There is a raging bull market in 92603! 92620, not so much.
19 thoughts on “Home Sales Data thru 5-8-2007”
bigmoneysalsa
With all due respect, aren’t these monthly zip code breakdowns pretty much a waste of time? The sample sizes involved are way too small to conclude much.
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IrvineRenter
The data posts are intended to stimulate conversation. They are no substitute for a detailed statistical analysis. Watching these each week, we can conclude two things: prices are declining, and volume is declining.
The statistical blips like 92603 a fodder for humor. I thought the sarcasm was evident.
Irvine Renter
We all know the New House sales stats are based on contracts and not closings. Is there any way to get the actual new homes closing numbers, by zip?
If builders are still running at 30-50 % cancellation rates it would be very interesting to see what the real numbers look like
GrewUpInIrvine
IrvineRenter –
Keep up the great work… it is appreciated.
Major Schadenfreude
Nothing wrong here.
Just your average “soft landing”!
graphrix
Only the banks are buying the low end properties in 92603. That would explain why the median is so high.
IR – IIRC DataQuick includes new home sales that have recorded in their numbers. I think that would explain the increase in volume for 92612 with The Plaza and Avenue One closings.
Irvine Soul Brother
When you say that only the banks are buying those low end properties, do you mean through foreclosures?
graphrix
Unfortunately yes I mean through foreclosures. 212 Dewdrop 92603 was bought by the bank for $477k yesterday. I wish I had access to every foreclosure but what I do have access to is not pretty.
carl
Watching the noise is actually a lot of fun, IrvineRenter. I used to live in 92603 (in a “low end” SFR, haha) and it is amazing how many gorgeous expensive homes are in that zip! Over the last year, the median has jumped between about 800k and 1.6M. In my line of work, we would call that “unstable”. Not a market I would want to get involved in…
Carl
No_Such_Reality
I thought foreclosures ended up being included in DataQuick’s numbers?
If so, can someone take a spin in 92603 and see how many NOTs were listed for those dates?
cadaigo
I saw a NOD in Shady Canyon. First one I’ve seen in there. There is alot of inventory in there for few homes.
lendingmaestro
92603 “median” sales price can be thrown way out of whack quickly if one of those multi million dollar homes sell in Shady Canyon.
92612 is the UCI zipcode. Lots of condos, lots of well-to-do parents buying rentals for their college kids
Irvine Soul Brother
Maestro, remember that “median” means “middle value,” not average. So, even if you have a big sale or a few, it will not pull up the value that much. That’s why median is used in real estate as a measure of central tendency. A real estate data set includes outliers in the upper range (like the Shady Cyn potential you mentioned) and luckily median is not swayed as much by this.
Justin
“92612 with The Plaza and Avenue One closings.”
I can’t believe those closing actually brought down the median price a small percentage, imagine how bad that area of concrete boxes would be doing without all those high priced high rise sales.
lendingmaestro
When there are few sales and the majority of homes that actually do sell are multi-million dollar properties than it will have a damatic effect. These homes are purchased by people who don’t have to worry about money.
These stats only relect the median price of the homes that actually sold within a small time frame. These are not the estimates of the median price of all the homes in 92603. I am quite familiar with the concept of median.
Without a doubt the properties valued between 500k and 1 million have decreased in sales because the people who buy these properties require financing and are not uber-rich. On the contrary people who have substantial wealth and don’t require aggressive financing will continue to purchase regardless of the market.
fumbling
it’s sad to see the pacificbeach and ocfliptrack blogs stopping, so irvinehousingblog remains my daily fix on real estate, and besides, i’m seriously thinking of moving to wonderful irvine so any and all postings are greatly appreciated (esp. the wtf ones)! just waiting for an indepth look on the high rise market since a lot of them are closing as shown in the home sales data.
IrvineRenter
Irvine Renter,
If you plan to post more frequently — which I encourage you to do — you should probably select a new blog name. Sharing a name with a blog administrator will be confusing.
graphrix
I have heard that DQ includes trustees sales as well. But there is a problem in this method since the every once in a while banks will buy the property back for much less than the notice of sale amount.
It wouldn’t be in those numbers yet but 212 Dewdrop was bought by the bank on the 31st for $477k.
Thisblogsavedme100K
I wish someone could do a detailed look at Turtle Ridge, where I live. I see the forsale signs for a few months, then they turn into rental signs. Can’t be a good sign. 😉 Damn signs pop up like mushrooms here! Seems like I see the repoman hauling off the occasional beeeeeeemeeer too!
With all due respect, aren’t these monthly zip code breakdowns pretty much a waste of time? The sample sizes involved are way too small to conclude much.
—–
The data posts are intended to stimulate conversation. They are no substitute for a detailed statistical analysis. Watching these each week, we can conclude two things: prices are declining, and volume is declining.
The statistical blips like 92603 a fodder for humor. I thought the sarcasm was evident.
We all know the New House sales stats are based on contracts and not closings. Is there any way to get the actual new homes closing numbers, by zip?
If builders are still running at 30-50 % cancellation rates it would be very interesting to see what the real numbers look like
IrvineRenter –
Keep up the great work… it is appreciated.
Nothing wrong here.
Just your average “soft landing”!
Only the banks are buying the low end properties in 92603. That would explain why the median is so high.
IR – IIRC DataQuick includes new home sales that have recorded in their numbers. I think that would explain the increase in volume for 92612 with The Plaza and Avenue One closings.
When you say that only the banks are buying those low end properties, do you mean through foreclosures?
Unfortunately yes I mean through foreclosures. 212 Dewdrop 92603 was bought by the bank for $477k yesterday. I wish I had access to every foreclosure but what I do have access to is not pretty.
Watching the noise is actually a lot of fun, IrvineRenter. I used to live in 92603 (in a “low end” SFR, haha) and it is amazing how many gorgeous expensive homes are in that zip! Over the last year, the median has jumped between about 800k and 1.6M. In my line of work, we would call that “unstable”. Not a market I would want to get involved in…
Carl
I thought foreclosures ended up being included in DataQuick’s numbers?
If so, can someone take a spin in 92603 and see how many NOTs were listed for those dates?
I saw a NOD in Shady Canyon. First one I’ve seen in there. There is alot of inventory in there for few homes.
92603 “median” sales price can be thrown way out of whack quickly if one of those multi million dollar homes sell in Shady Canyon.
92612 is the UCI zipcode. Lots of condos, lots of well-to-do parents buying rentals for their college kids
Maestro, remember that “median” means “middle value,” not average. So, even if you have a big sale or a few, it will not pull up the value that much. That’s why median is used in real estate as a measure of central tendency. A real estate data set includes outliers in the upper range (like the Shady Cyn potential you mentioned) and luckily median is not swayed as much by this.
“92612 with The Plaza and Avenue One closings.”
I can’t believe those closing actually brought down the median price a small percentage, imagine how bad that area of concrete boxes would be doing without all those high priced high rise sales.
When there are few sales and the majority of homes that actually do sell are multi-million dollar properties than it will have a damatic effect. These homes are purchased by people who don’t have to worry about money.
These stats only relect the median price of the homes that actually sold within a small time frame. These are not the estimates of the median price of all the homes in 92603. I am quite familiar with the concept of median.
Without a doubt the properties valued between 500k and 1 million have decreased in sales because the people who buy these properties require financing and are not uber-rich. On the contrary people who have substantial wealth and don’t require aggressive financing will continue to purchase regardless of the market.
it’s sad to see the pacificbeach and ocfliptrack blogs stopping, so irvinehousingblog remains my daily fix on real estate, and besides, i’m seriously thinking of moving to wonderful irvine so any and all postings are greatly appreciated (esp. the wtf ones)! just waiting for an indepth look on the high rise market since a lot of them are closing as shown in the home sales data.
Irvine Renter,
If you plan to post more frequently — which I encourage you to do — you should probably select a new blog name. Sharing a name with a blog administrator will be confusing.
I have heard that DQ includes trustees sales as well. But there is a problem in this method since the every once in a while banks will buy the property back for much less than the notice of sale amount.
It wouldn’t be in those numbers yet but 212 Dewdrop was bought by the bank on the 31st for $477k.
I wish someone could do a detailed look at Turtle Ridge, where I live. I see the forsale signs for a few months, then they turn into rental signs. Can’t be a good sign. 😉 Damn signs pop up like mushrooms here! Seems like I see the repoman hauling off the occasional beeeeeeemeeer too!