady Canyon, the wealthy community to the south in turtle rock, go for around $450 per square foot.
This is sort of like buying a home but not having to deal with the home………I wonder if they would let me put my boat on the lot…….
If the surrounding homes are only worth 600k, the nasty un-asian lot is only worth 100k…tops.
PadreBrian = Ignorant
What is the best place to find an inventory of lots or land parcels in Irvine? I am very interested in buying a lot for a reasonable down market price in the next 12 months. I know these prices have a lot to fall further….but I would like to start doing my research so that in 12-18 months I can pounce on the right deal.
There are almost no lots available in Irvine. The Irvine Company only sells to production builders who build approved products. If you want to find a lot to build your own home on, you either have to find the rare lot like this one, or you have to buy an existing home and demolish it.
Of course, I’m not sure my neighbors would approve of my choice for green/clean living: ( http://www.mkd-arc.com/homes/glidehouse/index.php ) but I’d love to slide a 3-bedroom Glidehouse into that lot. I’m not materialistic and I do not own a lot of stuff, but I doubt it would stop nosy neighbors from constantly gawking into my house.
Ultimately, a 4-bedroom plan up on a hill would be a dream an absolute dream. Self-sufficent yet comfortable living.
Is it possible to buy the lot and not build anything on it just so you can use the address to send your child to Turtle Rock Elementary and University High? You can’t put a price on the value of a good education.
Rent the lot, pitch a tent, plant some corn :).
And, oh yeah, an extra $50 for a mailbox post so you can get a drivers licence with proof of address for the IUSD … 🙂
ROFL – Damn that’s a visual.
Can I put my double wide on this lot? No, it is not a trailer. It is pre-manufactured housing.
In Irvine putting a double-wide on a vacant lot is considered a felony.
I can just picture awgee when the cops come to arrest him for putting up the double-wide, making a run for it down Culver, toothless wife riding shotgun while the 8-track rocks out to the Dueling Banjos.
“Talk about genetic deficiencies. Isn’t that pitiful?”
You need to show utility bills in your name to enroll your kids in the Turtle Rock elementary schools and University High.
That sounds like discrimination to me.
What if you’re too poor to afford the electric and gas bill?
What if you’re an environmentalist and you build your new house to be completely powered by the sun and you get your water from the sky, use fire for heat, and a big hole in the ground for sewage?
What if the utility bills aren’t in your name because your family of seven rents a room from someone off the books?
What if you’re homeless and you live in an RV at the Turtle Rock Community Center?
How much this lot worth is all depend on who own this lot.
if IAC own this lot, this will change the zone and get permission to build a 20 floors high- rise, so basic is worth 100 million dollar.
If ordinary people own this lot, this trouble is just starting.
QQ
When Donald brought out IAC shares, who know changing zero is so easy.
he should pay double $ at that time.
Amazing, change zone same as call timeout at ending of fourth Q for some second Q play. And play for that point agian.
Sorry to get off topic but I thought others might get a laugh from the following listing.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/22-Farragut-92620/home/4779445
This home has decent square footage but is a tear down. Even the carpet looks like it is the original from the 70’s. At $311 per square foot, it is priced way above even this inflated but quickly deflating market.
What made me laugh? Well the property description notes that the “owner has a R/E license.” Instead of attracting the few buyers out in the market, this tells them to avoid this seller because he is likely more delusional than the typical seller (RE can only go up right?).
If there is no upside, then why would someone mention this? If I had a R/E license, I’d keep that in the closet. But I began wondering, did this crazy bubble create a sense that having gone through a “Make Your Fortune in Real Estate” seminar an accomplishment?
In Florida, I believe it is state law that a licensed agent disclose this to any possible buyer. It is quite possible this is the case in California as well.
cswusd,
Realtors are obligated by professional conduct and code to inform all parties that they have a license up front.
I dropped acid at “the” Turtle Rock back in the day, then wandered my way through Mason Park. Looks like the trend continues.
Would it be ok to back my double-wide (NOT on a permanent foundation) on it for awhile while I wait for prices to hit bottom?
200K is likely the bottom. This house was a Model 2 -like my original mansion. Most of the homes around were originally between 1600 to 2400 sq feet, with the median around 2000.
The listing is in error. This was a single story house, maybe split level but NOT two stories.
The price to rebuild something like the original house at 300K is likely on mark as construction costs have dropped too. However, if you were to rebuild today, you could easily do a nice 2600/3000 sq. foot on two floors.
Remember too that the cost may be higher because this will be consider a NEW home, not a remodel, which means you may have to start from the slab up.
looks like they took it off the market after seeing it appear on IHB…
Status
6/19/2008 11:52:31
ACT
CANCL
bleah, that was supposed to be a status change from ‘ACT’ to ‘CANCL’. sorry for the wacky formatting
I dont know where you guys are getting your numbers on construction costs. I really want to know how you can build a house for $150 sq ft. If you build anything in the TR area you cant get cheap. You are closer to $250-300 sq ft. I dont even think builders can build home for that price now.
Is that the ‘turtle rock’?! As a kid my family moved there in the early 70’s (up near Sierra Lisa). I remember the whole area was surrounded by cow pastures and a friend of mine was stranded on the turtle rock by an angry bull (or so he told us). At the time it was sad to see all the new communities eating away at the undeveloped hillsides. When I visited a few years ago I found it hard to believe that I was able to hear coyotes in those (thar) hills.