Some SoCal News

From the Press-Telegram: “Housing market’s looking positive – About 12,000 Realtors gathered in Long Beach for three days last week to hear the fate of the market at the California Realtor Expo 2006 at the convention center. A housing report delivered at the conference on Wednesday forecast the median home price to fall slightly for the first time in 10 years. But most Realtors spoken with at the conference viewed the market with optimism, as did those who compiled the numbers.”

“The experts offered mostly positive outlooks for the 2007 economy and housing market for California, despite the expected drop in the median home price and a foreclosure report issued on Wednesday that showed the number of foreclosure notices sent to Californians rose to double what it was last year. Cagan discussed a study he recently released on housing resets, which looks at the impact of adjustable mortgages resetting to a higher rate after a three or so year period of fixed rates. Cagan said foreclosures will have some effect on the market, but it won’t be anything like the gloom and doom scenario of a bursting real estate bubble.

From the OC Register: “Reporter Jeff Collins joins the record numbers taking the state’s real estate license exam and struggles to avoid becoming one of the thousands who fail.”

“The number of tests administered in this state increased from about 34,000 in fiscal year 1997-98 to more than 185,000 in fiscal year 2005-06. Of those, nearly 24,000 tests were taken this past year right here in Anaheim, the fourth-busiest of the state’s 13 test sites.”

“Orange County had the second-highest number of real estate license holders in California, second only to Los Angeles.”

From the Press Enterprise: “UCLA economist Ryan Ratcliff called the recent report by Moody’s Economy.com, which forecast home prices in Riverside and San Bernardino counties to drop almost 12 percent, a bit drastic. … ‘We definitely think the real price of houses will fall, but you won’t see it in the nominal price of the home, or what’s on the price tag,’ Ratcliff said.”

“Redlands-based economist John Husing said he expects the Inland region’s steady population growth to help it bounce back from the housing slowdown before the rest of the state. ‘The Inland market is in a little bit better shape than other places because it’s still so much less expensive than the coast,’ he said. ‘The growth in Orange County is basically done.’ “

Also from the Press Enterprise: “Commuters looking for a cheaper place to live are still gazing east toward Riverside and San Bernardino counties, even though apartment rents have risen 6 percent since this time last year, according to a report released last week. Inland-area rents have risen to an average of $1,129, but that’s still cheaper than a $1,546 average monthly rent payment in Orange and Los Angeles counties, according to RealFacts Inc.”

” ‘Because house prices are high and interest rates are high, the monthly payment for homes is substantially higher than rent,’ she said ‘(Homebuyers) right now are sitting on the sidelines,’ and renting while they wait out the housing price dip, she said. Land in Los Angeles and Orange County is still expensive and sparse, which makes the Inland region more attractive for dense apartment buildings, said Jack Keyser, chief economist of the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp. But many homeowners say ‘not in my backyard’ when dense rental development is proposed”

6 thoughts on “Some SoCal News

  1. oc_fliptrack

    The RE permabulls see a (seasonal) dip in inventory and now they’re all over the news calling the bottom. I don’t buy it.

    Months of inventory, active/pending ratios, interest rates, foreclosure trends. Funny how the bulls aren’t discussing any of these. Interest rates are of particular interest — When the yield curve reverts, it’ll be another pin jabbed into the housing bubble.
    —–

  2. anonymous

    the agents and analysts can talk all they like, i waiting for the day to buy my next 4/2.5/2000 home for $350k!!! 🙂

    our day will come!

  3. DrHousingBubble

    Let me get this straight, foreclosures in Orange County are up 101% year-on-year and they are positive for 2007? Over 25% of job growth in California for the past five years has been tied to real estate and they are positive? Did they miss the story about WaMu laying off 9,300 people? They also sent over 3,000 jobs to India (I wonder how they’ll be buying SoCal real estate from Bangalore?). Or maybe they didn’t read the story about National City setting aside $73 million for bad loans, up 30 percent.

    Nope, 2007 will be a-okay because the realtors said so! Go out and buy! Stated income for everyone! Free granite countertops for Christmas! Asking the realtors about the health of the economy next year is like asking my barber whether I need a haircut.

  4. sidelined_buyer

    how about 5bd/3ba/2100 for $450k in Mission Viejo? Older seller, has lots of cushion to work with.

    MLS# P543747

  5. rerip2007

    “the agents and analysts can talk all they like, i waiting for the day to buy my next 4/2.5/2000 home for $350k!!! ”

    Dont be surprised if your 4/2.5/2000 home is offered at or under $300K when all is said and done. Just have your down payment and good credit ready in 2009.

  6. Jerry

    I’ve been here since Spring 04, I didn’t buy right away – I couldn’t understand the disparity between the rent / own costs. I moved from the east coast where (at the time) owning was cheaper than renting. That money savings was the only reason I bought there. In Irvine, I can’t make the numbers work.

    No matter how I look at it – it’s far cheaper to rent. I can rent a SFH is a very nice neighborhood or buy a condo in the hood for the same price – that’s not a tough decision as far as I can tell. Perhaps this correction will change the equation, but it would have to be a very significant correction.

    My person prediction is that we will have a slow decline over several years while the rest of the economy catches up. O.C. is becoming the new Japan.

    But that’s just my opinion, I could be wrong.

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