Dumb, Dumber and Dumberer

dumb and dumber

It is said that speculative manias like the one gripping our housing market are a form of mass insanity. I have speculated it is a manifestation of Southern California’s Cultural Pathology. Whatever the truth, the results of herd mentality can be seen in our local housing market.

29 Marsala Front29 Marsala Kitchen

Asking Price: $639,800

Purchase Price: $183,500IrvineRenter

Purchase Date: 2/2/1995

Address: 29 Marsala, Irvine, CA 92606

Beds: 3

Baths: 2

Sq. Ft.: 1,070

Lot Sq. Ft.: 2,975

Year Built: 1995

Stories: 1WTF

Type: Single Family Residence

County: Orange

Neighborhood: Westpark

$/Sq. Ft.: $598

MLS#: S483960

Status: Active on market

On Redfin: 36 days

From Redfin, “Desirable End of Cul-De-Sac Private Location. Single Level. Highly Upg raded with Hardwood & Designer Ceramic Tile Flooring, Upgraded Wall-to-Wall Carpeting, Tile Kitchen Counters, Microwave, Dishwasher & Oven Included, Plantation Shutters, Custom Drapes, Window Blinds, Mirrored Wardrobes, Rollup Garage Door, Vaulted Ceilings, Recessed Lighting, New Custom Paint, Built-in Entertainment Center and Large Private Backyard”

Two bedrooms, 1000 SF and they want $598 SF? WTF! They didn’t even update the old white tile with granite tops.

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(No Pictures Available, but it is identical to the other two listings)

Asking Price: $599,900

Purchase Price: $595,000IrvineRenter

Purchase Date: 12/16/2005

Address: 15 Marsala, Irvine, CA 92606

Beds: 2

Baths: 2

Sq. Ft.: 1,000

Year Built: 1995

Stories: 1WTF

Type: Single Family Residence

County: Orange

Neighborhood: Westpark

$/Sq. Ft.: $600

MLS#: S489460

Status: Active on market

On Redfin: 1 day

From Redfin, “Single level detached home with 2 private yards. Cathedral ceilings, p lantation shutters, designer carpeting, travertine flooring in the kitchen. Living room with fireplace. Mirrored wall in living room. Mirrored wardrobe doors and built-in shelves in closets.”

IMO, this is the buyer / flipper / seller who started this mess, but more on that later…

6 Marsala Front6 Marsala Kitchen

Asking Price: $619,900

Purchase Price: $227,000IrvineRenter

Purchase Date: 5/25/1999

Address: 6 Marsala, Irvine, CA 92606

Beds: 2

Baths: 2

Sq. Ft.: 1,000

Year Built: 1995

Stories: 1WTF

Type: Single Family Residence

County: Orange

Neighborhood: Westpark

$/Sq. Ft.: $620

MLS#: S483966

Status: Active on market

On Redfin: 36 days

From Redfin, “BEAUTIFUL TWO BEDROOMS AND TWO BATHROOMS SINGLE STORY DETACHED HOME IN WEST PARK 2, LOCATED IN A QUITE AND INTERIOR NEIGHBORHOOD. LAMINATE WOOD FLOORING IN LIVING ROOM, DINING ROOM, AND KITCHEN. PLANTATION SHUTTERS AND NEW CUSTOM PAINT, THROUGHOUT THE HOUSE. NICE BACKYARD AND SIDE YARD, VERY OPEN FLOOR PLAN. SHORT WALK TO SCHOOL, THREE ASSOC. POOLS AND SPA, TWO TENNIS COURTS AND PARKS. TWO CAR ATTACHED GARAGE.”

ALL CAPS IS REALLY ANNOYING! This is another tiny, 2 bedroom unit where they didn’t bother to update anything.

Let’s look at these three properties and see what we can determine. First, the $600 SF pricing is ridiculous. Most of Westpark is priced in the $400s per SF, and even the overpriced smaller products are in the low $500s. There is no justification for thinking $600SF is a good price. For the same $600,000 asking price, one could buy 37 Alcoba, 1407 SF, 3/2. For $500,000, one could by 6 Marbela, a 1083, 2/2. Both of those Westpark properties give much more for much less, and they have been on the market for over 280 days. So why do the sellers on Marsala believe they can get $600 SF?

Perhaps this is an instance of setting one’s own comps. The seller at 15 Marsala paid almost $600 SF at the end of 2005. I would imagine when the other two properties went on the market last month, they used 15 Marsala as a comparable, and they figured their properties must be worth $600 SF.WTF

Are you starting to get a sense for how the “greater fool” theory operates? 15 Marsala was a fool when they paid $600 SF at the end of 2005, now they and two of their neighbors (dumb, dumber, and dumberer) all need to find a greater fool to buy them out.

For their collective greed and stupidity, for believing their little neighborhood is “different,” and for setting their prices 20% to 30% above the market, all three sellers on Marsala get our WTF Award.

24 thoughts on “Dumb, Dumber and Dumberer

  1. carl

    IrvineRenter,

    While I agree that the Marsala properties deserve the WTF award, I don’t think 37 Alcoba or 6 Marbela are fair comparisons. You say they offer more for less but they are in fact condos. Even though the Marsala properties are so small, they are SFRs and that means something to a lot of people (myself included).

    Carl
    —–

  2. IrvineRenter

    I agree that being detached has some value. I would prefer that to a shared wall; however, it isn’t worth an extra 20%. Personally, I would put up with a shared wall if I got an extra bedroom, an additional 400 SF and an updated interior or saved 20% on the purchase price. Perhaps it’s just me.

  3. William Jones

    Slightly off-topic (I know) but driving home yesterday I heard an ad on the radio for a 50-year fixed rate mortgage. At the top of Japan’s bubble they were advertisting 100-year mortgages.

    I can’t imagine taking out a 50-year mortgage, can anyone else?

  4. SoCalwatcher

    Nice little houses, but where is the driveway??

    I wish I would have bought one of those ten years ago…. Talk about a nice ROI!!!

    $600/sq ft is absolutely insane for those houses.

  5. Chuck Ponzi

    Keep in mind that they say “SFR”, but in reality they are just Detatched Condos. There are very few actual “SFRs” in Irvine, and certainly nowhere near these “Houses”.

    It only means something when you can expand the property and have land to build on. Something none of these properties have. Besides the CC&Rs are restrictive enough you need to get permission from the Holy Pope before planting rose bushes out front.

    SFR, my ass.

    Chuck Ponzi

  6. Irvine_Native

    Go take a drive to Eccelstone circle to see what not having rules gets you. Its near Yale and the railroad.

  7. carl

    Wow, Chuck, you sure don’t like zero-lot line construction now, do you? 😉 I owned a zero-lot line house in Turtle Rock, and it was much better than a condo. The shared wall of an apartment or condo is much worse because you have to listen to another family, and depend on them to act responsibly when issues arise.

    One nice thing about the zero-lot line is the privacy. When I was in my back yard in Turtle Rock, I didn’t have any neighbor’s kitchen window staring me down, as they do in SFRs in Costa Mesa or Orange, for example. It was nice, and made the yard feel a bit like a spanish courtyard. Maybe I’m weird like that.

    The CC&Rs SUCKED. I used to get threatening letters about my grass being too brown, or my front wall being too chipped. Puh-leeese!

    On the whole, I do agree that the detached nature of the home probably isn’t worth 20%, especially when the property is smaller.

    IrvineRenter, are there any neighboorhoods in Irvine with good, old fashioned SFRs? Northwood, perhaps?

  8. carl

    I think the idea is that you plan to refinance or resell the property, but you have the piece-of-mind that the payment won’t jump on you like an ARM. It seems weird though… deliberately taking on a debt you most likely could never repay in your lifetime. Do the lenders think your children will assume the mortgage when you die?

  9. Irvine_Native

    Yep. Northwood. No HOA, no CC&R. You are free to build a fort on your property like that guy on Eccelstone circle. I’ll gladly put up with HOA rules if it means my neighbor can’t build a fort (with Turrets!).

  10. Joe Cactus

    I think the bubble is even distorting that first picture of the kitchen … 😛 Gotta love it when they start using fisheye lenses (or photoshop) to capture the expansiveness of the 1000sft.

    How about the 3 bedroom typo? Deliberate?

  11. No_Such_Reality

    University Park, Woodbridge, Deerfield, all recent reviews here. Of course, the prices for the SFRs are ugly.

  12. Ranger Rick

    I’ve got a brother in law that was telling me about these the other day. He also stated that Japan had those 100yr mortgages. He is currently selling or maybe I should say attempting to sell his place. I think it was some kind of justification on how another FB was going to pay his ridiculous asking price. In my opinion the 3D’s are taking place….Denial…Delusion….Dementia.

  13. bkshopr

    In all fairness, these are single story homes. The entire 1,000 sf is spread across the site therefore the required lot size is much bigger. The value ratio should not be compared to home of two story. These were the Cal Pacific Homes early clusters and the lot size is think is about 2,400sf. The actual home footprint is around 1,475 sf inclusive of the garage footprint. and about another 900 sf for the yard and sideyard. Land value is the driving force behind the higher value ratio. Single story homes are rare for todays standard and there is a premium associated with it.

    I should buy it and add a 1400 sf addition at a cost of $140,000 and my final footage will be 2400 sf. May be then I can flip it for $800,000 and make virtually nothing. This will never pencil out.

    Todays land cost would dictate an entire different floor plan solution for this home. The 1000 sf would be spread 3 levels so the footprint of the home would take up the least amount of land. As a result this new solution will get closer to affordability. The land usage would be about 800 sf just enough for the 425 sf garage, stairs, a modest foyer and may be a token backyard just to satisfy the local building code for building separation. A saving of 1600 sf of land would make a difference in selling price.

    Here is a word of wisdom for buyers out there. The footage of the home is what everyone uses to value their homes. In reality the driving force behind the value is directly tie to lot size and expansion potential.

  14. Saving up

    If these are detached condos, aren’t you better off buying a brand new one in Woodbury or Portola Springs? If I remember correctly, you can get a larger (1,400+ sf) unit for the same price!

  15. Saving up

    bkshopr,

    You are correct. Let me ask you though – In a real world situation, since this is Irvine and their CC&Rs, do you think the expansion potential for this older unit is worth the premium?

  16. Chuck Ponzi

    Hey, I’ve even owned one of these Zero Lot Lame houses. the grouping backed to a busy street so the sound of passing cars ricocheted through the complex and got amplified in certain spots.

    My problem is when agents misrepresent the properties. It’s a condo. It may not have a shared wall (except when neighbor kids use your wall as a bouncing board for their tennis ball), but it’s still a condo. That means restrictions… lots of them.

    And… most importantly, condos require different rules about financing. Even detatched condos. Tell me… what’s fun about getting into escrow and the lender pulling funding because they realized the legal description on the title search is a condo. Don’t think it happens? It does.

    They’re doing their seller a disservice in a slow market. They’re trying to lure suckers in. Welcome to the sleazy world of property marketing. Keep arms and legs inside the ride at all times. Remember, playing by the rules means you lose.

    Chuck Ponzi

  17. Chuck Ponzi

    The reality is that you wouldn’t get a zoning permit to expand your property.

    The land was zoned for a specific house square footage to lot square footage ratio. Unless someone went back and got a zoning variance, you’re dead in the water. (if you know someone big in the local politics, you might be able to swing it for a few hundred thousand dollars… maybe you and neighbors can chip in on bribe money).

    Any enhancement to square footage without a permit is going to require that it be ripped down at the minimum before the next sale. If zoning officials find out while you’re living there, they’ll condemn your place and you’ll be living at the Holiday Inn until it gets restored.

    Irvine is the Nazi concentration camps of zoning laws.

    Don’t F*** with the Irvine Company or its attendant minions.

    Chuck Ponzi

  18. No_Such_Reality

    There is no expansion potential. Look at the pictures, it’s detached but has about 6 feet between it’s house wall and the wall next to it.
    There is no space to expand, it is house, patio, garage, and sideyard that is a bush, 2 foot of gross, small bush and the neighbors house wall.

  19. buster

    There are some decent (by Irvine standards) SFRs in The Willows. Looks kind of run down, but a lot of people are fixing them up. You can get a 4-BR, 2-BA 1,400 sf on a real lot for less then these clowns are asking. It will take $75,000 to make it pretty darn nice (wood floors, great kitchen, updated baths, paint, etc). But then you have a real SFR with fruit trees in the back and room to expand. No Mello Roos, no association, so you can pretty much do whatever you want (but your neighbor can also paint their house polkdots if they want). Downside – fairly close to the train tracks.

  20. Darin

    I’m always amazed at how seller’s realtors can get 2-3% or 4-6% as the dual agent and misspell with caps lock.

    “BEAUTIFUL TWO BEDROOMS AND TWO BATHROOMS SINGLE STORY DETACHED HOME IN WEST PARK 2, LOCATED IN A QUITE AND INTERIOR NEIGHBORHOOD.

    Yes, indeed, it must be quite a neighboorhood for you to think you’ll get 12K to 30K+ in commission and lack simple professionalism.

  21. IrvineRenter

    Any mortgage over 30 years doesn’t make much sense because the payment differential is so small. IMO, if you can’t afford a 30 year amortized payment, you can’t afford the property, but that aside, to go with a 50 year mortgage is almost no different than going interest only.

  22. Maureen

    No the 3 bd isn’t a typo. My sister and her husband bought one of these several years ago and there’s an office nook off the living room that can be enclosed to make a third ‘bedroom’ — although I wouldn’t want to sleep in any bed that would fit into the space.

    There’s a true 3 bd model (1300 sq. ft on 2 floors) for sale at 30 Le Vanto for 648k, making 639k for the 1070 sq. ft. model even more insane.

    Oh, and the driveways are shared. They aren’t making more land, you know. Wouldn’t want to waste any of it letting you park your car in your own driveway. But I live way out east. I probably just expect too much from a half million dollar home.

  23. tonye

    In Irvine you can do 50% coverage of your lot, including garage.

    That’s how it’s zoned. I should know, I rebuilt my home in T/R.

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