When people strategically default, are they ruthlessly ripping off their lender or merely deciding when they face the inevitable loss of their home?
Irvine Home Address … 27 MOMENTO Irvine, CA 92603
Resale Home Price …… $1,800,000
Photographs and memories
Christmas cards you sent to me
All that I have are these
To remember you
Memories that come at night
Take me to another time
Back to a happier day
When I called you mine
Jim Croce — Photographs and Memories
People form strong attachments to their homes. Walking away is never a decision they take lightly. We can discuss the pros and cons and come up with our own beliefs and attitudes about it, but the turnover of our housing stock caused by the housing crash will be very painful for those who go through it.
Ruthless default or accelerated default? 
I write often about hidden premises buried within the arguments writers make. These distinctions are important, and unless we uncover our fallacious beliefs, we make erroneous judgments and carry false beliefs. I have written many times about strategic default, and in my last post on the subject, I uncovered something new.
There is no accepted definition of strategic default. Lenders have tried to define the issue as any borrower who is capable of making a payment and chooses not to. On the surface that sounds reasonable, but that misses a very important distinction. Some people chose to default because they know they can't afford the home and they are merely choosing the timing of the inevitable.
When I think about strategic default, I think about people who chose the timing of their default when there is little reasonable hope of having equity and they are facing escalating payments. The only thing strategic about the default is the timing, not whether or not they will lose the home.
True strategic default — a default by a non-distressed homeowner who can afford the payment on a fixed-rate amortizing mortgage — is rare. In cases where the owner is severely underwater and they can rent for far less than their current payment, the incentive certainly exists, but most borrowers in that circumstance with a fixed-rate mortgage will chose to ride out the collapse. The borrowers with most incentive to default are those with toxic financing or temporary loan modifications that know they are facing an increased debt and an increasing payment. When those borrowers default on their own schedule, is their default truly strategic or merely accelerated?
Although attitudes toward strategic default are changing quickly, for now most borrowers still think it's a bad idea.
Mortgage Is a Priority, Foreclosure Is a Reality
By Carmen Nobel 06/10/10
SILVER SPRING, Md. (TheStreet) — Among the lousy home-foreclosure reports comes encouraging news from the National Foundation for Credit Counseling: Most Americans at least think that foreclosing on their homes is a bad idea.
The NFCC's Financial Literacy Survey found that only 23% of respondents consider it justifiable to default on a mortgage even if the property value is now lower than the amount of money owed on the mortgage. When asked if they would be more likely to keep their mortgage or their credit cards current, 91% said they would pay their mortgage first.
They should ask that same question to people who are underwater and see if they get a different response. I suspect they would.
Americans continue to prioritize their obligation to service their mortgage loan, and this is indeed good news for homeowners, mortgage lenders and the housing market overall," NFCC spokeswoman Gail Cunningham said in a statement.
But the reality seems less rosy. The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one- to four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 10.1% of all outstanding home loans at the end of the first quarter, an increase of 59 basis points from the fourth quarter, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure processes started in the first quarter was 1.23%, up three basis points from the previous quarter. The total percentage of loans in foreclosure at the end of the first quarter was a record 4.63%.
The serious delinquency rate, including both foreclosures and loans more than 90 days past due, was 9.54% at the end of March, a slight decrease from the previous quarter but an increase of 2.3% over the first quarter of 2009.
This is strong evidence that most of the defaults are not strategic but out of necessity. Most people are delinquent because they cannot make the payments not because they choose to default. However, as more in the media question this choice, many more will continue to chose accelerated default.
Know when to walk away
I never thought I would write something like this. I used to believe that it was wrong to just walk away from a home. I am not talking about taking the dog for a walk — I am talking about not paying the mortgage and leaving.
Yes we all signed legal documents that say we have to pay back our mortgages, but some people can't, and as we all know, many owe more on their homes then they can be sold for. In the past I have represented sellers who sold their homes because they could no longer afford the payments due to a change in their life circumstances, like divorce or the death of a spouse.
When that happens some home owners can't afford the mortgage on one income. Loan modifications are few and far between and so are short sales. Some home owners have tried everything and every program and there isn't any help and they can not pay. It seems that the bank would rather take the loss than modify the payment or entertain a short sale, and even if they do say yes to the short sale they may not say yes to an offer so that the sale can take place.
What about all those people who were given loans on terms under which they couldn't sustain ownership? Loan modifications are just Option ARMs in disguise. The people who can't afford their homes are going to sell eventually. Banks are hoping that not all of them decide to sell at one time, so they are doing whatever they can to drag out the liquidation process and hopefully get prices up a bit to increase their recovery. When the people chose to default when an unsustainable loan modification is available, I argue that default is accelerated and not strategic.
Walking away may be the only option, but keep in mind that the foreclosure process is slow. It can take a year from the last payment until the bank owns the home. A person could live rent free for six months to a year before they had to leave — giving them some time to pack and to save some money. It may mean the difference between years of struggling to come up with enough money and having little money for anything else like home repairs or food, and being able to make a fresh start and have a life again.
The more banks allow delinquent owners to squat the greater this incentive becomes.
Like I said when I started, I never thought I would write anything like this but now I get it. I have talked to people who have tried everything. They have called the bank many times, they have checked into various programs designed to help distressed home owners and there isn't any help. There is help for some but not for all. Programs that teach money management are nice, but there are some who simply don't have enough money to manage.
This may all sound wrong, but there have been so many foreclosures that I don't think it has the stigma it used to have. It may hammer a credit rating, but again — with so many foreclosures — I suspect the time will come when lenders will need to loan money to people who have gone through a foreclosure. I understand that a home loan is a legally binding contract but if there is no money, there is no money, and banks could modify loans or be more cooperative with short sales.
This is the other compelling truth about strategic default: banks will not make people wait five years before they loan them money again.
With the way things are today I don't think it is a good idea to try and save a home at any cost. It just doesn't make sense anymore. On the other hand I have no respect for people who walk away just because they owe more on the home than it is worth when they can afford to make the payments. I made payments on my home for at least three years when the value was less than what we owed and never would have considered walking away because it is my home. We bought it so that we would have a place to live and raise our children.
It is a difficult distinction to make between the truly ruthless default and the merely accelerated one. It is certainly much easier to feel empathy for the accelerated default because these people could never sustain home ownership. There is a dignity in choosing your own time rather than being subject to the whims of bankers and legislators. In contrast, the ruthless defaulters won't get much sympathy from anyone. What criteria separates the two groups? Who decides? It is possible to embrace one and reject the other?
Do you see a distinction between ruthless (strategic) default and accelerated default?
You should never loan money to friends.
Today's featured property is one of those that should have cured their loan or sold their property before it became a short sale.
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The property was purchased on 10/12/2006 for $2,146,000. The owner's used a $1,488,100 first mortgage, a $212,600 second mortgage, a $100,000 private-party third mortgage and a $345,300 down payment. I imagine it is quite unpleasant to endure a short sale after losing a hefty down payment.
Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 05/06/2010
Document Type: Notice of Sale
Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 08/14/2009
Document Type: Notice of Sale
Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 07/29/2009
Document Type: Notice of Sale
Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 04/27/2009
Document Type: Notice of Default
The third mortgage is likely what holds up any sale. There are no provisions for third mortgages in any of the government programs, and it is likely a personal friend of the owner… well, at least there were friends.
Irvine Home Address … 27 MOMENTO Irvine, CA 92603 
Resale Home Price … $1,800,000
Home Purchase Price … $2,146,000
Home Purchase Date …. 10/12/2006
Net Gain (Loss) ………. $(454,000)
Percent Change ………. -16.1%
Annual Appreciation … -4.7%
Cost of Ownership
————————————————-
$1,800,000 ………. Asking Price
$360,000 ………. 20% Down Conventional
4.84% …………… Mortgage Interest Rate
$1,440,000 ………. 30-Year Mortgage
$365,948 ………. Income Requirement
$7,590 ………. Monthly Mortgage Payment
$1560 ………. Property Tax
$400 ………. Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos)
$150 ………. Homeowners Insurance
$251 ………. Homeowners Association Fees
============================================
$9,951 ………. Monthly Cash Outlays
-$1566 ………. Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax)
-$1782 ………. Equity Hidden in Payment
$668 ………. Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes)
$225 ………. Maintenance and Replacement Reserves
============================================
$7,496 ………. Monthly Cost of Ownership
Cash Acquisition Demands
——————————————————————————
$18,000 ………. Furnishing and Move In @1%
$18,000 ………. Closing Costs @1%
$14,400 ………… Interest Points @1% of Loan
$360,000 ………. Down Payment
============================================
$410,400 ………. Total Cash Costs
$114,900 ………… Emergency Cash Reserves
============================================
$525,300 ………. Total Savings Needed
Property Details for 27 MOMENTO Irvine, CA 92603
——————————————————————————
Beds: 5
Baths: 3 full 1 part baths
Home size: 4,672 sq ft
($385 / sq ft)
Lot Size: 7,203 sq ft
Year Built: 2006
Days on Market: 26
Listing Updated: 40324
MLS Number: P736846
Property Type: Single Family, Residential
Community: Tustin Field
Tract: Othr
——————————————————————————
According to the listing agent, this listing may be a pre-foreclosure or short sale.
Beautiful Upscale home. Sale is Subject to lender approval. A True must see.
As opposed to the False must-sees on other MLS listings, right?
Many of you received an email that appeared to come from me asking for money to help me in London.
I'm sorry for this odd request because it might get to you too urgent, but due to the situation of things right now, I'm stuck in London United Kingdom right now, i came down here on a short vacation and i was robbed, my bags, cash, cards and my cell phone were stolen off me at GUN POINT, so i only have access to my emails, it was such a crazy and brutal experience for me and i was hurt on my right hand, but i'm glad i still have my life. I need help flying back home, the authorities are not being 100% supportive, i have been to the embassy and the Police here in London, but they're not helping issues at all, but the good thing is that i still have my passport but dont have enough money to get my flight ticket back home and some bills settled, please i need you to loan me some money, i promise to refund it as soon as I'm back home. You can get it to me through western union, email me back so that i can give you details to send it to.
This is an email scam. My account was hacked, a duplicate account was set up at Yahoo, and the phisher sent out the emails from that account to my entire email directory. Over the last 3 years, I have answered a lot of emails, so I had an extensive contact list.
I received many concerned calls and emails from people on the list. Thank you all.
A couple of you even phished back to see if you could draw them out. If any of you were successful, let me know. We would all probably get a laugh out of the email exchange.
Well, I am offended that I didn’t get one of those ‘stuck in London without money’ e-mails from your friendly scammers. What, aren’t I good enough to be scammed?
“London United Kingdom”. So THAT’s where London is. I was wondering. Of course no American would ever write that they just ‘came down’ to London, since London is to the North of the entire US Mainland, including Wisconsin. Do you ever get the feeling that the people who write those scam e-mails are the same people who write the RE listings on MLS? Maybe the realtors moonlight in the scam business. Or vice versa.
I’d like to know if the $100,00 3rd was recorded the same day as the purchase money 1st & 2nd, or shortly thereafter.
Lender’s insist (and request in writing) that help with a downpayment be a gift with no expectation of repayment. Did they lie to the lender about the source of the $100k, and then record that “loan” after the purchased closed?
That would be a form of mortgage fraud…
Or the realtor put up the money…
Sure it’s risky, but think about it – you are a realtor competing against 1000s of other retards. Lenders have dp requirements which limits the # of buyers. If the realtor fronts the money and drafts a phony “gift letter” from relative – bada bing – realtor just created a buyer who normally shouldn’t get the loan. Transaction closes and an additional loan is put on the property to pay back the realtor. repeat process.
This results in many more closed deals per year for the realtor so risking the cash is well worth it.
finding these instances would be like shooting fish in a barrel. investigate every transaction where a loan was taken out within a few months of close of escrow and follow the paper trail. There would be some big time realtors and mortgage peeps who would go down BIG.
Any insiders who have seen this? I am willing to bet this, or something very similar, is rampant.
And anybody reading this who has participated – you are an asshole and as a taxpayer, I am sick of paying for your ability to weasel people into loans. And lenders, it’s not your money so i don’t see why you care but – get a brain morons – why is it so easy to scam you?
Unemployment Surges Despite Economists Worthless Predictions
AZDavidPhx,
Funny how bad news in burried and not linked to front page yahoo.com news.
Yahoo new format of linking to multiple sites before the actual article is getting to be irrating.
1984 has returned.
Notice in the news the BP to have fund for the little people. Then changed he means small business. What about all the folk out of work cause of the oil spills? Priority for the funds was to oil projects/business put on hold do to the spill. Sounds like more of the same old song and dance. How much of the $20 billion is BHO’s cut?
The Ministry of Information wants you to only care about BP right now and all of their evil doings. Nothing else is going on in the world. Just sit in front of your TV like a good little consumer and drool all over yourself while watching the High Definition live footage of the oil gusher 24/7.
I like Jim Croce. I remember when he died in a small plane crash. He had some beautiful songs.
And it’s bad, bad Leroy Brown
The baddest man in the whole damned town
Badder than old King Kong
And meaner than a junkyard dog
I’m sorry for this odd request because it might get to you too urgent, but due to the situation of things right now, I’m stuck in my home right now, i came down here on a short sale and i was robbed, my equity, downpayment, and my ego were stolen off me at modification failure, so i only have access to my emails, it was such a crazy and brutal experience for me and i was hurt on my entitlement, but i’m glad i still have my life. I need help modifying my loan, the authorities are not being 100% supportive, i have been to the bank and the loan officers here in no man’s land, but they’re not helping issues at all, but the good thing is that i still have my shirt but don’t have enough money to get my payments caught up back home and some bills settled, please i need you to loan me some money, i promise to refund it as soon as I’m heloc’d. You can get it to me through my Fannie, email me back so that i can give you details to send it to.
I’m sorry for this odd request because it might get to you too urgent, but due to the situation of things right now, I’m stuck in a 30 year mortgage right now and seriously underwater, i came down here on a short episode of irrational exhuberance and i was in house lust, my common sense, my financial future, unaffordable standard of living and my delusions of grandeur were stolen off me at BUBBLE BURST, so i only have access to my over-limit credit card, it was such a crazy and brutal experience for me and i was hurt on my ego, but i’m glad i still have my free rent as I squat with pride and blame evil bank. I need help paying back home, the taxpayers and renters are not being 100% supportive, i have been to the bank and the Congress here in Washington, but they’re not helping issues at all, but the good thing is that i still have my Mastercard but dont have enough available credit to get my flight ticket back home and some bills settled, please i need you to loan me some money, i promise to refund it as soon as I’m back home. You can get it to me through western union, email me back so that i can give you details to send it to.
David
(AZDavidPhx)
AzDavid: I can only help you out in the form of KFC gift cards, I hope it helps.
That was the funniest thing I’ve seen!
SB
My Dearest Lender Sir,
EMERGENCY!!!!!!!
I’m sorry for this odd request because it might get to you too urgent, but due to the situation of things right now, I’m stuck in an exploding loan right now that I never thought would have to be paid, i came down here on a short speculative venture and i was tricked, my pen, signature, consent and my pledge to repay were forced off me at GUN POINT, so i only have option to blame you, it was such a crazy and brutal experience for me and i was hurt on my FICO score, but i’m glad i still have my scapegoat. I need help cramming down my house loan, you are not being 100% supportive, i have been to the http://makinghomeaffordable.gov/ and called 1-888 995-HOPE, but they’re not helping issues at all, but the good thing is that i still have my house but dont have enough incentive to get out my checkbook and get my bills settled, please i need you write off some principal money, i promise to resume payment as soon as I’m back above water. You can get it back through TARP, email me back so that i can give you details.
David
(AZDavidPhx)
Those parodies are classics. Well done.
Does that listing win the all time irvinehousingblog.com “Realtor not even pretending to care” award?
I first thought that IR’s photo was a photo shop joke, but that really is the only photo.
The message got directed to my spam folder (gmail).
What kind of picture is that?
How does a home sell for $2.1M and have a tax value of $1.5M?
Irvine Renter: Have you given any thought to discussing how short sale prices occasionally seem too good to be true – and how that happens?
Here are two as food for thought.
The first is on Youtube and stated to be a Bank of America property: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/06/short-sale-agent-takes-advantage-of.html?utm_source=patrick.net
The second is in San Clemente: 8 Cantilena. Trulia shows this having sold in Dec, 2008, for $1.3M. It was sold short in Nov, 2009, for $577,500 and is now on market for $1.1M. It may have been a B of A property also. Here’s the Redfin listing:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Clemente/8-Cantilena-92673/home/4973683
Given the amount of time most short sales take, it’s hard to believe these properties didn’t bring higher bids.
That one has serious slope issues.
The bank wanted it sold and got rid of it for 577K.
The current owner is a flipper.
Thanks, Chuck. Interesting that no where in the listing description does the realtor mention anything about the slope problem. Sea Pointe in an expensive area; wonder if nearby houses on same slope also have problems.
Hi IR
Even me, with my broken English, can tell it is not your style. Not your language, not the idea of shoping around for money, and not your romantic little home-town to which you told us last week your were heading. Besides, I believe that you would have had the way to get to a phone and call the people you trust. Had I received the mail (I found it in my gmail-spam now) I would probably try to get in touch through your real mail. Hope no one got hurt. Many “Shadow Readers” like me would have tried to help.
Thank you for your support. I had others contact me with the same kind message.
One of my favorite time-sucking intarweb sites is “419eater.com”.
They answer these emails, exchanging data over time unti the thing falls apart. During their back and forth replies, they ask the scammers to authenticate themselves with unique photgraphs of themselves. They’ve had scammers take pictures with barrels of fish on their heads, or funny notes written. Admire their cheeky responses to scumbags of this sort. If you’ve got some time head on over and look at their methods and of course their gallery:
http://www.419eater.com/html/trophy_room.htm
As soon as my lottery check clears the bank, I’m sending 419Eater a big fat check.
My .02c
Soylent Green Is People
I.R. Does this mean I’m not getting my money back?
Will Irvine soon see a building boom?
http://www.ocregister.com/news/irvine-253843-development-city.html
“Our housing market put the economy into the recession and now will lead us out of the recession”
-Irvine Mayor Suhkee Kang
LOL! Kool-Aid quote of the day right there.
“Walking away may be the only option, but keep in mind that the foreclosure process is slow. It can take a year from the last payment until the bank owns the home. A person could live rent free for six months to a year before they had to leave –”
Actually, a person can live for YEARS rent free as a SQUATTER. Take my deadbeat neighbor for example (REALLY, please TAKE HIM); a public records search I did on ‘his’ property indicates the bastard hasn’t paid any property taxes since December of 2006. He currently owes $30.000 in back taxes. Considering the fact that most deadbeats like him usually stop paying property taxes ONLY after having stopped making their mortgage payments, in all probability he ALSO stopped paying his mortgage for an equal period of time.
Now with the current mark-to-model system of fraudulently appraising homes for what banks THINK they’re worth vs what they’re ACTUALLY worth, it is in the banks interest to continue to keep the losses OFF their books by allowing people to stay rent free in their house.
And that’s EXACTLY what they’re doing. That’s why I bought myself a house ..BUT in ANOTHER country and I paid it off in full already. THIS country is FINISHED and as far as I’m concerned the USA is a depressing SHITHOLE of fraud, lies and incompetence. Who the FOOK would want to buy a house here?
It’s a recoveryless recovery. lmao!
It says that the community is Tustin Fields, but this looks like Quail Hill to me.
PS: the U.S. is currently COOKING all the official data it releases. CPI, GDP, unemployment indexes; ALL are doctored & massaged in order to make them look pretty and acceptable. NY state recently took out a $6 billion loan from its pension fund in order to pay back ..its own pension fund. Several other states are doing the same. And the U.S. government is ALSO surreptitiously buying its own T-bills.
The fact is; the USA is INSOLVENT and anyone foolish enough to tie themselves to a 30 year mortgage under THESE conditions is only setting themselves up for FAILURE when the inevitable time comes when the federal government will start implementing NEW taxes to bleed homeowners dry. Expect Prop 13-like tax initiatives to go the way of the Dodo bird as the government desperately starts the shakedown.
Yahoo is crazy. This is their response to the offending emails:
If you are an individual being impersonated by a Yahoo! Mail user, I
will need a signed statement from you denying any involvement with the
account, as well as a copy of the email (including full Internet
headers) that is going out in your name. If you do not have an actual
email message, please give us a detailed explanation of why you believe
you are being impersonated. I will also need a copy of your photo ID.
If your company is being impersonated by a Yahoo! Mail account, I will
need a signed statement on company letterhead denying any involvement
with the account, as well as a copy of the email (including full
Internet headers) that is going out with the company name.
No, it is automated reply from robot.
Those requirements don’t sound very crazy to me.
They are just trying to make sure you are making a valid claim.
Would you send them your photo ID?