Address: 28 Bolinas, Irvine, CA 92602
Plan: 3 – 1622 sq ft – 3bd/2ba
MLS: S516101 DOM: 4
Sale History: 12/4/2007: $638,586 (back to the bank)
9/9/2005: $680,000
6/11/2004: $675,000
Current Price: $529,900
This Plan 3 in the San Juan Bautista tract in Northpark went back to the bank earlier this month. At the current asking price, the bank is willing to accept a $100k+ loss on this property.
Here are the private remarks:
Combo R-E-0. Buyer must submit a prequal w/Wells Fargo along with the offer. (Bank rules)Call xxxxxxxxxxxx Property sold AS-IS. $1,000 bonus to selling agent if closes by 2/28/2008.
There is actually another Plan 3 REO townhome in this tract (15 Bolinas) which is pending sale at $532,900. These 2 REO’s will definitely have an impact on the comps.
Just another piece of evidence that we’re nowhere near the bottom yet; a 1600 square foot, “AS-IS”, no yard, apartment for half a million.
Ooooo, but it’s in a nice neighborhood.
—–
And it doesn’t even have a gourmet kitchen. Ah yes, Irvine is ‘different’.
Good luck to the knife catcher on this one. I bet someone will jump on this quickly thinking they are getting a good deal.
$529,900 is a bit below the middle point ($540,750) between the two sales history of 09/09/2005 $680,000 and 02/26/2003 $401,500.
So, this case set the rollback to about the price of May 2004.
I wonder how all those bimbo housewives living in Irvine are handling these dropping prices….
snicker.
bimbo housewives?
they are watching this blog and not buying.
At this price things are getting very close to rent savings for me – granted I live in Irvine Company owned apts and pay a premium – but still…..
Bimbo Housewife here – checking blog and paying rent this morning!
Looks just like a nothing aparment I rented 20 years ago, what’s the rent now $1800/month for something like this?
Zovall, where did your June 2004 sale price of $675K come from?
This is 22% below 2005 sales price. Not bad, but I suspect it will get better. I think the original 2003 sales prices may be up for grabs this time next year.
I clicked on the MLS link and it says backup offers accepted. Did this property net a knife catcher instantaneously?
LOL Alan. Try $2400-2500.
I thought it was funny too. Why be second fiddle when there is a gluttony. You wake up in the morning and say to yourself “I will place a backup offer on some dingy ugly place just in case the buyer doesn’t come through”?. I guess if you don’t act now you’ll be priced out forever.
In other notes, “as-is” would be disqualified by Calif. laws anyway. You would be surprised to learn how much you’re responsible as a seller even after the escrow closes. Banks are arrogant and I wouldn’t ever consider submitting a “first” offer unless the price is a “fire sale price” or a true auction with no 10% fees, etc. Prices will get there fur sure.
Actually, more like $2700-2900 I think…
http://orangecounty.craigslist.org/apa/480843109.html
IAC 3 bedroom places are going for $2200-2400 and they would have a few hundred less squares, people all around you, etc.
$1800, that’s funny. Man, I wonder where you come up with these things. Seriously out-of-touch. $1800 is the rent on a big one-bedroom or tiny 2/2 @ IAC.
I double checked that too, thinking your original numbers were good. $2900 seems high, but Craigslist seems very spartan at the moment.
I’ve been seeing more and more wishing price rents posted.
It’ll be interesting to see if Irvine maintains the large premium on rents compared to other nearby cities like Huntington Beach, Newport, Laguna Niguel, etc.
Looks like renting in Northpark will cost you $10,000 a year over Mission Viejo.
http://orangecounty.craigslist.org/search/apa?query=Mission+Viejo&minAsk=min&maxAsk=2200&bedrooms=3
Thaz because MV is the slums!
It’s so nice not to have scroll through the juvenile song part to find the real post.
I haven’t driven south to work since I was at Cendant 10+ years ago. Sure, there are a few employers here and there but the bulk in OC are in Irvine. The outlying areas will always offer a discount.
Ooops, I was thinking we were talking about 2 bedrooms, these things are tiny.
I’m still amazed they can get these rents, I don’t see how the econcomy can sustain it.
Wow, you are incredibly lazy.
Personally I think the theme songs and lyrics give this blog character.
Quit bagging on the songs. There’s nothing wrong with them. Are there puppies somewhere that need to be kicked Beer Drinker?
I’ve enjoyed this blog quite a bit, but I have to say some posters in here are runninig a bit low on reality. I have been pretty amazed, for 10 years now, on how desirable Irvine is to a lot of people. To me, it’s flat (for the most part) and too old fashioned in its planning (if you want to see the advanced master planning, drive down and check out Ladera Ranch), uniform and bland. That said, to be fair, Irvine is extremely well located (between the 5 and 405, close to Newport and Laguna and South Coast), has great schools, UCI, a strong business base, and now the Spectrum – a huge plus for many buyers.
I think this property will drop in price in the next two years as part of the general downtrend. However, for this moment in time (if you absolutely have to buy) it appears to be a good deal. It has travertine flooring in the bottom floor and some type of upgraded countertops and cabinets in the kitchen). It has a nice patio that’s been upgraded with beautiful retaining walls and a patio cover. The other unit that is in escrow probably is not as highly upgraded (these size units typically are not) – so it already represents a good deal compared with the other unit. Once again, maybe not in a year, but for right now it’s not bad.
Also, a 2 bedroom new(er) apartment in Irvine is over $2,000/month right now. Let’s say a 3 bedroom woudld be $2,500 to $2,600. With that, you would not have a private patio and it certainly wold not be very highly upgraded. So I would give this an extra $200/month as rent. Yes it’s a lot of money – but it is what it is.
I thought this was in Tustin when I saw the address. Is there a good online reference for where the borders lie?
You sound like an agent.
So let’s say you have a cold hundy in the bank and are renting a similar unit in ole NP Square right now at say $2700. At what price does this become a good buy decision for you?
At $500K, you could finance $400K @ 6% for an after-tax interest cost of around $1300 per month. Prop taxes + mellos are probably $375K after-tax per month. HOA is $236. Insurance probably $75/month. Brings the cost of owning to around $2K per month.
That hundy is going to earn you $275 or so each month after tax sitting in the bank. So, it would appear that a price of $500K you could own with an after-tax out-of-pocket of around $2K, assuming you had the money donw, or rent for $2700 with $275 in interest income for a net out-of-pocket of $2425.
At a price of $500K, again assuming you had 20% down, buying today would actually save vs. renting the same or very similar unit. Obviously the pace of depreciation in the short-term will shred the $500 or so premium you are paying to rent, so any purchase right now would be unwise. But assuming interest rates remain around the same levels they are today, picking up this place at $450-475K in the late summer might actually be a good idea. At that price level, one would pay approximately $800 less than renting and likely have not much depreciation left to go.
Some food for thought…
On the subject of what the equivalent rent would be for this property, does anyone know of a publication that keeps track of trends in rent?
For example, I know of one free service that trawls the asking prices of apartment listings in San Francisco Craiglist and combines them with google maps. It’s really helpful if you want to know what the market will bear (or in this case, what the landlords are asking for)
http://mullinslab2.ucsf.edu/SFrentstats/
I like to look at those numbers, and the asking prices for real estate, and run them through this rent vs own calculator:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/10/business/2007_BUYRENT_GRAPHIC.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
If I still lived in Irvine and had a down payment saved up, the interaction between rental trends and the market price for an equivalent new home would be the #1 consideration.
I have no idea if I would guess that Irvine rents are going up or down. (Some anonymous internet blowhard I am. Everyone’s gotta have an opinion!) In the Bay Area, rents started accelerating upward last year when the real estate market started to decline. On the other hand, if most of Irvine’s real estate appreciation was from investors buying second homes, there’s not as large a pool of potential renters being displaced from the real estate market to add to the demand for rental properties.
You thought an address that said Irvine, CA was in Tustin? Huh? This unit is served by Tustin schools in spite of the Irvine address. As a matter of fact, Beckman High is right across Bryan Ave. a couple hundred yards away.
Are you saying that IR is a puppy? LOL! Somehow I think he can handle a little criticism.
test… are my posts showing up?
On the subject of what the equivalent rent would be for this property, does anyone know of a publication that keeps track of trends in rent?
For example, I know of one free service that trawls asking prices of apartment listings in San Francisco Craiglist and combines them with google maps. It’s really helpful if you want to know what the market will bear (or in this case, what the landlords are asking for)
I like to look at those numbers and the asking prices for real estate, and run them through this rent vs own calculator. (removed link, caused post to fail)
If I still lived in Irvine and had a down payment saved up, the interaction between rental trends and the market price for an equivalent new home would be the #1 consideration.
I have no idea if I would guess that Irvine rents are going up or down. (Some anonymous internet blowhard I am. Everyone’s gotta have an opinion!) In the Bay Area, rents started accelerating upward last year when the real estate market started to decline. On the other hand, if most of Irvine’s real estate appreciation was from investors, there’s not the pool of potential renters being displaced from the real estate market to add to the demand for rental properties.
MLS ex-tangelo. Most rentals get listed in MLS. Comps can be run on rentals just like sales…
Just got to get a realtor to do it for you!
I’d pay a half million for the retaining wall alone. That fence is pretty nice too.
You’ll never need to hire house sitters as your neigbors can see directly into your apartment. Gotta factor that into the sales price too!
JimmyJohnson,
Do I detect a strong odor of bitterness? I can smell it all the way from your crappy little place in Riverside.
ipoplaya, i think you continually underate the after tax costs of a loan. 6% interest only payments on 400K are 2K/month. I’m currently paying 6.75% and interest are going up so 7% is more like what bank will actually give you if you can qualify. Lets not talk about short term teaser rates, only the fully adjusted rate. You also have to pay principal on your loan, your own repair costs (yes, learn to fix your own bloody toilet, plumbers make more than you), special assessments, so after putting your 100K down, I’ll bet your monthly cost of owning this puppy is closer to $3.2K/month, after taxes coming down to $2.6k/month.
If I were you, I’d rather rent in the stix (HB or MV) then tie up that kind of investment in a small, 3bdrm apartment.
Nope. And I didn’t sleep at a Holidy Inn Express last night. However, I do know people who owns in Irvine, rents in Irvine, owns rentals in Irvine, checked out IAC, craiglist, homeseekers.com, etc.
A year down the road the buyer will realize she/he overpaid. But just right now, compared to the other pending sale, he/she thinks it’s a deal.
Once again, Alan you don’t know what you are talking about. A 720 fico and 20% down will get you 6% on a 30-year fixed right now. THERE IS NO TEASER RATE ON A 30-YEAR FIXED. THE RATE IS FIXED FOR 30 YEARS, 30 YEARS!!! 6.75-7.0% is a friggin’ jumbo rate…
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/pftools/rates/RateChart.asp?sid=159412
http://www.mtgcapital.com/ratesheet-fixed.html?state=ca&rs=fixed&p=1
https://us.etrade.com/e/t/mortgageshomeequity/mortgagerates
http://www.indymacmortgage.com/loanworks/
Need to see more? I can give you more URLs if you’d like. Maybe you think they are all false advertising. Maybe its a communist plot? Might be an alien invasion?!
You are batting 0% today. First $1800 rent on a 3/2 1622sf towny in NP, only $800-1000 off the mark and now quoting interest rates .75-1.0% over what they are.
I understand you think the world economy is crashing to a halt, but please, use real information. There are people that read this blog to learn things. They might not be super savvy when it comes to finances and they lurk and learn. Don’t post BS info…
And I can tell you one thing for sure, a plumber doesn’t make more than I do. That didn’t stop me from re-tiling my own bathroom and yes, taking care of my own toilet de-install and install as well though. That kind of stuff is easy breezy, especially with those rubber gasket toilet rings vs. the wax ones.
Can I go completely off-topic? I wanted to tell people what I loved best about Irvine.
I lived way out by Jeffrey and Irvine Center Drive and rode my bicycle to work near the 55 and 405. I would get on the bike path that followed the river, which would take me most of the way without a single intersection with a street – every time the path came to a cross street, it would dip under the street bridge, with an on and off ramp up to the street.
It was a bicycle freeway, and it. was. awesome.
*And* the sun was at my back in both directions.
That is why Americans have credit cards! Do not underestimate people’s sense of entitlement in this country.
Doesn’t look like my posts are going through… Must be the URLS.
Alan, you’re wrong yet again. 30-year fixed loans, I said 30-YEAR FIXED conventional loans, are at 6% right now. Check any number of web sites and you will see that. No problem getting that rate, without points mind you, with 20% down and a 720 FICO. A 30-year I/O can be had at 6.5%. THERE IS NO TEASER RATE. THE RATE IS SET FOR 30 YEARS!
Don’t post BS info without checking your facts. $400K in not a jumbo and you are quoting jumbo rates…
If you are paying 7% on a conventional loan, you either have shitty credit, no equity and can’t refi, or just plain dumb… The $11K I have on my HELOC is under 7% and that is fully adjustable every month.
You shouldn’t factor in principal payment when doing a rent vs. buy comparison. Principal payments are savings, not housing expense. You increase you net worth via principal payments. As there is no savings component to rent that last time I checked (do landlords put some of that into a 401k for you?), an apples-to-apples comparison uses just the interest portion of the mortgage.
Two things are for sure, I take home way more than the typical plumber and I can fix my own damn toilet. When we buy a place next year, I’m going to put down new flooring myself (with the help of a couple of buddies) to save the exorbitant price places charge to install. $4 per sf to lay laminate, sheez, one plank takes less than a minute to put down and Home Depot wants $16 to do it….
Apologize for the practical double post. Site is very laggy today.
That’s the first thing I thought also. A small apartment for over a million bucks. Still overpriced to me.
Just for fun….
DC Area condos listed in Craig’slist.
The seller is offering a 6% Incentive to Buyers which can be used a variety of ways, i.e. pay off closing costs, reduce the sales price (ex: 1BR price for ad), pre-pay condo fees, or even buy down your interest rate! You can even purchase with no money out-of-pocket!
* 1 BR priced from $359,900 (670+ sqft), condo fee $264/mo
* 1 BR+den starts at $399,900 (785+ sqft), condo fee $322/mo
* 2 BR priced from $479,900 (981+ sqft), condo fee $437/mo
* 2 BR+den starts at $639,900 (1269+ sqft), condo fee $505/mo
* 3 BR priced from $929,900 (1500+ sqft), condo fee $564/mo
All condos are available for immediate occupancy. Pets are welcome and extra storage is available. There is an on-site ART bus stop that runs every 20 minutes to the metro down the street during the week.
Condos Include:
* 1 Garage Parking Space
* Wall-mounted NEW LG 42″ plasma TV
* Pre-wired for High Speed Internet
* 9 – 11 foot ceilings
* Gourmet Kitchen
* Maple Cabinetry
* Granite Countertops in Kitchen & Bathrooms
* Stainless Steel Appliances
* Hardwood Floors
* 12″ Ceramic Tiling
* Ceiling-to-Floor Windows
* Walk-in Closets
* Private Covered Balcony
* Full Size Washer/Dryer
* Recessed Lighting
Building amenities include pool, fitness room, movie theater room, rooftop terrace, billiards room, plus– you have a convenience of the newly opened 24-hour Harris Teeter in the same building, on-site dry cleaners, restaurants, and adjacent to Potomac Yard shopping center. The countless amenities and stunning views of the Potomac River, The Capitol, Washington Monument and Washington DC skyline combine to create a unique community unlike any other community in Arlington VA. Close to the metro and Regan National Airport, and minutes from Washington DC, old town Alexandria and Arlington.
I agree, I think this place is worth 400k
wellsfargo (www.wellsfargo.com) apr rate for 30 yr conforming loan 6.375%, jumbo 417K is 7.156%
I’d stick with actual bank rate quotes, these lower rates from mortgage brokers are probably not really available or will disapear as these companies no longer can resell these notes to China via a SIV
You mean “as is” isn’t allowed? In Florida it is allowed if you disclose the heck out of everything. After Andrew I wrote an as-is that was a page long on the sale of a ruined house to a guy who was going fix it up, on and on about how the seller wasn’t a contractor and didn’t really know what the hurricane had done, etc, etc. I’m pretty sure it would have held up in Court.
Here, even when is was super bubble busy, there were very few back-up contracts. I think the bank doesn’t know what a back up contract is.
Probably have to by a lobbyist for defense, corn-to-ethanol, Pharam or big tobacco to buy one of those puppies, these people are in a completely different income category. (the real meaning of “funny money – e.g. Mike Carona)
Oh just checked Etrade (www.etrade.com), not the splash intro page but put the numbers in the get instant rate quote page:
And the answer is…
Drum roll…..
Conforming loan for Kalifornia 30 yr fixed apr w 2.1 points starts at 5.9% and goes up to 6.49% as you pay fewer points.
Jumb rate for Kalifornia 30yr fixed apr w 2.1 points starts at 6.668% and goes up to 7.537% as you pay fewer points.
The defense rests.
Oh and I include principle in the cost because there are people who live paycheck to paycheck and don’t really factor in the forced fixed savings program the principal payment represents and wouldnt be able to afford the additional principle payment, even if they could afford the interest.
Depends, this is an apartment and so the rent-own ratio’s apply.
Looking at it more closly, it looks like a temporay shelter situation, someplace I would rent if I took a mid-term job and was planning on staying for only one to three years, therefore there will be a premium over what I would be willing to pay for long term for a similar property.
Lets say current rent is $2800/month which includes a $500 monthly premium because I’m willing to pay a little extra because I need something short term an I willing also to pay a little more to be closer to my job.
Base long term rent equavelent (planning on staying longer than 5 years) for me is then $2300, now lets say the economy sours and rents fall 20% (assuming recession comes), projected base rent becomes $1840.
Apply the 160 mulitplier and I come up with my value $295k to own something like this where I would want to stay more than 5 years.
The keyword is DISCLOSURE.
Pretty much any defects that are disclosed and accepted by both parties become the responsibility of the buyer.
That’s why we have home inspections to keep the seller honest.
Hey Alan – You got it right.. Don’t worry about Ipop.. Ipop is a realtor mole who smells roses among all the poop.. Ipooplaya, the dam has burst and sticking your finger in it isn’t gonna stop the prices from coming down and won’t make your argument for this home being a good buy any better. If someone had a cold hundy in the bank right now, they would continue wait until they feel the price bottoms out or the mortgage strings are loosened. KEEP HOPE ALIVE!
Hey Shark, dumbass, read this:
“Obviously the pace of depreciation in the short-term will shred the $500 or so premium you are paying to rent, so any purchase right now would be unwise.”
For you, who apparently doesn’t understand the written word, that translates to essentially “buying now would be stupid”. Gosh, wonder who wrote that? Wowwy, it was me. You hear that lots of realtors eh?
Lets keep these posts civil boys, no reason for name calling, if there was no dispute there would be no fun in posting.
So how does someone living paycheck to paycheck save $100K Alan? Does that make any sense at all? I think you and Shark need to get with Evelyn Wood and do a 2-for-1 special…
Countrywide will do a 30-year fixed conventional in CA for 6.125 with 20% and good FICO. Your “defense” located rates that are ALL BELOW the 6.75% you said mortgages were at today. Your “defense” just proved that you didn’t know what the hell you were writing when you said about mortgage rates “I’m currently paying 6.75% and interest are going up so 7%”.
Do you even realize your own posts make you look like a fool for paying 6.75%? According to your own information you could be paying 6.49% at Etrade or 6.375% at Wells. Land banks like Wells are going to be more expensive and Etrade’s rates have usually tended toward the high end. That means you could surely do better than 6.375 and yet you pay more. Way to go man… Let’s all heed your financial advice and piss away some money!
You’re right Alan re: my posts. I’ll chill. Not much sleep last night and people who don’t bother to read but still bother to post irk the hell out of me. My fangs are out today…
I’m paying 6.75% because 17 years ago I got a adjustable based on the LIBOR, it’s been good to me, it was much lower but that’s what it’s at now. I could have fixed it a couple years ago but decided it wasn’t worth the effort. I have a large HELOC w Citibank just to have, the rate on that is also 6.75%. I don’t think my payments are that out of line with what’s out there now. No one know where rates are going but after reading calcualted risk and the WSJ I think you have to plan on mortgage rates going higher in the near future, just like planning on paying $4/gallon for gas sometime in 08.
I’ve run across some fun data (or trivia, depending on the beholder):
http://www.city-data.com/city/Irvine-California.html
Population (year 2000): 143,072. Estimated population in July 2006: 193,956 (+35.6% change)
Estimated median household income in 2005: $82,827 (it was $72,057 in 2000) California: $53,629
Median gross rent in 2005: $1,528.
Single-family new house construction building permits:
* 1996: 773 buildings, average cost: $143,800
* 1997: 986 buildings, average cost: $186,700
* 1998: 1247 buildings, average cost: $173,900
* 1999: 1276 buildings, average cost: $167,700
* 2000: 1138 buildings, average cost: $167,600
* 2001: 1338 buildings, average cost: $167,600
* 2002: 1006 buildings, average cost: $174,400
* 2003: 1062 buildings, average cost: $197,700
* 2004: 943 buildings, average cost: $215,900
* 2005: 1164 buildings, average cost: $215,400
* 2006: 600 buildings, average cost: $269,700
Houses: 53,712 (51,190 occupied: 30,691 owner occupied, 20,499 renter occupied)
% of renters here: 40%
Median contract rent in 2005: $1,476 (lower quartile is $1,211, upper quartile is $1,830)
Rooms in renter-occupied apartments in Irvine, California (2005):
* 1 room: 1,254
* 2 rooms: 3,596
* 3 rooms: 4,098
* 4 rooms: 5,259
* 5 rooms: 3,548
* 6 rooms: 1,554
* 7 rooms: 643
* 8 rooms: 324
* 9 or more rooms: 223
Household income in 2005:
* Less than $10,000: 3310
* $10,000 to $14,999: 1522
* $15,000 to $19,999: 1453
* $20,000 to $24,999: 1562
* $25,000 to $29,999: 1611
* $30,000 to $34,999: 1704
* $35,000 to $39,999: 1852
* $40,000 to $44,999: 1998
* $45,000 to $49,999: 2043
* $50,000 to $59,999: 4062
* $60,000 to $74,999: 5344
* $75,000 to $99,999: 8169
* $100,000 to $124,999: 5587
* $125,000 to $149,999: 3675
* $150,000 to $199,999: 3871
* $200,000 or more: 3381
Birthplace of: Will Ferrell – (born 1967)
How many people actually have 20% down (i.e. $100,000) in this current environment? US has a net negative savings rate with decreases in both home equity and increases credit card delinquency.
Plus even if you had a $100k would you want to throw that into this apartment of all things? you’d also lose the oppurtunity costs of investing in something else with that $100k let alone maybe wanting something more for your money.
IR has pointed out that saying that a rate is available (i.e. high FICO plus downpayment) is a lot different then saying there are enough people who meet the requirements. Enough meaning that even when rent prices equal out mortgage costs that prices will likely still come down signicantly because these potential borrowers simply aren’t enough in numbers
Exactly, when sellers outnumber buyers, prices have to fall.
The best statistic to track this is months of inventory. In a normal housing market, inventory should be on the order of four months of sales. Current inventory is over 12 months of sales and climbing. In the high end, over 750K properties, inventories are over 16 months of sales.
This inventory level is not sustainable, so prices will fall to clear it out.
I’m also betting that Countrywide will go belly up by the end of 08, so get you loans from them while you can.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but what you’re saying is that this property is a deal because it is less of a rip-off than most other rip-offs, and you expect the home to devalue to the point in one year where the disillusioned knife catcher becomes unequivocally aware that they got ripped off.
Please explain to us again how this is a deal?
Too bad you can’t pay your rent/lease with a credit card.
My 2 bd 2 bath 1 car garage apt in Quail Hill is only 1785 a month for IAC. There are several 3 bd rm 2 car garage places in Quail for rent below 2400 a month.
This place is still overpriced.
You can pay rent with a CC in some places:
http://realtytimes.com/rtpages/20020419_plastic.htm
And someday, everyone will be able to pay their mortgage on a card too:
http://home3.americanexpress.com/corp//pc/2007/ahmc.asp
2 bd 2 bath apts can be found for less than 1800/month in an IAC complex!
This is the closest 3/2 IAC to the Bolinas property:
http://www.rental-living.com/Communities/Estancia/Prices-And-Floorplans/Floorplan/Plan-M—Mendocino/
It’s not even 1200sf and they are all rented out… Price is $2420.
Anyone here think an extra 400sf, two car attached garage, only one common wall, no one above, below, etc. isn’t worth another couple of hundred per month more?
You already can with AMEX and Indymac
what does IAC mean?
Thanks!
There working on ways to transfer money from your bank account using your cell phone. They have it in Japan already, you point your cell phone at the vending machine, push a button and out pops your $25 bottle of pure H2O.
Paying rent via your cellphone can’t be too far behind.
omg, it’s worse than that.
My car has a transponder that charges me for bridge tolls with no button-pushing on my part. And VISA or somebody has ads on TV where you touch something to an electronic pad and it deducts the value of whatever you’re buying, again with no affirmative response on your part.
It’s going to get to the point where you walk by the $25 bottle of H2O and you get charged whether you take it or not, and you’ll only notice it if you watch your account activity like a hawk.
Good luck getting those charges disputed…
IAC = Irvine Apartment Communities
http://www.rental-living.com/
Coming soon to Southern California:
The great sheet granite famine of 2008!!!
Cheapest 2/2 in Orchard Hills, which is kind of close to this NP Square Bolinas unit, is above $2K:
http://www.rental-living.com/Communities/Orchard-Hills/Prices-And-Floorplans/
Did Irvine have a hospital in 1967?
In the not so distant future, store merchandise will have RFID tags (same technology used in those tollroad transponders) that replace barcodes. You’ll just keep your groceries in the cart, computers will identify everything you have using nifty radio waves, you swipe your credit/debit card, and then walk out the door.
Rechecking Craigslist, I see 636 three+ bedrooms for under $3000 with keyword Irvine. Dropping the price to $2350, I get 261.
Competitive rent for the rest of Irvine would put this around $2300. Using a keyword of Northpark shows few rentals and they appear to be wishing prices.
NP is not the rest of Irvine NSR. Of course stuff in El Camino, Westpark, Woodbridge, etc. is going to rent for less. Per sf sales prices are less there too…
I’ll bet ya $5 that a search of leased properties on MLS turns up comparable units leased in NP for north of $2500. Should I call my realtor buddy and have him check? If I’m right, you can Paypal me the cash and I’ll add to the downpayment fund…
Or better yet, the loser donates the $10 to IRs tip jar and ole IR confirms it for us…
Hello All –
…just a quick question or clarification please – how is ‘high end, over 750K’ really high end if this basically represents a decent single family home? I’m new and don’t understand this as when I look at properties I see things that many would consider ‘junk’ for 500K – 650k…
Another thought is, if we are trying to figure out where the real bottom will be.. should we not consider that the median income in Irvine (or OC) is – about $85K (more than most of OC) for Irvine? If historically you can finance 3-4 times your annual salary with 20% down then housing has many hundreds of thousands to fall on average just to return to the historic average. Based on these historic facts how does anyone believe or make a case that prices won’t fall many hundreds of thousands of dollars for the average or median priced OC home? This is huge…how long does it take a family to SAVE 1-200K? Just some thoughts and questions…
Interest rates will fall precipitously in the near future. I don’t know ANYONE who reads the WSJ regularly who does not forsee a further drop in interest rates across the board. The Fed is on an easing cycle for Christ’s sake! GDP growth is down, unemployment is up, retail sales for December will come in weak, justifying the inexorable march downward in rates.
Look for 30-year jumbo fixed rates around 5% in 3Q 2008.
capworks – I seem to remember you saying the same thing a few months ago and saying Libor would come down as a result of Fed easing.
The key words are “he/she THINKS this is a deal”. I can see why the buyer would think so – although I don’t agree.
Right….
CW,
jumbo rates have skyrocketed again onto the 8% + stratosphere.
There is NO market for CDO’s backed with jumbo mortgages. ZERO.
“Anyone here think an extra 400sf, two car attached garage, only one common wall, no one above, below, etc. isn’t worth another couple of hundred per month more?”
Not for a depreciating asset.
If I still had enough money in the bank after a 30% down payment, and get a 30 year fixed with a payment slighlty above rent, I’d pull the trigger….maybe.
dude,
the website is bogus and the IAC have huge vacancy rates. There are ALWAYS move in deals. When I moved into my place in March, the rent on the website said it started at 1875 a month. We got one with a pet location (50 more per month) for 1785.
Capworks is a smarty then because LIBOR has come down quite a bit since the Fed started easing… I see 5.1% on the 1-year on the date of the first Fed decrease and 4.3%.
Wall Street is lobbying heavily for a rate cut by the Feds and stocks dropped two weeks ago when the cut was less than the street wanted. What the street wants and what the Fed does are not the same thing.
That said, there is a disconect between the Fed funds rate and interbank rates that’s not been seen before. Banks are afraid to loan to other banks. The mortgage you will get will be based on the banks belief that loaning you money is risky and therefore you will not get a mortgage at the Fed funds rate.
Bottom line, don’t count any future Fed interest rate cut being passed on to your greedly little paws anytime soon.
Everyone’s got an opinion, but those don’t set the market. Where the dollars go does. IAC, not IAC, whatever. Units like this Bolinas place rent for $2500-2700. That’s a fact Jack. If IRs 160 GRM indicates stable market value, this place will fall into the low $400s assuming rents stay constant. It’s got another 20% to go and probably will be a decent buy for a current renter after another 10-15% drop.
so roughly 14% of households in Irvine make over $150K
better buy quick, or we will all be priced out of the market
Alan, aren’t many adjustable mortgage rates tied to LIBOR? I think you said yours was… Hasn’t LIBOR been dropping since the Fed starting easing?
Wow…only 14% make $150K or better…? Just seems like this has been a something like a credit card deal… as long as a person could move their entire balance (their home debt) to a new card with an introductory rate of 0% for 6months to a year you could finance things well out of your fundamental range of affordability. When you don’t get those 0% transfer your balance in the mail anymore the music may have really stopped. What do you think? We could have 50% reductions in price of homes and rents with a recession…. tell me why this could be silly or wrong? The stats show that the vast majority of people cannot nearly afford what they have (own or rent) based on incomes..?? What do you think?? Help us all understand…
B
A little.
Libor (london-inter-bank-rate) tends to move slowly. The Brits have kept their interest rates higher then us Yanks but with the tsunade of subprime sweeping over their land also, recent runs on a bank and a tanking econcomy (they are worried about recession also) there is pressure on the British Central Bank to cut rates soon. I expect to benefit but 1/4 point up down doesn’t really amount to huge amounts of money to worry about in the grand scheme. I much prefer the 1 to 1 and half point cuts. That said, I had a brief window I could have fixed in the mid 4’s about 4 years ago but since my adjustable was also sub 5 I never got off my but and refinanced.
IPO, I don’t wish to contend the potential to get $2900 for it in NP. I suspect you’d find comparables, particularly for those using a RE Agent and MLS listing. I also suspect you’d have a fair chance of renting it for that.
There’s a major mitigating factor in NP. It’s new. I doubt you’ll find rentals for much less mainly because the owners can’t afford to rent for less, they’ll be cashflow negative.
If you want to live in NP and insist on doing so and don’t want to buy, you’ll have to pay. My point is more along the lines of how quickly you can substitute lesser rent for relatively equivalent properties and still remain in Irvine, with the majority of benefits of Irvine.
If you flex, you can remain in Irvine, and save $6000, $8000, maybe even $10,000 a year. Potentially save enough over a few years to make the downpayment on a future home purchase.
Even something as simple as doing an actual apartment with IAC near (in?) Northpark. Solana has a 3/2 Plan F for $2450. Estancia likewise has a 3/2 for $2420.
Both are smaller though with efficienct space utilization and have garages.
http://www.rental-living.com/Communities/Solana/Prices-And-Floorplans/
I don’t think I’d classify a full point drop year-over-year in LIBOR as little. The 1-year LIBOR has dropped by 18% over the past twelve months. Man, if you think that is slow, hate to see what you think is normal paced in an economy…
On a half-mil loan, that would save a borrower $275 per month. That’s a car lease. Not such a little thing IMO.
What income does it take to afford a $750K with a 20% down to afford this median or near average home? Is this anywhere near the average salary…? This seems to me to be the fundamental calculation. What do I make and what can I afford?
I hear ya NSR and totally agree. I personally wouldn’t rent in NP and pay the premium but obviously many others do and hence the premium exists. You are talking about smart consumer behavior and I’m talking about simple market dynamics. Rents are what they are. People are paying them. If rent prices and house prices are tied, one can’t say “oh people should live cheaper elsewhere and save money” to justify particular drops in housing prices.
If people will pay $2600 to rent one of these, they very likely pay $450K to buy it, all other things equal and given the current mortgage market environment. I know its not smart consumer behavior, but it is what it is.
Agreed. Herd think is strong.
I also agree on the pricing. With my tax rate, except for the down, renting versus buying is getting close if I would insist on being in NP.
Without kids, the price premium is doubly high for me over competing hoods. Still, the time is coming where the Irvine and potentially NP is needed.
Economists are projecting price declines of 100,000’s, see todays LA times:
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-oe-housingdenial28dec28,1,7942735.story?coll=la-mininav-business&ctrack=5&cset=true
Guys – Irvine is not just 1 neighborhood. Each area is different in terms of vacancy rates and amenties.
Quail Hill though desirable for us but might be having higher vacancy due to the new mega complex next to Spectrum. Hence, its rents are being impacted by that project. Just think, young single person, QH or Spectrum…pretty easy decision to me.
NP is very heavily occupied and the apt complexes in that area always tend to be full. Even if we don’t recognize why people like that area, people are stilling buying there and renting there. So what ipoplaya is saying is spot on. For this exact second in time, buying this unit would be better or same as renting. However, that doesn’t mean its a sound financial decision.
I keep a tab on my own apt complex by having craigslist RSS me any hits with my property name or phone number. The specials right now are over $100 a month from what I paid. I am renting a 1000+ sq ft 2b upgraded apartment for $1900 and the best offers right now are over $2000.
That’s a ripoff IMO. Not necessarily your place but over 2k a month places. You can live closer to the beach in a newer area of Irvine for that. Also think about who rents two bedroom units. Singles with roommates. You can rent a 2 bd beach house on the peninsula for that kind of money.
There’s going to be a lot of WTF rental asking prices in the next 12 months as desperate homedebtors try to offset their skyrocketing mortgage payments.
Is that HOUSEHOLD income or INDIVIDUAL income. Many families have 2 income earners, which can push the total household income up near 200k.
…fine lets say that HOUSEHOLD income is $200K – what can you afford? As far as I can see most people couldn’t afford to sell their own home to themselves! Please all, let’s have some facts.
B
Yep; that’s why there are and will be so many foreclosures. Stupid banks offered loans that couldn’t be afforded, and stupid consumers signed up.
Result: devastation.
Go back and read earlier posts on the blog starting in, say, May or June. It’s like watching a slow motion train wreck. Still is.
Here in sunny Florida, we couldn’t afford our own house. Even if you assume that the price is down 30% from the max, and we put 50% down, we couldn’t afford it. Luckily it’s now paid off, so all we have to afford is maintenance taxes and insurance. And yippee, insurance is down to a mere $3000.00, after inspection by guy authorized by the insurance company.
…now that’s an honest response. BTW. by someone who knew problems were coming and has resources. That said, this isn’t the norm be any means… I bet that we will find that most people who bought in the last 5 years are in serious trouble. In CA, we are on the verge of sifnificant declines because too many people pretended to be rich…only ugle from here and that is sad for responsible buyers like me. I am down more than $200K as of last weeks appraisel. I’m ok..I have a 30 yr. fixed but, it still is bad for me….
B
Someone, please make a case for why prices won’t decine by 50%. The rental market is about to be deluged by lower prices….
….don’t rely on stats that justify were things are.. think about were things will be based on fundamentals. you know the things that we all have to ultimately deal with.
I’ll play devil’s advocate.
(Irvine data from the link in an above post)
Houses: 53,712 (51,190 occupied: 30,691 owner occupied, 20,499 renter occupied)
% of renters here: 40%
% of renters in the state: 43%
Personally, with no real data to back it up, I think there’s a chance that rents will accelerate upward. That happened in the Bay Area this year when the real estate market hit hard times. Former homeowners became tenants and increased rental demand.
Anyone want to wager that median incomes will drop for 2007? There was a lot of lending employment in Irvine, especially subprime.
Online reference for border between Irvine and Tustin: Jamboree.
Sorry, I guess that needs clarification. when I talk about seeing an address, I meant that I fed it into google maps, so I knew roughly where it was. Obviously every address I’ve seen on this blog has Irvine, CA.