74 thoughts on “Illin'”

1. Trooper March 28, 2008 at 3:34 pm

   I love how you’ve given the turkey a liitle privacy with strategic banner ad placement…..

   Not that I was looking or anything…. 😉
   —–
2. Masterofdamoney March 28, 2008 at 3:36 pm

   Great finds, IR. Is this a first for your site, showing the OC RE ‘tycoons’ in all their glory?

   It’s important that people understand what the NEXT wave of NOD/Foreclosures will be, and I think you are putting it in your crosshairs here. During the peak of the bubble, I believe I read a statistic at fully 30%+ of all homes sold in California were purchased as ‘investment’ properties. Also, something along the lines of 35% of all the mortgages taken out during that same timeframe in CA were ‘option arm’ loans.

   Everyone keeps saying that the ‘subprime mortgage mess’ is the problem. Wait until these hit… bwahahaha!

   Excellent work, as always!
3. IrvineRenter March 28, 2008 at 4:24 pm

   Zovall did a series of posts on fraud some time ago with multiple properties, but this is the first profile that we done on one non-fraudulent financial empire. Brittney found this group for me, and I suspect she will be sending me more.

   I remember last year when the realtors were blabbing about how the speculators had left the market. They may have slowed down buying, but they had certainly not exited their positions, as today’s post demonstrates. I agree with you that we should be seeing a lot more of these, and since each empire that crumbles results in multiple REOs, the inventory will continue to grow quickly.

   BTW, if you really want to get the joke of this post, look up the names of the property owners (anyone who does, please don’t post it.)
4. George8 March 28, 2008 at 4:28 pm

   >>Countrywide must have really liked doing business with these gentlemen. On property #1, they lost $110,300, on property #2 they lost $69,900, and on property #3, they lost $78,340 for a total loss of $258,540
5. Masterofdamoney March 28, 2008 at 4:39 pm

   Just looked it up… LOL.

   Good show, sir! 🙂
6. George8 March 28, 2008 at 4:49 pm

   Truncated comment:

   CFC’s eventual loss on these three will likely double $258,540 since they will not likely find buyers until 20-25% lower than asking.

   Speaking of multiple property speculation, I wonder if anyone can follow up on the incredible couple who at one time owned more than 20 properties in Las Vegas with combined income of around $80k annually.
7. NoWow!way March 28, 2008 at 4:53 pm

   That is takes 5 renters to pay rent is an obvious indicator of how unaffordable housing has gotten.

   Those 5k jobs lost in the subprime lending industry in Irvine, alone, will have an impact, too. It is not just one or two little things about this current housing disaster… it is going to be the culimination effect of death by a zillion little paper cuts.

   I noticed someone referenced that (i think the reference was to me) people were continuing to pick on that homeowner of yesterday who sillysmom thinks may have suffered a mental breakdown. I didn’t pile on after she posted that, rather I posted my reactions to the home and I speculated a bit before I got that far down.

   Apparently they really did have 8 in the family. As far as whether a family member had a breakdown, that is speculation and a sad situation for the family, if true. But I still stand by my position that the monthly costs alone, would be a challenge. Keeping that damn thing clean each week would make me have a stress break down, too. That size of home is CONSTANT MAINTENANCE AND CLEANING.
8. Surfing in Newport March 28, 2008 at 5:08 pm

   I think the 30%+ refers to investment and second homes (e.g. a vacation property). Second homes are probably more common than you think. If the person has significant income, then they are likely to list the low tax state home as the primary residence. I don’t think California will be that low tax state.
9. zoiks March 28, 2008 at 6:15 pm

   People want what they think other people want.

   That explains so much of human bubble behavior. Gold, real estate, tech stocks, rock bands, iPhones, you name it. If you think lots of people want something, you are more likely to want it.

   It’s related to hording, too. Some of this ridiculous real estate activity in the last few years was a type of hording. Let’s buy 5, 10, 20 properties because in a couple years people are REALLY going to want these.

   Hah!
10. lee in irvine March 28, 2008 at 6:32 pm

    Don’t mean to state the obvious, but homes are made to be lived in … mainly by families!
11. buster March 28, 2008 at 6:36 pm

    Reminds me of some friends in Idaho. Got married, bought a 3,600 sf house together and rented their two existing homes back in ’03. Six months later they drank the KoolAid and refinanced both rentals to buy two more. One year later, refinanced their prinicpal residence and re-fi’d the other properties (don’t know if it was three or all four) and bought three more. Somewhere along the line they bought another one because they had a toal of eight rentals plus their home. Rent was pouring in and all the loans were option ARMs.

    Friends had a baby and positive cash flow, so she quit her job. As of two weeks ago, five of the eight rentals were behind in payments and the other three were going that way. Payments on 3,600 sf principal residence just shot up (I guess it was a two year deal) and they can’t refinance.

    Last week my friend said, “I can’t believe how it went all wrong” and complained how they got “screwed.” I asked, “by whom did you get screwed” and she replied, “you know, the system.”

    So I guess you’re “screwed” by that evil “system” if you can’t leverage yourself into the stratosphere and never have to work again, living off of your rental income, all in the space of four years.

    For the sake of our friendship, I just kept my mouth shut.
12. unknown March 28, 2008 at 6:48 pm

    How do you look up the name of the property owner?

    Thanks
13. DeadBeatRenter March 28, 2008 at 7:11 pm

    “Last week my friend said, “I can’t believe how it went all wrong” and complained how they got “screwed.” I asked, “By whom did you get screwed” and she replied, “you know, the system.”

    I can remember the words from the WaMu broker when I got my first loan, it was an ARM. She said don’t worry in a few years you can refinance and get a fixed rate mortgage. Well in fact I was very luck and was able to get a 15 year fixed rate loan but not from WaMu.

    I suspect many people were not as lucky in their timing, I wonder if any one is able to get any kind of financing these days. The mortgage broker I used is now literally bagging groceries at VONS in San Juan Capistrano.

    I am glad I like my home in Big Bear Lake, but I do hope to someday move back to civilization and Irvine may be the place. I just wonder if “no doc” loans will ever be available again for us self employed guys that are too lazy to maintain the proper paper work needed for the full doc loans.

    Interestingly, my FICO score dropped about 150 points in the last few months and I have no derogatory information. I did finance a new RV but would that alone cause a drop from 760 to 590. I wonder if the FICO people are changing their game as well?

    Does anyone know?
14. fencewalker March 28, 2008 at 7:12 pm

    Interesting story + smart move on your part.
15. Strom March 28, 2008 at 7:37 pm

    Looks like they haven’t paid their December taxes, either…
16. 4walls4me March 28, 2008 at 7:41 pm

    IR,

    Since these are not primary residences, can Countrywide, at in theory, come after their assets?

    Thank you.
17. IrvineRenter March 28, 2008 at 7:56 pm

    You need access to the property record database through one of the title companies.
18. Kelja March 28, 2008 at 7:59 pm

    DeadBeatRenter – Big Bear? I was there last summer for a few days last summer with my family. We noticed the town seemed was littered – with for sale signs.

    Since Big Bear still is mainly second homes, I figured those were being dumped first before actual residences.
19. IrvineRenter March 28, 2008 at 8:01 pm

    Yes, if they go through a judicial foreclosure. If they have no assets, Countrywide will probably not bother.
20. ipoplaya March 28, 2008 at 8:07 pm

    Interestingly enough, none of these properties appear to be anywhere in the foreclosure process… I couldn’t find any NODs on any of them. They have been keeping up with their payments it appears.
21. skek March 28, 2008 at 8:08 pm

    I think we all knew some self-made real estate tycoons. There was a guy at the gym who bragged every time I saw him about his real estate empire. He’d get on the early interest list of every new development, buy a home in Phase One and the unload it as soon as prices increased by 10-20%. At the time, I didn’t see how he could hold so many properties — he probably barely made six figures. I’m sure he did fine flipping the first handful of houses, but sometimes I wonder what happened to him. I don’t think he was smart enough to see the writing on the wall and get out. Besides, he was probably addicted to the extra income by that point.
22. AZDavidPhx March 28, 2008 at 8:12 pm

    1996 Tickle Me Elmo?
23. DeadBeatRenter March 28, 2008 at 8:16 pm

    “All of America is a forest of for sale signs”
24. tenmagnet March 28, 2008 at 8:34 pm

    We must know the same guy.
    This guy was flipping a house and condo in Vegas.
    Primary residence in Irvine was HELOC’d to the hilt, another condo flip in Woodbury.
    I remember asking him who was funding all his deals.
    His answer was Fremont.
    Regret not using the info to purchase every put option available on Fremont at the time. Would’ve made a fortune!
25. shiny March 28, 2008 at 8:34 pm

    You really need to drive around Big Bear to appreciate how many homes are for sale. It looks like at least 1 out of every 4 homes is for sale, no joke. it gets monotonous to see so many “for sale” signs. As the boom bloomed, everybody bought up there and now they caught my-resets-are-hitting-gotta-sell fever with no buyers available cuz nobody has lenders dying to loan them money to waste on vacation homes anymore. It is a real bloodbath up there. Plus, the long term trend is one of drought so so many trees are dead or dying. Global warming or whatever but it ain’t like it used to be up there.

    Big Bear City is a fire holocaust just waiting to happen: densely forested (with plenty of ’em dying) and tons of homes with tar paper/shingle roofs. They better fireproof all those for sale signs.
26. IrvineRealtor March 28, 2008 at 8:51 pm

    Do you think WaMu’s slogan is going to change from

    “Woo Hoo”

    to the reverse

    “Ohh Oww?”
27. houseonlegs March 28, 2008 at 8:52 pm

    I know many people who purchased several so called investment properties. Now they have no way to pay for their April property tax bills.
28. IrvineRealtor March 28, 2008 at 8:59 pm

    How about 1977 Star Wars? I saw it more times than you.
29. Lost Cause March 28, 2008 at 9:10 pm

    Real estate investing is actually a pretty safe and certain way to make money. But I have not known anyone to own single family houses. It is really not a good idea, since when the tenant moves out, you have to pay the entire monthly expense by yourself, as opposed to multiple units.
30. tenmagnet March 28, 2008 at 9:16 pm

    That’s no badge of honor.
    Hopefully, you’ve evolved and aren’t still sleeping on Star Wars sheets.
31. Seattlegamboy March 28, 2008 at 10:07 pm

    Our favorite lurker, Daniel Gross, has posted his opinion on McCain’s proposed economic policies.

    http://www.slate.com/id/2187570/

    McCain’s housing speech, delivered in Orange County, Calif., ground zero of the housing crisis, was a mixed bag. He provided a good description of the problem. But his solution to an era in which financial deregulation set the stage for federal bailouts, rampant speculation, and reckless lending is … less regulation. “Our financial market approach should include encouraging increased capital in financial institutions by removing regulatory, accounting, and tax impediments to raising capital.” Bizarrely, he has also joined the chorus arguing that mark-to-market accounting—the rules that require companies to, you know, tell investors the actual market value of assets they hold—should be revisited.

    The Federal Reserve and the Bush administration have justified the extraordinary help offered to investment banks and investors by saying that it matters less how we got here and more how we deal with the situation as it is. For McCain, however, it’s all about the journey. Poor decisions should not be rewarded—unless those poor decisions are made by really rich people who run investment banks and hedge funds. While “those who act irresponsibly” shouldn’t be bailed out as a matter of principle, it’s OK to take extraordinary measures to help banks prevent “systemic risk that would endanger the entire financial system and the economy.” Obama and Clinton—and the Bush administration, through its various efforts to ease the mortgage crisis—have argued that it might be possible to spare further systemic risk if something were done to buck up the fortunes of homeowners. Bollocks, says McCain. People should just put up more money for down payments and work harder to keep current with their mortgage payments.
32. IrvineRealtor March 28, 2008 at 10:10 pm

    The wife made me throw them out. Was a very sad day.

    As a Realtor, though, I assure you that my evolution may still be in question.
33. Strom March 28, 2008 at 10:24 pm

    They didn’t pay December, so they’re already behind.
34. Major Schadenfreude March 28, 2008 at 10:51 pm

    “Bollocks, says McCain. People should just put up more money for down payments and work harder to keep current with their mortgage payments.”

    If this is in lieu of Uncle Sam’s financial help, then it sounds good to me!
35. zoiks March 28, 2008 at 11:07 pm

    “As a Realtor, though, I assure you that my evolution may still be in question.”

    Hey you’re catching the spirit of things! Hooray! 🙂
36. skek March 28, 2008 at 11:38 pm

    IHB has to walk a fine line between using publicly available information to publicize the risks and consequences of irrational speculation in real estate and making public assumptions about people’s personal financial decisions. I think the bloggers and, for the most part, the commenters tend to stay on the correct side of that line — the fact that people backed off and expressed sympathy for yesterday’s family is a good example of that. Where tragedy or hardship is the cause of the financial distress, noone here wishes the homeowners ill. But as has been pointed out before, the numbers of distressed properties and the refinance histories are too staggering for “life’s circumstances” to explain the parade of leveraged properties that are profiled on this blog. Personally, I don’t need to know anything personal about the people behind these properties — I just want to know what it all means for OC real estate in the future.
37. former_irvine_resident March 28, 2008 at 11:41 pm

    Ah hah! Good one. Worth the effort to look up.
38. Chris_Silicon_Valley March 29, 2008 at 12:01 am

    I agree. We should not pile on to those that are in unfortunate situations where they have no choice but to use their homes as ATMs for circumstances beyond their control such as medical cost or mental health facilities. With the escalating cost of health care in this country, using the house as a ready to withdraw bank is probably the only remedy if salary and savings are not sufficient for those maladies.

    Keep up the good work IR.
39. Chris_Silicon_Valley March 29, 2008 at 12:04 am

    Obviously. However, until the primary (and hopefully the only) residency rate in Irvine is shot through the roof relative to the number of Irvine homes, you’ll continue to see a decline in price.

    I don’t see it at this point. Perhaps in 2010 and/or beyond.
40. Alan March 29, 2008 at 12:08 am

    I think you will find most readers of this blog agree wholeheartedly with McCain and are horrified by the proposals of Clinton and Obama.

    For the most part, middle America believes that people should be responsible for their own mistakes and it is not up to the government to bail them out. Misreading middle America has always been a problem for liberal democrats like Clinton who seems to think there should be a government solution to every problem and could very well cost the democrats the election again.
41. Alan March 29, 2008 at 12:14 am

    Too true, before this bubble real estate investing meant buying apartments or storage facilities with a known ratio of rent/purchase price. The only people I knew who had SFR’s kept and rented their old SFR after they had lived in it for 10-20 years when they moved up in income and were able to buy a bigger house and didn’t need to sell the old one and could rent it and make money.

    Investing is about getting a fixed return on your money in a safe way.

    Speculating is playing with your own (or better yet someone else’s) money, buying something now in anticipation of selling for more in the future. The market is about the collapse of naive speculators, not seasoned real estate investors.
42. tenmagnet March 29, 2008 at 12:25 am

    Don’t blame your wife
    She’s only trying to help build your confidence.
    Hopefully, she’ll finally get rid of the Storm Trooper costume that you love wearing so much.
43. Emma Anne March 29, 2008 at 12:41 am

    I don’t like any of their plans, but McCain’s “less regulation” might be the very worst.
44. shiny March 29, 2008 at 12:53 am

    McCain took a vietcong beating for this country, that has to count for something. And didn’t see him pulling a Jane Fonda, despite all manner of harsh treatment and imprisonment. I wonder if he kept a gold watch in the manner of pulp fiction. That would be something, albeit uncomfortable.
45. Alan March 29, 2008 at 1:00 am

    I don’t interpet McCain’s comments as being for less regulation, I think what he meant was we shouldn’t be too hasty in changing regulations, that any change in the regulatory structure should be done deliberatly and with care as hasty responses could make the markets worse.
46. sarah March 29, 2008 at 1:51 am

    I was wondering if anyone knows if the home values currently listed on Zillow are correct? I was talking to a friend yesterday who has a three bedroom home in Northpark Square in Irvine-about 1700 square feet. We were talking about everything going on in the housing market and she was adament that her home was worth about $980,000. I looked on Zillow and sure enough-there was her house at $978,000-is this information right? If it isn’t-is there a site you can go on to find out what the true value is?
47. ex-tangelo March 29, 2008 at 1:54 am

    Alan, instead of insulting your intelligence for talking out of your ass about the presidential candidates, I’ll just point you to “Ten Days that Changed Capitalism” (3/27/08, Wall Street Journal, by David Wessel) (no link – wordpress eats html, but it’s easy to find)

    Things are changing much faster than will be settled by the presidential campaign.

    I know, it’s much more fun to fall back on stereotypes about Democrats and Republicans… But a little reading never killed anyone.
48. no one special March 29, 2008 at 2:06 am

    Good god, No!! Zillow has not been very accurate recently, depending on how many houses are selling around the one you are looking at. Since it is based off of comps in the neighborhood, if there haven’t been any sales in a while, or just one recent sale, the zestimates aren’t taking into account any of the price declines that the neighborhood will likely be seeing. Zillow is pretty much useless for ‘value’ but extremely helpful for looking at where prices should be. I look at the sales history and figure that when houses reach their 2002 and earlier sales prices, they’re starting to get realistic.
49. DeadBeatRenter March 29, 2008 at 2:09 am

    On the other hand, you have all those Santa Anans to deal with.
50. Trooper March 29, 2008 at 2:21 am

    Palm Springs and surrounding desert cities are the same. For Sale sign overload!
51. SCCalendarGirl March 29, 2008 at 2:26 am

    I disagree with the statement, “Most readers of this blog wholeheartedly agree with McCain…”
    I for one am voting for Obama and am horrified by the prospect of a McCain presidency.
52. tenmagnet March 29, 2008 at 2:34 am

    In Ipop We Trust!
53. rkp March 29, 2008 at 2:40 am

    I didn’t realize it yesterday but my friend’s parents live on plumeria and my friend grew up there! Their house is around the same size and though its too big for me, its not so big that the cleaning alone would kill you. They have a set of maids that comes in every 2 weeks and spends 3 hours there for $120 or so per visit. That basically puts the interior cleaning costs at $3000 per year (w/ tips) and that doesn’t seem to bad.

    By the way, my comment wasn’t to you and I didn’t look carefully at the timestamps. I just saw a lot of comments posted after Silly’s so just figured people were being insensitive to it but glad thats not the case 🙂
54. ipoplaya March 29, 2008 at 2:49 am

    Silly is right. This one, which is 1700sf, recently hit the market for $699K and is in the process of selling:

    http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=59716177

    1700sf in NP Square is worth $700-750K in this market unless the floors are made of gold or crown moulding is diamond studded…
55. ipoplaya March 29, 2008 at 2:50 am

    You ain’t gonna get me in the sack ten, so stop trying!

    🙂
56. ipoplaya March 29, 2008 at 2:52 am

    Email her this link sarah:

    http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1547677

    She’ll get a kick out of that…
57. tenmagnet March 29, 2008 at 3:11 am

    Don’t flatter yourself; I’m way out of your league.
    Besides, I’m more than you can handle, so let’s just be friends.
58. zornundo March 29, 2008 at 3:49 am

    Ahh…to have enough money to pay somebody else to clean my place. Livin’ the dream.

    I’d pay my nieces to do it, but they’re only five and seven years old. Whenever my wife and I ask them to help out, they end up making a bigger mess than when they started.
59. alan March 29, 2008 at 3:50 am

    Read it, nothing new, calculated risk has been running better coverage on the Fed’s efforts to contain the BS collapse..

    When all the dust has setteled, there is no dispute that these investment banks will have to pay for their actions by accepting new regulations. McCain is just saying that you can’t define new regulations in the setting of a politiacal campaign, that regulations should be discussed and debated before being adpoted. You don’t rush to lynch the …….
60. ipoplaya March 29, 2008 at 3:59 am

    I’ve got a maid crew that comes weekly and does my 1600sf place for $60 a pop…

    It sure is nice to come home on those cleaning days!

    I figure the money is worth the extra time with my kids.
61. zornundo March 29, 2008 at 4:02 am

    Wife and I obtained financing to purchase a home here in Tennessee. We paid 5% down (I know, not as prudent as we’d have liked) and financed the remaining 95% with a 15-year fixed. I’m thinking our lender was just dying to lend us money because we have decent salaries and the loan payment is ~12% DTI. So I’d say if your credit is good and you’re not overreaching on a property, you can still get money.
62. zornundo March 29, 2008 at 4:06 am

    I will agree with that statement. The government can’t just come swooping in to save people from themselves. The market is working like it should, which means foreclosures and falling home prices.
63. alan March 29, 2008 at 4:10 am

    ipop..

    do you give then a 1099 or are they illegals?
64. zornundo March 29, 2008 at 4:12 am

    I don’t even know how zillow is correct about our current place. It’s a single-wide on three acres in the middle of nowhere and the zestimate is over $120k!! The highest that the land and single-wide would fetch together would probably be around $25,000.
65. alan March 29, 2008 at 4:36 am

    Actually, you are doing her a great service. She can print up this to use as a comp to appeal her assessed property value, that’l lower her assessed value $250-300k and save her $2,500/yr in taxes.

    She owe’s ipop dinner or a house cleaning..
66. GreenspanIsATraitor March 29, 2008 at 4:53 am

    “Read it, nothing new, calculated risk has been running better coverage on the Fed’s efforts to contain the BS collapse..”

    Alan,

    I concur. Thanks to Calculated Risk, and Mike Shedlock (Mish) at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
    Im able to retire at 37. Mucho thanks to all those subprime lenders (New Century especially, and CountryWide) for all the puts I bought way back when. Sure, I missed the housing boom on the way up, but NAILED it on the way DOWN. Woooooooo.
67. former_irvine_resident March 29, 2008 at 6:57 am

    Let’s just hope he doesn’t make her dress like Princess Leia when she was enslaved by Jabba.
68. ipoplaya March 29, 2008 at 7:12 am

    ¿qué? No entiendo.
69. Chris_Silicon_Valley March 29, 2008 at 9:00 am

    I’m sorry but, as a registered Repuke myself and a fiscal conservative fella, I actually feel that we should bail out the homeowners just like the Democraps had proposed.

    Why? To teach all these corporate and investment goons a lesson. I’m sick and tired of parachutes for these guys with bailouts and easy govt loans while the homeowners get screwed even though homeowners are just as guilty as those corporate a-wipes.

    Punishing the drug users but not the drug pushers is not what I had in mind.
70. Chris_Silicon_Valley March 29, 2008 at 9:11 am

    You’re kidding right? Was your friend drinking Kool-aid while she was adament?
71. Laura Louzader March 29, 2008 at 10:10 am

    I don’t know for sure, but another big loan- for the RV-could have been what dropped your score.

    Two large loans that total more than a given percentage of your income could have made the diff.
72. Laura Louzader March 29, 2008 at 10:19 am

    McCain’s solution is:

    Less-regulation-but-always-bail-the-big-boys-out.

    Debacles like this will continue to happen as long as major players know that they will always be bailed out by the taxpayers.

    McCain’s solution is even more immoral than that of the Democrats.

    The only way a total absence of regulation will work is if you also pull away the supports and force financial institutions, as well as the public, to bear all the risk of their recklessness.

    McCain is only endorsing more of the official Republican policy of privatising the profits while making the public bear the costs.
73. Lost Cause March 29, 2008 at 11:45 am

    What a complete load of horse pucky. It proves what an idiot Mc Cain is, following the Goldwater tradition of saying the wrong thing at the wrong time and in the wrong place. How in God’s name can he justify handing out huge piles of money to Bear Steans and the like, and not aiding the small player who may be out the roof over their head?
74. Lost Cause March 29, 2008 at 11:47 am

    Mc Cain’s military skills got him captured and held prisoner for many years.

Comments are closed.