From the OC Register: “For the month of July 2007, sales for all types of Orange County home sales decreased 19.8 percent. The median sales price did not change. The median is where half the homes sold for more and half for less. Types of homes selling, as well as home value changes, cause the median to change.
“Change” is based on comparison to same period one year ago.”
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|
|
|||
|
code
|
|
|
||
|
92602
|
$746,500
|
0.6%
|
21
|
-8.7%
|
|
92603
|
$855,000
|
-37.5%
|
40
|
42.9%
|
|
92604
|
$637,500
|
-1.9%
|
21
|
0.0%
|
|
92606
|
$725,000
|
-3.3%
|
21
|
5.0%
|
|
92612
|
$745,000
|
15.7%
|
43
|
104.8%
|
|
92614
|
$503,000
|
-16.2%
|
10
|
-56.5%
|
|
92618
|
$590,000
|
-5.6%
|
22
|
46.7%
|
|
92620
|
$743,500
|
-11.3%
|
52
|
8.3%
|
Source: DataQuick
Is there a high foreclosure rate in 92603? Why has that zip been declining so far with a relatively high volume of sales? Does anyone have insight into this area of Irvine?
—–
L.A. Land: The Downpayment Dilemma
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2007/08/the-downpayment.html
The median down payment for first time homebuyers in California was $10,000 last year — which translates to about 2% down on a $450,000 home, the median price for first-time buyers; 40% of first-time buyers put nothing down.
————
There are more interesting stats here from the CAR 2006 report the pretty much profile who the 2006 buyers were, and you can make your own extrapolations as to whether or not they quality under the new tigher mortgage standards.
http://www.car.org/index.php?id=MzcwNzU=
IrvineRenter, you’re probably tired of me commenting on this chart, because my prior comments have basically criticized its statistically low power of resolution. But I do enjoy seeing it, and appreciate your unselfish work in providing it. And seeing 3/4 of the 8 zips in negative territory on this one makes me think we just might be seeing, finally, the first broad hard numerical data proving to everyone that Irvine prices are in decline.
By the way, I did a chart of average prices in each month for some of these zip codes, going back to 1998 or so. It shows some interesting patterns that I had fun speculating about. I’d prefer one with median price per square foot, but I don’t have enough historical data. Is there a way for a simple person like me to post a chart for others to see here, so they can speculate too?
Loan by Loan, the Making of a Credit Squeeze
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/19/business/yourmoney/19bankrupt.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1
Congress is looking hard at changing the bankruptcy law so courts can restructure home loans as they do other personal loans like credit card debt. The goal, proponents say, would be to update the bankruptcy code in line with realities of the modern mortgage market.
In Chapter 13, a borrower’s mortgage obligation remains intact. The most that a person gets is extra time to catch up on payments in arrears, but every nickel on the mortgage must be paid.
OC Register blog: Q&A with Wells Fargo exec on how the lender and consumers are navigating the mortgage meltdown
http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/2007/08/18/qa-with-wells-fargo-exec-on-how-the-lender-and-consumers-are-navigating-the-mortgage-meltdown/
It is difficult to feel sorry for people like the ones featured in this article — people who re-fi every two years in order to wipe out tens of thousands of credit card debt and then [SURPRISE!] can’t keep up their mortgage payments.
The media is starting to write lots of articles like this, portraying these people as victims of greedy, evil mortgage brokers. In most of these cases, though, the buyers don’t just get talked into a zero down, adjustable mortgage to buy a new home. They spend the next several years spending money they don’t have and re-financing every 2 years to (temporarily) pay for it all.
Maybe they should start giving IQ tests to would-be borrowers …
skye
It sounds like one of the borrowers in the story learned an important lesson and his story is a perfect example of why bailouts on either end of the transaction (lender/investor or borrower) are wrong. Those who take, and benefit from, risks should be exposed to the potential consequences:
For Mr. Cossette, 37, who is now a renter, homeownership no longer has much allure. “You put your life’s sweat into a piece of real estate that may or may not go up in value,” he said. “So I don’t have a house. That’s O.K. with me.”
Mr. Cossette said he may never again own a house. He would not consider buying, unless he could put 20 percent down, he said. His experience with the home lending system has left him understandably jaded, and he has a suggestion for policy makers.
“Hopefully, they will make it harder for people to buy houses in the long run,” Mr. Cossette said. “Maybe others can learn from this.”
Financial IQ test = can you save 20% down?
Housing: Looking Ahead
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/08/housing-looking-ahead.html
Read the comments too
======================================
albrt, I didn’t say RI would increase in ’08; I think it will bottom sometime in ’08. HUGE difference!
charlottemom, I’d like to reiterate the difference between an RI bottom (this post) and an existing home price bottom – something that I believe will happen several years from now.
4runner, I’m predicting price declines for existing homes for several years – there will be two bottoms for housing, the first for RI, the second – several years from now – for house prices.
Ottnott, Northern Cali, as I noted I also expect inventories to rise some more, but I think we are getting close to the peak in raw inventory. These are very tentative signs. I tried to emphasize VERY and TENTATIVE.
fredw, yes, I’m including the coming resets – and that is why I think the REO inventory will increase signficantly over the next year.
Anonymous, I’ll write on my economic predictions later this week (included by default in this analysis, but not expressed). Needless to say, I don’t think there will be a depression.
Best to all.
Calculated Risk | Homepage | 08.19.07 – 6:11 pm | #
Hi PR, I’d love to see your chart. If you convert it to a large picture file and then host it on photobucket, you could insert it into comments.
I don’t feel sorry for anyone going through BK due to buying stuff they never really needed like expensive toys, remodeling, or expensive vacations or paying down their credit cards using the equity of their home.
Were they thinking that there lives would end up like some Hollywood movie? Did they think they were special just because they had a family without thinking about the cost of doing so?
Southern California is becoming a tight fit
As more apartments and condos are built, traffic won’t be the region’s only kind of jam. In Orange County, multi-family homes have already overtaken the construction of single-family residences.
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-density6aug06,0,3122751.story?page=1
Irvine Soul Brother, I’ve just signed up to photobucket and uploaded a jpg picture of my chart. Here’s the link. I hope it works. Let me know if it doesn’t. I’m not expert on these things.
http://s220.photobucket.com/albums/dd320/daraghos/?action=view¤t=200708.18Irvinehomepricehistory.jpg
Wow! Thanks PR for doing that graph. If you put in the IMG code (“for forums and bulletin boards), you can make it display rather than being a link. I like how the upward trend starts to go south by the end! Do the sizes of the dots represent number of sales at that price point?
[IMG]http://i220.photobucket.com/albums/dd320/daraghos/200708.18Irvinehomepricehistory.jpg[/IMG]
Haha, oh well, I guess inserting the display on this section of the blog doesn’t work. Oh well! It should work in the forums though, I’ll try it there.
Tried to post this under “Southern California’s Cultural Pathology” thread, but that’s closed now, so posting here instead.
The pathology isn’t limited to Southern California. Working paper from the Fed. Lots of interesting statistics in here.
The Rise in US Household Indebtedness: Causes and Consquences
http://www.federalreserve.gov/Pubs/feds/2007/200737/200737pap.pdf
“Financial innovation also seems to have boosted debt, not primarily by increasing the share of households that are able to borrow but by increasing the amount of debt held by households that already had some access to borrowing”
Comment by v
“Were they thinking that there lives would end up like some Hollywood movie?”
I guess they never saw the ending in “Thelma and Louise.” Or maybe they were depending on a real-life freeze frame.
In the end, with the police on their tail, Thelma and Louise are cornered at the Grand Canyon. The two women kiss and agree that, rather than be captured or killed, they will drive off the cliff into the canyon. The film ends with a freeze frame of the car in midair at the height of its arc, so that the audience never sees their fall. End credits begin over a montage of their happiest moments together during the weekend.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thelma_&_Louise
Thelma & Louise – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Countrywide Begins Staff Layoffs
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118758059074702618.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uyOWuczlJCA&mode=related&search=
it’s about real estate bubble in 3 parts
OT, but there have been several comments here recently saying that the IRS may come with a tax bill if a house is sold for less than the owners’ mortgage debt. The NYT now has a story on this issue:
“After the Pain of Foreclosure, a Big Tax Bill”
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/20/business/20taxes.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
Re: Comment by Sue
2007-08-19 15:46:29
Financial IQ test = can you save 20% down?
…and do you have 12-36 months of monthly expenses *including house payment* and budget for lots of Ramen – in a bank savings account?
Guess the net result of this would be to turn a bunch of foreclosures into bankruptcies instead.
I’d be curious to see how a judge would handle what would essentially be a court ordered refi between the parties. So many issues. Here’s a fun one. What would be the new basis for property taxes?
If I were upside down in a property, I’d look at doing the BK as part of a sale. Whatever I get for my property I’d claim is the FMV, so the bank would be paid in full on the secured portion of the loan by receiving the proceeds of the sale. I’d walk with 3 years of payments on the unsecured portion, and discharge my credit cards and such as part of the same transaction.
Not a bad deal.
Might also provide additional downward pressure on prices. Banks try to squeeze every penny out of an REO. But a BK-bound consumer wouldn’t care. Take whatever you can get on a quick sale and let the bank eat the rest.
The median price decline could be that Turtle Ridge is finally built out.
The builder up there really charged stratospheric markups when compared with Turtle Rock.
Bonita Canyon has very low volume.
Eventually, based on volume, the prices on 92603 will once again be dominated by Turtle Rock.
Thanks! That was a really interesting video series to watch.
It’s starting to spread, looks like the rest will follow the leaders down…