Sittin’ on a Fence — The Rolling Stones
We have profiled informal neighborhood cartels where a group of neighbors get together and set WTF asking prices. As with all cartels, they are unstable arrangements because each participant has an incentive to cheat at the expense of the others. Today’s featured property was one of two neighboring properties asking WTF prices. One of the two decided it was time to sell and lowered his price accordingly. The neighbor has got to be really angry as not just will the neighbor sell first, it will also set a comparable price that will make it nearly impossible for the other property to get its asking price. We are not talking about $5,000 or even $50,000, we are talking about $500,000!
Asking Price: $1,299,900
Income Requirement: $324,975
Downpayment Needed: $259,980
Monthly Equity Burn: $10,832
Purchase Price: $1,668,000
Purchase Date: 4/5/2006
Address: 9 Paso Robles, Irvine, CA 92602
| Beds: | 4 |
| Baths: | 5 |
| Sq. Ft.: | 4,335 |
| $/Sq. Ft.: | $300 |
| Lot Size: | 7,020
Sq. Ft. |
| Property Type: | Single Family Residence |
| Style: | Mediterranean |
| Year Built: | 2001 |
| Stories: | 2 Levels |
| Area: | Northpark |
| County: | Orange |
| MLS#: | S521077 |
| Source: | SoCalMLS |
| Status: | Active |
| On Redfin: | 123 days |
 Unsold in 90+ days
|
|
Located in one of the best areas of Irvine. Guard gared community.
Great family community & schools. This home offers 4335 sq ft with
an iron gated courtyard enterance. Boast a large sunny & tranquil
atrium. Gourment Kitchen 5 burner gas cook top, Butler’s Pantry. Huge
master Suite Featuring His/Her walk in Closets. 4 Large bedrooms each
with private bath. Huge bonus room. Main floor suite or office plus
seperate bedroom with walk in closet and private bath. Cozy Living room
with fireplace, formal dining, Kitchen, Seperate Casual Dining and
Family room with large fireplace. Features travertine floors. Perfect
Private backyard for entertaining. Built in BBQ, over sized covered
patio. 3 car tanden, Gym room or office. Close to Tustin and Irvine
Market Place, fwy & toll road.
Guard gared community? enterance? Gourment? seperate? tanden?
3 car tanden, Gym room or office. That could be read “tan den, gym room, or office.” It would be cool to have your own tanning bed den.
I am starting to wonder if realtors believe poor spelling and schizophrenic use of punctuation is a positive. It does make their listings stand out. If realtors believe all publicity is good publicity, they should continue writing like that so we will bring attention to their listings. Perhaps they do not mind that we ridicule them.
Wow! It comes with a Butler’s Pantry. I hope I get to use that graphic again 😉
This is a seller who knows how to lower his price to reach the market:
Listing Price History
| Date | Price |
| Feb 09, 2008 | $1,799,900 |
| Apr 18, 2008 | $1,599,900 |
| Jun 06, 2008 | $1,299,900 |
He has dropped his price $500,000 in two big drops. Compare that to his neighbor a 15 Paso Robles:
Listing Price History
| Date | Price |
| Mar 01, 2008 | $1,949,000 |
| Apr 12, 2008 | $1,888,800 |
| May 22, 2008 | $1,825,000 |
At the rate he is lowering the price, the property will sell in about 10 years. Based on the equity burn the market is dropping $11,000 to $18,000 a month. The $60,000 price drops will get there eventually, but since the market is at least $500,000 below his asking price today, it will take a very long time to catch up. Plus, if you remember the post Financing in a Declining Market, the new comparable sale will limit the financing. In short, for someone to buy 15 Paso Robles for asking price, they will need about $800,000 cash.
For the record, if the featured property sells for its asking price, and if they pay a 6% commission, the total loss on the property will be $446,094. It looks as if the owner is going to take a significant equity loss. There is a refinance for $1,334,000, but I see no other HELOCs or second mortgages. Of the $446,094 total loss, $334,000 came out of the owner’s pocket. I guess the WAMU can breathe easy, they will only lose $112,094 on this one.
When you see losses like that, does it inspire you to keep sitting on the fence? The knife catcher that buys this place will probably lose a similar amount. With those dollar figures, they really are a chainsaw catcher…
.
Since i was young i’ve been very hard to please
And i don’t know wrong from right
But there is one thing i could never understand
Some of the sick things that a girl does to a man, so
I’m just sittin’ on a fence
You can say i got no sense
Trying to make up my mind
Really is too horrifying
So i’m sittin on a fence
All of my friends at school grew up and settled down
And they mortgaged up their lives
One things not said too much, but I think it’s true
They just get married cause there’s nothing else to do, so
I’m just sittin’ on a fence
You can say i got no sense
Trying to make up my mind
Really is too horrifying
So i’m sittin on a fence
I’m just sittin’ on a fence
You can say i got no sense
Trying to make up my mind
Really is too horrifying
So i’m sittin on a fence
The day can come when you get old and sick and tired of life
You just never realize
Maybe the choice you made wasn’t really right
But you go out and you don’t come back at night, so
i’m just sittin’ on a fence
You can say i got no sense
Trying to make up my mind
Really is too horrifying
So i’m sittin on a fence
Sittin’ on a Fence — The Rolling Stone
I have to admit, I think the house at 15 Paso Robles is nicer – but not 526K nicer!
Perhaps, but they are very close comparables. They are nearly the same size, and according to the map, they are two doors down from each other. Personally, from the outside, I think 15 Paso Robles looks like an ugly box. The interior is beautiful though.
$300/sf at a desirable Northpark location, it should invite aggressive bidding from the prospective buyers on the side line. That is, if there are still those people who make more than $300k and ready to bite.
300/sf, bidding war??? Has anyone let George8 know its not 2005 anymore? Maybe there will be a bidding war when this place is 600,000…Maybe
I hope someone here stays on top of the upcoming “bidding war” that is sure to begin soon on this property and lets us all know how that plays out 😉
I’d be pissed as Hell if my listing agent left all those spelling errors in the MLS. But then, hey, maybe it works as the buyer “discovers” this property and unsophisticated buyer willing to “give the place away” at a half million dollar discount.
In the first property, there are limited pix and the ones of the interior seem to indicate that the property has been abandoned. No one wants this place any more. If the bidders fail to show up then perhaps the actual price could slip even more.
The secondary property is highly upgraded and tricked out. Someone had a lot of fun and interest in getting all the details put together for this showcase place. I was impressed by the home theater seating that I saw. But then had to laugh at a different angle of it. 3 home theater seats on a throw rug in front of a small flat screen. Looks like the funds started running low before this little project could be completed “right”
THE SECOND LISTING WAS DONE IN ALL CAPS AND HAS THREE *** ASTERISKS*** AS A LEAD-IN TO THE DESCRIPTION.
Both listings are by agents who are NOT asian. So those particular ESL(English as a Second Language learner) folks are off the hook this time around.
You are too kind to let the new immigrants off the hook so easily. ESL is for those who are attracted to the S. Cal. from all over the world – Asian or not:-)
Matthew Ingalls, agent for 15 Paso, speaks very good english and usually produces high quality stuff. I have never heard of the agent on 9 Paso.
Yea, IMHO, Matthew Ingalls ONLY represents himself, not buyer or seller.
I told to him a few times but not very imprssed.
Reading his selling/buying profolio, maybe you can find that he can represents a buyer and paying a much higher prices but at the same time he is a seller agent of another house with same model and that house just sold for much lower prices.
That means he just try to make both end.
IMO, he is best performance agent in NP area. He sould do a better job than that. NOT just for $.
“Both listings are by agents who are NOT asian.”
Given the horrible grammar, and bad spelling, it must have been a dumb white bimbo on vicodin.
snicker.
Hey now, arrogant white guys spell just as badly. Any realtor male or female has an equal chance of being dumb. Let’s not just insult the women, okay?
For the sake of political correctness, please use “mimbo/bimbo” in future posts.
That would be “himbo”.
I used to work for Homes.com, and one of the company’s main functions at this time was to set up site hosting for realtors. Not only would I hear conversations between the customer service reps and our customers, but I’d see some of the letters we’d received from pleased and unhappy realtors about our products and services. I’ve become convinced that most realtors moved into real estate because they were too stupid to get an MBA, and lower than that I can’t get. I kept asking myself “How the hell do you get through four years of college and still not be able to tell the difference between “there”, “their”, and “they’re”?
Wait a second, you mean the realtors themselves don’t put together those sites?
/saracasm off.
So, has that segment of business (i.e., setting up websites for realtors) tanked? I’d be interested to know where you were located, when the business formed, how the bubbly years were, and then the pink-slip phase.
Some good press for the IHB:
http://www.pionline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080609/PRINTSUB/161003060/1031/TOC
“For example, one blog that Mr. Miller’s team has followed is the Irvine Housing Blog. “I learned more about the (U.S.) housing crisis from the Irvine Housing Blog than (from some of) the high-priced broker reports,” Mr. Miller said. “What may be unconnected, seemingly unimportant facts at first, can be used to build a mosaic that becomes quite valuable.””
Good times, IR…
Congrats!
Nice
Woo Hoo ! Germany in the house !
Some see blogs as complementing — if not competing with — Wall Street research. Gunnar Miller, managing director and global co-head of research at RCM Capital Management LLC based in Frankfurt, Germany, said blogs’ advantage, especially the independent ones, is that they may contain thought-provoking information not available elsewhere.
For example, one blog that Mr. Miller’s team has followed is the Irvine Housing Blog. “I learned more about the (U.S.) housing crisis from the Irvine Housing Blog than (from some of) the high-priced broker reports,” Mr. Miller said. “What may be unconnected, seemingly unimportant facts at first, can be used to build a mosaic that becomes quite valuable.”
Mr. McCormick agreed, saying blogs can provide “additional information to support your investment hypothesis.”
“(Blog information) gives you a way to add more color to your understanding,” Mr. Miller said, “and can allow for an efficient way of putting your ear to the ground.”
First. when you are asking so many dollars for your place I think more photos are in order. I definitely think the second place has a warmer look but I do love the feel of the kitchen in both-I would pay $800,000 cash today if it got me in a better part of the Irvine School District.
I guess I am partial to 9 Paseo Robles I am good with painting and colors that is what it needs from the few pics that were in the listing.
We really want to move but this blog has me really feeling like waiting would be definitely worth it and if we can’t wait we should rent!
Thanks for such a great read every AM!
And I have always been irritated by bad spelling must be the private schooling-but come on! Maybe I can afford Irvine if I get a job as a proofer! :vampire:
I would review your own post before you take that job as a proofer…
the spelling was fine…it was the lack of punctuation that needed some proofing. But she never claimed that bad punctuation bothered her. :smirk:
Bad punctuation should bother her if she wants to do that line of work for a living…
🙂
Come on punctuation is so 20th century all it does is slow down your reading skillz by breaking up your concentration instead we all should start using the new english for the 21st century with no punctuation and no sentence structure thereby increasing your concentration and your reading level
Buying these houses wouldn’t put you in a better part of the Irvine School District… These homes are serviced by Tustin Unified.
Psst, I see empty houses…
So, where did the people go?
lighting, staging and lived in makes a difference doesn’t it.
I actually like the empty houses, but I am always looking for a bargain. I run from the dressed up houses, especially upgrades and rehabs, because that means the seller is going for the top dollar.
You know, a million dollars isn’t what it used to be, and these houses are very nice, but you still have to pay the property tax on a million dollar house. And look at that burn rate, wow.
http://www.crackthecode.us/images/highlysought2.jpg
It always amazes me that there are so many gated communities in Irvine. The city already has a very low crime rate, and it is not because of the gates. If you take a bunch of high wage earning people (they won’t steal from each other) and police it heavily to prevent theft from outsiders, and you will have a low crime rate. I suppose as long as mortgage fraud is not prosecuted, we should continue to have a low crime rate.
There is a little bit of this in Phoenix and northern Tucson as well. It’s incredibly annoying. Everytime a friend comes over they have to stop at the gate and check-in with Mickey Mouse.
You would expect to encounter this in crummy areas of town, but certainly not in an area where the most common crime is defrauding investors/shareholders/mortgage companies.
It’s all about the facade of making the mark “feel” like he is incredibly important.
The HOA has to do something to justify the $1524/yr dues. The incredibly high HOA dues in OC much support quite an industry, real or pseudo.
**must**
“but certainly not in an area where the most common crime is defrauding investors/shareholders/mortgage companies.”
LOL!!!
For apartment complexes, it makes it harder to sell drugs out of your unit. At least that’s my observation after moving to Irvine after a couple years in a complex in Costa Mesa that went to shit.
Otherwise, I agree, it has more downside than upside.
It always amazes me that “gated community” is a selling point. There are too many paranoid people.
For me, a gate is just a hassle. You always have to carry your remote to get in. You have to give special instructions to people to come and visit, etc.
Most gates have codes you can enter to gain access if you don’t have your remote. On the more common newer gate hardware, it is usually key-key than a four digit number…
I have a few of them memorized for apartment complexes (they don’t seem to ever change) so I can utilize their dumpsters after my DIY activities.
Hell is a gated community.
I’ve seen more pictures of Heavenly gates than Hellish ones.
Gated communities are for people who don’t want friends.
I lived in Newport Beach for 10 years, and there, the main reason for the guards was to keep out ‘the out of towners’ or ‘inlanders’. Where I lived was not guarded, but the neighborhood across the street was. We never had a problem with crime, but parking and congestion were problems. The gated community did not suffer from these problems. Dealing with this situation was a pain and part of the reason for moving.
Not sure if this is a problem in Irvine, but I am considering buying in Irvine and after what I went though in Newport, it makes me look favorably on a gated community.
I live in a gated community. It works well in our case. It really is for more privacy than security if the general area is free from crime.
These pictures always crack me up. 😆 Thanks for posting them. I love the top-notch Photoshop work in this one!
Cheaper rent coming to a city near you. This cannot be good news for the bulls.
Looks like all those bottom calls based upon rent equivs are going to need to be re-evaluated.
I suppose this also takes some wind out of the sails for the “many people competing for a place to live” theory.
http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2008/06/10/big-oc-apartment-complexes-see-rents-dropping/
I would love if IR did an analysis of how the housing bubble & crash affects the rental market.
It sure seems like I’ve been seeing a lot more “For Rent” and “For Lease” signs in front of houses the past year. Is it just my imagination? How does the market crash affect the rent market? Whether you are renting or owning, don’t you have to live somewhere? Are people just giving up and moving out of So Cal? Were houses not for rent as often 2 years ago because people were buying and selling and moving more often, so even though a house was empty, the owner had an expected plan for the empty house (live in it, sell it, remodel it, sit on it and watch it appreciate)?
Is Northpark in Irvine? That’s like half way to Moreno Valley.
The very few times I’ve ventured that far on surface streets was because I got lost going to the Marketplace. Otherwise I’ve been on the Toll Road going somewhere inland and wondering who the hell would live way out there in those boonies.
It gets hot and smoggy over there. And cold in the winter. If I’m gonna go inland I’d rather go to D-Land or some good japanese/korean restaurant. And they don’t have any interesting food in that part of the world.
A 1.2 mil house that should be 700k. This real estate crash has a long way to go.
1.3 million?
No way. I don’t care how many random caps the realtor throws in the listing, that place isn’t worth anywhere near that much money.
The adventures of Random caps Realtor. I like it.
I believe Irvine housing market will drop another 20% (that’s why we sold our two houses and rent now).
But this house at least worth 1.2 million, even after orchard hills start selling.
At current market condition, it can be sold for i.4 million easily.
Beg to differ, there’s no such thing as an “easy” sale over $1 Mil. That’s an oxymoron like military intelligence. Your still drinking that koolaide.
My wife and I saw some places being sold with a sign that said, “from the low $1 millions.” We both laughed because we don’t believe there is such a thing as LOW $1 millions.
Like someone buying a million dollar house is out looking for bargain deals on K-Mart signs scattered around the roadways.
As I have learned this week during my condo sale prep, the minimum term one can obtain furnishings for is likely two months. That would be from Brook Furniture. Most staging companies, along with Cort, will hit you up for a 3-month minimum contract.
It would probably cost $15K to stage a house of that size using the estimate for my condo as a guide. Not exactly cheap, but for a place like that, should pay for itself easily…
Is that a transformer peeking out over the top of the garage?
Doesn’t really matter what they ask…
The number of homes over $1Mil in OC that sell every month is very limited while the number of homes asking over $1Mil is getting larger, hence the inventory of $1Mil homes was over 20 months supply the last time I saw the number.
These people are chasing a very small buyer pool.
I still don’t understand why large houses have so many bathrooms.
Because you don’t want to be too far from one when you need it 🙂
Wow, talk about taking it in the shorts. $450k loss…that’s going to leave a mark.
If I was spending that kind of money, I would want to be within IUSD boundaries at the very least.
If it was me, for $1.3 mil I would want at least a lot of 15,000 sq ft, be on the water or have a nice view. This house has none of these.
Good graphics today.
This is the first time I have seen the bear butler.
The chainsaw is a great addition.
http://www.crackthecode.us/images/ButlerDog.jpg
It comes with a stuffed butler teddy bear??!!!
SOLD!!!
[b]My Offer[/b]
After giving this property a thorough look, my offer today is [b]$524,100.00[/b]. I believe this is what this property is worth.
Double that and you’d be closer to the truth…
ipoplaya
2008-06-12 11:07 AM
“Double that and you’d be closer to the truth”
Maybe, but it seems that the truth is a moving target. What is true today will not be true a month from now.
Picfight….Bingo!
This house is above average. It is going to command significantly more than median income.
Assuming the Irvine median family income is 100K, this home seems appropriately suited toward family income in the 175K range which puts the value of the house at 700K.
Down payment of 140K seems reasonable, leaves mortgage balance of 560K.
30 year fixed rate mortgage payment on 560K is in the ballpark of 3700.00 per month. Add 127.00 in association dues plus extra expenses and figure out the door payment in the neighborhood of 4000.00 per month.
175K yearly income paid out bi-weekly is about 4850.00 post-taxes every 2 weeks. This leaves an additional 5700.00 cover the rest of the non-housing family expenses and put away some into savings.
Seems reasonable. However, if you are depending on 2 people with a 90K salary to make payments on this place and someone loses a job – you are not going to last very long without a decent savings cushion.
Right now it’s a game of musical chairs. The chairs are buyers and the people are sellers. There are twice as many people as chairs. After we’re down to one chair, there will be a panic brawl with those remaining to get a chair. Capitulation and severe price drops.
I’ve wondered if it’s always fair to do these computations based on $0 equity. If not, what is a reasonable amount of equity to assume?
It’s not assuming 0 equity. It assumes the buyer enters the game with 140K on the table.
Sorry, you are absolutely correct. What I meant to say was “extra” money above and beyond the 20% (say due to selling another house at a profit + savings).
Perhaps leaving it at 20% is reasonable and for most this is the difficult part of the transaction. However, I am looking to refute the bulls assertion that many buyers will have extra equity because they bought before the bubble, didn’t drink the refinance/heloc koolaid, and will be competing with first time home buyers who “only” have the 20%.
Or it could be people who saved up extra or got an inheritance, etc. Sure it’s clean assuming 20% because the rest has to be paid by income which generally can be measured using median incomes, but I guess even that has flaws (interest income from a large savings account, etc. could boost it).
I guess what I’m looking to understand is what is the typical profile of buyers looking for say a property just like this. If it’s always the guy who has just 20% and enough income to pay the mortgage, then fine. But if it’s more typically (or at least not uncommonly) the guy who has 40% down but less income, the pool of potential buyers seemingly increases (but maybe not by much).
Note to everyone out there. Now 15 Paso Robles is how you stage & photo a house. Note the wide-angle lens? Note the angle on the pics as well. Note the light. Note the sparse but impeccably placed furniture. Now, that’s how you photo a house. Now all they need to do is bring that PPQF down below 300.
Irvine has held up better than neighboring communities because of its desirable location, schools, amenities, blah, blah, blah. Which only means it’s late to the crash and the best (or worst) is yet to come.
Before anyone continues to say “I would pay only so and so in Flatland, Nowhere.” I’d suggest that you go over to one of them NYC housing blogs and state so.
http://www.nypost.com/seven/06122008/news/regionalnews/movin__on_up__115158.htm
I’m pretty sure the Yanks won’t be as nice as us Caliphonyans.
Maybe he can “move up” from his Archie Bunker house to live next to The Jeffersons?
http://www.geocities.com/Hollywood/9176/song.htm
I like the bare white walls in 9 Paso Robles better than the yellow walls at 15, but those old-lady drapes have got to go!
What is the shadow/spot on floor underneath the chandelier on picture 2 of 9 Paso Robles? Did the old light fixture drop on the cat and they just hung it back up? Did the realtor even look at these pictures before posting? A couple of chairs in the courtyard and bathroom pictures alone would have gone a long way in making the house look a lot more lived in.
Does anyone else find it interesting that there is a big desk in the living/great room right under the stairs of 15 Paso Robles? The pictures might be great otherwise but there has to be a more suitable office space in a house that size.
Very disappointed about the comments was putting in the thread today.
I though people here is smarter and braver to face the REAL world, and now I am feeling I should not waste time here.
This is wonderful house and price is well above 1 million. And it will be SOLD very soon for prices around 1.4 million. This is for sure thing.
The RE prices will go down another 20%. But you need smarter than you are now to undertake this opportunity.
Hey nice troll post! 😉
Ok chump, step up and put your money where you mouth is then.
If not, shut up and keep smoking that crack… loser.
As California goes so goes the rest of the Coubtry, as far as real estate is concerned. Here’s to praying that Clifornia recovers quickly.
http://cindycranston.texasrealestatevoices.com/
Speedy recovery? Recovery? There will be no going back to the dream world, if that is what you mean.
Brave? Smart? Are you trying to recruit people to go to Iraq or something?
IR: I think you inadvertently help some home sales. The day that you posted the listing about 9 Paso Robles, that evening immediately the listing status changed to “Backup Offers.” We were interested in checking out the place, but apparently were too late. Our realtor called the realtor for 9 Paso Robles and found out that the house already had 7 offers, the highest for $1.35 million, and said another offer for $1.4 million was going to come the next day. So we were told that if our offer wasn’t going to be higher than $1.4 – we shouldn’t bother checking it out!