From today’s OC Register: “For the 22 business days ending July 25, sales for all types of Orange County home sales decreased 18.9 percent. The median sales price increased 1.1 percent. The median is where half the homes sold for more and half for less. Types of homes selling, as well as home value changes, cause the median to change.“
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|||
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code
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from ’06
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from ’06
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92602
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$765,000
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4.8%
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23
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-30.3%
|
|
92603
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$918,000
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-6.6%
|
46
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12.2%
|
|
92604
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$626,250
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-6.8%
|
26
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13.0%
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92606
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$662,500
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-11.7%
|
30
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76.5%
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|
92612
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$900,000
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70.2%
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49
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250.0%
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92614
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$474,000
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-21.0%
|
12
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-52.0%
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92618
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$670,000
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15.8%
|
17
|
70.0%
|
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92620
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$748,500
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-17.4%
|
57
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-5.0%
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Source: DataQuick
Interesting group of data. The thing I look for is the side-by-side numbers having a negative correlation. Because the way it “should” go is that lower prices should make for higher sales volume and vice-versa. This is only true in half of the zip codes though, the first four: 92602, 92603, 92604 and 92606.
The reason this doesn’t hold is because of some other factors:
1. All of the money put into Irvine housing is not being put in evenly across the board. Possibly because:
2. The money that is being put in now represents some of the wiser “waiting in the wings” buyers who have decided that they are glad to save a certain % on some higher values homes that had previously languished on the market. (Not because the value of all homes in that zip code actually increased 20%). Wifey put the pressure on, she’s decided they’ve waited long enough. Bad stereotype sorry! It’s not true, it’s not true!
3. Buyers are more shrewd, joe sixpack has some idea that real estate doesn’t go up/in one direction forever (don’t worry, he’ll soon forget!) so Turtle Ridge and Quail Hill tank because more people put more dollars elsewhere where it seems more practical. Hence, a redistribute investment of Irvine housing capital.
4. Sales reflect closure of a deal, so some of this stuff was apparently purchased months or even more than a year ago (someone else said this).
Some NOT reasons:
1. Statistical noise: with a data set of this size, that’s not really a problem. The only thing to acknowledge is that real estate always always is skewed positively, and that is why we use median (middie value) instead of mean
2. The market is recovering. Well, I’m not going to touch that one. 92612 is not spearheading the movement to save the inflated prices. It will be fun to watch that one drop though. ::insert slide whistle sound here::
Anyway, that’s all I have to say about that.
—–
92612 is only up because of the condos closing at The Plaza. They counted for 21 of the 49 sales and they are not cheap. Go here http://cr.ocgov.com/grantorgrantee/searchPersonsName.asp and in the last name input plaza-ir and a date range of 6/26/07 to 7/25/07 for the range of the data above. Then google some of the names and you will see that a lot of these people have a lot of money.
The Plaza looks more like a who’s who of Iran
welcome to Irvine….mini teheran!!!
one of them is tawny kitaen…is that the actress.
The “wifey” comment is dead-on. You can make all the economic arguments available for renting being a far better decision right now, but there are many pressures and factors in play other than a home’s investment value.
And sales data for the last 22 business days is definitely statistical noise; but so is every foreclosure/distressed sale discussed here.
what is scary is the fact that “wifey”is a realtor
One street’s subprime struggle
Foreclosures and forced sales mar a Santa Ana street after years of subprime lending.
http://www.ocregister.com/money/loans-camile-percent-1806121-subprime-loan
yes, the actress; and scott boras, famous / infamous sports agent
These times are so exciting! wow, I’m blessed to have started reading about bubbles about a year and a half ago!..
Woohoo..I’m in cash right now and can’t wait till the housing bubble bursts as with the markets too!
I’m betting 08 will be great..It’s like the dutch tulip situation back in the day.
There’s gotta be a sucker in every transaction.
I’m going to treat home sellers like I treat a car salesmen. I’m going to so lowball them..hahahaha they’re going to love every minute of it too.
LA Times Foreclosure Zip Code Tool
Foreclosures: How does your ZIP Code fare?
Repossessions are homes reclaimed by lenders. Resales are lender-reclaimed homes that have been resold. This database shows figures for Southern California ZIP Codes for the second quarter of 2007 (April-June).
http://www.latimes.com/la-foreclosures-db,0,549275.formprofile?coll=la-home-center
On L.A.’s edges, soaring repossessions could set off a downward spiral.
http://www.latimes.com/la-fi-vacant12aug12,0,4584754.story?coll=la-home-center
Major lenders are repossessing homes in Southern California much faster than they can sell them, a development that could set off a downward spiral of price cuts and more foreclosures.
Southern California’s hardest-hit areas — the impact zone — will be the Inland Empire, the high desert and the northern reaches of L.A. County. These are where foreclosures are the greatest and, as a result, the market is weakest.
Scott Boras? Oh jeez, he is known for getting people to overpay for things (namely baseball players)… now it looks like he’s doing it himself.
And how can the ex Mrs. Chuck Finley afford a place here?